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dejann

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  1. Melbourne City -3/4 @1.96 & o2.75 @2.02 Min price to bet: -3/4 @1.90 or -1 @2.21; o2.75 @1.97 Model +value: yes Significant team news: cm Aiden O'Neill still out for MC, he's been out since early Apr; cb Topor-Stanley and cm Krhin out for WU (oldie am Diamanti also out, but he's been out since mid-Feb) Note: AUS A-league Grand Final, played in Melbourne. Just 4 points between the two at the end of the regular season, however quality difference is higher and this price, that may look way too low as it's one leg final, should actually be lower. Melbourne City are by far the best AUS team, but they did slow down a bit after exhausting ACL tournament in Thailand (6 games from 15th to 30th Apr at +30/35c avg) and also had to play several league games without their internationals (4 AUS intls in the squad) during the season, which resulted in some below par performances and results. Still, they have won the Premier's Plate (finished 1st in reg season), with their +22 goal diff also best in the league, and they finished with best shots diff and corner kicks diff, 2nd best sh tgt diff. Western United had all those diffs negative despite finishing 3rd and they have truly ridden their luck at times this season, especially in terms of conceded goals, as either their goalie Young played a hero or there was wasteful finishing from the opponent, and their 30 conceded goals, which is 2nd lowest in the league, is simply misleading number. However, Western Utd are good at creating and finishing chances, there is interesting offensive talent, and in cf Prijovic they have one of the in-form strikers in the league. Melbourne City have won none of 3 reg season games against WU, and that is another reason for the underdog to be optimistic ahead of this clash - however, in 1-0 loss at Western Utd in Jan, MC played with very weakened lineup, without their internationals; while in other two games, 0-1 defeat in Dec and 2-2 draw in Mar, MC dominated throughout and actually deserved to win both games, but in 0-1 loss it was WU's gk Young that had a spectacular game, while in 2-2 draw MC's backup gk Sutton was not very good (to put it mildly), though even with that in mind MC could've and should've won but they were very wasteful with chances. Just in those two hth's, MC have outshot WU 43-15, on target 13-5, shots inside the box 27-9, hit post/bar 2-0, xG 4.0-1.3.No team problems for MC tomorrow, all big guns are in, they will unleash their best poss side and if they perform at standard level, WU will probably need some luck and gk heroics again, to survive. WU will set-up defensively, they don't like to have much of the ball anyway (finished with 2nd lowest ball poss% in A league) and prefer direct style with counter attacks, but with their quality up-front they should be expected to score here, and we like both hcap and TG for this one, with small pref for hcap. Melbourne City about 61% to win in reg time, with TG 3.05+, ok weather conditions.
  2. Vissel Kobe dnb @1.93 Min price to bet: dnb @1.86 or -1/4 @2.23 Model +value: yes for current price, small for min price Significant team news: - (cm Barada doubt for Shonan, fw Osako back for Kobe) Note: Two bottom-placed teams, both with 1-4-8 after 13 rounds, and while Shonan were expected to struggle, ACL participant Kobe def do not belong in the basement. 2 encouraging games in the last week for them, 4-0 home win vs Tosu and then narrow 0-1 home defeat against champions Kawasaki, with late injury time goal preventing Kobe from winning a point. Shonan have won their J League cup group, but things are not going so well in the league, they are still win-less at home as well and we make them bigger underdogs here than current prices suggest. Kobe at 43% for us, small pref for overs at current o2.25 204ish, but not enough for a pick. Ok weather in Hiratsuka, with some occasional rain. Kawasaki -1/4 @2.00 Min price to bet: -1/4 @1.95 Model +value: yes Significant team news: cm Songkrasin and lb Noborizato still out for Frontale (with long-term injured cb Jesiel and cm Oshima) Note: The reigning champions Kawasaki have won their last 4 J1 games without conceding a goal, no problems for them even after exhausting ACL group-stage tournament in Malaysia, however while they have no new injuries, it is expected that their first 11 will be a bit weaker for this game against Sagan Tosu, with at least 2 of standard attacking trio Damiao, Marcinho and Ienaga starting only on bench (possibly even all 3), with some further rotations possible in midfield and defence as well. Our min price includes this possibility, however it doesn't look like it's reflected in market prices so if this rumor gets confirmed once starting lineups are announced (that's usually 115-120 mins b4 kick off in J1), Kawasaki price should actually improve. While their 11 could be weaker, let's not forget that the likes of cf Chinen, cm Schmidt or Frontale legend fwd Kobayashi would easily be the first choice in most J1 clubs. Sagan Tosu are having a very good season, they are 5th and last week's defeat at Vissel Kobe was only their 2nd loss; they are still unbeaten at home where they conceded only 2 goals in 5 games. This should be tight and low-scoring game between teams who like to have control of the match with high ball possession percentage, but ultimately Frontale's quality should prevail and we would give them around 47-47.5 to win. Ok weather.
  3. Miami-Boston Date:17.05.2022. Sport: NBA Start time: 02:30 cet Pick: MIA-2 @1.90 Bookmaker: Pinnacle Stake:1 unit Teamnews: adv BOS 1, if Smart will play(Lowry doubt / Smart quest) Model: BOS 6.2 209.4 / BOS 1.6 195.7-nubers inc playoff games Robo number: MIA 4 210 Final number: MIA 3 210- Smart in; MIA 4.5 211- Smart out Picks: MIA -2 @1.90 Comment: Date Team H Team A SchTPts SchHC SugTPts adjTPts SugHC 17/05/2022 Miami Boston 209.4 -6.2 218.2 209.4 -6.2 numbers inc playoff games: Date Home Away SchTPts SchHC SugTPts adjTPts SugHC 17/05/2022 Miami Boston 195.7 -1.6 203.9 195.7 -1.6
  4. Genk -1/4 @1.86 Min price to bet: -1/4 @1.80 or -1/2 @2.06 Model +value: yes for current price, small for min price Significant team news: Genk with a clean bill of health, Gent still without cf Depoitre, cb Torunarigha and cm Hjulsager Note: Belg UECL playoffs, this is a must win for Genk, any other result would mean that Gent are winners of this group and that there will be no UECL playoff final between the winner of this and 4th placed team in Champ Group; as Gent have already secured UEL through Cup win, so 4th placed from the other group (that will be Antwerp) would get a ticket to UECL directly. Kudos to Gent really, they have started as lowest motivated team in this group, having just won the Cup before the first game here, but 3 straight wins and 5 pts better points start because of reg season placing, means that they are now 4 pts ahead of Genk. Still, it is only Genk they have lost to, and that extra motivation that Genk will have in this game could be pivotal, as even if Gent's results have been good, their performances were not very convincing, and 2 wins from last 2 games, both against Mechelen, were quite lucky indeed. It will be quite hot in Genk tomorrow which puts us off from TG overs a bit, though game set up is such that TG 3.10++ certainly makes sense. Both teams have scored twice in each of Genk's last 3 games, 2 of those had some true late drama and some very late disallowed goals as well, this one could follow the suit, but at current prices we will stay away from overs and stick to hcap only.
  5. Atalanta +3/4 @1.90 Min price to bet: +3/4 @1.86 or +1/2 @2.13 Model +value: no, negative Significant team news: - (nothing new important; cf Zapata could be back for Atalanta after missing the last game) Note: 2 rounds to go, Milan need just 4 points to secure the Serie A title, superb season for a team that wasn't even in top 3 favorites back in September. Still, this won't be an easy game, Atalanta have plans of their own and are motivated to qualify for Europe next season, UECL at least, but UEL is still within reach as well, with them, Roma and Fiorentina all level on 59 points. It will be quite hot in Milan today, even during the game temp will be a bit higher than players would prefer. The hosts could well live with a draw here, as in last round they will play against talented, but 'unmotivated' Sassuolo, and this game v side from Bergamo definitely seems trickier, at least on paper. Atalanta have lost none of their last 7 away games at Milan (last defeat in Jan 2014) and we would give them 50% to remain unbeaten tomorrow, though no real opinion on where market could move, perhaps this price could improve some more.
  6. Luzern dnb @1.95 Min price to bet: dnb @1.83 or -1/4 @2.18 Model +value: yes Significant team news: first choice lb Cipriano suspended, cf Wesley injured for Sion; key cm Ugrinic suspended for Luzern, he is their (by far) best rated player this season, assist leader and top scorer Note: Very important game, 4 points between the two with 3 rounds to go; with a win Sion could clinch a survival, Luzern increase their chances to avoid relegation playoff game; with Grashoppers just 3 pts away. The visitors are better team but had lots of problems this season, they are in better form now though, 3-2-1 in last 6 in the league, with 2 straight wins, the only defeat was against Basel, in game that was played 3 days after their exhausting and emotional Swiss Cup semifinal defeat to Lugano (extra time, then penalty shootout). During this good recent run, Luzern have posted some very good stats as well, in last 5 games they are the best in the league in shots diff at +10.2 and shots on target diff at +3.8; both these cats are positive for them after 33 games (only YB, St Gallen and Basel have both these also positive). Sion are pretty much where they deserve to be, if anything they were a bit fortunate so far and we believe they should be +1/4 dogs here. They perhaps have more points, but they have scored less, both from open play and set pieces, conceded more goals, created much lower number of big chances, fired far less shots on tgt. Weather will be ok, Luzern at 43-43.5% for us, though only 1 win in 16 road games this season is certainly not encouraging.
  7. Cagliari dnb @2.30 Min price to bet: dnb @2.20 or +1/4 @1.83 Model +value: yes for current price, flat/zero for min price Significant team news: - (nothing new important) Note: Incredible run by Salernitana, who we confidently expected to be relegated at this stage, but 4-1-0 run in last 5 means they are now just above the red zone, with 1 point more than Genoa and Cagliari. As usual with these kind of late runs, they had quite a bit of luck, not only in games but also with opponents having their minds elsewhere, most notably Fiorentina (with Cup tie vs Juve) and Udinese (heavy rotation in tight schedule spot), but credit to Salernitana for taking advantage of those situations and for scoring goals really, some of those, like winner at Udinese, very late indeed. Cagliari are in real trouble now, they have lost 7 of last 8 and this is almost a must-win, if we look at the schedule after this game, for the remaining two rounds: Salernitana play Empoli and Udinese, who are both safe and play for pride only; while Cagliari's next opponent is league's best team Inter who are fighting for the title with their arch-rivals. These two played 1-1 draw in Caglari earlier this season, with Salernitana equalizing in 90th minute, of course - completely against the run of play, using again one of their many lucky moments from this season. However, due to wholesale changes they have made during the January transfer window, there could be max 2-3 players from that team in tomorrow's starting 11. xPts has Salernitana 2nd from bottom, 7 pts behind Cagliari who 'should be' above the relegation zone, however it's of no consolation to the Sardinians, who will have to show their best tomorrow. We agree that the hosts should be small favs here, but for us it's lower than the market suggests and while their run is indeed impressive, this will be their 3rd game in 6 days, with Cagliari having a full week to prepare for it.
  8. Toulouse o3 @2.05 Min price to bet: o3 @1.87 or o3.25 @2.15 Model +value: yes Significant team news: league's top scorer cf Healey out inj for Toulouse Note: Toulouse have clinched promotion a couple of rounds ago and with a win here they would be crowned Ligue 2 champions, which is also a target now. Nimes are in mid-table and have nothing to worry about, so even if Toulouse have achieved their main target, it is the hosts who have the motivational edge in this game; and it's not just for the Fra2 title, but also to celebrate it in front of their own fans, as this is their last home game of the season. Realistically, draw will do it for Toulouse as their goal diff is so much better than Ajaccio's, but in case the Corsicans win at Grenoble, it would still prolong official crowning for one week. With all that in mind, we have also considered Toulouse hcap here, current -1.5 @1.96ish looks ok, it's actually fine for model (75%, wb1 21%) even without added motive-factor; but we're reluctant to go with 2 picks for this one, and TG seems like a 'cleaner' choice, even for model. Nimes have scored in each of last 4, they have won 3 in a row and even if last week's 3-1 at Nancy was completely against the run of play, it's obvious that freedom they have since clinching survival suits them well. Toulouse had a brilliant season, offensively they are probably one of the best Fra2 teams ever, their league-high 80 goals scored (2.2 per game!! unheard of in Ligue 2) is massive 23 more than the next best; and while they have slowed down a bit in last few weeks, we expect them to put on a show in this last home game of the season. Ok weather. Dijon o2.75 @2.09 Min price to bet: o2.75 @2.03 or o2.5 @1.83 Model +value: yes Significant team news: Note: Ok weather, another friendly game here, mid-table Dijon against relegated Nancy. The hosts are enjoying these last few weeks with more relaxed approach, each of their last 5 games finished with at least 3 goals scored and there was a total of 20 for massive 4.0 gpg; while the visitors are coming of one of their better performances of the season, as they outplayed and out-chanced Nimes, only to lose the game 1-3, completely against the run of play. It was a truly good Nancy performance, they have created numerous opportunities, big chances, wasted them all thanks to combination of some superb goalkeeping, lack of focus and bad luck as they hit the bar early on as well - really really should've been a couple of goals up in the first half, but lost it with Nimes scoring from their first effort in dying minutes, that wasn't even a half-chance. Second half was more open but it was still Nancy who were dominating and certainly deserved more from the game. Encouraging performance, and we def expect them to play in same style here, which would guarantee good game dynamics and plenty of action and chances. TG 3.00+ here, a touch higher than model, but good confidence in it, in fact we would have no complaints for 3.10-3.15 either.
  9. Elfsborg -3/4 @2.04 Min price to bet: -3/4 @1.96 Model +value: yes Significant team news: - (nothing new important) Note: Degerfors are the only Allsvenskan team without points so far, terrible 0-0-5 start for them and the only category they are the best in the league is the number of saves per game, which stands at massive 5.8, whole 2.2 higher than next 'best'. While their urgency to get some points on the board is great, we wouldn't give them more than 40% to achieve that tomorrow against strong Elfsborg side. The visitors have started the season with 2-2-1 record, which is good enough only for 8th place at the moment, but they have been perhaps the best team alongside Hammarby so far. Their huge +10.4 shots diff is the best in the league, they also created the league-high 13 big chances and are 2nd in xGls for at 10.4 and also in xGls against at 3.2; with both their defeats against the run of play, especially 1-0 away at Helsingborg; and they also out-shot and out-chanced champions Malmo in 1-1 away draw. Elfsborg have kept most of their starters from last season, in which they finished 4th, but only 4 pts behind champions Malmo, and it will be no surprise to see them fighting for top 3 again. They beat Degerfors in both league games last season, annihilated them 5-1 in the Cup game this March, and the way they've been playing it will be a surprise if they don't score at least 2 goals tomorrow. Weather will be ok, we are quite close to TG overs as well, but price is not quite there, perhaps an update tomorrow before noon.
  10. Celta dnb @1.86 & o2.25 @1.90 Min price to bet: dnb @1.80 or -1/4 @2.15; o2.25 @1.87 or o2.5 @2.16 Model +value: yes Significant team news: The hosts with problems in defence, first choice cbs Duarte and Diaz and rb Quini are all suspended, lb/lwb Neva and cb Torrente Navarro still out injured Note: Ok weather in Granada, the hosts could be a touch more motivated here, but Celta are not completely safe yet and we expect them to be focused. Granada managed to scrape out a 0-0 draw against Pathetico Madrid in last league game, in which they faced 22 shots, but 21 went off the target! Their defence will be a lot different tomorrow, as 3 of their starting back 4 from that game are suspended; and they actually have 4 out of starting back 5 unavailable here (when they go with 5 at the back). Not good, not against talented Celta attack, and we make the visitors 43-43.5% tomorrow, with TG at 2.65+, both likes are at about same level, no real pref between the two picks.
  11. Guingamp o2.25 @2.00 Min price to bet: o2.25 @1.93 Model +value: yes Significant team news: first choice cbs Oniangue and Cisse both out for visitors; cm Diarra suspended for the hosts. Some other players out on both sides, nothing important Note: Ok weather tomorrow in Guingamp, 7th against 8th in what should be a good game between two teams that can't reach the playoffs but are in good form, both with 4-3-1 in last 8. With just 3 round to go, the best position both can hope is 6th, and there is really zero reasons for either of the two to be passive or defensive minded in this game, it should be relaxed end-of-season type of match. With Caen missing their centre backs, team news favor the hosts, however it also adds positives for TG, which we like more in this case and believe that 2.60+ is the min number to go with; possibly 2.65-2.70 also fine for this one.
  12. Villarreal -1/4 @1.90 & o2.5 @2.05 Min price to bet: -1/4 @1.80 or -1/2 @2.06; o2.5 @2.00 Model +value: yes Significant team news: - (this game is sandwiched between Villarreal's CL semifinal games against Liverpool, so heavy rotation for the visitors expected) Note: Ok, Alaves badly need to win this, they are massive 7 pts adrift of safety with only 5 rounds to go. Villareal have their game of the season on Tue, return leg vs Liverpool, but their chances for CL final are very low after 2-0 defeat in the first leg, against a team that is miles ahead of them anyway. Still, Emery will likely do something similar to what he did a few weeks ago when he made 11 changes to the starting lineup vs Bilbao, before CL 1/4 finals return leg with Bayern. There were 7-8 changes in the lineup vs Getafe as well, that was a game after return leg in Munchen and before midweek game v Valencia; so in tight schedule spot. In those 2 games, Villarreal played 1-1 v Bilbao and won 2-1 at Getafe, this 2nd game was quite impressive actually, and the truth is that Villarreal's 2nd 11 would still be in top 10 in Primera. The visitors' heads may be focused elsewhere, but the changes that Emery will make should actually help the team and we make them 51.5-52% to win tomorrow. If this game was played a few weeks ago and without CL distraction, we would have Villarreal close to 60, around 58.5-59%, so this is quite a deduction. TG overs also look ok, model is very high and Alaves just can not live with a draw here, neither should Villarreal if they want to catch a train for UEL, which is certainly better than UECL. We would go with 2.80 as min, and also, quite an interesting h2h regarding goals here - all of last 10 between the two went over 2.5 line, with both teams scoring in 9 of 10. Ok weather.
  13. Antalya -3/4 @1.97 Min price to bet: -3/4 @1.93 OR -1 @2.27 Model +value: yes Significant team news: - (nothing new important) Note: Fine weather conditions tomorrow and decent chance for the hosts to continue their remarkable run - they are unbeaten in their last 11 games in the league, with 6 straight wins and 8 wins in last 9. Antalyaspor are the form team in TUR Superlig since Feb and now just 4 pts behind 4th placed Basaksehir and UECL qualif. Kayseri are 12 pts above the red zone and basically safe, 5 defeats and just 1 win in last 7 league games, undeserved 2-1 at relegated Goztepe; and for Kayseri it's all about the Turskih Cup now; they are in the semifinals and just lost the first leg at Trazbon 1-0 on Tue, with a very late goal. The hosts should be more motivated, more hungry here, with visitors' mind elsewhere, and even though the price is far from spectacular, at 60.5-61% estimated chance for Antalya win, it's still good enough for a shot.
  14. Nantes o2.75 @2.15 Min price to bet: o2.75 @2.08 or o2.5 @1.87 Model +value: yes Significant team news: key cb Pallois and key cm Chrivella out injured for Nantes, backup/rotation wng/fw Coco suspended; cb Gregersen the latest player to drop out for Bordeaux Note: It will be quite rainy in Nantes tomorrow, certainly not ideal conditions during the game, but game should be good, watchable; with relaxed hosts who are safe in mid-table but can't fight for Euro cups (through league position); and are without their key centre-back and key defensive player in cent mid position; and the visitors who are motivated in their fight against relegation, but have plenty of problems especially in cb area and are unable to keep a clean sheet.. well, they managed it once this season, in 0-0 draw at Lille, in a game in which they created zero chances and finished with miserable 0.06 xG; while allowing 22 shots to Lille, with 4 big chances and final xG number above 3! St Etienne have 4 points more, but Bordeaux have this game in hand and potentially easier opponents in last 4 rounds, plus Clermont, Troyes and Lorient are also in the mix and could get in the trouble, especially if Bordeaux win tomorrow. Nantes have their big game of the season in a couple of weeks, Coupe de France final against Nice and there is a danger they neglect their league games soon, so even if -1/2 around 186-187 on them seems a bit high, we wouldn't touch it, def believe they will need to score 2 to win this game anyway, so even from that pov overs seems a better choice (currently for o2.5 line average is 1.91); we have TG at 2.95 for this one.
  15. Boston-Brooklyn Date:17.04.2022. Sport: NBA Start time: 21:30 cet Pick: BOS-4.5 @1.98 Bookmaker: Pinnacle Stake:1 unit Schedule: neutral Teamnews: adv BRK 1 , total +1.5 (R. Williams out / Simmons out, Harris out) Model: BOS 12.7 219.9 Robo number: BOS 6.5 220 Final number: BOS 5.5 221.5 Picks: BOS-4.5 @1.98 (min price BOS -4.5 @1.91) Comment: Date Team H Team A SchTPts SchHC SugTPts adjTPts SugHC 17/04/2022 Boston Brooklyn 219.9 12.7 229.1 219.9 12.7
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