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Japan J1 2022


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Vissel Kobe dnb @1.93

Min price to bet: dnb @1.86 or -1/4 @2.23

Model +value: yes for current price, small for min price

Significant team news: - (cm Barada doubt for Shonan, fw Osako back for Kobe)

Note: Two bottom-placed teams, both with 1-4-8 after 13 rounds, and while Shonan were expected to struggle, ACL participant Kobe def do not belong in the basement. 2 encouraging games in the last week for them, 4-0 home win vs Tosu and then narrow 0-1 home defeat against champions Kawasaki, with late injury time goal preventing Kobe from winning a point. Shonan have won their J League cup group, but things are not going so well in the league, they are still win-less at home as well and we make them bigger underdogs here than current prices suggest. Kobe at 43% for us, small pref for overs at current o2.25 204ish, but not enough for a pick. Ok weather in Hiratsuka, with some occasional rain.

 

Kawasaki -1/4 @2.00

Min price to bet: -1/4 @1.95

Model +value: yes

Significant team news: cm Songkrasin and lb Noborizato still out for Frontale (with long-term injured cb Jesiel and cm Oshima)

Note: The reigning champions Kawasaki have won their last 4 J1 games without conceding a goal, no problems for them even after exhausting ACL group-stage tournament in Malaysia, however while they have no new injuries, it is expected that their first 11 will be a bit weaker for this game against Sagan Tosu, with at least 2 of standard attacking trio Damiao, Marcinho and Ienaga starting only on bench (possibly even all 3), with some further rotations possible in midfield and defence as well. Our min price includes this possibility, however it doesn't look like it's reflected in market prices so if this rumor gets confirmed once starting lineups are announced (that's usually 115-120 mins b4 kick off in J1), Kawasaki price should actually improve. While their 11 could be weaker, let's not forget that the likes of cf Chinen, cm Schmidt or Frontale legend fwd Kobayashi would easily be the first choice in most J1 clubs. Sagan Tosu are having a very good season, they are 5th and last week's defeat at Vissel Kobe was only their 2nd loss; they are still unbeaten at home where they conceded only 2 goals in 5 games. This should be tight and low-scoring game between teams who like to have control of the match with high ball possession percentage, but ultimately Frontale's quality should prevail and we would give them around 47-47.5 to win. Ok weather.

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