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Everything posted by Mrsha

  1. Troyes +1/4 @1.91Min price to bet: +1/4 @1.83 or dnb @2.15Model +value: yesSignificant team news: Experienced dm Gonalons doubt to start for Clermont (but he is in the squad for tomorrow), wng Allevinah out, rb Zeffane also still out; Troyes' first choice rb Balde unavailable due to sicknessNote: Clermont are in mid-table with respectable 10 points after 7 rounds, but they have heavily relied on heroics of their gk Diaw, who has been performing like a man possessed recently; being their clear man of the match in last 3 games (0-0 at Strasbourg, 2-0 win v Toulouse, 1-0 loss at Marseille), and impressing in 1-0 win v Nice earlier this season as well. Theit 5.8 xG is the worst in Ligue 1; same goes for 15.6 xG against (but they conceded only 10, thanks mostly to their hero between the posts), and only toothless Ajaccio have created less big chances. Troyes are no world-beaters, they have 3 points less and are certainly a relegation candidate, but they look like the better side, and we can't really make Clermont favs in this game, it's about 50-50, perhaps with 0.5-1.0% advantage to the hosts, so at current prices we make the visitors a clear bet for tomorrow, in this low-profile Ligue 1 game.
  2. Sittard o3.25 @2.07Min price to bet: o3.25 @2.00 or o3 @1.75Model +value: yesSignificant team news: first choice cb Nieuwpoort out for the visitors (injured in last game)Note: Fortuna Sittard and Excelsior have very high goal averages in their games after first 6 rounds; 4.2 gpg and 4.5 gpg respectively; and while these numbers should be lower come the end of a season, we like the look of goals in this match, and 3.25 line with price above 2.00 seems acceptable. The hosts are in much worse position, with just 1 point after 6 games, despite scoring in 5 of them, but that first point came in last week's draw in Nijmegen, so morale is up and they will fancy their chances for first win here, against Excelsior side, who are in high 7th place, but were very lucky to have 3 wins so far; with all 3 coming against the run of play, especially the opening game at Cambuur, which they won 2-0 despite allowing 27 shots, 12 of which were on target, massive 19 from inside the box and finishing xG for opponent of super-high 3.97! That was their only clean sheet so far, and based on the way they play and chances they concede, we wouldn't be surprised if it proves to be their only clean sheet until the end of a season. High TG 3.55 for us here, weather should be ok though some showers are possible during the match.
  3. St Truiden -1/4 @2.11Min price to bet: -1/4 @2.02 or dnb @1.70 or -1/2 @2.35Model +value: yesSignificant team news: -Note: Backing low-scoring side like St Truiden on minus hcap is always difficult, we've already both mentioned and done that once this season though, and are happy to do it again in this game, fully expecting them to outsmart Zulte Waregem here. The hosts will likely go for it, in attempt to get out of relegation zone before this international break, which should play directly into hands of the visitors and their large Jap contingent. After an opening 2-0 win v Seraing, Waregem are winless with only 2 points from last 7 games, though their schedule was very difficult as they played top 5 JL teams (Brugge, Antwerp, Genk, Gent, USG) during this bad run. The problem is that all their defeats were fully deserved and most of those should've been with a bigger margin, while both draws were lucky, and they've especially shown problems in last 4 games, on both sides of the pitch, creating very little and allowing chances at an alarming rate. St Truiden don't win many games, but they have lost just 2 this season, and actually, just 2 in last 17 Jupiler league games, stretching back to last season, none of those losses were on the road, as they are unbeaten in 10 straight away league games, winning 5. Again, minus hcap is always a problem for low-scoring sides, but with half stake back in case of a draw, we like the visitors as odds-against option.
  4. Fulham dnb @1.93Min price to bet: dnb @1.83 or -1/4 @2.18Model +value: yes, strongSignificant team news: first choice lb Robinson doubtful for Fulham (wng Wilson still out); cb Niakhate still out for NottinghamNote: Nottingham Forest were the big spenders this summer, with 20+ new signings and >200m gbp spent on new players, they have basically a completely new squad, save for a few players, and while this is still a big club and big name, the return to EPL won't be easy despite all the money spent. Fulham are another newly promoted side, but they have shown so much more on the pitch in first 6 EPL games, not only that they have collected 4 points more, despite arguably more difficult schedule, but in terms of general play they have looked like a mid-table EPL side, while Forest played on ECH level so far. With current large base of quality players the hosts should improve over time, but at the moment we see the visitors as touch bigger favs than market suggest, 42.5-43% aw in our est, suggesting that price on Fulham should be lower. This one is probably worth a watch for neutrals, the atmosphere in stadium should be fantastic. No real opinion on price movement tomorrow, the performances so far are one thing, however Forest do have their backers, they are the bigger 'name' and fancy pick to do well due to all the investment made.
  5. Trabzonspor -1/4 @2.11 Min price to bet: -1/4 @2.05 Model +value: - Significant team news: - Note: Both teams with undeserved losses in first round, and both in quite poor form overall. Trazbzonspor have won just 1 of their last 7 competitive games, losing their key rw Visca to injury in early Aug was a clear blow, but they also sold key cf Cornelius a few weeks ago to FCK, bringing in Maxi Gomez as a high-profile replacement. They are not weaker than last season (except for Visca's injury) as they also brought in some quality players from La Liga this summer (mid Bardhi and cb Bartra); however with all of Galata, Fener and Besiktas stronger this year, it will be hard to defend Turkish title. Red Star have also considerably slowed down in recent weeks, just 2 wins in last 7 competitive fixtures, 3 straight below-average performances in the weak Serbian league, that painful loss to Monaco in a game in which they actually played quite well, but again gifted a penalty to the opponent, it was literally a gift as there was no danger whatsoever, but it is the trademark of most of teams from this region anyway, a general lack of concentration and, why not say it, some plain stupidity from individuals. Red Star are also stronger than last season and they still feel the pain from failure to qualify for UCL group stage, as they had a favorable schedule and certainly were favorites against Maccabi Haifa; but again, they made some silly mistakes and gifted Israelis a lucrative UCL participation. Not much between these two sides at the moment, but Trabzon do have home advantage and we would make them a bet at prices above 205 -1/4. The betting market does not like Trabzon this season at all, with prices moving against them almost by default; not sure if that will happen tomorrow though as there was a substantial early move on Red Star already. Price on overs should improve, and could perhaps be of interest, though the problem is that this could be a very heated game with quite a few cards, possibly a red card as well, which is never good for goals... but let's see where is the market tomorrow. Ok weather. Freiburg -1/4 @2.13 Min price to bet: -1/4 @2.07 or dnb @1.71 Model +value: - Significant team news: - Note: Olympiacos almost got a point at Nantes last week, despite showing nothing on the pitch, being outplayed for 90 mins with lucky own-goal at the start of 2nd half making it 1-1, and late winning goal for Nantes was fully deserved. Another bad performance followed in domestic league, they rotated heavily but were still expected to beat Volos, only to draw 1-1, which means they have won only 2 of their first 11 competitive games this season. Freiburg are flying high in Bundesliga with 4-1-1 after 6 rounds, they beat Qarabag 2-1 last week to get the first 3 points in UEL, and they are clearly in much better shape. However, they had a very demanding game (physically) against Gladbach on Sun, and with another important league game coming up in 3 days against Hoffenheim, there is a danger that coach Streich could rotate a bit more heavily here. Now, Freiburg have a solid depth and many players of similar quality and characteristics, so unless wholesale changes are made, it should still be fine. Olympiacos won't spare anyone here, this is key game for them and they will field what coach considers their best poss 11 without a doubt, so in terms of attitude towards this game, the Greek champs do have an upper hand; and in case Streich opts for very heavy rotation, this price on the visitors could sky-rocket, but we are happy to take a risk on current price as well, it already allows for 3-4 changes in Freiburg's 11. Potentially huge coup in transfer market for Olympiacos, as they are just about to announce the signing of Colombian intl superstar James Rodriguez, though it remains to be seen in what shape he is... if it's ok, he will help this team a lot, but in any case he won't be available tomorrow. Malmo +1 @1.86 Min price to bet: +1 @1.80 or +3/4 @2.14 Model +value: - Significant team news: first choice cb Moisander and cm Christensen are out for Malmo after first half injuries in last game v Norrkoping, mid Rakip is still out as well; for USG rwb Nieuwkoop is likely out Note: Union SG with brilliant win at Union Berlin last week, Malmo with a home loss against Braga; and while the Belgians are big favs here, we would give them 56-56.5% to win, so believe that at current prices there is ok value on Malmo. Union SG are a good, smart team, perhaps not as strong as last season when they almost won the title in Bel; but they are not too far off - however, they are more suited for games where they don't have to create and attack, which they will probably have to do against Malmo, as Swedish team is likely to be defensive here. Moisander may be 37yo, however he is still an automatic first choice when available, so we have to assume this will be a weaker Malmo defence; while mid Anders Christensen is also a first choice when fit; and with a couple of other players missing Malmo do not have favorable team-news here, but we did move USG win up for that, and it should be covered in 56%. 2-1 win over Norrkoping on Sun is a big boost, they were down after only 3 mins but found their way back, created a TON of chances, could have and should have scored five, efficiency was again missing, but at least they did get the win and travel to Belgium with their tails up. Bodo o3 @1.93 Min price to bet: o3 @1.87 or o3.25 @2.15 Model +value: - Significant team news: key fwd Pellegrino still out for Bodo Note: It's a real shame that this brilliant Bodo side almost certainly won't win the title in Norway this season, they've done so much good for both them and country and football in general in last couple of years; but heavy schedule, some injuries and a bit of luck for their main rivals Molde mean no UCL for them next season, they were so close to group stage this year, with Dinamo Zagreb prevailing in extra time in playoffs final. Full focus for Bodo on this UEL game, they would have prioritized it regardless of situation in the league, european nights are always big for them, especially at home, and this should be another one. Zurich are in dreadful position in Swiss Superleague, no wins and just 2 points after 8 games, but they've shown some really good stuff against Servette on Sun, never should've lost that game - they were actually the better of the two, had more initiative, hit the post at 2-2 (of course), then got the needless red card 20 mins from time and conceded a goal for 3-2 with last kick of the game in 96th minute. They are likely to play this game with a freedom and without a pressure they feel in Superleague, they have more than enough offensive weapons to create here, especially on counter-attacks as Bodo are expected to be v aggressive and offensive, dominant in possession in Zurich's half; and while we don't like the chances of Swiss reigning champs to avoid a loss here, goals should def be on the menu, 3.40-3.45 est TG. This price should drop tomorrow, in case this doesn't happen and it improves, it would almost certainly mean some late negative team-news. Rennes o2.75 @2.01 Min price to bet: o2.75 @1.95 Model +value: - Significant team news: Rennes still without a few players who would be in contention for 11 or first options off the bench (wng Doku, fwd Kalimuendo, cb Omari), but it's the same squad as in last couple of weeks, except that cm Santamaria is now out injured Note: Rennes rotated heavily in Cyprus last week, leaving their main offensive guns on the bench; and since they play Marseille on Sun, they may rotate heavily again here - but with this being a home game against strongest opponent in the group, it's quite possible Rennes won't mess around as much this time around, especially as we also have international break coming up after this weekend. The hosts scored five against Auxerre on Sun, they were a joy to watch and also managed to keep a clean sheet for the first time this season; however it is highly unlikely they will achieve that against this strong Fenerbahce side, who have played 10 games since their UCL qualif.loss against Dinamo Kiev, and scored at least 2 goals in 8 of those; and the only two in which they failed to do that were return leg v Slovacko in UEL playoff finals, in which they rotated heavily after easy 3-0 win in 1st leg, and league game at Konya, in which they were reduced to 10 men after only 20 minutes. Both to score here, in good, dynamic game, though price is nothing special really, and could perhaps improve tomorrow.
  6. We disagree on Freib TG, Stevie But ok, always good to have different views, cheers & GL! Freiburg o3 @2.04 Min price to bet: o3 @1.97 Model +value: yes, strong Significant team news: cb/dm Itakura suspended for Gladbach, lw/fw Plea injured Note: Ok weather and good game expected here, TG 3.30-3.35 for us. It is a fact that Gladbach played 3 low-scoring games in a row, but there was a huge element of luck in first two, 1-0 win v Hertha and 1-1 draw at Bayern, with chances wasted, posts hit and penalty missed in first one; and gk Sommer making Bundesliga high 19 saves (!) in Munchen. Even last week, 0-1 v Mainz was not a true refection of game events, Gladbach really should have scored, they wasted 3 big chances and hit the post, but early 2nd half red card to Itakura basically killed the game, with Mainz taking advantage in the end. Freiburg's last home game v Bochum didn't go as we anticipated, at least not in terms of number goals scored, as it ended 1-0 despite some crazy scenes and chances, posts hit, miraculous saves and incredibly high final xG (5.20 combined!)... hopefully higher efficiency tomorrow! Freiburg are in UEL, they beat Qarabag 2-1 on Thu and travel to Greece to meet Olympiacos next Thu, but are not expected to rotate here. Btw both meetings last season were quite bizarre and both produced 6 goals. Union Berlin dnb @2.19 Min price to bet: dnb @2.13 or +1/4 @1.81 Model +value: no, small negative Significant team news: cb Doekhi out for Union (he has started last 3 and played well, but came into 11 only after injury to cb Leite, who is available again); cf Siebatcheu is back in the squad; rb Schmitz and fwd Uth still out for KOln Note: With Bayern, these are the only two unbeaten teams in Bundesliga this season, it may stay like that after this game but we make it a clear 50-50 shot and like current prices on Union Berlin as underdogs. Both are playing well and both are participating in Europe, with Union losing their home game v Union St Gilloise 0-1 in UEL, and Koln drawing 1-1 away at Nice in UECL; both games on Thu. It was not a good performance by Union at all, but perhaps it is Koln who spent more energy and had a bit more emotional game, with thousands of traveling fans supporting them in Nice - if anything, we would say that Koln are in small disadvantage here compared to Union, due to that game on Thu, considering the circumstances (trip to Nice, fans, enthusiasm for European game), and the visitors could be sharper tomorrow - they have scored 2 goals in each of last 3 Bundesliga visits here (last 3 seasons), and are unbeaten with 2-1-0 (plus they won all 3 home games for 5-1-0 overall record in last 3 seasons), hopefully a trip to Koln will be fruitful for them yet again. Model does not like this, but is not aware that Koln had some 'luck' with first half red cards to Schalke and Leipzig, and then early 2nd half red card to Stutgart, so man-advantage for them for quite some time in 3 of 5 BL games so far. That was c/p from our site, I'll add one from Ger2 in this topic at PL as well - no separate topic for this league, and perhaps better not to open it for one game, so will just throw this here: Darmstadt -1/4 @1.90Min price to bet: -1/4 @1.83 or -1/2 @2.11Model +value: yesSignificant team news: -Note: Just 2 points between these two teams, and only 1 defeat for both - however, we strongly like Darmstadt at these prices, after what they've shown last season and also what they've been showing this season so far, they have to be rated as one of the promotion candidates. Kaiserslautern are a bigger club and they don't lack ambition, but quality at the moment is not really there, they were quite lucky to get this many points and should be expected to slow down in the near future. If you look at shot and shots on target differential after 7 games, Kaiserslautern are quite negative in both, and 3rd worst in shots diff in BL2; while Darmstadt are strongly positive and 3rd best in shots diff. Darmstadt's performance last week v Bielefeld (1-1) wasn't good, though it was still tough to concede 94th min equalizer, but other than that and 1st game of the season at Regensburg, they have pretty much impressed with their play and also got a huge 2-1 win at title-favorites HSV a few weeks ago. Kaiserslautern is not an easy place to visit, but we est Darsmtadt at 51-51.5% to get 3 points tomorrow.
  7. Sagan Tosu +1/2 @2.07Min price to bet: +1/2 @2.00Model +value: yesSignificant team news: - (Cerezo's cm Harakawa out for season, inj early Aug)Note: 6th vs 7th, Cerezo have 1 point more, but also 2 games in hand and in case of a good run they can still hope for ACL qualification, so perhaps have a small edge in motivation here, as realistically Tosu can only hope to better their high 7th place finish from last season. However, this could be a difficult game (psychologically) for Cerezo after they suffered two defeats in shocking manner in last 7 days. First they lost at Sapporo in J1 last Sat, after they were the better team for most of the match and entered the final 5 minutes with 1-0 lead, only to concede in last min of inj time for 2-1 defeat, and this came literally 30 secs after they had a chance to go 2-1 ahead. A few days later, on Wed, they had a big 1/4 final game in Emperor's Cup v Hiroshima and pretty much the same happened - the difference was that it was basically an even game, but Cerezo were 1-0 up until 86th minute, when they conceded the equalizer (same min when Sapporo equalized a few days earlier); and then conceded in 91st again to lose the game 2-1. Very, very painful for Cerezo, and they played their best 11 in both these games, so even if this game v Tosu is important, there could be some rotation due to energy spent and possible psychological issues. Sagan Tosu are a decent side anyway, difficult to play against, as while they do not create that many chances, they are very good in possession and they do defend well, quite aggressive without the ball (2nd in J1 in possession won in final third, behind high-press masters Hiroshima). Sagan had a full week to prepare for this game, and while Cerezo Osaka are favs, it's not >47% in our view.
  8. Malmo o2.5 @1.95 Min price to bet: o2.5 @1.90 or o2.75 @2.14 Model +value: - Significant team news: first choice gk Dahlin out inj for Malmo; first choice centre backs Tormena (suspended) and Niakate (injured) are out for Braga, they have started all 5 games this season (rw Medeiros suspended as well, but that's no big deal) Note: Malmo with disastrous season so far, for their standards and ambition, this EL group stage is the only good thing really, after they beat Sivasspor in UEL playoff finals; but early elimination from UCL qualifiers against Lithuanian side Zalgiris and their league campaign in Allsvenskan, where they are only 7th, massive 11 points behind leaders Hacken, can only be described as terrible. It is a fact they have been unlucky in the league, they should've won more points and really should've scored more goals, if you look at the number of chances and big chances created, also their xG, but it's also a fact they have failed to control the games against teams of lower quality, stability was missing, not only efficiency. Braga are simply on fire at the start of Portuguese Superliga, they are 2nd with 4-1-0 record, the only unbeaten team with Benfica so far, and they have scored a league high 18 goals (!), with at least 3 in first 4 games, only for Vitoria Guimaraes to trouble them in big derby this Sun, where Braga needed a late inj time goal for 1-0 win (though they missed a pen early in 2nd half). Both teams have their old coaches back in charge - Malmo appointed Age Hareide as head coach this week, he has led them before to Allsvenskan title and UCL group stage participation; while Braga have Arthur Jorge in charge this season, he never really left the club after he was a head coach in 2020, but coached Braga's B team, and also worked with youth team and u21 team in the past several years, so he knows Braga inside out, to say the least. Both teams are expected to give this competition a go, and while the league is of course very important, neither have a high profile game this weekend, so something close to best 11 should be expected from both, especially from the hosts. Malmo used to be a tricky opponent at home for bigger sides in the past, they had some big results here, but something is missing in this current squad and Braga are deserved favs, but they are missing 2 first choice centre backs and price on them is not tempting to us, though they are def not the team we want to oppose at the moment. TG look interesting, Braga's team-news are supportive here and Malmo should really take advantage of this situation, but keeping Braga at bay is something else and difficult to imagine - we would go with TG 2.90-2.95 and believe there is enough value in current offer, but also believe price for o2.5 could go above @2.00 tomorrow once the market opens even more, for bigger stakes. Nantes -1/4 @2.12 Min price to bet: -1/4 @2.06 or dnb @1.75 (in theory, dnb @1.70 is also ok on our numbers, it's sort of equivalent to -1/4 206 in this case, but we wouldn't really go for dnb at such low-ish price, so putting 175 as official min, though in general we are v unlikely to ever publish a pick with price lower than 1.80... always opting for higher/riskier hcap instead) Model +value: - Significant team news: Nantes welcome back fwd Simon and fb Merlin to the squad, they are in contention for first 11; Olympiakos are without injured midfielders M'Villa and A.Camara and suspended cb Ba, who are all first team regulars; plus planned fist choice rb Vrsaljko is still out inj, though rb Pipa Avilla is fine, and he has started regularly since early Aug.. from last season's successful UEL squad, they have lost cf Tiquinho, fwd/wng Onyekuru, cm M.Camara and their squad seems to be weaker than last season Note: Experience is the one thing that Olympiakos has as clear advantage in this game; their experience in playing in Europe is huge as they are regular participants in either CL or EL, unlike Nantes. However, the Greek champs are having a difficult summer with some below-par performances and failure in UECL qualifiers, in which they were eliminated early by Maccabi Haifa, despite a clear favorite tag; and then they struggled in UEL qualifiers against Slovan Bratislava and Apollon, teams they should normally beat comfortably over two legs, needing a penalty shootout against both to progress. Zero clean sheets for Oly in 6 qualif.games this summer, which is really poor considering the level of opposition. They managed to sign am/fw Pep Biel from FC Copenhagen at the end of Aug, and he should be a big signing for them, but otherwise there is an overwhelming feeling that this is an aging squad that needs to be refreshed with young talents more aggressively. We don't see them as better team than Nantes at this moment, and quite like the hosts at -1/4 here, although would not be surprised if this price improved tomorrow (dnb >180 would make sense). Still, happy to post this now and prevent overthinking tomorrow in case price moves in Oly favor. Nantes have played well in last few weeks in Ligue 1, completely outplayed both Toulouse (win) and Strasbourg (draw); even in 3-0 defeat against PSG on Sat they were fine, early red card really killed them, of course, but their heads didn't drop, they kept fighting and fired 10 shots in the end, 6 from inside the box - when you consider they were down to 10 men from min 25' against mighty PSG, that's not bad at all. Europa League is a big occasion for them and they are expected to field a strong team here, close to best poss 11, and it's Nantes at 44% to win for us... although admittedly Nantes are better/easier to be backed at plus hcaps rather than minus hcaps due to their style of play; but with half stake back in case of a draw this is good price for poss win.
  9. Benfica o3.25 @2.00Min price to bet: o3.25 @1.90 or o3.5 @2.15Model +value: -Significant team news: -Note: This line looks by 1/4 hcap too low; Benfica should create enough to score at least 3 on their own here, but we prefer overs to hcap as Maccabi Haifa have shown good quality offensively in qualifiers. While 4-0 at Olympiakos was the highlight of their journey, it is games against Red Star Belgrade in the playoff finals that probably painted a true picture of this team - they qualified after two eventful, chaotic games, but in both legs shown to be very vulnerable in defence, despite not playing too offensively, and they were conceding chances with ease from all situations - open play, set pieces, right, left, centre, slow build up, transition, take your pick - there was no stability and security whatsoever. On the flip side, they are a team that plays without a fear and will use any chances for quick transition, they also have good quality when it comes to set piece taking and long shots, so while we can see them conceding about 6-7 big chances tomorrow, we wouldn't bet on Benfica keeping a clean sheet, it's a fact that Maccabi have scored in all games that mattered this season, and to eliminate Olympiakos and Red Star, and score in all 4 games, is already an achievement. They calculated in 2nd leg v Cypriot champs Apollon, after winning 4-0 in the first leg, so that game should be ignored. Benfica are on a run of 9 straight wins in all comps this season, 14 if you include pre-season friendlies (that were played against some strong opponents like Newcastle, Fulham, Nice), they have scored at least 2 goals in 8/9 and at least 3 in 6/9 (13/14 and 10/14 if we count friendlies); but after keeping 4 clean sheets in a row they have conceded in their last 2 league games against relegation candidates Pacos Ferreira and Vizela. We have mentioned the new era with Rui Costa as president and offensive-minded Roger Schmidt as a head-coach in earlier notes, Benfica behaved as expected in our picks so far this season and we expect nothing different from them tomorrow, it should be high press and high tempo throughout the game on this big UCL stage, as they do not have a big game in the league this weekend (away to Famalicao). Ok weather conditions and good game expected, TG 3.65++ for us here; on 3.25 line this looks like a half-loss at worst.
  10. Nantes +1.75 @1.97Min price to bet: +1.75 @1.90 or +1.5 @2.15Model +value: yesSignificant team news: (fb Merlin, cf Simon and cm Sissoko still out for Nantes, but all players that were available vs Strasbourg are available tomorrow as well - PSG expected to rotate)Note: PSG have not rotated so far, playing their best poss 11 (or close to it; with top 3 superstars always included) in every game, but this game comes 3 days after midweek win in Toulouse and, more importantly, just 3 days before their big opening UCL group game v Juve... and UCL is PSG's key competition this season, yet again, and the big stage they will want to shine on. Nantes are a tricky opponent in any case, as they are a well drilled side; and while they also have a European game in midweek, in EL group stage, it's fair to assume they won't be resting players in home game vs the reigning champions, it's always a special occasion when PSG are in town, for any team in Ligue 1 really. Min prices to bet would depend on confirmed team-news and lineups here, assumption is that PSG will rotate, and we put 7-8 pts below current mkt avgs as official minimums, but in case the rotation is heavier, even lower prices would be ok, say +1.75 @1.80ish or +1.5 @2.02ish would do it. Lyon o3.25 @1.93Min price to bet: o3.25 @1.87 or o3.5 @2.10Model +value: yes, smallSignificant team news: - Note: Fine 3-1-0 start for Lyon, but they have conceded in each of those 4 games, despite playing 4 teams that are expected to finish in bottom 10, and actually, 4 relegation candidates. Angers games have been full of goals, cards and entertainment, 4 of their 5 league games have gone over 3.5 line with both teams scoring, they have conceded at least 2 goals in last 4, and only in the opening game of the season played a 0-0 draw v Nantes, but that one was also full of excitement and chances, it may have ended with 0-0 but final xG were 1.60-1.65, there were 30 shots in total, 20 from inside the box, 10 on target, with two goalkeepers dominating, especially Lafont in Nantes goal who won man of the math award. Lyon are heavy favs here, we agree it's 75%+ for them but wouldn't really count on them keeping a clean sheet, hcap for hosts looks good but we would need slightly better price, while overs off TG 3.70ish is a go, as we think it should be 3.5 line around @2.00 for overs.
  11. Genk -1 @1.86 Min price to bet: -1.25 @2.04 or -1 @1.75 Model +value: yes Significant team news: - (same squad for Genk as in last few games) Note: No reason to stop trusting Genk as long as the market is above our fair prices, they were impressive again last week, won only with 2-1 but it should've been by 3 goals really, they allowed almost nothing to Cercle, conceded out of the blue right at the start of the 2nd half, from what was only Cercle's 2nd shot from inside the box (they finished with 3; Genk had 14) and missed quite a few chances, it was especially amazing they failed to score from set pieces, especially corner kicks, from which they looked very very dangerous indeed, with 3-4 sitters missed. Seraing got a big 3-1 away win at fellow relegation candidates Eupen last week, their first points of the season, and while that will boost their confidence, the problem is that Genk are on another level at the moment, more than likely to bring their hosts down again. About 70.5-71% for an away win for us, Seraing have a narrow ugly pitch that is certainly not something better teams like too much; but that area is their only (small) advantage here. There is -1.25 @2.10 available at the moment, and while this is the hcap we actually prefer to -1 in this case, the problem is that vast majority of the mkt is on -1, so we will stick to lower and uglier price here. St Truiden -1/4 @2.01Min price to bet: -1/4 @1.90 or -1/2 @2.20Model +value: yes, smallSignificant team news: yes, quite a few problems for Mechelen, as they are without first choice gk Coucke, star lw Storm, cb/cm Lavalee, lb Bolingoli; rw Shved a doubt and their important duo from last season, am Mrabti and lb Bijker are both still out as well... first choice cf Hayashi is doubtful for the hosts (should be out)Note: We can say that Mechelen are severely weakened here, their team-news are truly poor, but they were in even worse situation last week and still somehow managed to beat Westerlo 5-4 (and they were 2-4 down with 15 mins to go), in a weird game that featured some terrible defending and goalkeeping. However, it's difficult to ignore these problems at Mechelen, let's not forget they also lost last season top scorer cf Cuypers to Gent this summer, and at this stage they don't look like the side who should challenge for UECL playofs. St Truiden got their first win of the season last week (1-0 at Oostende), but they lost only to Anderlecht this season, despite playing 2 other strong teams in Gent and Union SG; and actually, if we look back at last season as well, loss against Anderlecht was the only defeat St Truiden have suffered in last 14 league games. It's not ideal that cf Hayashi is (likely) out, but his other countrymen are all available, with Japanese legends Kagawa and Okazaki set to lead the line, and rwb Hashioka and gk Schmidt to start as well, as usual. We like the hosts at these prices, est hw at 48.5-49% after some adjustment for team news.
  12. Toulouse dnb @1.93 Min price to bet: dnb @1.90 Model +value: yes Significant team news: Note: Not much space here, as price on the visitors has dropped a bit today, but least it's still above our minimums. As expected, newly promoted Toulouse looked well worthy of Ligue 1 status last week, in first game of the season vs Nice which ended in 1-1 draw. Troyes, on the other hand, after a turbulent pre-season lost their first league game 3-2 at Montpellier, in what was chaotic display from both teams, and there seem to be some things going on behind the scenes at this club, with unrest and question marks of players' support for coach Irles, who only came to club midway through the last season. We have no doubts that the visitors are better of the two and that they will finish the season good distance above the hosts, and while it's still early days with form far from optimal level for both sides, 40.5-41% would be our min number for an away win. Marseille -1/2 @1.88 Min price to bet: -1/2 @1.85 or -3/4 @2.10 Model +value: yes Significant team news: Note: After some very poor results in pre-season friendlies, Marseille got off to a great start in the Ligue 1, with strong performance and 4-1 win over Reims; with star player Payet only on bench and newly signed wing-backs Tavares and Clauss both dominating their flanks. Brest have lost 3-2 at Lens; but they were simply shocking in the first half, lucky to lose it just 1-0, and only started playing after they were already 3-0 down midway through the 2nd half. It was a worrying performance, their 4th straight league defeat, stretching back to last season; and much better will be needed against last season's top away team (OM finished with superb 12-3-4 on the road) and the one that has started this season in impressive manner. About 56.5-57% for an away win here, good weather conditions. Both teams have scored in each of last 5 hth (last 3 years), all 5 games have gone over 2.5 line, and while the current price for overs does not look too bad, we would need higher to take it.
  13. Kashima dnb @2.01 Min price to bet: dnb @1.95 Model +value: yes Significant team news: - (Hiroshima with important 2nd leg of J League Cup 1/4 final next Wed, so rotation is expected here) Note: Two evenly matched teams, just 5 points between them, in Kashima's favor, though it is Hiroshima who look a bit stronger of the two at this stage. However, they are in the 1/4 finals of Jap Levian Cup and won their first leg vs league leaders Marinos 3-1 on Wed, playing their best possible 11 in that game. The return leg is in 4 days and the visitors are likely to rotate a bit here, def not expected to play with best 11. A few weeks ago they rotated heavily vs Shonan at home and it was clearly felt, so the Antlers will probably have a decent chance here to get back on winning track, after failing to win in last 4 in the league. It's a bit tricky as league is also very important for Hiroshima, however their Cup intentions seemed quite obvious and we do expect rotation to take place here. The Antlers were quite poor at Marinos last week, they probably should've lost with a bigger margin than 2-0; but this is still a quality J1 side and one that should fight for ACL place until the end of the season. We would go with 40%+ Kashima in this one, though admittedly there is a certain extra risk in this number as it does include expected weaker Sanfrecce lineup. Fine weather conditions, the Antlers have failed to create much last week in Yokohama, but they had a full week to prepare for this game and should be in good position to take advantage of Hiroshima's expected weaker 11. Urawa dnb 183 or -1/4 221 (at Nagoya) would be a clear pick in normal circumstances, however they played their best 11 a few days ago in a Cup game against the same opponent, while Nagoya rotated heavily with just 3 starters in first 11 - so now it's the hosts who should revert to their strongest 11, while the visitors could rotate a bit, and even though they have a strong bench and are unbeaten in last 8 in J-league, it should still affect their play, so we won't be touching them at this price.
  14. c/p from our site, price on Benfica overs has moved down in meantime but it may improve before kick off, so we leave notes for that one here as well: ............................................. Benfica o3 @2.09 Min price to bet: o3 @2.02 or o2.75 @1.80 Model +value: Significant team news: key cm Evander inj for Midtjylland Note: Benfica have lost a couple of attackers this summer, including star striker Nunez who was sold to Liverpool, but they brought in some young talents, have a new president in club legend (and Portugal legend) Rui Costa, and a new coach in Roger Schmidt, who joins after his contract with PSV expired a couple of months ago. Excellent coach with good, attacking football philosophy, his 2 year spell at PSV was a clear success despite no league titles won; as such a dominant Ajax side was still made to sweat for Eredivise last season, and also, PSV won the Cup against them and beat them before that in Super Cup as well. No doubt that Benfica will play much more attractive this season, they will play at a higher tempo and with lots of high press when not in possession; their pre-season friendlies were nothing short of spectacular, with 5 straight wins against decent sides, 2+ scored in all and at least 3 goals scored in last 4 (Newcastle, Fulham, Girona and Nice). Both teams have scored in each of Midtjylland's 5 official games this season (3 Den SL, 2 UCL) and 3 pre-season friendlies, and they got their first win last Fri at Odense, with emphatic 5-1 score, in first game after dismissal of head coach Henriksen - who was sacked at the airport after FCM arrived from 2nd leg of UCL qual prev round, which they won only after penalties, against Cypriot side AEK Larnaca. It was no wins in first 2 league rounds and no wins against limited Cypriots either, with penalty shootout needed to progress, along with missed opportunities last season, in which they failed to capitalize on numerous problems that main rivals FCK had, and finished as runners-up, though at least won the Danish Cup (on penalties against Odense). So two teams with new coaches (FCM with assistant coach Henrik Jensen as interim head coach at the moment), but we know exactly what to expect from sides coached by Roger Schmidt - PSV last season, or Salzburg, Leverk, Paderborn before that, even in China with Beijing Gouan he played a very attractive footie and got himself something of a cult-status among fans... after he was sacked, there were some incredible emotional scenes on the airport during his departure, with fans gathering in thousands to say good-bye to their beloved coach. Anyway, Benfica are ofc deserved strong favs in this tie, but FCM are not only a good side, but also have advantage of already playing 5 official games this season; while Benfica kept changing entire 11 at halftime of almost all their pre-season friendlies and actually, we have a pref on FCM hcap at current price (that was even better yesterday); but will just stick to TG bet, expecting a watchable game despite it's huge importance, est TG at 3.25-3.30. It will be hot in Lisbon tomorrow, but should be ok during the match with around 25c expected. No surprise if this price improves, we do like it but it's still a very important game and only the first leg. Dinamo Zagreb and Viktoria Plzen dnb hcaps both looked as picks yesterday, unfortunately the prices have moved quite a bit in meantime, and both are out of range at the moment... perhaps if mkt moves in other direction tomorrow, there is always a chance. Also, ugly counter-intuitive pick on Union SG against Rangers is also poss, the Belgian surprise package is weaker this season after losing 3 important players and coach Mazzu, and also, they can't play UCL games at their stadium, so no 'true' home advantage either (game will be played in Leuven), but Rangers have over-performed heavily in UEL last season and they are way overrated in general (in our eyes), so if market does go for them here, USG as home dogs are likely to be our choice tomorrow (unders also look quite ok, line is 2.5 with price 190ish; whereas it does feel as if line 2.25 with prices around 195 for both o-u is more appropriate here). So, possible update tomorrow, deadline 17h - unfortunately, limits are not better than in previous round; so overnight picks for UEL and UECL on Wed and Thu are less likely, it will probably be matchday picks/notes for both... for UCL though, we are still likely to have something for Wed published tomorrow evening. Update 14.40h: Dinamo Zagreb dnb @1.88 Min price to bet: dnb @1.83 or -1/4 @2.25 Model +value: - Significant team news: Dinamo's first choice cb Sutalo is out inj, so is backup cb Theophile-Catherine; while cf Petkovic is a slight doubt Note: Two Eastern European powerhouses, with Dinamo Zagreb and Ludogorets dominating their domestic leagues in last decade and also achieving some eye catching result in european cups. Very high ambitions this season as well, both are aiming for UCL group stage, but Croatians have the advantage in terms of quality and should really make it count. Bulgarian side has lost the step in last couple of years, their new signings have failed to replace players who have departed and while they didn't have the problems to dominate very weak Bulgarian league last season, they looked out of depth in EL group stage with Midtjylland, Braga and Red Star, scoring just 3 goals and winning just 2 points in 6 games. Largely the same squad as last season, no new important signings and actually a couple of regulars have left. They eased past Sutjeska in the preliminary round, but didn't impress vs poor Shamrock in previous round and almost got into trouble in the return leg; however Dinamo Zagreb were also far from impressive vs Shkupi and barely progressed, with form clearly far from optimal level at this stage. Croatians have lost a number of key players over the last couple of years, but they have always managed to sign good/proven players and produce new domestic stars, and judging from their transfer activity this summer it will be the same this time around. They are a bit shorthanded on cb position here and Sutalo's absence is not ideal, but cbs Peric and Lauritsen are both fit and ready and they have played many games together; and also, while cf Petkovic is a slight doubt after he got a knock in return leg against Shkupi last week, he is with the team and expected to take part in the game - and even if he doesn't start it wouldn't be a major loss, as both Orsic and new arrival Drmic are available and in good scoring form already. This is almost the same, albeit stronger team from one that impressed in EL group with West Ham, Rapid Vienna and Genk last season; and then troubled Sevilla in the knockout phase; and we make them 41-41.5% favs in this first leg in Razgrad. So, the price on Croatians has bounced back allowing for a pick on them, however that will be all from today's update as Union SG price is lower than yday and expected move on Rangers never happened (TG price did move quite a bit, in expected direction); and Plzen price kept going down, so much that we now actually pref Sheriff hcap in that game (+1/4 190ish)! Nothing else today, possibly evening notes/picks for Wed action later, if not - we will have something tomorrow for sure.
  15. Shimizu o2.25 @1.89 Min price to bet: o2.25 @1.85 or o2.5 @2.10 Model +value: yes Significant team news: Shimizu's lb/rb/rm Katayama is suspended, he is their 2nd best rated player this season; cf Junker still out for Urawa Note: Ok weather conditions in Shizuoka tomorrow, with a couple of showers. Neither of these two teams were involved in Emeperor's Cup games in midweek, and both come into this game after fine league wins last weekend, Shimizu 2-0 at Nagoya, Urawa 3-0 vs Tokyo at home. Clean sheet at Nagoya was Shimizu's first in 8 J1 games, but they have scored in 6th straight and their form seems to be going up; while Urawa have scored in each of last 5 J1 games and are fine 3-3-0 in last 6, good run which finally pushed them away from relegation zone, though their current mid-tab position is still far away from their ACL aspirations. No pref on the hcap market as we make Urawa 51-51.5% to win, however TG overs look good enough, est 2.70 as min; both should create enough to score, both teams are in top 5 in the league in big chances created, Urawa's averages of 1.19 gpg for and 0.90 gpg against are discouraging, but their xG stats suggest there should've been a lot more goals scored in their games (1.68 xG and 1.21 xGa) and that low 2.1 avg is likely to improve in weeks to come. Yokohama -1/2 @1.94 Min price to bet: -1/2 @1.90 or -3/4 @2.16 Model +value: yes Significant team news: - (cm Kida still out for Yoko) Note: After beating Tokyo 5-0 a couple of weeks ago, Sagan Tosu have suffered 3 straight home defeats, first two in the league, vs Kobe (0-2) and Kashiwa (0-1), and then they got knocked out of Emperor's Cup on Wed, after losing 1-3 against J2 team Kofu. Sagan did rotate in the Cup, but so did Kofu and it was a disappointing result for the hosts. Yokohama's 6 game winning streak in J1 ended last weekend vs Cerezo in Osaka, but their mood after the game wasn't bad at all, as they scored 2 late goals to win a point, and 2-2 draw meant it was 7th straight J1 game in which they have scored at least 2 goals. Sagan are normally a very tricky, disciplined opponent who also like to have the ball in their feet, they are 3rd in possession% in J1 this season and managed to win possession battle against reigning champions Kawasaki (2nd in J1 with 58%) as well, in 0-0 home draw earlier this season; but Marinos are leading the league with 62% poss avg and Sagan may have to play different kind of game here - this certainly does not look like an easy game to end their losing streak, and we make the visitors 55.5-56% to get the win. High temp in Tosu tomorrow.
  16. Jubilo Iwata +1.25 @1.87 Min price to bet: +1.25 @1.80 or +1 @2.09 Model +value: yes Significant team news: - Note: After a superb 5-1-0 run in J1, with 4 straight wins, Hiroshima truly disappointed on Wednesday at Gamba Osaka and deservedly lost the game 2-0. It was a poor performance with very little offensive ideas - Gamba's veteran gk Higashiguchi had to make only 2 saves and catch 2 crosses in 90 mins to secure a clean sheet; and while weather was truly unfriendly, with very high temperature affecting the performance, it is still not an excuse for what Hiroshima have shown. Schedule is congested now and Sanfrecce will play 5 games in next 15 days, 4 in the league and 1 cup, and as coach Skibbe's gegenpressing style is quite demanding physically, squad depth will be essential for success. They are not likely to rotate much tomorrow, but midweek game in difficult conditions is a minus for the hosts here, and so is the fact that heatwave is still terrorising Japan, with temp in Hiroshima expected to reach 36c tomorrow; which is a small bonus for an inferior Iwata team, expected to defend deep. The visitors are in the relegation mix, just outside the drop zone, level on 19pts with Avispa and Shonan, two teams that certainly have more quality than them, but at least form is not bad, with fine 2-1-1 in last 4 in the league, that included nice 1-1 draw at champions Kawasaki (with late equalizer, however also a post hit from nice chance a few minutes later, so almost a surprise win there in the end) and 3-1 win vs good Sagan Tosu side, the only loss in this mini run was against leaders Yokohama, while they also won 2 Emperor's Cup games in June. Iwata are among main relegation candidates, no doubt about that, and while Hiroshima are a genuine top 4 contender, we just can't make them above 62-62.5% for win tomorrow, so current hcap prices on the visitors look interesting. TG unders (we have TG at 2.60) is also a pref - but not strong enough at current prices. Yokohama -3/4 @1.97 & o3 @2.11 Min price to bet: -3/4 @1.88 or -1 @2.17; o3 @2.02 or o2.75 @1.80 Model +value: yes, v strong Significant team news: Not great for Marinos, as their top scorer, important cf Anderson Lopes is still suspended (for bizarre spitting incident), while their best rated player this season, first choice rb/lb Ryuta Koike and important cm Kida are both still out injured Note: Team news favors Shimizu here, but league leaders Marinos have won 4 straight J1 games (10-1 goal diff), all 4 without Anderson Lopes and last 3 without Kida and R.Koike; and also, this game won't be played in Shizuoka, but rather at Japan National Stadium in Tokyo, so Shimizu are only formally the hosts, it's neutral venue. Yoko's league leading position is deserved, they are among the favs for the title and they are performing at a high level, with their offensive depth a real strength - it's unmatched in J1, and their 2.0 gpg is a league best, despite numerous issues with availability of attacking players this season. Shimizu are in the red zone, but have to feel a bit unlucky so far in terms of points won and especially number of goals scored, it should've been higher than 19 in 18 games. While they are not as gung-ho as in the last couple of years, Yokohama still have to be considered as the most offensive side in J1, they lead most of offensive stats, including number of big chances created, the category in which Shimizu are at very high 3rd place at the moment, so this should in theory be a good game of football, and we quite like the look of overs as well; with est TG 3.25. Both picks will be up, however pref is for the hcap, super hot weather in Japan these day's won't help this game, it's gonna be 35-36c in Tokyo tomorrow, with real feel around 30ish during the match, so while our final TG number is lowered for high temp, it's certainly more speculative than in 'normal' circumstances.
  17. Famalicao o2.75 @1.96 Min price to bet: o2.75 @1.90 or o3 @2.17 Model +value: no, negative Significant team news: - Note: Last round, Braga are completely isolated in 4th place, massive 14 pts ahead of 5th Gil Vicente and with 9 less than 3rd Benfica; while Famalicao are 13th, however in case of a win today they would actually move 5 places and finish the season in very good 8th. That is a good incentive for the hosts, who will remain in 13th in case of defeat or a draw, so only the win would matter. Both teams are in very good form, Famalicao unbeaten in 4, with 2 straight wins; Braga unbeaten in 7, 6-1-0 with Porto and Benfica victims of their good run as well (Porto's only defeat of the season), no goals conceded in last 5 league games (and 4 wins with just 1 goal scored in each!). Still, it is the hosts who should be more motivated today, not only to try to reach 8th place but also as this is their last home game of the season, so while Braga -1/4 210ish would be tempting earlier in the season, today it's really not, we fully expect their defence to concede - actually, this zero conceded goals streak is a bit lucky anyway, they were outperforming xGa heavily recently, and their last 5 games in general should've produced 1.4 more goals per game. Ok weather and good, relaxed game expected where the hosts should try to get the win that would move them 5 places in the standings, and their task could be easier if, as rumored, Braga's first choice gk Matheus gets a rest in this game. Guimaraes o2.75 @1.96 Min price to bet: o2.75 @1.90 or o3 @2.17 Model +value: no, negative Significant team news: - (cb Mumin suspended and winger Rochinha out injured for the hosts) Note: Another friendly game in last round of Portugal, in this case both teams are locked in their curent positions, Guimaraes will finish in 6th, Gil Vicente in 5th place, the only thing that could change is points distance between them (6 pts at the moment). The hosts are pretty much where they were expected to be, the visitors for sure the biggest positive surprise of the season, and they were especially good on the road, only 2 defeats in last 3 games made their away record a bit more ordinary, but 7-6-3 is still superb and right behind the best 4 in Portugal. Ok weather and no pressure on teams, Guimaraes could be touch more motivated with this being their last home game of the season, however Gil Vicente are not expected to rotate much and this game should be a joy for neutrals, it usually is when these two meet: both teams have scored in each of last 7 h2h, all finished over 2.5 line, 5 of 7 ended over 3.5 line and 4 of 7 had both teams scoring at least twice. It's nice h2h for sure, and with this being the last game of the season, in which neither of the two can move up or down in the standings, another entertaining game is expected.
  18. Rennes dnb @2.06 Min price to bet: dnb @2.00 Model +value: yes Significant team news: - (key cb Aguerd is back for Rennes; cb Bade also finally back in squad, he was out since early Feb; first choice gk Gomis still out) Note: Two teams that have exceeded expectations this season; Rennes were expected to be good, but not THIS good; while Strasbourg are probably the biggest surprise, still in the battle for Champions League place, with only 6 rounds to go. Just 3 points between these two, in Rennes favor, but Nice are between them in the standings and Monaco in 6th are level on pts with Strasbourg, so it's really tight up there! Strasbourg are unbeaten in last 10, since Jan 23 and bizarre 4-3 defeat against Bordeaux; but while it's a great run, they did lose points to some relegation candidates and lower-mid table sides with draws. They have been involved in almost exclusively low-scoring games these last couple of months, with 9 of last 10 finishing under 2.5 line, 6 of 10 under 1.5... although to be fair to them, it doesn't look like their style or approach has changed much; only that they actually really improved defensively during this season. They could've been even better placed before this game, as they have conceded two very late goals in last two games against Lyon and Troyes, both times losing 1-0 leads to end the game in 1-1 draw. Rennes have been on fire since early Jan, well actually throughout the season, with some truly impressive offensive outputs; 69 goals scored is just 3 less than PSG's 72 (the next best is Strasbourg with 'only' 53); they are 2nd best in big chances created and the best in Ligue 1 in shots and shots on tgt diffs; however on Fri they suffered a damaging 2-3 home defeat against Monaco, one of their direct rivals. Their key cb Aguerd was unavailable for that game and with some other options also unavailable they moved cm Santamaria to cb position, to partner cb Omari, but that decision backfired. Aguerd is back now, ready for this game, and we make the visitors small favorites in Strasbourg, prices above dnb 2.00 are worth a shot. Ok weather.
  19. This is Ligue 2 fixture, but as there is not much action on forum perhaps better not to open separate thread for one game but rather post the pick here in Fra Ligue 1 topic. Guingamp o2.25 @1.98 Min price to bet: o2.25 @1.90 or o2.5 @2.19 Model +value: yes Significant team news: nothing new at Guingamp, first team regular cb/dm Roux still unavailable; some new suspensions at Pau though, key cb/dm Kouassi, cm Sylvestre and backup/rotation fwd Naidji are all unavailable; also still out is first choice gk Olliero Note: Fine weather and good game expected in Guingamp. The hosts are safe, far away from the promotion playoffs though, so they can play with even more freedom, and perhaps try to end the season in 6th place, it's only 2 pts away with 5 rounds to go. They are in good scoring form, no clean sheets for opponents in their last 6, and at least 2 goals scored in each of the last 4; but on the other hand just 1 clean sheet for them in last 7... and it should be 1 in last 8 after tomorrow's game as Pau have scored in each of their last 4, despite the fact all teams they faced are in top 6 and Ajaccio and Paris have probably two best defenses in the league (well, Ajaccio's 16 conceded in 33 games is truly amazing). With 42 pts Pau are actually not mathematically safe yet, though should survive even if they win no more points until the end of season. This is a side that probably should've been better placed by now, they certainly should've scored more goals, in fact they are 4th in the league in big chances created. Kouassi's absence is important, he is their key defender, he has missed 3 league games this season and 4 last season, they have conceded in each of those 7, solid total of 15 goals. Both to score, Guingamp likely at least 2, prices above 1.90 for o2.25 line def look ok.
  20. Fenerbahce o3 @2.02 Min price to bet: o3 @1.95 Model +value: yes Significant team news: important am/rw Kahveci suspended for Fener; first choice cbs Nukan and Angel still unavailable for Goztepe; first choice gk Egribayat a doubt (he has missed last 2) Note: Fener are chasing Champs League spot and finally overtook Konya in 2nd place after last round results. Superb form, 5-1-0 in last 6, at least 2 goals scored in each of 5 wins, the only draw was 1-1 with runaway leaders Trabzon. Goztepe are 12 pts deep in the red zone, their survival chances are negligible and they have the worst form in the league, with 9 straight defeats, in all of which they have conceded at least 2 goals. Fener hcap is probably also ok, but we prefer the goals in this one, Goztepe are not that bad offensively, 8th in Superlig in big chances created, the type of this game also suits goals perfectly, TG 3.35+ for us. Ok weather in Istanbul.
  21. Samp -3/4 @2.11 Min price to bet: -3/4 @2.03 or -1/2 @1.80 Model +value: yes, but small for our min prices Significant team news: - (nothing new important, cf Gabbiadini still out for Samp, cm Ekdal back in the squad but not certain to start and Danish talent Damsgaard finally back in the squad after loooong absence. Usual mess in Salernitana, it's really not worth going into details though slightly better situation for them than in recent weeks; compared to last game, first team regulars cb Fazio and am Bonazzoli are back) Note: Samp are in poor form, only 1 win in last 6 games, but it was a deserved 2-0 at relegation candidates Venezia, and we fully expect them to beat another relegation threatened team tomorrow. Salernitana are not a very good football team, to say the least, and even though they are not giving up hope, it is Serie B they will participate in next season (and probably struggle there as well, after another set of wholesale changes to the roster over the summer). Again, just like in Venice, experience of some of the Samp's key players should help them here to get a vital win. Very nice weather conditions in Genoa tomorrow. Udinese -3/4 @2.10 & o2.75 @2.03 Min price to bet: -3/4 @2.01 or -1/2 @1.80; o2.75 @2.00 or o2.5 @1.80 Model +value: yes Significant team news: fwd Beto out for Udinese, he is their top scorer with 11 goals; important cm Zurkowski suspended for Empoli, their 2nd best rated player this season Note: Ok weather in Udine tomorrow, though with some possible showers in the afternoon. Although a draw would not be a disaster here for either of the two, there is no reason for the hosts not to continue with their good run, they have put in some superb performances over last several weeks, 2 straight wins against relegation candidates and 3-3-1 in last 7 for them, in what was very difficult schedule that included games against Milan, Napoli, Lazio and Roma. They can't improve much in the standings, but perhaps can catch 9th or 10th place, their performances this season certainly merited more points. Empoli are in terrible form, winless since mid-December, 0-7-8 in last 15, but good number of points won in the first part of the season (mostly with lots of luck) means they are still solid 12 pts above the drop zone. They were one of the circus teams during that first part of the season, involved in quite a few shootouts, but it's completely different story in last couple of months, with binary-code looking results. Just 1 of their last 9 games went over 2.5 line, and in just 3/9 both teams have scored. Last 5 read 0-0, 1-0, 1-1, 1-0 and 0-0 so perhaps overs pick doesn't look great, but Udinese have found their mojo, scored in 7 straight and also, xG are showing that last 5 Empoli's games should've had more goals in it, +1.20 per game, so low-scoring run is more down to efficiency than lack of chances created. Still, if we had to choose just one of these two picks, it would clearly be the hcap, as in fact we are relying predominantly on Udinese for goals as well. TG price should improve some more; not so sure about hcap price movement, though expecting it to be lower tomorrow.
  22. Home Away h% d% a% jwb1% RawG aTG1m HpC ApC TotC Osasuna Elche 44.2% 30.0% 25.8% 26.3% 1.90 2.16 3.31 3.80 7.11 Real Sociedad Sevilla 36.2% 27.6% 36.2% 22.2% 2.27 2.39 4.97 3.43 8.40 Deportivo Alaves Huesca 27.8% 27.2% 45.0% 25.1% 2.23 2.37 4.24 4.50 8.74 Atletico Madrid Eibar 63.5% 23.0% 13.5% 28.8% 2.17 2.33 4.20 5.21 9.42 Real Betis Valencia 45.8% 23.5% 30.7% 23.0% 2.86 2.78 5.88 4.37 10.25 Cadiz Celta Vigo 29.9% 25.7% 44.5% 24.0% 2.47 2.53 4.05 4.14 8.19 Getafe Real Madrid 14.8% 25.8% 59.4% 29.6% 1.96 2.19 3.81 5.64 9.45 Levante Villarreal 30.2% 23.6% 46.2% 23.2% 2.82 2.75 4.43 4.51 8.95 * short v of model numbers, with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1; raw and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot) Sevilla dnb @2.10 in tricky away fixture against strong Sociedad team normaly would not be enough for a bet, but in current circumstances it seems like a good choice. Hosts have won just 3 points in last 4 games, top 4 finish is basically out of the reach, they pretty much have to win this game to stand any chance, but even then chances would be just theoretical. They won the cup couple of weeks ago, but just 1 league win in last 6 cost a lot and they can pretty much play for fun for the remainder of the season. Sevilla have better team news here and also still some hopes in title fight, CL spot almos assured especially if they avoid defeat today. Their form is fine with 4 wins in last 5, performance against leaders Atletico couple of weeks ago was superb and they should probably small favs today. Huesca dnb @2.08 also looks fine, they do have a couple of imp missings, but also clearly performed better than Alaves throughout this season, form is fine, confidence is up while struggling hosts failed to win in last 8 and may look at this as a must win game even with 8 rounds to go, which, if happens, would suit Huesca perfectly. Similar to game in San Sebastian, imo visitors should be favourites here. Importance of this game is huge, so goals cant look attractive by default, still over 2 @1.93 is good enough considering we expect hosts to be more open than usual in first 60-65 mins. Cadiz-Celta over 2.25 @2.00 is another recommendation, there is that danger that both can be happy with a draw, but the way both teams, especially Celta, have been playing lately, it is difficult to imagine this to be low on entertainment. Both should create enough to score, price on visitors (who are underrated by model) is also close to the level we would consider fine for shot, -1/4 @1.93 would do it, not miles away but unlikely to get there. Weather is fine for all games, dry with 14-15 degrees in Basque and sunny, 20ish in Cadiz.
  23. Home Away h% d% a% jwb1% RawG aTG1m HpC ApC TotC Spezia Crotone 48.9% 23.3% 27.9% 23.1% 2.96 2.91 4.99 3.04 8.03 Parma Milan 14.9% 19.1% 66.0% 24.6% 3.03 2.96 4.25 6.12 10.37 Udinese Torino 37.9% 27.6% 34.5% 22.2% 2.33 2.50 4.50 4.79 9.29 Hellas Verona Lazio 22.0% 24.7% 53.4% 25.6% 2.51 2.62 4.51 5.24 9.75 Sampdoria Napoli 17.9% 21.0% 61.1% 24.9% 2.90 2.88 4.14 5.40 9.54 Roma Bologna 60.5% 20.0% 19.5% 23.6% 3.24 3.09 7.37 3.04 10.40 Fiorentina Atalanta 13.3% 18.6% 68.1% 24.7% 2.98 2.92 3.24 5.13 8.36 * short v of model numbers, with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1; raw and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot) Quite strong preference for away favs this round, starting with Milan -3/4 @1.96 and over 2.75 @2.08 in Parma tomorrow. Big game for both, Parma looked dead and buried not long ago, it wasn’t just lack of points but performances were consistently poor, however they clearly improved, started scoring more, lost only 2 of last 7 and their fight against relegation is far from over. 2nd placed Milan have been playing like mid-table side for most of last few months, that superb start they had is pretty much wasted as far as title fight goes, however there is still Champs Lge to play for. Their injury situation is better than few weeks ago, away record sensational (12-1-1), they should have won more points in last 5 games than they did and at current prices are worth a risk here (our min to go for is -3/4 1.90, though it wont be surprise if current price actually improves). Parma have scored in last 8, no surprise if they keep it up, this game looks good for goals, though would not go below 2.00 for o2.75. Sunday, Napoli -3/4 @1.98 at Samp seems ok, this will be 3rd game in a week for visitors but they have good depth, so even after hard Juve game it should not be a big deal, and also - Napoli should be more motivated here, chasing CL spot, with hosts pretty much safe in mid-table. In Verona, Lazio -1/4 @1.88 is another away jolly that seems ok for bet. Hosts are well organized and pesky side, they have better team news here, however they are in safe waters and euro spots are far away as well, so stronger visitors should be more motivated, with fight for CL spots wide open in Italy this season. We still have 8-9 rounds to go, so maybe it is a bit early to give too much weight to motivation, but it is def creeping up now and will be more and more important in coming rounds. Verona and Sassuolo seem to be in no man’s land, so more relaxed and more open football from them is almost inevitable (Sass doing their part in last month already), but for this game v Lazio price on overs is just not tempting enough, would need o2.25 1.90ish to try it. It should be rainy weekend in northern parts of Italy, but not to the extent that affects games, and sat game in Parma may still avoid rain.
  24. Torino Sassuolo 39.3% 23.2% 37.5% 20.3% 3.13 2.98 5.37 5.80 11.17 * short v of model numbers, with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1; raw and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot) Toro-Sassuolo over 2.75 @2.04 – agreed with previous post regarding btw and overs, this should be a fine game, with Torino hungry for points, Sassuolo relaxed and seemingly back on track after some bad run and injury problems, neither should be happy with a draw. Visitors could keep some of their big guns on bench ahead of Inter game, but in general you can expect some better performances and def higher number of goals in their games until the end of season. Torino are in red zone now, but certainly deserve a lot better fate, they had some v good performances before covid problems postponed a couple of games, if they get to that level safety should be reached without much problems, despite situation not looking so good at the moment. Nothing on hcap before lineups here, however goals should be on the menu regardless of coaching decisions, down to over 2.75 @1.97 seems ok, but wouldn’t expect price to move much during the day anyway.
  25. 17th March games Home Away h% d% a% jwb1% RawG aTG1m HpC ApC TotC Avispa Fukuoka Kashima Antlers 18.7% 20.8% 60.6% 26.2% 2.61 2.61 3.95 6.57 10.52 Tokyo Shonan Bellmare 58.6% 22.8% 18.7% 27.3% 2.33 2.43 5.49 3.56 9.05 Urawa Reds Consadole Sapporo 25.6% 21.0% 53.4% 24.0% 2.94 2.82 3.76 5.61 9.37 Yokohama F. Marinos Tokushima Vortis 55.5% 19.5% 24.9% 23.3% 3.23 3.01 6.00 4.52 10.53 Cerezo Osaka Oita Trinita 48.8% 26.4% 24.8% 26.4% 2.13 2.29 4.75 4.62 9.36 Vissel Kobe Kawasaki Frontale 12.6% 13.3% 74.1% 22.0% 3.53 3.20 4.15 5.86 10.01 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Shimizu S-Pulse 57.5% 20.4% 22.1% 24.7% 2.89 2.79 7.41 4.39 11.80 Sagan Tosu Kashiwa Reysol 39.8% 26.4% 33.8% 23.2% 2.28 2.39 5.45 3.33 8.78 Nagoya Grampus Yokohama 61.0% 22.6% 16.5% 28.1% 2.24 2.37 4.67 3.71 8.38 * short v of model numbers, with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1; raw and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot) A few interesting choices this round imo. Model has Kashima at 60.5%, we are a little bit higher at 63%, so Kashima -1 @2.18 makes the cut. With this congested schedule in Jap new season there is always danger of heavier rotations, especially for away teams in midweek games, but Kashima are an elite Japanese team, who for much of last season looked like clearly 2nd best (no match for Kawasaki in this league though) – but poor 1-1-5 start n dome bizarre losses in last couple of months prevented them from qualifying for Champs Lge. They have big game v Nagoya next, so we can expect some rotations and perhaps after lineups get announced (unlike Europe/SouthAm, in Japan J1 and J2 you always have official lineups 2 hours before kick off) price can improve, but this is already fine for bet suggestion. Kobe-Kawasaki over 3 @2.00 also looks ok. Kawasaki are by far the best team in the league, they can rotate 5-6 players and lose nothing in quality, and in Kobe have an opponent who will have their fair share of attacks and chances created, so this should be a good game. 8 of their last mutual meetings, and 11 of last 12 ended over 2.5 line, 7 of those over 3.5 line, difficult to expect anything different this time, both should score, model has goals v high and current price is more than enough for us, would recommend it down to over 3 @1.93. Next one is Hiroshima -1/2 @1.93, they are one of many teams who have CL qualification as goal this season, they are well balanced side and should have good control over this game - would do this bet down to 1.87 (or -3/4 2.12). Shimizu somehow escaped with 0-0 v Tosu at home few days ago, in game that was thoroughly dominated by away side, in fact Shimizu looked like J2 material again, like they did in first part of last season. It could be just a blip, as they did improve a lot in 2nd part of last season and also started this one fine, but this last performance was just horrible, and unless huge improvement is made they will be in trouble tomorrow. Goals are also interesting, would like to get over 2.5 @1.95 for a shot, market is quite close. If not, low scoring 0-0, 1-1 or 1 goal first half and over 1.25 @1.91 as target price for overs. Urawa-Sapporo over 2.75 @2.10 is just about there, this price should improve a bit tomorrow so probably fine to wait, hcap for away side also looks tempting as it seems there is a bit of difference between these two, with former giants Urawa just not inspiring confidence. Actually it could get ugly for them this season, however going against them in this one unless it is -1/4 @1.95 or higher just does not feel right, and with price unlikely to get there it will be a pass on hcap. For all these games weather should be fine, sunny, pleasant temp and no rain expected.
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