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Mrsha

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Everything posted by Mrsha

  1. Famalicao o2.75 @1.96 Min price to bet: o2.75 @1.90 or o3 @2.17 Model +value: no, negative Significant team news: - Note: Last round, Braga are completely isolated in 4th place, massive 14 pts ahead of 5th Gil Vicente and with 9 less than 3rd Benfica; while Famalicao are 13th, however in case of a win today they would actually move 5 places and finish the season in very good 8th. That is a good incentive for the hosts, who will remain in 13th in case of defeat or a draw, so only the win would matter. Both teams are in very good form, Famalicao unbeaten in 4, with 2 straight wins; Braga unbeaten in 7, 6-1-0 with Porto and Benfica victims of their good run as well (Porto's only defeat of the season), no goals conceded in last 5 league games (and 4 wins with just 1 goal scored in each!). Still, it is the hosts who should be more motivated today, not only to try to reach 8th place but also as this is their last home game of the season, so while Braga -1/4 210ish would be tempting earlier in the season, today it's really not, we fully expect their defence to concede - actually, this zero conceded goals streak is a bit lucky anyway, they were outperforming xGa heavily recently, and their last 5 games in general should've produced 1.4 more goals per game. Ok weather and good, relaxed game expected where the hosts should try to get the win that would move them 5 places in the standings, and their task could be easier if, as rumored, Braga's first choice gk Matheus gets a rest in this game. Guimaraes o2.75 @1.96 Min price to bet: o2.75 @1.90 or o3 @2.17 Model +value: no, negative Significant team news: - (cb Mumin suspended and winger Rochinha out injured for the hosts) Note: Another friendly game in last round of Portugal, in this case both teams are locked in their curent positions, Guimaraes will finish in 6th, Gil Vicente in 5th place, the only thing that could change is points distance between them (6 pts at the moment). The hosts are pretty much where they were expected to be, the visitors for sure the biggest positive surprise of the season, and they were especially good on the road, only 2 defeats in last 3 games made their away record a bit more ordinary, but 7-6-3 is still superb and right behind the best 4 in Portugal. Ok weather and no pressure on teams, Guimaraes could be touch more motivated with this being their last home game of the season, however Gil Vicente are not expected to rotate much and this game should be a joy for neutrals, it usually is when these two meet: both teams have scored in each of last 7 h2h, all finished over 2.5 line, 5 of 7 ended over 3.5 line and 4 of 7 had both teams scoring at least twice. It's nice h2h for sure, and with this being the last game of the season, in which neither of the two can move up or down in the standings, another entertaining game is expected.
  2. Rennes dnb @2.06 Min price to bet: dnb @2.00 Model +value: yes Significant team news: - (key cb Aguerd is back for Rennes; cb Bade also finally back in squad, he was out since early Feb; first choice gk Gomis still out) Note: Two teams that have exceeded expectations this season; Rennes were expected to be good, but not THIS good; while Strasbourg are probably the biggest surprise, still in the battle for Champions League place, with only 6 rounds to go. Just 3 points between these two, in Rennes favor, but Nice are between them in the standings and Monaco in 6th are level on pts with Strasbourg, so it's really tight up there! Strasbourg are unbeaten in last 10, since Jan 23 and bizarre 4-3 defeat against Bordeaux; but while it's a great run, they did lose points to some relegation candidates and lower-mid table sides with draws. They have been involved in almost exclusively low-scoring games these last couple of months, with 9 of last 10 finishing under 2.5 line, 6 of 10 under 1.5... although to be fair to them, it doesn't look like their style or approach has changed much; only that they actually really improved defensively during this season. They could've been even better placed before this game, as they have conceded two very late goals in last two games against Lyon and Troyes, both times losing 1-0 leads to end the game in 1-1 draw. Rennes have been on fire since early Jan, well actually throughout the season, with some truly impressive offensive outputs; 69 goals scored is just 3 less than PSG's 72 (the next best is Strasbourg with 'only' 53); they are 2nd best in big chances created and the best in Ligue 1 in shots and shots on tgt diffs; however on Fri they suffered a damaging 2-3 home defeat against Monaco, one of their direct rivals. Their key cb Aguerd was unavailable for that game and with some other options also unavailable they moved cm Santamaria to cb position, to partner cb Omari, but that decision backfired. Aguerd is back now, ready for this game, and we make the visitors small favorites in Strasbourg, prices above dnb 2.00 are worth a shot. Ok weather.
  3. This is Ligue 2 fixture, but as there is not much action on forum perhaps better not to open separate thread for one game but rather post the pick here in Fra Ligue 1 topic. Guingamp o2.25 @1.98 Min price to bet: o2.25 @1.90 or o2.5 @2.19 Model +value: yes Significant team news: nothing new at Guingamp, first team regular cb/dm Roux still unavailable; some new suspensions at Pau though, key cb/dm Kouassi, cm Sylvestre and backup/rotation fwd Naidji are all unavailable; also still out is first choice gk Olliero Note: Fine weather and good game expected in Guingamp. The hosts are safe, far away from the promotion playoffs though, so they can play with even more freedom, and perhaps try to end the season in 6th place, it's only 2 pts away with 5 rounds to go. They are in good scoring form, no clean sheets for opponents in their last 6, and at least 2 goals scored in each of the last 4; but on the other hand just 1 clean sheet for them in last 7... and it should be 1 in last 8 after tomorrow's game as Pau have scored in each of their last 4, despite the fact all teams they faced are in top 6 and Ajaccio and Paris have probably two best defenses in the league (well, Ajaccio's 16 conceded in 33 games is truly amazing). With 42 pts Pau are actually not mathematically safe yet, though should survive even if they win no more points until the end of season. This is a side that probably should've been better placed by now, they certainly should've scored more goals, in fact they are 4th in the league in big chances created. Kouassi's absence is important, he is their key defender, he has missed 3 league games this season and 4 last season, they have conceded in each of those 7, solid total of 15 goals. Both to score, Guingamp likely at least 2, prices above 1.90 for o2.25 line def look ok.
  4. Fenerbahce o3 @2.02 Min price to bet: o3 @1.95 Model +value: yes Significant team news: important am/rw Kahveci suspended for Fener; first choice cbs Nukan and Angel still unavailable for Goztepe; first choice gk Egribayat a doubt (he has missed last 2) Note: Fener are chasing Champs League spot and finally overtook Konya in 2nd place after last round results. Superb form, 5-1-0 in last 6, at least 2 goals scored in each of 5 wins, the only draw was 1-1 with runaway leaders Trabzon. Goztepe are 12 pts deep in the red zone, their survival chances are negligible and they have the worst form in the league, with 9 straight defeats, in all of which they have conceded at least 2 goals. Fener hcap is probably also ok, but we prefer the goals in this one, Goztepe are not that bad offensively, 8th in Superlig in big chances created, the type of this game also suits goals perfectly, TG 3.35+ for us. Ok weather in Istanbul.
  5. Samp -3/4 @2.11 Min price to bet: -3/4 @2.03 or -1/2 @1.80 Model +value: yes, but small for our min prices Significant team news: - (nothing new important, cf Gabbiadini still out for Samp, cm Ekdal back in the squad but not certain to start and Danish talent Damsgaard finally back in the squad after loooong absence. Usual mess in Salernitana, it's really not worth going into details though slightly better situation for them than in recent weeks; compared to last game, first team regulars cb Fazio and am Bonazzoli are back) Note: Samp are in poor form, only 1 win in last 6 games, but it was a deserved 2-0 at relegation candidates Venezia, and we fully expect them to beat another relegation threatened team tomorrow. Salernitana are not a very good football team, to say the least, and even though they are not giving up hope, it is Serie B they will participate in next season (and probably struggle there as well, after another set of wholesale changes to the roster over the summer). Again, just like in Venice, experience of some of the Samp's key players should help them here to get a vital win. Very nice weather conditions in Genoa tomorrow. Udinese -3/4 @2.10 & o2.75 @2.03 Min price to bet: -3/4 @2.01 or -1/2 @1.80; o2.75 @2.00 or o2.5 @1.80 Model +value: yes Significant team news: fwd Beto out for Udinese, he is their top scorer with 11 goals; important cm Zurkowski suspended for Empoli, their 2nd best rated player this season Note: Ok weather in Udine tomorrow, though with some possible showers in the afternoon. Although a draw would not be a disaster here for either of the two, there is no reason for the hosts not to continue with their good run, they have put in some superb performances over last several weeks, 2 straight wins against relegation candidates and 3-3-1 in last 7 for them, in what was very difficult schedule that included games against Milan, Napoli, Lazio and Roma. They can't improve much in the standings, but perhaps can catch 9th or 10th place, their performances this season certainly merited more points. Empoli are in terrible form, winless since mid-December, 0-7-8 in last 15, but good number of points won in the first part of the season (mostly with lots of luck) means they are still solid 12 pts above the drop zone. They were one of the circus teams during that first part of the season, involved in quite a few shootouts, but it's completely different story in last couple of months, with binary-code looking results. Just 1 of their last 9 games went over 2.5 line, and in just 3/9 both teams have scored. Last 5 read 0-0, 1-0, 1-1, 1-0 and 0-0 so perhaps overs pick doesn't look great, but Udinese have found their mojo, scored in 7 straight and also, xG are showing that last 5 Empoli's games should've had more goals in it, +1.20 per game, so low-scoring run is more down to efficiency than lack of chances created. Still, if we had to choose just one of these two picks, it would clearly be the hcap, as in fact we are relying predominantly on Udinese for goals as well. TG price should improve some more; not so sure about hcap price movement, though expecting it to be lower tomorrow.
  6. Home Away h% d% a% jwb1% RawG aTG1m HpC ApC TotC Osasuna Elche 44.2% 30.0% 25.8% 26.3% 1.90 2.16 3.31 3.80 7.11 Real Sociedad Sevilla 36.2% 27.6% 36.2% 22.2% 2.27 2.39 4.97 3.43 8.40 Deportivo Alaves Huesca 27.8% 27.2% 45.0% 25.1% 2.23 2.37 4.24 4.50 8.74 Atletico Madrid Eibar 63.5% 23.0% 13.5% 28.8% 2.17 2.33 4.20 5.21 9.42 Real Betis Valencia 45.8% 23.5% 30.7% 23.0% 2.86 2.78 5.88 4.37 10.25 Cadiz Celta Vigo 29.9% 25.7% 44.5% 24.0% 2.47 2.53 4.05 4.14 8.19 Getafe Real Madrid 14.8% 25.8% 59.4% 29.6% 1.96 2.19 3.81 5.64 9.45 Levante Villarreal 30.2% 23.6% 46.2% 23.2% 2.82 2.75 4.43 4.51 8.95 * short v of model numbers, with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1; raw and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot) Sevilla dnb @2.10 in tricky away fixture against strong Sociedad team normaly would not be enough for a bet, but in current circumstances it seems like a good choice. Hosts have won just 3 points in last 4 games, top 4 finish is basically out of the reach, they pretty much have to win this game to stand any chance, but even then chances would be just theoretical. They won the cup couple of weeks ago, but just 1 league win in last 6 cost a lot and they can pretty much play for fun for the remainder of the season. Sevilla have better team news here and also still some hopes in title fight, CL spot almos assured especially if they avoid defeat today. Their form is fine with 4 wins in last 5, performance against leaders Atletico couple of weeks ago was superb and they should probably small favs today. Huesca dnb @2.08 also looks fine, they do have a couple of imp missings, but also clearly performed better than Alaves throughout this season, form is fine, confidence is up while struggling hosts failed to win in last 8 and may look at this as a must win game even with 8 rounds to go, which, if happens, would suit Huesca perfectly. Similar to game in San Sebastian, imo visitors should be favourites here. Importance of this game is huge, so goals cant look attractive by default, still over 2 @1.93 is good enough considering we expect hosts to be more open than usual in first 60-65 mins. Cadiz-Celta over 2.25 @2.00 is another recommendation, there is that danger that both can be happy with a draw, but the way both teams, especially Celta, have been playing lately, it is difficult to imagine this to be low on entertainment. Both should create enough to score, price on visitors (who are underrated by model) is also close to the level we would consider fine for shot, -1/4 @1.93 would do it, not miles away but unlikely to get there. Weather is fine for all games, dry with 14-15 degrees in Basque and sunny, 20ish in Cadiz.
  7. Home Away h% d% a% jwb1% RawG aTG1m HpC ApC TotC Spezia Crotone 48.9% 23.3% 27.9% 23.1% 2.96 2.91 4.99 3.04 8.03 Parma Milan 14.9% 19.1% 66.0% 24.6% 3.03 2.96 4.25 6.12 10.37 Udinese Torino 37.9% 27.6% 34.5% 22.2% 2.33 2.50 4.50 4.79 9.29 Hellas Verona Lazio 22.0% 24.7% 53.4% 25.6% 2.51 2.62 4.51 5.24 9.75 Sampdoria Napoli 17.9% 21.0% 61.1% 24.9% 2.90 2.88 4.14 5.40 9.54 Roma Bologna 60.5% 20.0% 19.5% 23.6% 3.24 3.09 7.37 3.04 10.40 Fiorentina Atalanta 13.3% 18.6% 68.1% 24.7% 2.98 2.92 3.24 5.13 8.36 * short v of model numbers, with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1; raw and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot) Quite strong preference for away favs this round, starting with Milan -3/4 @1.96 and over 2.75 @2.08 in Parma tomorrow. Big game for both, Parma looked dead and buried not long ago, it wasn’t just lack of points but performances were consistently poor, however they clearly improved, started scoring more, lost only 2 of last 7 and their fight against relegation is far from over. 2nd placed Milan have been playing like mid-table side for most of last few months, that superb start they had is pretty much wasted as far as title fight goes, however there is still Champs Lge to play for. Their injury situation is better than few weeks ago, away record sensational (12-1-1), they should have won more points in last 5 games than they did and at current prices are worth a risk here (our min to go for is -3/4 1.90, though it wont be surprise if current price actually improves). Parma have scored in last 8, no surprise if they keep it up, this game looks good for goals, though would not go below 2.00 for o2.75. Sunday, Napoli -3/4 @1.98 at Samp seems ok, this will be 3rd game in a week for visitors but they have good depth, so even after hard Juve game it should not be a big deal, and also - Napoli should be more motivated here, chasing CL spot, with hosts pretty much safe in mid-table. In Verona, Lazio -1/4 @1.88 is another away jolly that seems ok for bet. Hosts are well organized and pesky side, they have better team news here, however they are in safe waters and euro spots are far away as well, so stronger visitors should be more motivated, with fight for CL spots wide open in Italy this season. We still have 8-9 rounds to go, so maybe it is a bit early to give too much weight to motivation, but it is def creeping up now and will be more and more important in coming rounds. Verona and Sassuolo seem to be in no man’s land, so more relaxed and more open football from them is almost inevitable (Sass doing their part in last month already), but for this game v Lazio price on overs is just not tempting enough, would need o2.25 1.90ish to try it. It should be rainy weekend in northern parts of Italy, but not to the extent that affects games, and sat game in Parma may still avoid rain.
  8. Torino Sassuolo 39.3% 23.2% 37.5% 20.3% 3.13 2.98 5.37 5.80 11.17 * short v of model numbers, with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1; raw and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot) Toro-Sassuolo over 2.75 @2.04 – agreed with previous post regarding btw and overs, this should be a fine game, with Torino hungry for points, Sassuolo relaxed and seemingly back on track after some bad run and injury problems, neither should be happy with a draw. Visitors could keep some of their big guns on bench ahead of Inter game, but in general you can expect some better performances and def higher number of goals in their games until the end of season. Torino are in red zone now, but certainly deserve a lot better fate, they had some v good performances before covid problems postponed a couple of games, if they get to that level safety should be reached without much problems, despite situation not looking so good at the moment. Nothing on hcap before lineups here, however goals should be on the menu regardless of coaching decisions, down to over 2.75 @1.97 seems ok, but wouldn’t expect price to move much during the day anyway.
  9. 17th March games Home Away h% d% a% jwb1% RawG aTG1m HpC ApC TotC Avispa Fukuoka Kashima Antlers 18.7% 20.8% 60.6% 26.2% 2.61 2.61 3.95 6.57 10.52 Tokyo Shonan Bellmare 58.6% 22.8% 18.7% 27.3% 2.33 2.43 5.49 3.56 9.05 Urawa Reds Consadole Sapporo 25.6% 21.0% 53.4% 24.0% 2.94 2.82 3.76 5.61 9.37 Yokohama F. Marinos Tokushima Vortis 55.5% 19.5% 24.9% 23.3% 3.23 3.01 6.00 4.52 10.53 Cerezo Osaka Oita Trinita 48.8% 26.4% 24.8% 26.4% 2.13 2.29 4.75 4.62 9.36 Vissel Kobe Kawasaki Frontale 12.6% 13.3% 74.1% 22.0% 3.53 3.20 4.15 5.86 10.01 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Shimizu S-Pulse 57.5% 20.4% 22.1% 24.7% 2.89 2.79 7.41 4.39 11.80 Sagan Tosu Kashiwa Reysol 39.8% 26.4% 33.8% 23.2% 2.28 2.39 5.45 3.33 8.78 Nagoya Grampus Yokohama 61.0% 22.6% 16.5% 28.1% 2.24 2.37 4.67 3.71 8.38 * short v of model numbers, with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1; raw and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot) A few interesting choices this round imo. Model has Kashima at 60.5%, we are a little bit higher at 63%, so Kashima -1 @2.18 makes the cut. With this congested schedule in Jap new season there is always danger of heavier rotations, especially for away teams in midweek games, but Kashima are an elite Japanese team, who for much of last season looked like clearly 2nd best (no match for Kawasaki in this league though) – but poor 1-1-5 start n dome bizarre losses in last couple of months prevented them from qualifying for Champs Lge. They have big game v Nagoya next, so we can expect some rotations and perhaps after lineups get announced (unlike Europe/SouthAm, in Japan J1 and J2 you always have official lineups 2 hours before kick off) price can improve, but this is already fine for bet suggestion. Kobe-Kawasaki over 3 @2.00 also looks ok. Kawasaki are by far the best team in the league, they can rotate 5-6 players and lose nothing in quality, and in Kobe have an opponent who will have their fair share of attacks and chances created, so this should be a good game. 8 of their last mutual meetings, and 11 of last 12 ended over 2.5 line, 7 of those over 3.5 line, difficult to expect anything different this time, both should score, model has goals v high and current price is more than enough for us, would recommend it down to over 3 @1.93. Next one is Hiroshima -1/2 @1.93, they are one of many teams who have CL qualification as goal this season, they are well balanced side and should have good control over this game - would do this bet down to 1.87 (or -3/4 2.12). Shimizu somehow escaped with 0-0 v Tosu at home few days ago, in game that was thoroughly dominated by away side, in fact Shimizu looked like J2 material again, like they did in first part of last season. It could be just a blip, as they did improve a lot in 2nd part of last season and also started this one fine, but this last performance was just horrible, and unless huge improvement is made they will be in trouble tomorrow. Goals are also interesting, would like to get over 2.5 @1.95 for a shot, market is quite close. If not, low scoring 0-0, 1-1 or 1 goal first half and over 1.25 @1.91 as target price for overs. Urawa-Sapporo over 2.75 @2.10 is just about there, this price should improve a bit tomorrow so probably fine to wait, hcap for away side also looks tempting as it seems there is a bit of difference between these two, with former giants Urawa just not inspiring confidence. Actually it could get ugly for them this season, however going against them in this one unless it is -1/4 @1.95 or higher just does not feel right, and with price unlikely to get there it will be a pass on hcap. For all these games weather should be fine, sunny, pleasant temp and no rain expected.
  10. Date Home Away h% d% a% jwb1% RawG aTG1m HpC ApC TotC 14/03/2021 Yokohama F. Marinos Urawa Reds 65.1% 15.9% 19.0% 22.2% 3.68 3.30 7.42 4.85 12.27 14/03/2021 Shimizu S-Pulse Sagan Tosu 33.8% 23.0% 43.3% 22.4% 2.82 2.74 4.88 4.90 9.78 14/03/2021 Oita Trinita Tokyo 29.9% 28.4% 41.8% 24.9% 2.04 2.23 4.55 3.90 8.45 * short v of model numbers, with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1; raw and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot) Our model strongly likes goals in Yokohama game, as well as hcap bet on hosts, both Yokohama -1 @2.16 and over 3 @2.06 are plays for us. Hosts may be a bit weaker than last season, but this is still one of the top Japanese sides, perhaps sometimes a bit too offensive for their own good. Their 9th place at the end of last season was a fluke, qualif for Champs Lge was/is the target, while Jap giants Urawa have clearly regressed over last few years; and despite finishing just one place below Yokohama last season, with just 1 point less, the difference between these two was huge. Perhaps end-season difference in goal-difference between the two was better indicator of true quality diff (+10 Yoko and -13 Urawa). It’s early days in new season, and Urawa had a good display in first round v Tokyo, but went south with performances afterwards and looking at their squad it is just difficult to be optimistic about their sudden return to top places. This kind of hcap for home team in Japan never sounds great (well.. except if Kawasaki are involved); and price could probably improve tomorrow, perhaps above -3/4 200, so you might wanna wait a bit on this one, but officially we can recommend it at current prices too. Overs price should go down tomorrow, it does seem like ‘clearer’ bet of the two, but we like both. Also, for fun shot, over 9 corners @1.91. Both Shimizu and Sagan Tosu improved a lot in second part of last season, but that goes especially to Tosu side, who, after playing some of the worst, defensive-minded football in J1 history for a couple of years, and flirting with relegation, found their mojo, started playing a lot better, started actually dominating games (which was unheard of for a few years!), and ended season on a 4-9-1 run, decent record which actually should’ve been better. They kept it up, 3 games and 3 wins this season, albeit this run includes games against two of the worst J1 sides in Shonan and Sendai. We make this game eachy, model even has Sagan as 43 favorites, so Sagan Tosu dnb @2.14 seems ok. As for totals, would need over 2.5 @2.05 or over 2.25 @1.78 to try it, it is v v close, not expecting this current price (1.98ish) to drop and imo there is a decent chance it improves tomorrow b4 ko. If not, maybe chance to catch it at halftime – over 1.25 at above 2.00 mark would do it, if it is 0-0, 1-1 or 1 goal halftime.
  11. Hi, it seems there is no interest here in this league in general, so instead of opening topics every round it is probably fine to keep whole season in one thread (can see it was done like this last years as well). If this is not OK, one of the mods please advise
  12. Home Away h% d% a% jwb1% RawG aTG1m HpC ApC TotC Wolfsburg Schalke 04 80.6% 13.9% 5.5% 23.3% 2.91 2.92 6.28 4.27 10.55 Union Berlin Koln 49.9% 27.9% 22.2% 26.6% 2.16 2.44 3.79 4.11 7.90 Mainz 05 Freiburg 29.9% 26.5% 43.6% 23.5% 2.52 2.68 4.42 3.64 8.06 Werder Bremen Bayern Munchen 7.5% 12.7% 79.7% 20.3% 3.67 3.42 2.53 7.78 10.31 Borussia Dortmund Hertha BSC 64.2% 19.2% 16.6% 23.5% 3.30 3.18 4.39 3.27 7.66 * short v of model numbers, with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1; raw and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot) Three TG overs for today… Union Berlin-Koln over 2 @1.88, Mainz-Freiburg over 2.25 @1.91 and Dortmund-Hertha over 2.75 @1.93. Weather is not great for footy, for all 3 games below 10 degrees, cloudy/rainy and with some potentially disturbing wind-gusts, however should be under control during games. I wouldn’t worry about temp or rain, however wind can be a negative factor, but for all 3 it seems it will be under the level that makes the difference. In case you prefer to wait for kick off or in-play market, best to check that weather again. Draw will not help much to either Mainz or Freiburg, this should be a game where both teams go for 3 pts, especially hosts. There is a preference for Freiburg on hcap, but not enough to get involved, as their performances really worsened after some brilliant displays couple of months ago, a couple of lucky wins keeping them in top part of table, while Mainz improved and could have some advantage in motivation here as well. Union Berlin vs Koln game screams of many things, but goals are not one of those – however this line is low for German Bundesliga, and these two have never had less than 2 goals scored in their last 12 meetings, this includes 6 from last 3 years. For bets on goals it is hosts who are worse of the two, as they are v disciplined side who generaly prefer low-scoring affairs, but we can expect Koln to show some ambition here and this game could be much better than expected, especially if Union can utilize their strength on offensive set pieces. With Dortmund involved, high 2.75 or 3.0 lines never seem problematic, but they have their heavy schedule, some injuries and rotations that will take place, plus it is Hertha on the other side, it wouldn’t surprise me to see this go above over 2.75 @2.00 during the day; however can go now with these current prices as well, minimums for bet would be o2.75 @1.83 and o3 @2.07, so plenty of space from current market.
  13. Date Home Away h% d% a% jwb1% RawG aTG1m HpC ApC TotC 13/03/2021 Sassuolo Hellas Verona 43.3% 25.4% 31.3% 22.9% 2.64 2.65 5.85 5.68 11.53 13/03/2021 Benevento Fiorentina 27.2% 28.8% 44.0% 25.0% 2.12 2.31 3.85 6.09 9.94 13/03/2021 Genoa Udinese 27.7% 31.7% 40.6% 25.0% 1.84 2.13 3.63 4.81 8.45 14/03/2021 Bologna Sampdoria 36.8% 24.7% 38.5% 20.9% 2.82 2.77 5.66 6.10 11.76 14/03/2021 Torino Internazionale 9.2% 15.4% 75.4% 23.4% 3.14 2.98 3.31 6.18 9.49 14/03/2021 Parma Roma 12.9% 17.6% 69.5% 23.9% 3.16 2.99 2.99 5.70 8.68 14/03/2021 Cagliari Juventus 9.8% 17.6% 72.6% 25.4% 2.79 2.75 4.73 7.33 12.06 14/03/2021 Milan Napoli 37.0% 23.6% 39.4% 20.6% 3.03 2.91 4.68 6.00 10.68 * short v of model numbers, with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1; raw and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot) Sassuolo dnb @1.88 – hosts had superb last season and didn’t start this one badly either, but their form deteriorated in recent months, performances were really below par and injury situation didn’t help. It is better now, and we can expect this offensive side to pick up more points in remaining games, perhaps remind us what they looked like for most of last season. Verona are well organized side, always difficult to play against, but at current prices I’m happy to go against them. In case of low scoring first half, over1.25 at 1.95ish mark could be worth a shot – current db price for overs is not tempting, and huge market move b4 kick off is unlikely; but both these teams are basically safe from relegation (even though in theory they should still be careful) and we can expect gpg in their games to go up, this especially goes for Sassuolo (who on first sight have ‘high’ 3.2 gpg average this season, but just 14 of 25 games went over 2.5 line). Napoli dnb @2.02 in big evening game tomorrow, very important for both sides, who seem to be getting back on track after recent slumps. Still, for Milan this game is sandwiched between big euro games vs ManU, it’s definitely distraction especially now after excellent result and overall display in first leg. Much more was expected from Napoli this season, they should’ve been fighting for title, but quite a few things went wrong, not only problems with injuries or some questionable coaching decisions, there was clearly some bad luck factor present as well – before this game Napoli are leading the league in shots on target differential, and are second in total shots differential, with only Atalanta better. They will be fresher of the two here, motivation is not in doubt, quality difference with full squads maybe on Milan’s side, but just maybe – and in current circumstances with Milan’s heavy schedule and more problems on injury front, it’s actually on Napoli’s side. Probaby some more comments later or tomorrow, cheers
  14. Home Away h% d% a% jwb1% RawG aTG1m HpC ApC TotC Brest Dijon 55.9% 24.2% 19.9% 26.1% 2.54 2.55 5.76 4.03 9.78 Olympique Lyonnais Rennes 57.9% 23.2% 18.9% 25.7% 2.71 2.67 4.47 4.51 8.98 Metz Angers SCO 43.0% 29.7% 27.4% 25.2% 2.07 2.25 5.31 5.43 10.74 Nice Nimes 51.5% 24.1% 24.5% 24.5% 2.77 2.70 4.78 4.70 9.48 Saint-Etienne Lens 35.8% 27.9% 36.3% 21.7% 2.36 2.44 4.81 4.80 9.61 Bordeaux PSG 12.2% 19.0% 68.8% 25.3% 2.84 2.75 4.11 6.03 10.14 Lille Olympique Marseille 53.1% 28.3% 18.6% 28.2% 2.00 2.20 4.48 3.40 7.89 Montpellier Lorient 51.8% 22.1% 26.1% 22.9% 3.23 3.00 5.27 4.65 9.92 Nantes Reims 34.4% 32.6% 33.0% 23.0% 1.82 2.09 4.18 3.29 7.48 Strasbourg Monaco 26.4% 23.5% 50.1% 23.6% 2.95 2.82 3.08 5.18 8.26 * short v of model numbers, with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1; raw and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot) Not a lot re hcaps, but a few totals look interesting. First, an ugly looking under 3 @1.86 in Lyon, this is above 5% value even if we go with 2.90 TG number. Perhaps 2.85 as some sort of max to bet off, so down to under 3 @1.77 or under 2.75 @2.05 still fine for cheeky shot. There is preference for Rennes on hcap, which seems even uglier to unders, with visitors in v bad form, no wins in last 7 and 4 straight losses (1 in Cup), so perhaps coaching change that followed was not a big surprise – but it is doubtful how much it will help them long term, as coach Julien Stephan left after 2 and a half years having left a strong mark here with Rennes playing CL and LE as well as winning Coupe de France with him on helm. Lyon have Paqueta suspended following his red card at Marseille, and after a strong run they dropped points in 2 of their last 3 (almost in all 3 actually, as halftime 3-0 lead at Brest almost got to 3-3 in the end), title race in France really heated up with 4 clubs in it and PSG not even close to any sort of domination they had in previous years. Various problems and injuries at PSG played their part here, but it is fair to say that Lyon have been probably the best French side so far. If you want a bizarre h2h info, you should look no further than this fixture: despite consistently being one of the top French teams in last couple of decades, Lyon always had problems with Rennes at home – incredibly, they only won 3 out of last 15 home league games v Rennes, losing last 3 (last 4 if we also include a semifinal cup game from 2 seasons ago, with Rennes winning competition in the end). Strasbourg-Monaco over 2.5 @1.95 is also worth a punt, I was hoping for evens here and it could get there eventually (price improved in last several hours), but this is already enough. Monaco are the form team in France and somewhat surprising title hopefuls after going 10-2-0 in their last 12 league games, they are certainly happy with 2 consecutive clean sheets as well, but this is side whose 21 of 27 league games this season finished over 2.5 line. Strasbourg should’ve conceded more goals at Lille at the weekend, as hosts were wasteful from some promising position, missing the target most of the time, with gk Kawashima also playing his part – however, Strasbourg could have scored more as well, actually could have won it in dying minutes. They are now unbeaten in 3, like to play more open than average French side and have a good oppo in Monaco here, with recent h2h also favoring goals, last 7 between the two all ended over 2.5 line (this is from last 3 seasons plus reverse fixture this season, as next h2h piece of info would take us to year 2008). Next one is Montpellier-Lorient over 2.5 @1.93 – crystal clear model bet, though it has to be said that Montpellier’s key forward Delort is still out. This bet currently works off TG 2.90 as well, so with no further disastrous team-news or bad weather conditions, I’m happy to risk it (would set o2.5 @1.87 and o2.75 @2.08 as some min prices to bet). Nothing on hcap, but was hoping for better price on hosts tbh, perhaps if tomorrow market goes for Lorient and price on Montpellier improves, some rough target would be -1/2 @2.12. Just looking now at corners market for fun, maybe under 9 corners @1.95 in Nantes is worth some beer money. Originaly, hcaps on Nimes and Metz seemed interesting, but quite a bit of chaos with team-news (and no important confirmations yet) means I’ll pass for now. No rain or stronger winds for these games tomorrow, weather should be fine, clear. Cheers
  15. Hi, there is no new topic on PL forum for this round (not sure if we are allowed to open these, as they contain some standard odds-rtgs data), so with previous post in this topic previewing game for tomorrow, I will also leave my Italy Serie B comments for tomorrow here, please if moderator can later put the post to appropriate midweek thread (if someone opens it)... Home Away h% d% a% jwb1% RawG aTG1m HpC ApC TotC Frosinone Monza 20.4% 35.9% 43.7% 27.2% 1.90 2.08 4.67 5.36 10.03 Cittadella Pescara 57.6% 29.1% 13.3% 26.7% 2.49 2.47 6.44 3.60 10.04 Ascoli Pisa 31.1% 32.2% 36.7% 22.6% 2.53 2.49 4.99 4.29 9.28 Lecce Virtus Entella 59.7% 26.2% 14.1% 24.4% 3.05 2.83 5.28 3.75 9.03 Vicenza Virtus Cremonese 34.9% 33.8% 31.3% 22.1% 2.31 2.35 4.62 4.55 9.16 * short v of model numbers, with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1; raw and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot) Monza -1/4 @2.11 is a bet, although tbh I was hoping for a bit better price, and it may improve later on, but this is already enough to recommend it. Monza are a serious promotion contender this season, no real weak spots in this side, though their form is not so good, with just 3 wins in last 9 games, and not undeservedly so, as performances dropped a bit recently as well, highlighted with saturday's 0-0 at home v fellow promotion hopefuls Cittadella, in a game where Monza were outplayed in general and probably should be happy with a point in the end. Two of their biggest stars Boateng and Balotelli are out for this one, but while the former is not irrelevant, Mario's absence should make no difference at all. Youngster Pirola who impressed in last two games will also sit this one out, but except for full 90 mins of playtime in those last 2 games he has just 35 more minutes this season. After 25 games, Monza's +2.20 shtgt differential is the best in the league, while their +4.05 total shots diff is 4th best, there is really little doubt this side is placed in current standings where they should be - and pretty much same can be said for mid-placed Frosinone, who should not flirt with relegation but also should have nothing to do with promotion race... though with playoff system in place, you never know. If Monza's form has dropped a bit in last several weeks, Frosinone's has pretty much plummeted, with just 1 single win in last 13 games, and it was a lucky one, 3-2 away win against the run of play at bottom-placed Entella. Hosts have more quality on paper than what they are showing on field, there are some high profile names for Serie B here, with several of them playing for Frosi in Serie A two seasons ago; and vast majority from last season's playoff run are also here... but this is simply not a good enough 'team', it's the second season in a row they seem to be missing something, they were lucky to get into playoffs last season in first place, then proceeded to almost win it, as they had Spezia on the ropes in that last game, but it wasn't to be. While I was hoping for dnb 180 or -1/4 220+, current price is still high enough as some min to bet would be in range of 203 -1/4. Lecce-Entella over 2.5 @1.93 is also a bet, though admittedly this line feels too high for Serie B; but first, it is chaotic Lecce who are involved, this is the team whose games (deservedly) had default TG line set to 3.0 this season as well; and on the other side it is Entella, who are leaking goals but also playing with more ambition in recent weeks, their current table position won't be helped with many draws, though they would certainly be happy with one tomorrow. Expected this to be set at 2.75 with overs priced around evens, so really can't resist this, it's basically 17-18 pts from current market price (o2.5 @1.93 / o2.75 @2.19). Lecce won reverse fixture 5-1, can't expect anything similar this time around, but both teams to score and then some more is realistic, keeping clean sheets is not their strength, Entella haven't done so in last 8, crazy Lecce in last 7 (or in 21 of last 23 if you like that more). While model likes Pisa for tomorrow, this is the game I would disagree with numbers, as Ascoli are one of the most improved sides in last month, their results improved but their performances merited even more, in fact in last 5 games their +6 shots differential and +3.2 shtgt diff are respectively 2nd best and best in the league, this was enough for just 1-2-2 record, and this run included games against Lecce, Salernitana, Pordenone and Frosinone, who are all either in playoff position or close, with only Reggiana in lower part of table (game that Ascoli lost 0-1, but had man disadvantage for 50+ mins and outshot hosts 20-9, on tgt 9-2); prior to this run they beat Brescia 2-1 at home winning shot attempts 25-6 (6-2 on tgt) and had a goalless draw in even game v very good Chievo side. Pisa are a tricky oppo to play against, and current price on Ascoli (208 -1/4) doesn't attract me enough, but in case of some huge move on visitors tomorrow, dnb 187ish on hosts would do it for anti-model bet. All of Pisa's 12 away games had 2 goals or more in it, model has this one at 2.50ish for TG, in case of price improvement overs could be interesting for bet, my current target is over 2.25 @2.03 (in case of 0-0 or 1 goal first half, rough halftime targets would be over 1 @1.75 or over 1.25 @2.25). For all 3 mentioned games weather should be fine tomorrow, 10-13^c during games, clear or v little precip, no problems.
  16. Date Home Away h% d% a% jwb1% RawG aTG1m HpC ApC TotC 28/02/2021 Monaco Brest 59.4% 19.6% 21.0% 22.6% 3.56 3.22 6.10 3.33 9.43 28/02/2021 Angers SCO Lens 35.8% 29.3% 34.9% 22.3% 2.17 2.32 5.03 4.94 9.97 28/02/2021 Lorient Saint-Etienne 33.1% 26.4% 40.5% 22.6% 2.57 2.57 4.10 5.10 9.20 28/02/2021 Nimes Nantes 33.9% 27.2% 38.9% 22.5% 2.46 2.50 4.24 4.81 9.06 28/02/2021 Reims Montpellier 36.5% 26.4% 37.1% 21.4% 2.60 2.59 4.29 4.31 8.60 28/02/2021 Lille Strasbourg 62.5% 23.4% 14.1% 27.8% 2.33 2.42 4.77 3.07 7.83 28/02/2021 Olympique Marseille Olympique Lyonnais 24.1% 24.4% 51.6% 24.7% 2.70 2.66 4.60 5.43 10.02 * short v of model numbers, with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1; robo and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot) Lille -3/4 @2.04 looks like a bet / heavier schedule due to Europa League, being knocked out won't help morale but they are doing v well in the league, topping the table and playing consistently well – it is still more likely we see Lyon or PSG getting the title in the end, but i’ts just 12 rounds to go and Lille have their chance here. Strasbourg are hit&miss this season, shouldn’t be involved in relegation battle but it could get ugly in the end unless they achieve some consistency in next few weeks. One good thing about Strasbourg is that they do like to play football – you will rarely see ultra-defensive approach from this side, and the way they usually play should suit Lille, who are fine in possession but also lethal in transition. Weather should be fine, sunny and around 10 degrees, and game should be fine as well, I would go with TG 2.45 here so suggest also over 2 @1.83 and/or over 2.25 @2.16 currently available. Lille have ‘mean’ defence esp at home, just 7 conceded in 13 games, but if Strasbourg show their happy side, there could be goals on both ends here, hopefully multiple in Stras net ofc. Elsewhere, if price on Montpellier improves to dnb @2.05 that would also be of interest, as well as over 2.25 @1.97 in same game. Marseille have way too many problems and are not playing well at all (basically all season long... zero shtg diff and -2.24 shots differential after 2/3 of the season doesn't suggest a top half team), so no interest from us there even though price looks high on first sight; Monaco-Brest game looks like goals bonanza, but personally would need over 3 @1.91 or over 3.25 @2.20 to have a punt... maybe if its 0-0 or 1 goal at halftime, to keep an eye for over 1.5 @1.95ish ht bet. Cheers
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