TD Scorers - Post Season Review

[harry_rag]

Just having a look at the headline figures. This season I only gathered data for players who's TD minutes were priced at over 20 to sell by the spread firms. I gathered data on more players last season but have extracted the >20 players for comparison with this season. These are players whose average best odds with the bookies have been 1.97, ranging from odds on up to around 2.8.

Last season you'd have made a profit simply backing every player blindly at the best bookies odds but this season you'd have made a small loss. It would have been profitable overall and, if you'd tried to get better odds on the exchange, you could have probably turned this season's loss into a small gain. (One more winner this season, even at odds on, would have made for a profit.)

Backing every odds on shot tells a similar story; profit last season but small loss this season. So it's the slight underperformance of the odds on shots this season that dragged the overall return into the red. (2 more winners would have been enough to show a profit.)

Backing at either evens or less or 11/10 or less was profitable both this and last season. Here's a table showing number of bets, return and ROI for this season and last as well as overall. I suppose you could also argue that only backing at evens or bigger would be a viable strategy given that it eliminates the loss on the odds on selections! Will review at leisure and come up with a strategy to try out next season. Plenty of time!

	Last	P/L	ROI	This	P/L	ROI	Total	P/l	ROI
Odds on	87	4.10	4.71%	112	-2.20	-1.96%	199	1.90	0.95%
Evens	101	2.10	2.08%	139	8.80	6.33%	240	10.90	4.54%
2.1	127	5.35	4.21%	171	3.90	2.28%	298	9.25	3.10%
All	149	6.16	4.13%	215	-1.35	-0.63%	364	4.81	1.32%

[harry_rag]

On 2/13/2023 at 3:28 PM, harry_rag said:

Backing at either evens or less or 11/10 or less was profitable both this and last season. Here's a table showing number of bets, return and ROI for this season and last as well as overall. I suppose you could also argue that only backing at evens or bigger would be a viable strategy given that it eliminates the loss on the odds on selections! Will review at leisure and come up with a strategy to try out next season. Plenty of time!

That said, been crunching the numbers some more while the iron's hot as it were! I've reached the following conclusion for now, can always review nearer the time.

• Backing the selections blindly has been profitable over the last 2 seasons - +4.81 points from 364 bets with an ROI of 1.32%
• Do my supposed "true odds" add any value? If you filter out any bets where the bookies odds are shorter than my idea of a fair price you end up with +7.01 points from 284 bets with an ROI of 2.47%
• Alternatively, you could rule out any selections on offer at less that 1.9 as these have shown a loss across both seasons. This leaves you with +9.85 points from 241 bets with an ROI of 4.09%
• Applying both of the above criteria gives you +13.68 points from 210 bets with an ROI of 6.51%. That's at best available bookie's price so it could no doubt have been improved by using the exchange.
• I'll widen the criteria slightly by reducing the minimum sell price from >20 to 20. It would only have given a potential extra 9 bets last season and they were profitable overall and with the filters applied. It's just feels like an easier and rounder number to work to when scanning the prices.

[harry_rag]

On 2/14/2023 at 4:19 PM, harry_rag said:

Applying both of the above criteria gives you +13.68 points from 210 bets with an ROI of 6.51%. That's at best available bookie's price so it could no doubt have been improved by using the exchange.

Just reviewing this before the new season starts. The criteria referred to were best bookies odds are better than my fair odds and 1.9 minimum. I've had a look at setting a minimum edge and think that it's worth doing so.

Minimum edge of 3% gives 181 bets, 17.23 points profit and ROI 9.52%, or 2% gives 189 bets, 17.01 points profit and ROI 9%. I'll go with the 2% minimum and see whether results this season hold up to what's gone before. So the criteria will be:

• Players whose TD minutes can be sold at 20 or more
• Best bookies price is 1.9 or better
• Best bookies price offers a minimum 2% edge over my "fair" price

[harry_rag]

On 9/5/2023 at 2:52 PM, harry_rag said:

Minimum edge of 3% gives 181 bets, 17.23 points profit and ROI 9.52%, or 2% gives 189 bets, 17.01 points profit and ROI 9%. I'll go with the 2% minimum and see whether results this season hold up to what's gone before. So the criteria will be:

• Players whose TD minutes can be sold at 20 or more
• Best bookies price is 1.9 or better
• Best bookies price offers a minimum 2% edge over my "fair" price

Currently running at +2.45 points from 49 selections with an ROI of 5.01%. For a man with a potential winning system I'm doing well to have lost as much money as I have on the season to date! 

[MinellaWorksop]

On 11/19/2023 at 4:06 PM, harry_rag said:

Currently running at +2.45 points from 49 selections with an ROI of 5.01%. For a man with a potential winning system I'm doing well to have lost as much money as I have on the season to date! 

It takes an Iron will to stick to a system rigidly so I wouldn't be too hard on yourself. On the positives it shows the strategy is highly competitive once again and is certainly no one season wonder.

[harry_rag]

On 9/5/2023 at 2:52 PM, harry_rag said:

Just reviewing this before the new season starts. The criteria referred to were best bookies odds are better than my fair odds and 1.9 minimum. I've had a look at setting a minimum edge and think that it's worth doing so.

Minimum edge of 3% gives 181 bets, 17.23 points profit and ROI 9.52%, or 2% gives 189 bets, 17.01 points profit and ROI 9%. I'll go with the 2% minimum and see whether results this season hold up to what's gone before. So the criteria will be:

• Players whose TD minutes can be sold at 20 or more
• Best bookies price is 1.9 or better
• Best bookies price offers a minimum 2% edge over my "fair" price

80 selections this year for a loss of 1.48 points with an ROI of -1.85%. That makes it +15.53 points from 269 bets over 3 seasons with an ROI of 5.77% so I'll probably go with the same approach next time round.