Women's World Cup 2023

[harry_rag]

Starts a month today, TV rights issue resolved at last so you can all stop worrying about not being able to watch the games and just look forward to setting your alarm clocks for the early starts!

I'm matched on 3 outright bets so far, having a had a look at the draw.

France at 22, Sweden at 29 and the Netherlands at 35.

The France price looks best (only 12 to back now) with Sweden 25 and the Dutch out to 42.

[harry_rag]

Time to channel my inner @StevieDay1983 and give my predicted 1-32 finishing positions for this, having worked my way through the draw and seen what I came up with. I'll do it in 4 parts, first up the grateful 8 who receive my endorsement for getting to the quarter finals.

Winners - USA: Rightfully favoured by the markets, the World Rankings and my league table of games between the top 25 ranked teams in the World. They've won 4 of the 8 renewals, their record from latest backwards being Won-Won-RU-3rd-3rd-Win-3rd-Win. It would be a brave punter who bet that this would be the first time they failed to at least reach the semis. I was going to say they were no bet for me with the market maybe having them about right but I've just had the modest stake allowed on them at the standout 11/4 with Betway as it looks very much like a price that isn't going to last. Easy to back at 5/2, they're also easy enough to lay at the same price. I'll take the view that maybe 5/2 is about their fair price and 11/4 or more is worth a bet.

Runners up - Germany: Solid enough 7/1 shots, ranked 2nd in the World. A close call to have them getting the better of England in the semis so not an especially confident prediction nor an appealing betting proposition at the prices.

Losing semi finalists 1 - Sweden: 3rd in the ranking and 2nd in my head to head table. Not the easiest passage as I have them coming up against the Dutch and the Spanish before falling to the USA but then it's always about fine margins in International tournaments. Happy to be matched on them at 29 on BF given my seeing them as likely semi finalists. (20s best with 1 firm and 16s after that.)

Losing semi finalists 2 - France: Ranked 5th by FIFA and in my table. Draw seems kinder to them than the Swedes (I have them getting past South Korea then co-hosts Australia). Again, happy with an generous looking 22 on BF versus 11/1 best bookies price.

And so to the 4 teams who came out as my losing quarter finalists.

1 - Norway: As someone from Bolton might say, "Norway" they get past the USA if the draw plays out as envisaged. I have them topping their group and getting past Japan. Spain would lie in wait though if they only managed 2nd place. 12th in the rankings and a team who seem to come up short against the better nations.

2 - Spain: I'm yet to be convinced by the National team as serious contenders despite the success enjoyed by Barcelona in club competitions. I think the markets tend to overrate them. Should top the group and get past Norway or the Swiss but I have them coming up short against Sweden. USA as probable opponents blocking their way to the final. They'd be a lay for me at around the 13/2 mark if that was my cup of tea. To be fair they are 3rd in my head to head table; FIFA rank them as 6th best.

3 - England: 4th in the rankings and my table, should top the group and get past Canada or Australia before the potential meeting with Germany in the QF. Well capable of winning it if they reproduce their best form but recent results have been underwhelming. Bottom line is they're not entering this competition looking anywhere near as well tuned as they did the Euros and there's an element of them being in transition and the coach not being quite sure of her strongest starting XI. I can't back them but would still be wary of betting too heavily against it all clicking for them in time for them to go deep.

4 - Australia: Ranked 10th, 14th in my table, even with home advantage they look too short for an interest at 14/1. I have them topping the group ahead of Canada then getting past whoever comes runner up to England but I see them falling at the QF hurdle whoever they may come up against.

 

[StevieDay1983]

Not sure anybody wants to channel their inner me, Harry, so apologies for what you experienced in there! 

I agree that it's hard to see past the USA and I'm fascinated to see how that potential Germany vs England game goes. I think a few factors work against England here. Firstly, Germany will want revenge for last summer. Secondly, this time it won't be on English soil. Thirdly, I just feel Germany possess the slightly stronger squad that will endure a longer tournament better.

I'm tempted to back Norway and Australia each way. Always had a soft spot for the Norwegians and would love to see Australia embrace the tournament on home soil.

[harry_rag]

SX the first spread firm up with an outright index; pays 100 points for the winner, 75 runner up etc. down to the 10 for going out in the round of 16.

Can't really argue with the left/right split here (those on the right are the teams I see not getting out of the group and none of them appeal for a speculative punt as a cheap buy). If I was going to play in this market I'd consider selling Spain as I think they're overrated to be ranked second. 21 point profit if they go out in the QF and only a 4 point loss for the semis seems reasonable. Japan also look a bit over valued to me given I don't see them getting past the 1st KO round.

Germany maybe slightly underrated but you're looking at a loss if they fall short of the semis. No bet for me but if I had a free buy and sell bet I'd buy the Germans and sell Spain.

It looks like they are also doing player goals prices. Be interested to see those when they go up. I'd really like to see a quote for total headed goals!

Edited July 6 by harry_rag
Got right and left muddled up!

[harry_rag]

My idea of the teams to fall at the first knockout round.

1 - Japan: Should be too good not to go through with Spain but likely to find Norway or the Swiss too much to go any further. Could make the QF at a push but can't see them getting past any team they might meet there, hence the comment in the post above about them looking like a sell at 25 on the outright index. Market does make them odds on to reach the last 8 so they are fancied to get over this first hurdle (8/11 compared to 6/5 Norway and 17/2 Switzerland).

2 - Switzerland: Likely to go out against Spain if both groups run to form, could get past Japan if either of them doesn't. Not impossible that New Zealand pip them to qualification in the group but they're not fancied to do so looking at their form, even with home advantage. 

3 - Italy: Should go through with Sweden but USA the most likely opponent in the next stage. Be surprised to see them reach the QF.

4 - Netherlands: Fancied to go through behind the USA then go out against Sweden but would obviously have better prospects if they ended up meeting Italy. Best priced 33/1 I got matched at 35 on BF but they've drifted like a barge. If there's anything of substance behind that then they could even be vulnerable to Portugal in the group stage but, all in all I'd say they should make it to this stage at worst and the QF at best.

5 - Canada: I see them going through with Australia then exiting against England. They are ranked 7th in the World but it feels slightly flattering and I did read of the team being at odds with the Federation. Could make the last 8 if they avoid England but just struck me as giving off a negative vibe when I was looking at the teams.

6 - Denmark: Neither China nor Haiti should have what it takes to stop them progressing alongside England but I'd fancy Australia or Canada to edge past them into the QF. They should give either a stern enough test though so a place in the last 8 is not entirely unlikely.

7 - Brazil: Ranked 8th, probably the best chance of making the last 8 of all these teams. Capable of making expected opponents Germany work for their passage and fancied to beat whoever else they might face if the groups don't finish as expected (South Korea, or Colombia at a push).

8 - South Korea: Will probably edge Colombia to go through with Germany but strongly fancied to not get past either of France or Brazil.

 

 

[harry_rag]

These are the teams I have finishing 3rd in the groups.

1 - New Zealand: Home advantage and only 6 places below the Swiss in the rankings so not the easiest call but I fancy them to get a decent win against the Philippines but fall short of qualification.

2 - Ireland: Too much of a gulf between them and Australia and Canada for me but comfortably better than Nigeria.

3 - Costa Rica: Similar to Ireland but just swap in Spain and Japan/Zambia.

4 - China: Only 1 place behind the Danes in the ranking but form against the top teams has me favouring the European side to go through with England. Streets ahead of Haiti.

5 - Portugal: Could challenge for 2nd if the Dutch aren't at the races, a long way behind the USA and should be too good for Vietnam.

6 - Jamaica: Should be a clear line down the middle of this group with France and Brazil going through while Jamaica compete with Panama to avoid the wooden spoon. Slight preference for the Jamaicans based on the rankings.

7 - Argentina: Quite a gap between Brazil and the other South American teams so Sweden and Italy should progress while Argentina get the better of South Africa.

8 - Colombia: As per the above group with the South Americans snugly ensconsed between Germany and South Korea above and Morocco below.

 

 

 

 

 

[harry_rag]

And finally... Nothing to say about these teams beyond any mentions in the previous post. Barring 500/1 Nigeria all are 1000/1 or more in the outright market. All fancied to finish bottom of their group and rated extremely unlikely to come close to qualifying for the knockout stages.

1: Philippines

2: Nigeria

3: Zambia

4: Haiti

5: Vietnam

6: Panama

7: South Africa

8: Morocco

[harry_rag]

Opening round fixtures part 1, Thursday through to Saturday. Denmark at 2/5 the biggest price on offer for any of the favourites!

[harry_rag]

Part 2, games played Sunday to Tuesday. The Netherlands and Italy slightly longer than Denmark and the last game actually gives us 2 teams at odds against. I'm just pulling together some data for each team's last 40 games reflecting their results against opponents of different rankings.

[harry_rag]

Antepost update, having had a trawl round the specials yesterday and a look at the top scorer/golden boot market.

Outright already mentioned are USA at 11/4, France at 22, Sweden at 29 and Netherlands at 35. I also got matched for a small bet on Canada at 85. Can't say I've got a huge amount of enthusiasm for that one but I'd left the request up from my initial quick look at the market.

Sky Bet have prices for games going to extra time and penalties. I took what I could get on >3.5 going to ET at evens and 6+ at 13/2 (both have been trimmed). Always worth considering backing the draw in the knockout rounds of International tournaments, there were 3 draws in the Euros from just 7 games. With 16 here I think it's easily odds on that we get 4 or more. I'm less keen on the "pens" prices but have had small bets on 4-5 at 10/1 and 6+ at 100/1.

The same firm also have a Golden Glove market and I've taken USA keeper Naeher at 7/2. Going with my gut here but it feels like a reasonable proxy for topping up my limited stake on the USA win at 11/4. The award has only ever been won by a player who made the final (shared once, 3 outright wins for the winning keeper and 2 for the runner up). It's been won by the USA stopper 3 times out of 6 (including the first one that was shared). All told I think it's a decent price given the team's odds for reaching the final.

Still looking at the Golden Boot but taken a couple of prices.

Daly (England) at 22/1 with Uni (very small stake allowed). Tipped by the Sporting Life at 10/1, a standout price that looks worth an interest. (Easy to lay at 11.5.)

Geyse (Brazil) e/w at 40/1 with Hills. Another SL tip, seems a reasonable use of a freebie. I was pronouncing it "geezer" in my head but apparently it "Jase" as in what you might call you mate called Jason!

SX have priced up player goals so I'm comparing that to the fixed odds prices to see if any seem worth a second look.

[harry_rag]

A couple more GB bets; Debinha for Brazil at 66/1 e/w with Betway and Schuller (Germany) at 45/1 e/w with Lads.

The latter is tipped by the RP at 40/1 and is half those odds with most other firms.

[harry_rag]

New Zealand v Norway:

Norway ranked 12th in the world and are 23-14-13 from their last 40 games (w/d/l). They have a poor record against teams ranked higher than them and a very good record against teams outside the top 20. For the purpose of this match up I've focussed on games against teams ranked 11-30. Norway have played 14, winning 10 and losing 4, scoring 20 goals and conceding 10. 3 of the defeats came against top 20 teams with the 21st placed Portugal the lowest ranked team to beat them. Btts landed in only 4 of those games. Apart from a 4-0 win over Belgium, Norway scored no more than 2 in all of the games and there were no more than 3 goals in total.

New Zealand are ranked 26th and have a rather underwhelming 6-5-29 record from their last 40 games. They have recorded friendly wins over 2 top 20 teams, 1-0 v England and 2-0 v S Korea, with a 1-0 win over Norway just outside the last 40 games.

Against teams in the 11-30 bracket they're 1-5-13 from 19 games with 7 goals for and 28 against. Btts landed in only 5 of those games and, leaving aside a 5-0 defeat v Portugal, all the games saw <4 goals.

Bet thoughts would be Norway win this one but it won't be a goalfest, add <4 or <5 into the mix if you want to tease the price out, depending on how cautious you feel. If you want to get a price the right side of odds against then add btts = no into the mix. I'll make my decision when all the firms have their bet builder options for the game active. Opening round group games tend to be closer and lower scoring (though that trend was bucked in the Euros) and I don't see NZ getting embarrassed with home advantage. I can see them keeping it reasonably tight in the hope of securing a narrow victory but falling short and being on the wrong end of such a result.

Having written this I've just had a look to see if the RP preview was up and they're going for Norway to win to nil.

[harry_rag]

Australia v Ireland

10th in the World takes on 22nd. The underdogs do have a 3-2 win over their hosts but it dates back to a friendly in September 21 in Dublin so I wouldn't attach too much weight to it. The teams' respective last 40 records are 19-7-14 and 18-4-18. Australia's last 10 games are 9-0-1 compared to Ireland's 6-1-3. Not by any means conclusive but Australia to seem to have done a very good job in terms of tuning themselves up for this tournament.

18 of their last 40 games have been against top 10 opponents and they have a very respectable 5-5-8 record from those games, suggesting that their own rating is by no means unreasonable. Focussing on teams ranked 10-30 for the purpose of this head to head then they're 5-1-5 from their 11 games with 19 for and 14 against. Both teams scored in 7 of those games and the same number saw >2.5 goals.

Ireland fair less well against the top 10 (and play them less often) having a 1-1-8 record from 8 games. Apart from the win over Australia they managed a 1-1 draw away to Sweden in a WC qualifier in April last year. They're 6-1-8 in 15 games against teams ranked between 20 and 30, 12 for and 16 against. Only 4 saw both teams score and only 4 went >2.5.

I can't see past Australia winning this with home advantage and given their clear superiority and would fancy them to score more than 1 goal. It's a shame that the trends for btts and >2.5 are so contradictory. I might see if there's a reasonably priced Australian goalscorer worth adding into the mix.

[harry_rag]

Following on from the above posts I've gone for Norway to win and <3.5 goals at 11/10 in the first game and Australia to win/score >1 goal and Foord to score at 5/2 in the other game. 

Foord has scored in 5 of Australia's last 10 games including a couple of braces.

I'm reluctant to bet on players to get an assist (having been battered by backing on fixed odds and doing well selling on the spreads) but there are a couple of interesting players for Australia. Kerr has scored in 4 of their last 10 games and assisted in the same number while Raso has assisted in 5. Kerr looks more appealing for an assist at 11/4 than for a goal at not much better than evens and the 3/1 for Raso looks decent. Their assist minutes at 13 and 12 are arguably better value still (around a third of her goal minutes price in Kerr's case) but all in all I think I'll keep a watching brief (which usually means watching the bets I swerved romp home).

 

[Fader]

wow, @harry_rag representing. I was expecting to not even find a world cup thread. Can't say I'm too clued up on women's football but based on what small research i've done and the fact i want to bet on something that I may watch abit off, I will be going for these 3 picks.

2pts Germany 8/1 betvictor
2pts France 10/1 Paddypower
-----------------------------
0.5pts e/w Netherlands e/w 25/1 Betfred

[harry_rag]

18 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Australia to win/score >1 goal and Foord to score at 5/2 in the other game. 

Foord has scored in 5 of Australia's last 10 games including a couple of braces.

Matched on Foord to score at 3.2 (v best bookies price of 17/10 from 7/4 yesterday). I'd have taken that bet anyway and it certainly looks no worse with Kerr unfortunately out due to injury.

[harry_rag]

2 hours ago, Fader said:

wow, @harry_rag representing. I was expecting to not even find a world cup thread. Can't say I'm too clued up on women's football but based on what small research i've done and the fact i want to bet on something that I may watch abit off, I will be going for these 3 picks.

2pts Germany 8/1 betvictor
2pts France 10/1 Paddypower
-----------------------------
0.5pts e/w Netherlands e/w 25/1 Betfred

On the latter pair at decent exchange prices. Wouldn't begrudge you the Germans if Schuller fires them to victory as on her at 45/1 for the Golden Boot.

18 hours ago, harry_rag said:

I've gone for Norway to win and <3.5 goals at 11/10 in the first game

Well I was right about the unders at least!  No complaints, a deserved win for New Zealand, Norway showing far too little and far too late. A nice 6/1 winner on the board for anyone who's decided to adopt a back the underdogs approach.

[harry_rag]

21 hours ago, harry_rag said:

I'm reluctant to bet on players to get an assist (having been battered by backing on fixed odds and doing well selling on the spreads) but there are a couple of interesting players for Australia. Kerr has scored in 4 of their last 10 games and assisted in the same number while Raso has assisted in 5. Kerr looks more appealing for an assist at 11/4 than for a goal at not much better than evens and the 3/1 for Raso looks decent. Their assist minutes at 13 and 12 are arguably better value still (around a third of her goal minutes price in Kerr's case) but all in all I think I'll keep a watching brief (which usually means watching the bets I swerved romp home).

Took the bets in the end (only allowed to stake enough to win a fiver so wasn’t too much of a dilemma). Kerr void and Raso (unexpectedly) paid out due to her winning the penalty. Must check at some point who has what definitions. Wouldn’t have counted on the spreads which is where 99% of my assist betting is done.

[harry_rag]

That small win spared me a blank day, on to day 2. We've not seen any real mismatches yet as all 4 teams were ranked between 10th and 26th, the latter enjoying home advantage. No huge surprise to have seen two fairly typical opening round group games, level at the break and close at the end. Tomorrow's middle game gives us our first glimpse of a "giants v minnows" scenario.

Spain are ranked 6th and are 32-6-2 over their last 40 games, 166 for and 13 against. Barring a draw with 13th ranked Italy, all 8 of their losses or draws came against teams ranked in the top 10. They've scored 2 or more in 29 of their games and only been shut out twice (by Germany and Italy). They've kept 31 clean sheets and only conceded 2 or more in 3 games (v Germany, Australia and Norway). 

They've won all 21 games against teams outside of the top 20, scoring 131 and conceding 1. Only twice were they restricted to a single goal and they scored 5 or more on 12 occasions (half of them against teams in the top 40).

Costa Rica are ranked 36th and are 15-6-19 over their last 40 games with 67 for and 64 against. 

They've only played 12 games against teams more than 1 place above them in the rankings and are 0-1-11 from those games with 2 goals for and 33 against. The draw was 1-1 v 25th ranked Colombia. They've had 4 or more put past them in 6 games; the USA hit them for 6 a couple of time and they conceded 4 against Netherlands, Scotland, Haiti and Venezuela.

Hard to see past Spain winning easily, maybe a matter of deciding how many you think they can score. I'd say they should win to nil and will probably avoid the scenario of being level at the break.

[harry_rag]

Canada ranked 7th and 19-12-9 from their last 40, 54 for and 28 against. Not especially high scorers generally, they've had 9 draws in 24 games against top 20 opposition (7 wins and 8 defeats). In 16 games against teams outside the top 20 they're 12-3-1 and 35-6 in terms of goals for and against.

Nigeria are ranked 40th with a record of 17-5-18 and 55-48 from their last 40 games. Their record against top 26 teams (as far down as New Zealand) is 2-2-13 and 13-35 from 17 games, with victories over NZ and South Korea. They won their last 3 games prior to the tournament, against Costa Rica, Haiti and New Zealand.

I'd expect Canada to win but not with a huge amount of enthusiasm at the price. Feels a bit like today's games in terms of tight and a narrow victory, maybe with a possible Nigeria handicap angle to be played.

[harry_rag]

Switzerland are 20th and 15-14-11 (84-53) from their last 40 games. Not great against teams better than than them and a fairly high draw % against broadly comparable teams. Against teams ranked 16-50 they are 6-9-3 from 18 games (26-21). Not likely to score a hatful other than against the lower ranked teams.

Philippines are 24-3-13 (120-38) from their last 40 but flattered by the results against teams ranked lower than them. Against teams better than them they are 5-3-12 (18-30) from 20 games. They've only played 8 games against top 30 opposition and lost 7, the exception a 1-0 win over Australia (at 10th, their highest ranked opponents).  Nobody's whipping girls (!?) they've only had more than 2 goals put past them on 3 occasions.

Feels like another tight opening game where the Swiss may struggle to justify the extent to which they're favoured. Similar thoughts to the Canada game in terms of potential betting angle.

I've decided to do some sort of combo bet for an interest in most games (evens or better) and will take stock of the above and pick something out later.

[harry_rag]

Gone for the following as my fun/ interest bets. 

Draw/Canada double result at 16/5

Switzerland to win and score <2.5 goals at 7/4

Spain/Spain double result, Spain to score >3.5 goals and btts = no at 2.03

[harry_rag]

20 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Draw/Canada double result at 16/5  0-0 with Canada missing a pen in the 2nd half.

Switzerland to win and score <2.5 goals at 7/4  2-0 

Spain/Spain double result, Spain to score >3.5 goals and btts = no at 2.03  Spain 3-0 up after 27 minutes, missed a penalty and couldn't add the 4th

Going great so far with just the one winner but fairly certain I can't lose on the next game as I'm leaning towards no bet.

Top ranked USA v 32nd place Vietnam is similar to the Spain game for me but with a greater gulf between the teams. Key stats for me are USA are 19-1-0 v teams ranked 25+ (88-3 for and against) while Vietnam have lost all 11 of the games they've played against higher ranked teams (3-42). I'd be no more surprised by USA winning this 4-0 than I would by them winning it 8-0 so, if I can't pick a side in terms of the handicap line, it's probably best to save the stake money for another game.

(Vietnam recently lost just 2-1 to Germany but then got thumped 9-0 by Spain and also lost 7-0 to France last July.)

[harry_rag]

Japan (11) v Zambia (77)

Leaning towards a high scoring game in which both teams score and Japan win here. Zambia may be better than their ranking implies judging by their results and it looks like they regard attack as the best form of defence.

Japan are 14-0-0 (70-2) v teams ranked outside the top 30.

Zambia are 4-5-10 (27-41) v teams >20 places better than them and 1-2-7 (17-35) v teams in the top 25. Their last game was an eye-catching 3-2 win against Germany and those 10 games against "elite" teams saw some high scoring games as shown below.

Home	HS	AS	Away	HR	AR
Germany	2	3	Zambia	2	77
Brazil	1	0	Zambia	8	77
Zambia	3	10	Netherlands	77	9
China PR	4	4	Zambia	14	77
Korea Republic	5	0	Zambia	17	77
Korea Republic	5	2	Zambia	17	77
Switzerland	3	3	Zambia	20	77
Republic of Ireland	3	2	Zambia	22	77
Colombia	1	0	Zambia	25	77
Colombia	1	0	Zambia	25	77

[harry_rag]

11 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Leaning towards a high scoring game in which both teams score and Japan win here. Zambia may be better than their ranking implies judging by their results and it looks like they regard attack as the best form of defence.

Gone for Japan to win, >3.5 goals and btts = yes at 23/10

[harry_rag]

England (4) v Haiti (53)

England 11-2-0 (91-2) v teams outside the top 20 (draws v Portugal and Czechia)

Haiti 2-1-14 (11-51) v top 40 teams (wins v Mexico and Costa Rica not too noteworthy but the draw was against Canada). They've played the USA 5 times in their last 40 games with an aggregate scoreline of 26-0.

I don't think England will have too much trouble and gone for them to win HT-FT, >3.5 goals and btts = no at 11/10.

[LEE-GRAYS]

[LEE-GRAYS]

1 hour ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

Not looking good @harry_rag have to try and get me money back next 2 games 😂

[LEE-GRAYS]

8 minutes ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

Not looking good @harry_rag have to try and get me money back next 2 games 😂

Just go with bet boost 

[harry_rag]

Japan did their bit but were too good (and not generous enough) to let Zambia score!