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  1. #1
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    Default True Odds Calculator

    I have decided that I am going to make my true odds calculator available for download (I'm at work at the moment so it will be tonight before it's available)

    Background

    I have created a spreadsheet that uses formulae that Kevin Pullien (columnist/ tipster for the Racing Post) has developed using thousands of matches worth of data. All the formulae used can be found in the book "a guide to betting on football" by Pullien. I'm not going to go in to detail into how the formulae work, you'll have to buy the book for that.*

    I have created an Input sheet where all the relevant data used in the formula needs to be entered and a output sheet, where all the calculated odds are presented. There are numerous hidden tabs in which all the formula and workings out for various markets. (these are hidden as you'll never need to edit any of them and all the results are on te output page)

    So, what can the spreadsheet work out?

    At the moment, I can find true odds on the following markets;

    90 mims betting (12X))
    Under/ Over 1.5 Goals
    Under/ Over 2.5 Goals
    Under/ Over 3.5 Goals
    Total booking points
    Total corners
    First team to score
    First player to score
    Correct score

    What do I need to input?

    For all markets to be calculated the following needs to be input on the input page:

    (For all stats I tend to use data from current and previous season)

    Both teams WDL record

    Both teams goals for and against average (home team FA at home and away team FA away)

    Both teams corners for and against average*(home team FA at home and away team FA away)

    Both teams bookings for and against average*(home team FA at home and away team FA away)

    (for teams promoted or relegated the previous season, there is a table showing the values to be entered in WLD section rather than the previous seasons data)

    As well as this data for both teams, I need to enter the following data about the match;

    Is it at a neutral venue? Y/ N

    Referee average bookings per game

    Average bookings per game for the league

    Average corners per game for the league

    (the corners and bookings average are on the input page in a separate table, you simply copy the relevant leagues data)

    At the moment, I'm getting all the data I need for corners, bookings and the referee from the *football-data website. However, I then have to work out all the averages myself (using the sort function and alot of cutting and pasting). The other data such as WLDFA I'm getting from statto but again I have to work the averages for te FA myself. I feel this area can be improved as it can be quite time consuming. So any suggestions welcome. *I would also appreciate any other suggestions that people may have.


    (spreadsheet to follow...)

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  3. #2
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    Default Re: True Odds Calculator


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    Default Re: True Odds Calculator

    Quote Originally Posted by jamiedavies02 View Post
    Link didn't working
    The mind is like a parachute. It doesn’t work unless it’s open.

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    Default Re: True Odds Calculator

    I'd say your title is a bit misleading,
    it's not a true odds calculator is it,
    it is "an" odds calculator,
    but it doesn't give the "true" odds does it,
    they will forever remain part of the land of the unknown.
    If you stay in the game long enough, you'll see everything, win everything, and lose everything.

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    Default Re: True Odds Calculator

    The odds are true to me

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    Default Re: True Odds Calculator

    Link don't work..

    Datapunter I add u to msn live but seem u don't sign on..

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    Default Re: True Odds Calculator

    Alturl.com/yc52k and click download in the middle

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    Default Re: True Odds Calculator

    Quote Originally Posted by jamiedavies02 View Post
    Alturl.com/yc52k and click download in the middle
    Ok now, I've just downloaded it, and I hope you don't mind that I give a correct link http://www.woofiles.com/dl-206766-SD...-TrueOdds.xlsx .

    Btw., on first look I think you should add some comment at specific fields in tables just to be more understanding.

    Cheers
    The mind is like a parachute. It doesn’t work unless it’s open.

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    Default Re: True Odds Calculator

    @ jamiedavies, fair enough , good luck with it.



    @ buttasparks, my mother told me not to talk to strangers
    use the email adress from my profile
    If you stay in the game long enough, you'll see everything, win everything, and lose everything.

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    Default Re: True Odds Calculator

    If your getting the data from football-data why not just do a screen dump into your file and let excel do the calculations?

    I made a databse using excel based on pulleins equations but found no edge when backtesting. Good luck with it thou

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    Default Re: True Odds Calculator

    What is a screen dump and how do I do that?

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    Default Re: True Odds Calculator

    Jamie,

    I don't see anything about what players are in the teams, is it a full strength squad? Whether each individual player is in form, out of form, coming back from injury, plays well with a certain team mate / formation. Is it a new manager? How will the new signing effect the team? etc.

    Without taking all the above in to account you don't stand much chance of calculating "true" odds. True odds will always be a subjective opinion, in my opinion.

    Best of luck.
    Last edited by Gingertipster; 22-09-2010 at 02:34.

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    Default Re: True Odds Calculator

    Just signing to thank jamie for the spreadsheet, I've been meaning to do one for the pullein stuff for a while as a useful benchmark for some of the models I have produced recently.

    Re. Pullein, he is good but not perfect, some of the analysis he does is a bit flawed. e.g. I've been doing a lot of work on corners recently and found the distribution he had for corners was not correct. basically the problem is that he averages over a team. whereas he should be averaging over matches with the same expectancy., this produces a different distribution.

    anyway keep up the good work, I started off like yourself as a young betting shop manager who had an interest in the theoretical side of things and started producing my own models, now I produce them for a living.

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    Default Re: True Odds Calculator

    Really thanks for posting this, will be looking into it and hopefully testing it soon :-) I read the book too so this caught my eye.

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    Default Re: True Odds Calculator

    A screen dump is basically a big copy and paste job.

    It will take the data from the football data sheets (already in excel) and you can then extract what you want from it. Saves a lot of time and manual calculations.

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    Default Re: True Odds Calculator

    Thats what I've been doing! What I meant was once all the stats are copied and pasted, I was manually inputting the formula to calculate the averages every time. However since posting I have edited the calculation sheet so it is now using the autosum and count functions. So once the data is transferred to
    My spreadsheet, it now automatically works out the averages for me. I could link the calculations page to the input page but I don't always do all the donkey work, later on in the season if I'm being lazy I can get all the stats I need from the racing post for live games.

    Does anybody know a site where i can find all the referees for the weekends games?

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    Default Re: True Odds Calculator

    The best site I found for referees was bbc.co.uk

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    Default Re: True Odds Calculator

    Linkage? Can't seem to find the referees!

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    Default Re: True Odds Calculator

    Forgot to add, I you open the how many goals/ corners/ bookings tabs, the expectations can be used to squeeze some value on the spreads

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    Default Re: True Odds Calculator

    It's been a month since I posted the spreadsheet, has anybody got any suggestions to improve it? Or just any feedback in general?

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    Default Re: True Odds Calculator

    You know, I've only just looked at this.

    Interesting, I might think about incorporating the value aspect of match odds from this into my football system.
    "You're just another Internet crazy, or village idiot, claiming that cows fly at night when nobody sees them, Elvis Presley is working as a sales clerk in Millwall, that George Bush was frequently abducted by aliens during his time as president."

    http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/152264-Fleet-s-Trebles-amp-Perms

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    Default Re: True Odds Calculator

    Quote Originally Posted by jamiedavies02 View Post
    It's been a month since I posted the spreadsheet, has anybody got any suggestions to improve it? Or just any feedback in general?
    A timely reminder! I downloaded it but haven't got round to having a proper look yet. Got some time off coming up so will look to do so and feed back.

    I currently use a ramshackle spreadsheet I cobbled together over time based on Pullein's writings from years ago so will be interesting to see how it compares.

    Thanks for sharing this.

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    Smile Re: True Odds Calculator

    I would just like to say a big thank you as this will greatly help my analysis cant thank you enough

    i have downloaded the excel sheet a few of the terms I am not sure of when inputting data such as GFA GCA CFA CCA BA I could make an a guess and may jump to the conclusion that they are Goals for average goals conceded average if you could clear this up I would be ever so grateful

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    Default Re: True Odds Calculator

    Damn, when I try to open it it just opens an IE window with all this:


    -





















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    Default Re: True Odds Calculator


    -





















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    Default Re: True Odds Calculator

    Ok well I can't paste it but it's a load of jumbled up text ??

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    Default Re: True Odds Calculator

    Quote Originally Posted by Gooner80 View Post
    I would just like to say a big thank you as this will greatly help my analysis cant thank you enough

    i have downloaded the excel sheet a few of the terms I am not sure of when inputting data such as GFA GCA CFA CCA BA I could make an a guess and may jump to the conclusion that they are Goals for average goals conceded average if you could clear this up I would be ever so grateful
    Yes that would be correct.

    GFA Goals For Average
    GCA Goals Conceeded Average
    CFA Corners For Average
    CCA Corners conceeded average
    BA Booking average of games there involved in

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    Default Re: True Odds Calculator

    Thank you for the spreadsheet Jamie,

    There seems to be something wrong with the correct score odds.
    I see they're taken from a table in which the lowest 0:0 odds are >11 which cannot be right, or am I missing something?

    Cheers

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    Default Re: True Odds Calculator

    Sheet looks good and easy to use.

    The only suggestion I would make is to change the input sheet a bit, if you added a P (played) column, then you could avoid having to calculate all the averages yourself, and just input the raw numbers.

    Also have you mentioned how many games you use in the form section?

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    Default Re: True Odds Calculator

    Since posting the spreadsheet a few months ago, Ive made some change with regards the input. You can now copy and paste goals, corners and bookings straight from the football-data spreadsheet and all the calculations are done for you, thus reducing the workload.

    Donkson, I tend to use stats from the current season and the previous season

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    Default Re: True Odds Calculator

    Good afternoon,

    I am trying to download the spreadsheet and is corrupt, can anyone upload it again?

    Thank you.

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    Default Re: True Odds Calculator

    indeed, anyone?

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    Default Re: True Odds Calculator

    Think I've uploaded the right file:

    http://filebeam.com/0c8526bcd2b0ecabfad955a370440b21
    "You're just another Internet crazy, or village idiot, claiming that cows fly at night when nobody sees them, Elvis Presley is working as a sales clerk in Millwall, that George Bush was frequently abducted by aliens during his time as president."

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    Default Re: True Odds Calculator

    hi have anybody test this true odds calculator?

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    Default Re: True Odds Calculator

    Hi Jamie.

    I have been able to download this spreadsheet and have a look at it. Most of it makes sense, except for the "First Goalscorer" calculations. The "FIRSTGOALSCORER" sheet takes its values to calculate on from the INPUT sheet from the "FORM" values. What goes into "FORM"? I would suspect it is the teams' formations for the match, but if I put in, say "4-4-1", it calculates the first goal scorer as coming from the Defense? This seems wrong to me.

    Anyway, that was the only thing not clear. Thanks! :-)

    -SilkBC

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    Default Re: True Odds Calculator

    Good afternoon,

    I like this utility. I would like to complete a bit if this were possible, automaticando data capture. I ask.

    Does anyone know where to get site data such as which positions are marked goals, average corners, etc?

    Many Thanks

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    Default Re: True Odds Calculator


    Highest Odds at Marathonbet
    Evertonboy Where can I get the data for this soft? I want to calculate a few matches.sorry for my English.


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