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Posts
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7.40 Punchestown Goldinthemountains 11/2 Win Only Bet Victor
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minus 20.00
5.40 Donny - Off The Bench - £20 win at 9/4 wm hill
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5.40 Donny - Off The Bench - win at 9/4 wm hill
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Thursday 02/05/2024
Doncaster 20:20 Mr Irrelevant
f/c 6/4
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I don't have any ratings that could be incorporated into this experiment but I do have a numerical system for races up to 8 furlongs
This is based on the average winning trips of sires and damsires. Basically you add them together and divide by two to get a figure in furlongs. I can't remember why now but I called this the SD figure ....... S obviously stands for Stamina but I can't remember what D stands for ........ getting old ! (maybe Distance)
A few years ago I spent a year noting this figure for all winners and horses finishing within 2 lengths of winners in all weather races and then I converted these figures into percentages. If there is any value in this I think it should apply to turf racing as well because it's about the distance not the surface
so for the 2000gns I have range in the field from 7.8 to 10.5 and the 'sweet spot' for horses over a mile is 85 to 95. The following horses qualify with current best price
Alyanaabi - 20/1 wm hill
Haatem - 25/1 bet365
Task Force 20/1 wm hillThis takes into account nothing but the possible suitability for the trip
So for example I have City of Troy with the biggest figure, 10.5 furlongs, which suggests he'd be much more effective in the Derby but he might have enough class to win at a mile even though not ideally suited by it
But on the basis of my little system my 3 E/W shots are .........
Alyanaabi - 20/1 wm hill
Haatem - 25/1 bet365
Task Force 20/1 wm hill
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