Champions League Semi Finals Predictions > 30th April & 1st May

[harry_rag]

Semi finals time in the UEFA competitions and I'd fancy a Madrid/PSG final here if pressed. Any permutation would be worth a watch though I'd be less keen on an all German final from a neutral perspective. Let us know what your thoughts and bets are below.

[harry_rag]

ELO ratings are back.

https://www.punterslounge.com/football/elo-ratings/

[harry_rag]

Done my "heat map" thing for tonight's game. Gone back for each team's last 30 goals to make sure there's at least 10 games in the sample for both sides.

Bayern 30 goals in 10 games, scored in 9 and BTTS in 6. Same numbers for Real 30 in 15, scored in them all and BTTS in 8. All screams goals but you have to bear in mind the occasion and the possibility of a tighter games.

Who's hot scorer wise? Some geezer called Kane, scored 9 including a brace and a hat trick. 4 for Muller (1 brace) and Gnabry. 3 each Musiala and Goretzka.

Junior 8 (2 braces), Rodrygo 5 (1 brace), 3 for Diaz and Bellingham.

Diaz the only player mentioned not in the RP probable line ups. 3/1 Rodrygo the most appealing price at a glance but I'll wait for line ups.

[harry_rag]

Bellingham to score at 4.1. Him and Kane to do so at 15/2 (Kane just shy of being a single unless my exchange bet gets taken). Rodrygo "screamer" at 40/1 and also backed him 1st e/w at 10/1.

[Cookiejames1]

Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid

Kane to score or assist 6/10

Muisala to score or assist 6/4

Muller to score or assist 11/8

Edited April 30 by Cookiejames1

[harry_rag]

5 minutes ago, Cookiejames1 said:

Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid

Kane to score or assist 6/10

Not to labour my previous point on the subject (well, maybe not to labour it excessively) you can get that bet at 4/5 with PP who (possibly) have a wider definition of what an assist is. Also you could dutch the best anytime goal/assist prices to around 1.75 and have the chance of landing 2 bets for the price of one.

It's hard to win in player prop markets generally and getting the best combination of price and terms can make a big difference. (For the benefit of anyone who sees the bet and fancies it perhaps.) 

Kane anytime has drifted enough for me to back him at 2.3 or more. I saw the assist at 13/2 with Ladbrokes.

[Cookiejames1]

Dortmund vs PSG

Over 1.5 match goals 2/13

Mbappe to score or assist 1/2

Sancho to score or assist 8/5

Edited May 1 by Cookiejames1

[harry_rag]

Fullkrug to score at 3.45 (may be drifting further). A system pick for me, in decent scoring form at the moment.

Backed Vitinha and Sabitzer "screamers" for an interest, 20/1 and 18/1 (22/1 if you can get on with Betway).

[harry_rag]

It surprises me but apparently Sancho only has one assist this season in the league or the Champions League while Fullkrug has 11.

Used a 50% boost to get 27/1 for Fullkrug to score and assist and btts. If he does one or other early enough I've got a decent interest in the game.

He's done it twice in the Bundesliga and once for the National team this season.

Also matched on Barcola to score at 6.4

[harry_rag]

Well the goalscorer bet is in at least!