tonythepaint Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 YTD -£7 One bet this week. K Mitchell 40/1 B365 £1 ew 1/4 odds 5 places fd1972uk and MinellaWorksop 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonythepaint Posted May 1 Author Share Posted May 1 Quick question. How long have you regulars been posting your tips and have you been successful. I'm going to give it a year to see if I'm profitable. If not I'll drop it. Cheers Tony fd1972uk 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinellaWorksop Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 40 minutes ago, tonythepaint said: Quick question. How long have you regulars been posting your tips and have you been successful. I'm going to give it a year to see if I'm profitable. If not I'll drop it. Cheers Tony I would say if you followed my golf tips you would need a second job to make up for the losses lol. I'm an enthusiastic follower of the sport who plays at small stakes and bet more on the Majors. That all said, one I like the look of for this week's event is: Byeong Hun An 28/1 Hills Best of luck Tony 👍 harry_rag, Torque and fd1972uk 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fd1972uk Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 12 hours ago, MinellaWorksop said: I would say if you followed my golf tips you would need a second job to make up for the losses lol. I'm an enthusiastic follower of the sport who plays at small stakes and bet more on the Majors. That all said, one I like the look of for this week's event is: Byeong Hun An 28/1 Hills Best of luck Tony 👍 Funny you've opted for him, I haven't overall, but have for 1st round leader, along with Hoge, who I have went for the win too. Also went Scott for win. Lucky dips are mcintyre and snedeker. Dad has went Jaeger and Im. Good luck all. MinellaWorksop and tonythepaint 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonythepaint Posted May 2 Author Share Posted May 2 Doing one more. R.Moore 175/1 50p Ew with Spreadex 1/5 odds 6 places fd1972uk, MinellaWorksop and harry_rag 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 On 5/2/2024 at 9:17 AM, tonythepaint said: with Spreadex Do you do much spread betting with them or do you just use them for fixed odds? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonythepaint Posted May 3 Author Share Posted May 3 Sorry Harry I've not got into spread betting. I just opened an account with them because they had the best price for Ryan Moore. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 4 Share Posted May 4 20 hours ago, tonythepaint said: Sorry Harry I've not got into spread betting. I just opened an account with them because they had the best price for Ryan Moore. It tugs at my heart strings to think of a brand new spread betting account going unused! Give me a shout if you ever want to dip your toe in the water. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonythepaint Posted May 4 Author Share Posted May 4 26 minutes ago, harry_rag said: It tugs at my heart strings to think of a brand new spread betting account going unused! Give me a shout if you ever want to dip your toe in the water. Thanks Harry but I wouldn't know where to start. Only really interested in horses and golf for betting purposes. I don't even know if there are spread markets on golf. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonythepaint Posted May 4 Author Share Posted May 4 On 5/1/2024 at 10:36 AM, MinellaWorksop said: I would say if you followed my golf tips you would need a second job to make up for the losses lol. I'm an enthusiastic follower of the sport who plays at small stakes and bet more on the Majors. That all said, one I like the look of for this week's event is: Byeong Hun An 28/1 Hills Best of luck Tony 👍 Hello Minella (what's your real name by the way) Hope you've had a wager on Hun An. Everyone has got an interest going into the weekend. Good Luck 🍀 MinellaWorksop 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 4 Share Posted May 4 18 minutes ago, tonythepaint said: Thanks Harry but I wouldn't know where to start. Only really interested in horses and golf for betting purposes. I don't even know if there are spread markets on golf. There are plenty of spread markets on golf but, to be fair, it’s probably not viable for you given the small stakes approach. If time allows I’ll flag some spread options for backing any picks that are put up next week. Even if you don’t actually place any spread bets, the prices can be a useful reference point when deciding on your fixed odds bets. MinellaWorksop 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinellaWorksop Posted May 4 Share Posted May 4 5 hours ago, tonythepaint said: Hello Minella (what's your real name by the way) Hope you've had a wager on Hun An. Everyone has got an interest going into the weekend. Good Luck 🍀 The name is Stuart. Yes, just a small stakes interest mate, he's doing pretty respectably Mr B. Hun An. Your lad Mitchell going decent as well Tony. Preferably they can both kick on over the weekend 🤞 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 On 5/1/2024 at 9:58 AM, tonythepaint said: Quick question. How long have you regulars been posting your tips and have you been successful. I'm going to give it a year to see if I'm profitable. If not I'll drop it. Cheers Tony I'm not a regular poster here but I do post from time to time and this is a friendly part of the forum. I tend to focus on the head of the market and I've been doing that for a few years now with success - the rationale being that most are looking for a big price winner which means it's sometimes worth backing shorter albeit for a smaller return. I'll be doing the same in this tournament with a bet on Pendrith who's currently in the lead. I'm backing him at 3.16 on the exchanges - which is the price once commission is taken into account. MinellaWorksop, harry_rag and tonythepaint 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonythepaint Posted May 6 Author Share Posted May 6 Well done Torque. Just got over the line. Also well done Stuart or would you rather be called Minella. Hope you had a bit on each way. My choice just dropped away in the 3rd round. Left himself to much to do. Go again next week. MinellaWorksop 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 (edited) 7 hours ago, tonythepaint said: Well done Torque. Just got over the line. Also well done Stuart or would you rather be called Minella. Hope you had a bit on each way. My choice just dropped away in the 3rd round. Left himself to much to do. Go again next week. Cheers Tony. It really should have been a loser with Pendrith a shot behind at the 18th. At that point even a play-off wasn't looking too likely, but after Kohles bogeyed and Pendrith birdied they swapped places. You'd have got good odds on Kohles not to win and no play-off when he stood at the 18th tee that's for sure. I'll take some good fortune though as it very often goes the other way. I've lost count of the times this season already where I've backed a player that's leading or in contention ahead of the final round, only for that player to shoot the worst score on the leaderboard - a feat that Pendrith was on course to match at one point. Edited May 6 by Torque MinellaWorksop 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philipwalsh19 Posted May 8 Share Posted May 8 On 5/1/2024 at 9:58 AM, tonythepaint said: Quick question. How long have you regulars been posting your tips and have you been successful. I'm going to give it a year to see if I'm profitable. If not I'll drop it. Cheers Tony Hi Tony - I've been betting golf tournaments (mainly PGA) for about 18 months. Across 2023 I was up 64% but in 2024 I was down 26%. Overall that leaves me up around 26% on my initial balance. As a rule golf betting is quite high variance - you can go many tournaments without a win, but when the win comes in it'll often cover your losses and fatten up your bank to cover you stakes in the next few tournaments. A good recent article to illustrate this variance - https://www.bookiebashing.net/2024/05/07/you-only-swing-when-youre-winning-2024/ IMHO a 1 year timeframe is too short to form a view on whether you are a profitable golf better. Take this year so far - most tournaments have either been won by Scottie Scheffler (at a short price) or won by relative outsiders. Unusually, very few if any quality PGA events have been won by guys in the 20/1 to 40/1 bracket (...which is usually the sweet spot). Very few golf betters who haven't bet heavily on Scheffler will be in profit in 2024. That doesn't mean their strategies aren't profitable in the long run. What I'd recommend, to help with variance... - Back a few different golfers per tournament (...and analyse their odds so you know what % of the market you are backing with your choices) - Back each-way (...so you get rewarded for near misses) - Don't blindly bet with the same bookie every time. Look at the place terms and compare them using a tool like the one below to see which is best value https://www.golfforecast.co.uk/blog/Each-Way-Golf-Bet-Value-Comparison - Look for value in alternative markets (e.g. Hovland for Top European, Jaeger to finish in Top 10) Torque and MinellaWorksop 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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