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Total Posts -
Posts
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3 hours ago, Trotter said:
I don't think there's any way I'm going to keep this up but thought I'd do some speed figures for todays Curragh meeting. I'd like to do ratings for every meeting that includes a Group race but I don't imagine I will .... It'll soon become a chore that I give up on
Here's the ratings of todays winners - highest to lowest
Procrastinate 102,
Real Force 101,
Brilliant 98,
Money Dancer 93,
Arizona Blaze (2) 90,
Chazzesmee 90,
Merisi Diamond 88,
Global Energy 83This was run on Heavy ground and my going allowance was 88 ...... so the bulk of all the above figures is going allowance
eg Procrastinate ran a figure of 14 then got his 88 going allowance added on
note that my ratings are in lengths per mile ...... so Procrastinate would be 18 lengths per mile quicker than Global Energy ....... in a mile race I'd expect him to beat him by 18 lengths
Just a curio here. What is the distance you use between the numbers eg might sound a bit wonky this but i assume they predict the order that they will finish but by what distances? 102, 101, 98 etc etc. My apologies i didn't read the whole thread which is unforgivable, i got it now.
Edited by Zilzalian
correction -
2 hours ago, Trotter said:
Just the Racing Post and I use their standard times
I think the 'art' in the process comes from working out allowances ...... as for race times the Post has a huge database so their times should be as good as any and as long as you use the same set of times all the time it doesn't really matter ....... it's not absolute figures that matter it's relative figures between horses !
I agree @Trotter the Racing post is as good as any for race times and they are free and instant.
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2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
I know that the place bet element brings about lousy returns usually on L15's and Acca's, apart from your big-priced selections which justifies it as a bet in its own right. However, I am content to recover my whole stake and more sometimes when all of the selections get placed.
With respect and i have to be careful when communicating with you because you seem to be a very sensitive sort and get a bit titsy whenever i challenge your thinking. However in all the time i have been on here you have never won anything apart from a few KO cup competitions and lose money year on year. A few members have given you good advice over the years but you just ignore them or come up with a reason to just carry on regardless. Most bettors are quite prepared to lose pounds to achieve a goal but you are terrified of losing pennies which is very strange because that is what you constantly do, lose pennies that turn into pounds. I have said before you need to throw out everything you are doing and find a different approach/angle because if you keep banging your head against this brick wall you will be spending more money on paracetamol than the horses. In your defence i will say at least you involve yourself in most aspects of the site which is good but that does open you up for responses from other members as does anything i or anyone else might put up.
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5 minutes ago, Trotter said:
I've got that book as well ......... I think it was Mordin that first got me interested in speed figures. I think he used to do a column in The Weekender ? ........ late 80s, early 90s maybe
Yes you are correct, he stated off his "Systems" column when it was the sporting life weekender and carried on when it was taken over by the Racing post.
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12 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
I'll have to dust off my Mordin On Time book !
I seem to recall that he concluded extra weight can slow down fast horses but not speed up slow horses
You are correct that is exactly what he (Mordin) said.
Initially Mordin didn't believe in taking weight into account but he did eventually concede that he was wrong and weight should be included. (I have a different angle).
My experience with speed figures goes back over 35 years and has served me well.
I will write my thoughts down and post when i am sure i have said all i need to say on the subject.
One thing i will say before everyone starts hacking away at producing speed figures is this. Lets say for the sake of argument that speed figures are 30% accurate for graded races, then i can tell you that for handicaps it would be 8%. So if you want to maximise your time the pool of horses in the group/graded races is very manageable.
Bear in mind there are 14,000 horse in training (jumps and flat) just in Britain.
As to your AW suggestion i am guessing but there maybe more aw runners than turf nowadays which is a big number but serves you 12 months of the year.
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