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StevieDay1983

Premier League Predictions > Dec 30th & 31st

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The congested festive fixture list continues this weekend with games coming on Saturday and New Year's Eve. So if you fancy having a punt on a game with the hope of earning a big win to ring in 2018 then share your tips with us right here! :beer

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Don't have much time to explain but I have 2 selections right off the bat:

Huddersfield Town V Burnley = X @ 3.15 Unibet

Newcastle Utd V Brighton & Hove Albion = X @ 3.30 Betfair

I may post a more detailed AH selection later, but currently waiting for official team news.

@StevieDay1983, Pep004 has done a good post regarding Liverpool V Leicester but the crazy fool has posted it in previous EPL thread (Dec 26-28), is it possible to sort out this outrageous infraction? cheers.

 

 

 

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Liverpool V Leicester City

Leicester City +1.75 AH @ 1.86 Betvictor

Agree with @Pep004 on his views for this game, personally I think Leicester price is too big to ignore in this situation. I guess the market loves Liverpool in general and folks maybe a bit put off by Leicester's recent form.

I accept that this is a very hard game to predict and the range of likely outcomes swing wildly here. Both sides could be classed as 'mad dog' teams with quick and deadly attacking capabilities but questionable defensive qualities due to cavalier play and individual errors. If we take a step back from the possible outcomes and just look at the cold facts then we can see metrics favour Liverpool, but not so much that Leicester +1 asian line is 2.95!!! A more realistic offering would be 2.00 imo so I definately agree that all the value is with Leicester here. In terms of recent performance we can see that while Leicester's results have not been so good, they do have nearly a half goal ELO advantage over Liverpool heading into this game which supports the selection further.

To summarise, this is a crazy game between two crazy teams, a cricket score for the home side cannot be ruled out and so this selection may strike fear into the hearts of many. Ultimately I am not trying to make predictions in this business, just find price errors in the market. I believe we have found one here which opens the door to a classic value bet. The result here is extremely uncertain, the value less so in my view.

 

 

 

 

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Bournemouth v Everton FC

Bournemouth: Andrew Surman (17/2 m), Joshua King (17/2 f), Charlie Daniels (18/1 d), Harry Arter (11/1 m)(all doubtful), Junior Stanislas (10/1 m), Jermain Defoe (15/3 f), Adam Federici (0/0 g), Brad Smith (0/0 d), Tyrone Mings (2/0 d)

Everton FC: Idrissa Gana Gueye (19/0 m, doubtful), Leighton Baines (13/2 d), Maarten Stekelenburg (0/0 g), Ross Barkley (0/0 m), Seamus Coleman (0/0 d), Ramiro Funes Mori (0/0 d)

 

Chelsea FC v Stoke City

Chelsea FC: Andreas Christensen (15/0 d, illness, doubtful), Charly Musonda (2/0 m), David Luiz (8/1 d)

Stoke City: Erik Pieters (18/0 d, doubtful), Kurt Zouma (18/1 d, on loan from Chelsea), Ryan Shawcross (15/1 d), Glen Johnson (3/0 d), Bruno Martins Indi (8/0 d), Stephen Ireland (0/0 m), Jesé Rodriguez (9/1 f, personal reasons)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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Liverpool played defensively and cautiously in the first half against us, basically as Klopp was saying they would in his pre-match press conference. The need to play defensively first and foremost, etc. This comes after the loss of the game in the mad five minutes against arsenal.

I can see the same approach here, with Liverpool playing ultra-cautious and reserved until they or Leicester get that first goal.

Funnily enough, and not like themselves at all, Leicester have of late been really going for it a lot more since their new manager took over. Lots of games seeing one or two goals from them by half time.

Leicester to win the first half at 6/1 screams value to me, as does Liverpool to win from behind 11/2. 

Edited by andrewcalo

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Ups, didn't notice that I posted it in wrong thread. Well, if it's possible admin can move it here.

Other matches I've been thinking about are:

Southampton +1,5  1,86.. I guess Man U is simply having a wrong manager to create a lot of chances. Mourinho proved everywhere that he is a magician when it comes to defensive approaches, beating teams with counters, but players as Pogba, Martial, Mata.. I feel really pity for them, because in this team they can only disappear. They are without freedom and you can already notice the drop in their creativity level. Theater of dream will soon become a theater of horror, because their football is simply nonsense. Tell me one god damn player who improved under him last year.. As I have few good friends who are United friends and even if they were all saying "wait for a year, wait for a year,.." Well, year is around and? Except some exceptional individual moves, they are without idea in attack. And don't get me wrong, there are successful have teams playing defensively, but this Man United is using 30% of their potential. It really hurts to see creative players like Mata, Martial, Pogba, and some others dying in this "I don't know what" game. I understand Mou's plans, but what I don't is, why is he buying players like this.

e: I forgot to mention Ander Herrera. People on the island are laughing from him, saying how useless he is.. dear lord. :unsure And about +1,5.. van Dijk, Soares and Bertrand are out for Southampton, so there is probably no value. Any thoughts?

 

N'castle -0,5 @2,2 .. Even though I don't like low odds, I think that Magpies simply need to play football this time. People were disappointed with their approach against City, but Benitez rested almost all important offensive players, while he stayed in the game till the last minute. 

Also Burnley +0,25 looks interesting..

Edited by Pep004

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Both teams, in the most recent games, have only one win, it's not good at all, I expect a very closed game, with the two teams being very skeptical and having few goals
NEWCASTLE UNITED vs BRIGHTON @@ +2.50 Under, odds 1.60 

The two teams easily score and accept the goal, I expect an open match, as Liverpool usually does, where the two teams can score from a goal and give us the goal goals
LIVERPOOL FC vs LEICESTER CITY @@ Both team to score, odds 1.72

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Brighton's last 5 games in Premier League.
Bournemouth have conceded at least 3 goals in their last 3 games in Premier League.
Chelsea have won their last 6 home games in Premier League.
Newcastle have lost their last 5 home games in Premier League.
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 71% of their last 7 games in Premier League.

You can find interesting 69 Football Betting Streaks for 30.12.2017 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-streaks-30-12-2017

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Huddersfield v Burnley BTTS @ 2.2 with Unibet

Despite the fact that Huddersfield found a bit of form lately, they still not seem be able to maintain too many clean sheets during their encounters. They really know how to create chances and also keep the possession in that time and with their forwards on form, I believe they are able to score in this game.

Burnley on the other hand are performing well this season and the good result against Man Utd in the last fixture, they can get more freedom in the way they will connect with this game, not having any real pressure on their hands. I believe this attitude can give you more chances of ending up with some results.

Also, Burnley players do not need too many chances to score, having a more direct way to play and having in Arfield and Gudmundsson two good players that can provide great crosses to create the chances that gave Burnley thus most of their chances and goals this season.

 

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I'm liking Newcastle at home today. They have gone toe to toe with most teams lately and lost by the odd goal etc Arsenal, Everton, Man City etc got a good win against a resurgent Hammers team under Moyes. Benitez has tightened things up since earlier debacles against Watford etcI think this Brighton team are punching above their weight and lack the overall quality to stay in the division, i believe they will slump and end up relegated personally. This is a good game for Newcastle to grab a win and i'm all over the 2.1 currently available for the HW

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footalyct.com -> Providing short previews, missing players and betting suggestions on top 5 leagues!

Newcastle vs Brighton; 16:00

Newcastle will miss defenders Ljeune, Gamez and forward Mitrović, while midfielder Hayden might return to the squad.

Brihgton is coming only without long term injured midfielder Sidwell.

Short preview: fans of Premier League were saying that performance of Newcastle against Manchester City was disgrace for English football, as Benitez sent a bus on the pitch, playing in ultra defensive formation with 5 defenders and mainly defensive minded players higher on the pitch. As he said on press conference he knew that it’s impossible to open up against Citizens right now and second, he was already thinking about next matches and honestly said that match against Brighton is way more important for them. Fans didn’t react badly on his “bus tactics” but they won’t be happy to see unattractive Newcastle today. Against City he decided to rest almost all important creative players, so they are coming in match without tired legs – Ritchie, Merino, Hayden, Atsu, Gayle.. Anyway I found value on odds 2,02 for Newcastle team totals over 1,25 goals!  

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23 hours ago, andrewcalo said:

Liverpool played defensively and cautiously in the first half against us, basically as Klopp was saying they would in his pre-match press conference. The need to play defensively first and foremost, etc. This comes after the loss of the game in the mad five minutes against arsenal.

I can see the same approach here, with Liverpool playing ultra-cautious and reserved until they or Leicester get that first goal.

Funnily enough, and not like themselves at all, Leicester have of late been really going for it a lot more since their new manager took over. Lots of games seeing one or two goals from them by half time.

Leicester to win the first half at 6/1 screams value to me, as does Liverpool to win from behind 11/2. 

:cigar

:cheers

:beer

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I feel like Man United vs Southampton will see under 2.5 goals. 4 of the 5 meetings between these teams have seen less that 2.5 goals.  United is struggling for consistency and Southampton is  coming off a humiliating loss vs Tottenham ( I feel that they may simply park the bus, just like they did against Man City), this looks like a low scoring game. Sporita.com gives this bet a 7.9 out 10 rating, which is pretty high and I also feel like this is valuable bet!

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

Man City have scored in each of their last 20 matches in Premier League.
Crystal Palace conceded at least 1 goal in 100% of their home matches in Premier League.
Crystal Palace have scored at least 2 goals in their last 7 home games in Premier League.
Man City have won their last 7 games against Crystal Palace in all competitions.
West Brom have failed to win their last 18 games in Premier League.

You can find interesting 30 Football Betting Streaks for 31.12.2017 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-streaks-31-12-2017

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I think that hectic schedule will affect Crystal Palace way more than Citizens and that's why I still think that there is no value opposing them. You are losing much 9more energy playing defensively, covering holes, running left, right, trying to get in possession and immediately after doing few counters on full speed ... I didn't check numbers, but I am pretty convinced that Eagles ran much more than Citizens and things like that might affect matches in this period.

From the lineup, we can see that Pep wants to be in lead as soon as possible because he knows that being a goal in front in last 15-20 minutes is a total coin flip on Selhurst Park. Odds around 1,75 seems fine, but I think that we might see them on 1,85+ in first 5 minutes.

 

edit: injured central defender Dann will be substituted ... Even though things weren't as good as expected from City, I am taking @2,28 for them to win 1st half.

Edited by Pep004

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On 29/12/2017 at 2:08 PM, Mindfulness said:

Don't have much time to explain but I have 2 selections right off the bat:

Huddersfield Town V Burnley = X @ 3.15 Unibet

Newcastle Utd V Brighton & Hove Albion = X @ 3.30 Betfair

I may post a more detailed AH selection later, but currently waiting for official team news.

@StevieDay1983, Pep004 has done a good post regarding Liverpool V Leicester but the crazy fool has posted it in previous EPL thread (Dec 26-28), is it possible to sort out this outrageous infraction? cheers.

 

 

 

You're making a fortune out of the mighty BHA this season!   Just wait till we sign a couple of strikers in Jan, we will be turning those bore draws into wins hopefully!,

Youve had some good selections recently, hope it carries on into next season.

Happy New Year to everyone on here

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14 minutes ago, Tiffy said:

You're making a fortune out of the mighty BHA this season!   Just wait till we sign a couple of strikers in Jan, we will be turning those bore draws into wins hopefully!,

Youve had some good selections recently, hope it carries on into next season.

Happy New Year to everyone on here

Thanks Tiffy, appreciated. Let's stay focused and keep improving to make it a good 2018.

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