andrewcalo

p.s. do you know of any fixed matches in Iran?

I too will work on Saturday. I am probably going to watch Burnley game Saturday and on Monday I will watch the Liverpool game against Swansea, which looks full of promise. What do you plan to do on Tuesday?

@teddybear3011 do you have any plans for this weekend?

FA cup third round replay results 2012 2h 2d 1a 2013 4h 1d 1a 2014 4h 3d 4a 2014 5h 1d 3a 2015 4h 2d 1a 2016 6h 2d 2a 2017 5h 0d 4a As y'all can see, we only dropped below the four home wins when there were only 5 replays to play. I think 2 more home wins and a draw tonight, guv.

@allthethings any chance you can have a look at the Norwich game? Got me a funny feeling in my left ball.

We almost won it last time, and would have if the blind ref hadn't sent our man off (red card was later rescinded). Don't pay to much attention to the press conference in this case - Carvalhal is rotating the squad because he's a new manager trying to get a fix on a first team he likes. I said at least a draw last time so I'm on that again. And the Liberty Stadium is not an easy place to get a result on a cold South Wales night.

So taking into account all things, I am putting this ACCA down: Swansea Wigan Cardiff Stevenage +1 Shrewsbury +1 Carlisle +1 Courtesy of @betcatalog Marseille and O 2.5 Nice Monaco BTTS Total odds 675. Worth a quid. Of course there might be more than 4 home wins, and that mucks it up for us, but this is kind of the logic behind big ACCa betting - you are taking a huge risk anyway. Might as well stake your hand on some consistent system and the risk will land once every while. ATM it is landing for me once a month lol.

I'm looking for patterns, variations on the norm, and the likelihood of a return to normal - for instance, we can say with some certainty that there will be at least 4 home wins, just because that's the norm over the last four years.

I am settled on 4 home, 2 draws, 2 away HOME Leicester Chelsea Swansea Wigan DRAW West Ham v Shrewsbury Reading v Stevenage AWAY Cardiff Carlisle

FA cup third round replay results 2014 5h 1d 3a 2015 4h 2d 1a 2016 6h 2d 2a 2017 5h 0d 4a This suggests on averages alone that we will see 4 home, 1 draw, 3 away. Though you have to take into account swings away from the average that must right themselves. I would say we are looking at 4-5 home wins, 1-2 draws, and 2 aways.

Ah I see, right. I am coming back with an ACCA now. Well, in 30 minutes. I did very well on the Bristol c Man U game, as you know, what I did not broadcast is that on the Sunday of the round of 32 I made £540 on a £5 bet and could have made £1700 had I not cashed out. Proof below. I am studying homes draws aways and will use this info to assess too. coming back with my findings shortly. p.s. I used your stats to guess the outcomes of those three FA Cup fixtures, along with the fact that we were way down on the average number of home wins for this Sunday. Last three years have seen double digit home wins, 11, 12, 12, and we were on 7 or 8 by then. So there had to be more home wins then jsut Tottenham and possible Brighton. Then I just had to use this together with your stats, and I too ka guess that Leeds would muck up again, and Shrewsbury would shine and hold West Ham. Forest was the one I was particularly concerned about, however I got lucky with the crap team Wenger put out.

No more? Are you including Carlisle as a team similar to Shrewsbury then?

Thanks @StevieDay1983 @allthethings fyi: I follow tipsters and one of them I have been keeping an eye on is due a win by now on his tips for English leagues - and tonight he is on Carlisle +1.5 He thinks it will be a very close game. Carlisle to qualify fits your pattern.

@StevieDay1983 what about injuries?

@allthethings any thoughts on tonights games? I can't see Leicester losing. West Ham look okay too.