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About Snoopdog

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 03/20/56

    Paddy generally lets you choose the number of places for Place Only (especially extra places in the big field Saturday Heritage Handicaps). Of course the odds decline with increasing number of places. [My late father, ex bookie used to say it amazed him how in an apparantly impossible handicap that come SP time, the punters had figured it out and the fav won.] I have concluded that my E/W and PO betting is less successful than my win bets. It always feels like you've backed a loser, if you bet PO and it wins. As a result, I now tend to keep PO bets for when I want to back more than one horse in a race. Suggest you quote the bookie, PO odds and number of places in PO selections. In the hunt for value, I try to avoid accepting worse than ~ 1/5 the win odds on PO3, or worse than 1/6 the win odds on PO4, 1/7 the win odds on PO5. Occasionally you find an anomaly where E/W terms are 1/5 E/W3, yet PO3 is higher than 1/5 win. In those cases if you want to bet E/W, then do separate win and place bets.
  2. Forecast Odds

    Hmmm. My formula doesn't work very well either. Strad = 4/5; Torcedor = ~ evens w/o Strad 4/5 x 1+1 = 1.6/1 which also does not fit well. On that basis, I think the f/c was value.
  3. Forecast Odds

    In an obvious forecast like the Goodwood 3.35 : Stradivarius 4/5 (clear and odds-on fav) beats Torcedor 100/30 (clear 2nd fav), the odds basic rule of thumb (of add 1 to 2nd, multiply by winner) does not work well. Ie 4/5 x 3.33+1 = 3.464/1 I don't have to hand the w/o Stradivarius price of Torcedor, but I think: add 1 to the w/o price of the 2nd fav, then multipy by the fav price would be much closer. The forecast paid £3.80 = 2.8/1 Does anyone have the w/o Strad price of Torcedor near the off, or other related ideas? There seems a lack of transparancy re forecast (CSF) odds.
  4. RP web site

    I think it's about time I gave Firefox a cleanup!
  5. RP web site

    When looking at the racecards on the RP website, the cards complete very quickly, but loading the live prices can take an age (sometimes minutes). Is this just me? 3GHz sinlge core, 4Gb RAM, Windows 7 16 bit, 100Mbps broadband. Firefox.
  6. opposing short priced favourites

    Why not just lay the shorty. If you want to trial a system, BETDAQ will let you do a 50p lay. If you can find odds-on to oppose, then of couse liability is less than stake.

    I totally agree: 1. More runners, then more chances of a big surprise (as you imply). 2. More runners, then higher bookie's over-round.
  8. Denman

    And the rivally with Kauto and the larger than life Harry Findlay made for a great period of racing
  9. Greyhound Derby

    What a mess the sport is in! There's an article in today's Daily Mail. Anyway, tonight is Greyhound Derby night from Towcester (9.07pm). Sky nights seems to have ended. [I wish VirginMedia would carry RPGTV.] To watch go to: You Tube "Towcester TV". The 6/4 fav, Droopy's Veve was only 2 yesterday! Only 15 races, 11 wins 4 seconds.
  10. Sky Sports Racing vs R-UK

    I expect we all know about the ATR rebrand to Sky Sports Racing, and getting Bangor and Chester. This mornings Daily Mail says that the SSR channel is going after Ascot, and the extra exposure on SSR will be an Ascot consideration when bids are considered. It's a pity ATR wasn't a bit more aggressive sooner. Racing needs a free outlet, rather than a niche audience.

    Baracca, I recall hearing in the early days of PL tips that 3 doubles was working better than 1 treble. I don't know about recently. It should impove the strike rate (if not ROI) which keeps up interest. I'm interested to know myself as I was going to advise this as an automatic system bet for the other half to get into this game.
  12. stake size in proportion of the odds

    VT is surely correct if you bet ~ Even money chances and ~ 33/1 chances. However my bets tend to be either ~6/4-2/1 or ~7/2-5/1 (that's what my systems produce). I used to bet 1pt the shorter ones, 0.8pt the longer ones. I have done better since changing to level stakes. Books like "Betting for a Living" - Nick Mordon and "Against the Odds" - Alan Potts even suggest you should have more on the longer prices. I can't bring myself to that. [Digressing from staking, The worst value often lies between 4/6 and 6/4 as those are the horses the public love to back - per bookmaker Geoff Banks.]
  13. Racing Chat -Thurs 12th April (Aintree day 1)

    Bronxie, You are correct about the offer, but it is for new customers and there are restrictions on use of the free bet. Good luck.
  14. Racing Chat -Thurs 12th April (Aintree day 1)

    Bronxie, I use PP, and don't see that offer. I see: "Money Back as a Free Bet on All Losers on the First 5 Races at Aintree on Thursday and Friday if the SP favourite Wins! Pre-race singles only. Max Free Bet €/£10. (T&Cs apply)" Maybe your offer is to buy new customers ??? Of course the fav may not win. But if you fancy it, might as well have a couple of extra bets. I think that offer is often made when the bookie feels he has a good chance fo getting the fav beat.
  15. My little value method

    I know how you feel. On the occasions when back Place Only, if it goes and wins, it feels like backing a loser.