Snoopdog

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About Snoopdog

  • Rank
    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 03/20/56
  1. NFL 2018/19

    It's Thanksgiving! I'm taking Chic -3 in the 5.30pm game.
  2. NFL 2018/19

    Week 11: Cincy +6; Carol -4.5; LAC -7; KC +3.5 FYI: In recent weeks the Hilton Contest top 5 pix at: https://www.thespread.com/nfl-super-contest-picks-from-the-las-vegas-hilton have gone 5-0 twice in recent weeks. That's a ~ 25/1 acca. They normally do it once per regular season. Maybe that means they wont do it again this season. They have also had a -5 week this year.
  3. NFL 2018/19

    Week 5 Tenn -5.5; Carol -6.5; Balt -3; Denver -1; Pitt -3; Wash +6.5
  4. NFL 2018/19

    FYI: You can check out the pix from the Hilton Contest at: https://www.thespread.com/nfl-super-contest-picks-from-the-las-vegas-hilton Now that the season has had a few weeks to settle, they are also showing the picks of the top 10 contestants. Top1-5 are 13-2; top 6-10 are 12-2-1. (This is in addition to the overall # picks for each team.) I'm not proud. I'll take any help I can get.
  5. NFL 2018/19

    Week 4 Tenn +3; Cincy +3.5; Jax -7.5
  6. NFL 2018/19

    Here's my week 3 pix. Hoping for better than my useless week 2. Spreads are PP. Balt -6; KC -6; Miami -3; GB -2.5; Cincy +3; NE -7. I'll be flipping between the golf (Tiger vs Rory and Justin) and the NFL. Don't know about you guys, but until towards the playoffs, I tend to only watch NFL Red Zone rather than complete games. My attention span is short.
  7. NFL 2018/19

    You went 2-3 which is much better than my 0-4. Most of my "so called" guides had a bad week. The Top 5 pix in the Hilton Contest went 0-5! (after 4-1 in week 1).
  8. NFL 2018/19

    I use CBS Power Ranking. See: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/powerrankings/ Then allow 0.5pts per position, eg team #20 is worh 5.5 pts over team #31 (31-20)/2 = 5.5 Then award 3 pts for home field advantage. I also like to look at the pix for the Hilton Handicapping Contest in Vegas (now Westage). These are shown by Sunday morning at: https://www.thespread.com/nfl-super-contest-picks-from-the-las-vegas-hilton People have to pay ~ $1500 to enter that contest, so there are some good people in. HTH
  9. NFL 2018/19

    Thursday night is Balt @ Cincy by 1. Power rankings suggest Cincy by 2, so no bet. [However my gut feel is Balt.]
  10. NFL 2018/19

    I'm going to continue with a system I developed last year based on CBS Power Rankings, and selections for the Westgate, Las Vegas (was Hilton) Handicapping Contest. I know things haven't yet settled down, but I'm itching to start. Week 1 pix are: (all one point at ~ 10/11) Balt -7.5 WIN Pitt -3.5 LOSE Cincy +2 WIN Minne -6.5 WIN NO -10 LOSE Carol -2.5 WIN Denver -3 PUSH Detroit -6.5 TONIGHT I'll be flipping between the golf and NFL tonight Reasonable start. Pitt really blew a good lead. Didn't see the Tampa/NO result coming but I have previously noticed it can often be a worthwhile bet to back the biggest dog (Tampa +10) straight up / money line. I guess they were about 4/1. Yesterday's TV was runied - no golf (rain), no Nascar (rain), no US Open tennis (don't have Amazon Prime). I think we get the golf and Nascar today.
  11. NFL 2018/19

    I'm going to continue with a system I developed last year based on CBS Power Rankings, and selections for the Westgate, Las Vegas (was Hilton) Handicapping Contest. I know things haven't yet settled down, but I'm itching to start. Week 1 pix are: (all one point at ~ 10/11) Balt -7.5 Pitt -3.5 Cincy +2 Minne -6.5 NO -10 Carol -2.5 Denver -3 Detroit -6.5 I'll be flipping between the golf and NFL tonight
  12. EXTRA PLACE RACES

    Paddy generally lets you choose the number of places for Place Only (especially extra places in the big field Saturday Heritage Handicaps). Of course the odds decline with increasing number of places. [My late father, ex bookie used to say it amazed him how in an apparantly impossible handicap that come SP time, the punters had figured it out and the fav won.] I have concluded that my E/W and PO betting is less successful than my win bets. It always feels like you've backed a loser, if you bet PO and it wins. As a result, I now tend to keep PO bets for when I want to back more than one horse in a race. Suggest you quote the bookie, PO odds and number of places in PO selections. In the hunt for value, I try to avoid accepting worse than ~ 1/5 the win odds on PO3, or worse than 1/6 the win odds on PO4, 1/7 the win odds on PO5. Occasionally you find an anomaly where E/W terms are 1/5 E/W3, yet PO3 is higher than 1/5 win. In those cases if you want to bet E/W, then do separate win and place bets.
  13. Forecast Odds

    Hmmm. My formula doesn't work very well either. Strad = 4/5; Torcedor = ~ evens w/o Strad 4/5 x 1+1 = 1.6/1 which also does not fit well. On that basis, I think the f/c was value.
  14. Forecast Odds

    In an obvious forecast like the Goodwood 3.35 : Stradivarius 4/5 (clear and odds-on fav) beats Torcedor 100/30 (clear 2nd fav), the odds basic rule of thumb (of add 1 to 2nd, multiply by winner) does not work well. Ie 4/5 x 3.33+1 = 3.464/1 I don't have to hand the w/o Stradivarius price of Torcedor, but I think: add 1 to the w/o price of the 2nd fav, then multipy by the fav price would be much closer. The forecast paid £3.80 = 2.8/1 Does anyone have the w/o Strad price of Torcedor near the off, or other related ideas? There seems a lack of transparancy re forecast (CSF) odds.
  15. RP web site

    I think it's about time I gave Firefox a cleanup!