jamiedavies02

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About jamiedavies02

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    jamie.d02

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  1. FIFA World Club Cup 2017

    Pachuca (MEX) through to the Semi Finals to face Copa Libertadores winners Gremio (BRA) - I'll be looking to side with the Brazilians if they open up odds against
  2. MLS Play-Off Predictions > Dec 9th

    Toronto v Seattle Head to Head Story so far... Ratings Final Thoughts As some of you may be aware I'm already on Seattle for MLS Cup glory at 8/1 - at the time (little over a month ago) I stated that I believed Toronto were the best team in the league but their price was too short and Seattle were the value selection. After the conclusion of the Conference finals I still believe Toronto are the best side but the gap between the two is much smaller. The match prices look about right to me so I won't be getting involved in anything too serious.. this is a repeat of last years final were I was on Toronto at a decent price and Seattle won on penalties, so this year I may have a small bet on Toronto to win on penalties for shits and gigs.
  3. FIFA World Club Cup 2017

    Marathonbets opening odds of 6/5 about Urawa look too big, should be odds on in my opinion, a veiw shared by some eastern European firms who have them around 10/11. A bit more info on the prices for this match; Urawa recently played Al Hilal in the AFC Champs League final, in those two matches only home advantage seperated the sides, infact I argued in the ACL thread that Urawa should have been favoured. Al Hilal actually played Al Jazira in this seasons ACL - they went off 5/6 in the UAE, now I'm of the opinion that Urawa are atleast as good as Al Hilal and should therefore be atleast the same price their Saudi rivals were if not a touch shorter. Bet Urawa Reds to beat Al Jazira - 6/5 @ Marathonbet
  4. FIFA World Club Cup 2017

    Al Jazira through to face Urawa on Saturday after a 1-0 win, should have lost in fairness with Auckland dominating - will be looking to side with Urawa if odds against. Pachuca v Wydad prices look about right
  5. Champions League Predictions > Dec 5th & 6th

    I've been looking into the Outright market this morning, I think at 7/2 PSG look too short, they've not been beyond the QF in the last 6 seasons and shown that they're not untouchable losing 2-1 Strasbourg at the weekend before going down 3-1 in Munich last night - albeit with top spot in the group all but secured. Similarly I can't be having Man City at 9/2; yes they're flying at the minute but May is 5 months away and they have also shown vulnerabilities in recent weeks needing late goals to see off Huddersfield, Southampton and West Ham and have only 1 semi final appearance to boast of in the past 6 years. I'm liking the look of 3 European powerhouses, 3 teams that are constantly there or thereabouts come the business end of the competition, those 3 teams are Real Madrid, Barcelona and Bayern Munich; if you was to dutch these teams at best odds pays around 13/8, this looks a rock solid investment to me and one were you would have had atleast 1 runner in the last 9 finals. Bet Real Madrid, Barcelona or Bayern Munich to win the Champions League - 13/8 (Best prices dutched)
  6. The 2017 edition of the FIFA Club World Cup kicks off in the UAE tomorrow; Al Jazira v Auckland City Current UAE Champions and tournament hosts Al Jazira are 10/11 to see off the OFC Champions Auckland CIty. The UAE side may not be the champions of their confederation but the coefficient of the league still rates it as the 2nd best in Asia, there probably isn't much between Al Jazira and the newly crowned AFC Champions Urawa Red Diamonds. Since the 2011 competition AFC sides have faced OFC sides on 4 occasions, the AFC side has won all 4. Not only have they won all four, the AFC side have gone off at around 4/9, 1/2, 1/5 and 2/9 for those matches. Again since 2011 AFC sides have an overall record in the competition of 13-6-11 compared to the OFC's 1-3-5; in the 9 matches contested by an OFC side (all Auckland City) the biggest price their opponents have been is 4/6. One thing to be aware of is that Auckland did record a victory in the UAE in 2009 before my research began Recommended Bet Al Jazira to win - 10/11 @ William Hill
  7. FA Cup Predictions > Dec 1st - 4th

    It may only be 2nd round day but I like West Brom as an early bird each way shout for FA Cup glory come May time, they are as big as 80/1 (1/2 1-2). Here's my thoughts; West Brom currently sit 17th in the Premier League, there's no disputing that. That however, doesn't tell the full story for me; on my ratings they are the 11th best team in the league. Former manager Tony Pulis was sacked a fortnight again and this week the Baggies appointed Alan Pardew. Now I'm not Pardew's biggest fan by any stretch, but he is a 2 time FA Cup runner up after guiding West Ham and Crystal Palace to finals in the last decade or so. I must admit before his appointment I was struggling to find an early bird each way shout for this seasons competition - however I made a note of West Brom when I heard his first presser as a manager were he stated the following; "I've come close twice, very, very close to winning the FA Cup, and one day I would like to do it. That's the kind of ambition I'm talking about." - this to me is a signal of intent that he will be taking this competition seriously. I actually fancied West Brom to do well in last years competition, sadly they were dumped out in R3 by Derby after leading 1-0, in the 2 seasons prior to that they reached the QF and R5. Recommended Bet West Brom to win the FA Cup (ew) 80/1 @ Bet365
  8. ACL 2017

    Winner.
  9. Scottish FA Cup Predictions > Nov 18th - 21st

    I was indeed.. lost on penalties in the final to Seattle... this year I'm on Seattle so I expect a role reversal! Not an ideal draw for Hibs with an away tie at Edinborough rivals Hearts awaiting them in the 4th round
  10. Scottish FA Cup Predictions > Nov 18th - 21st

    Scottish FA Cup I think Hibernian are overpriced to lift the Scottish Cup at 20/1. I'll begin by saying with Celtic's domestic dominance they're probably playing for 2nd place here; that being said, there is plenty to like about Hibs chances at the price; They rank a comfortable 2nd in my SPL ratings after 13 matches (see below) Their form in the Scottish Cup (most recent on the left) is SF-W-SF-R5-RU-RU Manager Neil Lennon is a 2x Scottish Cup winner with Celtic They are more than double the price of Aberdeen and Rangers despite ranking above them in my ratings, they are 2 points behind Aberdeen and 1 point above Rangers in the league albeit having played a game more, theyve already drew 2-2 at Celtic Park this season, won 3-2 at Ibrox but succumbed 1-0 at home to Aberdeen. Bet Hibernian to win the Scottish Cup (EW) @ 20/1 bet365 & Stan James
  11. Serie A Predictions > Nov 18th - 20th

    Benevento v Sassuolo In my opinion the 16/5 available about the home win is plain wrong - yes I know Benevento sit pointless at the bottom of the league but hear me out. I'll start of by saying this is a value pick rather then a ratings driven pick, let me explain why; Arguement 1 - Back in August Benevento hosted Bologna in their 1st home match of the season, they where priced at 7/4, one month later Sassuolo hosted Bologna and where priced at 11/10; the 11/10 about Sassuolo suggests that if you take out home advantage there isn't too much betwenn Sass and Bol suggesting that at home to Sassuolo Benevento should be a similar price to what they where at home against Bologna. Arguement 2 - Sassuolo visited (also) newly promoted SPAL last month, SPAL were available at 13/8; are SPAL really that much better then Benevento? Not on my shots ratings they're not. Looning at the arguments presented above, I think the market will move towards Benevento before the off - I'd still make Sass favs but only slight, I rate Benevento around the 15/8 mark Recommended Bet Benevento to win 16/5 @ Betvictor
  12. Copa Libertadores 2017

    Copa Libertadores 2017 - Outright They aren't much of a price but I think Gremio are outstanding value to win the Copa Libertadores at 4/5 (bet365) - I think they should be closer to 4/7, Dmoestic Matters I've included below my Brazilian Serie A ratings for the last year and Argentine Primera ratings taken over the same period (STR - Orange) As you can see I rate Gremio as one of the top Brazilian sides over the course of the last year, Lanus on the other hand, despite winning the title last season find themselves in an upper midtable position as far as my ratings go. Competition Notes Since 2011/12 Brazilian sides have a strike rate of 0.585 in Copa Libertadores matches, Argentine sides strike rate is slightly lower ar 0.561 Brazilian sides have won 4 of the last 8 tournements with 1 further final appearance Argentine sides have won 3 of the last 8 tournements with 1 further final appearance H2H in Copa Lib matches Brazilian sides hold a slight lead; 26-17-23, both nations however tend to be very strong at home. Misc Gremio faced Argentine side Godoy Cruz in the L16, they were priced at 1.43 for the home leg and 2.32 for the away leg and before the 1st leg they was 1/2 To Qualify. If we refer back to my Argentine ratings above and compare Godoy Cruz and Lanus, you'll see that there is'nt much between the two sides on my ratings with Lanus being prefferred. So, the prices for Gremio v Godoy Cruz seem a good starting point, as my ratings favour Lanus over Godoy I'll make some adjustments and push out Gremio a touch and shorten Lanus, I think a fair price for Gremio would be around 1.66 for the home leg and around 2.65 for the away, again taking into the difference between Lanus and Godoy I'd have Gremio around 4/7 for the outright with Lanus 5/4.
  13. MLS Play-Off Predictions > Oct 30th - Nov 1st

    I like Seattle Sounders in the Outright market at 8/1 (Various). I must start by admitting that on my ratings Toronto are the best team left in the competition and in the whole of the MLS, they are for me a little short though at around the 9/4. They'll face 2 tough matches in the Conference phase of proceedings against NYRB and in my opinion NYCFC before a home final against the winners of the Western Conference. I have them at around 6/4 to win the Eastern Conference and the 9/4 available for the Outright suggests they'll be around 3/10 for the final which is miles too short. Seattle rank as the 2nd best team remianing in the Westen Conference, behind Houston, looking back over match prices this season I make them 8/13 to progress past Vancouver, I'd then have them a similar price to beat Houston or Portland which makes them around 7/4 to win their Conference. When they hosted Toronto earlier in the season they were around 4/5, which suggests the market only sepearates them by home advantage, meaning Toronto would be around 4/5 for 90 minutes for the final, now I would expect them to be shorter - just not significantly, I'd say Toronto 1/2 Seattle 6/4 for the Outright, the combined odds only come to around 6/1, thus for me atleast, making Seattle the value selection in the Outright.
  14. ACL 2017

    Urawa qualified for the final with a 1-0 victory over Shanghai SIPG - 188Bet have posted their Outright odds, they have Urawa at 9/10 with Al Hilal favoured at 4/5, these odds are still wrong for me, Urawa should be alot shorter. Bet Urawa Reds to win the ACL @ 9/10 188Bet
  15. ACL 2017

    There's been a big drift on Urawa to win the match, I still stand by what I said originally - in my opinion only home advantage separates these two sides, at the prices I'd be a backer of the home side