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About jamiedavies02

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  1. Arsenal v Chelsea Based on my shots ratings Chelsea are a far better side than Arsenal. Arsenal have lost 9 league matches this matches, of those 9, 5 have been by 2+ goals,18 of Chelsea's 30 wins have been by 2+ goals. If Chelsea take the lead, especially if it's an early one, I can see Arsenal completing folding. Another scenario is that should they go 1-0 down, being a final they will have to press for an equaliser and will be vulnerable to a counter attack. On top of the statstical analysis, Arsenal have some what of a defensive crisis. It's worth bearing in mind that Chelsea have won a league high of 12 matches by the solitary goal, that being said, I'll be keeping the one goal margin onside. Chelsea -0.75 1/1 @ Paddy Power (Chelsea win by 1 half win half void, Chelsea win by 2 or more full win, draw or Arsenal and bet is a loser)
  2. Celtic v Aberdeen Celtic/Celtic HT/ FT has landed in 24 of 34 of Celtics league wins this season - they have led at HT in 27 of 38 matches, Aberdeen have trailed at HT on 7 occasions this season, they have gone on to win 1 and lose 6 of said matches, of there 10 losses in 6 of those they have lost HT/ FT Celtic/ Celtic HT/ FT 5/4 @ Coral Reading v Huddersfield These two sides traded 1-0 home wins in the regular season and we look set for another tight match. Huddersfield won a league high 22 matches by a 1-goal margin last season, who tied for 2nd; Reading with 18 (Sheff Wed the other). Those who like they're shot data (ie me) will no doubt want to side with Huddersfield who on my ratings are far superior to Reading, this is however a final and Reading upset the shot data ratings knocking out Fulham in the semi's, I expect luck to play some part in Monday's match and will look to keep both sides onside. Either side to win by a 1 goal margin 5/4 @ Betway
  3. Stabaek have made an impressive start to the season - as you can see in my above post no team in the league currently has a better STD, this Sunday they travel to Molde who rank 12th in the same table. I've taken 1.82 Stabaek +0.75 with 888.
  4. Knockout stages for this began yesterday... This afternoon sees the Champions of Iran (Persepolis) take on the Champions of Qatar (Lekhwiya) - take a look at the table below, the coefficients of the 2 leagues are almost identical, the respective nations win-rates in the ACL since 2011 are very similar, the 2 nations head to head record in the same time frame is 11-11-10 and finally the clubs ACL strike rates are quite closeley matched, the draw is available at 23/10 here and I think it could be a big player. 28% of ACL matches end up a draw, with 10% of matches finishing 0-0 - the only thing putting me off the unders and 0-0 too is the fact that the Qatar league boasts one of the highest average goals-per-game ratio in world football,the Iranian league would be in the mid-to-lower end of the spectrum. Recommended bet Persepolis v Lekhwiya to be a draw @ 23/10 (Various)
  5. Since 2011/12 Dutch teams record v English clubs in the UCL and UEL is P10 W5 D3 L2, I'll be having a small go on Ajax to Lift The Trophy @ 2/1 (Various)
  6. Shots based ratings after 10 matches* *AIK & Goetborg only played 9 matches
  7. Shot based ratings after 10 rounds of matches...
  8. After a busy few months redesinging and rebuilding various models and spreadhseets from scratch, I'm back with my first MLS post of the season (my first post for a good few months full stop actually)... To kick things back off, here's my shots ratings for the 2017 season so far - I've decided to simplify things this season, previously I took into account goals scored and conceeded as well as shots on/ off target when forming my ratings, this season I'm only considering shots on target (both for and against). I'll be back posting should any punting opportunities arise
  9. Judging by the tumbleweed blowing around this thread I'm assuming nobody followed me in? Braun currently 2/1 fav, added Seth Rollins at 25/1 to my portfolio. Current odds below;
  10. Can somebody tell me why Almagro is outsider against Chardy? I make him fav?
  11. The African Cup of Nations starts on Saturday, odds and a few tit-bits below; Host; Gabon (Central Africa) Holders; Ivory Coast Outright I like Ghana at 9/1, their form figures for the previous 5 renewals read RU-SF-SF-RU-SF. I think Burkina Faso (40/1) and DR Congo (28/1) could outperform their price. Matchday 1 Notes BTTS odds against in all 8 opening group games - 23/39 (59%) opening matches since 2008 seen BTTS, implied odds of 8/11. There have been 16 draws in the same matches (41%) - implied oddsa of 7/5. Despite BTTS being 23/39, over 2.5 has only occurred 14 times (36%) - implied odds of 7/4. Putting together all of the above, playing 1-1 correct score may be the way to go in the first round of matches.
  12. Stan James haven't changed their prices since the 4th round draw - at the prices I like Middlesbrough e/w @ 66/1, a home draw in round 4 against Accrington, win that and they'll be in the 5th round, time to take the competition seriously.
  13. ....well this went well.