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About jamiedavies02

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  1. Champions League Predictions > Feb 13th - 21st

    Also really like Real Madird at odds against at home to PSG. Yes they've been stumbling domestically this season but on my numbers their performances are better than the results suggest; for me there isn't much between themselves and Barcelona. They have a formidable home European record since 11/12 of 32-6-2. Last season when Barcelona hosted PSG Barce were 8/15, I know that takes into account the fact that PSG were sitting on a 4-goal lead from the first leg. The last time Real Madrid hosted PSG was in November 2015, they were 5/6. PSG on the other hand have an away European record of 14-5-11 which is more than respectable; but a closer look at those 14 away wins shows their only win away at a top European side was at Stamford Bridge when they beat Chelsea 2-1, they have picked up draws against Arsenal, Chelsea and Barcelona but generally speaking when they travel to a top side they get beat. Real Madrid -0.25 @ 27/25 with Bet365
  2. Champions League Predictions > Feb 13th - 21st

    Once again I'll be opposing Liverpool tonight - since 2011/12 their away record in the Champions/ Europa League proper is 4-10-5 with the 4 victories coming against Maribor, Rubin Kazan, Udinese and Young Boys. Over the same period Portos home record is a solid 17-6-7, and granted it's not the strongest league in the world but domestically Porto are unbeaten this season and will be full of confidence. Porto +0.25 @ 10/11 with Bet365
  3. Asian Champions League Predictions 2018

    The Group Stages for the 2018 edition of the Asian Champions League kick off on Monday. I'm armed with a full results and price history from the last 4 editions of this and I'm hoping it pays dividends; Quite often the case with competitions like this one bookmaker will put a price up that is wrong and the rest will follow resulting in the whole industry being wrong. Group Stage Draw Matchday 1 Info & Tissue
  4. Premier League Predictions > Feb 3rd - 5th

    Skybet go 11/8 30+ Watford Booking Points . This is a touch of value for me, Bet365 make the same bet 6/5. Over the last year Watford have picked up atleast 3 cards in 50% of their home Premier League matches (implied odds of 1/1),only West Ham and West Brom are averaging more cards for per game whilst only Man Citys' opponents have been carded more than Chelseas'. Add to that its a London derby, Chelsea will have the lions share of possesion so there'll be plenty of opportunity for fouls. The 11/8 on offer is more than fair for me.
  5. Boxing > 03/02

    A few fights tonight so thought I'd fire a thread up.. Lawrence Okolie and Isaac Chamberlain headline the live Sky card at the O2 tonight and I think it could be worth siding with the latter to cause an upset. Okolie is currently regarded as a top prospect in the cruiserweight division and in my opinion, he's priced on what people think he will go on to achieve rather than what he has done thus far. Sky and Matchroom have done a fantastic job of promoting and hyping former-Olympian Okolie; A losing quarter finalist 2 years ago in Rio, he only had around 30 amatuer fights, so he doesn't have a wealth of amatuer experience to call upon. In the pro game he's faught a series of tomato cans, opponents selected to make him look good, again in my opinion he hasn't looked as polished as you'd expect of someone with Olympic experince. Onto Chamberlain, don't get me wrong the list of his career wins to date is that of a similar level of Okolie, one name on his resume stands out to me; Wadi Camacho, now Camacho is no world beater by any stretch of the imagination, but he's the best name on either mans resume. What's interesting about that fight is that Chamberlain actually disolocated his shoulder in the 3rd round and boxed his way to a 10-round decision win, this for me ticks the gut-check/ heart box, something that Okolie has yet to display - granted he hasn't had too. Both men have had some quality sparring in the buildup to this fight, and I must stress that they've only had 16 pro fights between them and either man could be anything. I'll be watching the fight and I'll be having a small interest bet on Chamberlain at 6/4, Chamberlain on points also of interest at 3/1, on what we've seen of both men so far in their careers I make this a genuine 50/50 fight, mayber slighty favouring Chamberlain.
  6. Premier League Predictions > Feb 3rd - 5th

    West Brom look overpriced to me at home to a poor Southampton side, I'd be keen to keep the draw onside (to a degree) however so I'd prefer West Brom -0.25
  7. Coppa Italia Predictions > 2017/18

    Forgot to add the 2nd leg falls between Juventus' meetings with Tottenham in the Champions League, Atalanta could be out of the Europa League by then
  8. Coppa Italia Predictions > 2017/18

    Funnily enough I've been having a look over this this morning, no bets in either match although I do have some thoughts re the outright. Interestingly, Atalanta are available at 16/1 for Coppa Italia glory - they face Juventus in the semi-final in which theyre 9/4 to qualify. If you divide the 16/1 to win outright by 9/4 to qualify that makes them around 4/1 to win the final should they make it - they're only 9/4 against Juventus so there is absolutely no way they'll be anywhere near that price, in fact, looking at recent price history you could even make them favs should they end up playing Milan. They're odds on to exit at the semi-final stage but on prices alone they're the value bet. FYI I've attached my Serie A ratings below
  9. Next weekend sees the return of the FA Cup for the 4th Round fixtures. Only a handful of firms up with odds so I'll delay posting a list for a few days. I've had a quick look over the prices and one that immediately jumps out at me is the 19/20 available about Swansea away at Notts County. If you look back at 3rd round day,there was 2 fixtures that fit the L2 v Prem profile; Exeter v West Brom and Coventry v Stoke, the odds for West Brom and Stoke were 2/5 and 8/13 respectively. Now I must admit that I rate Swansea as the worst team in the Premier League, but Stoke aren't much bette rwhilst I rate West Brom as a midtable side. Down in League Two Coventry come out on top of my ratings with Notts County a Play Off contender and Exeter around 10th. In my opinion, the gap between Notts County and Swansea is comparable to the gap between Coventry and Stoke. Obviously alot relies on team news, but if Swansea turn up next week with a similar side to that that faced Wolves in R3, I expect them to be considerably shorter than early quotes of 19/20
  10. FA Cup Predictions > Jan 16th & 17th

    Below EFL Trophy rather than FA Cup but it doesn't warrant it's own thread so stuck it in here... Oldam 13/8 against Leicester Academy tonight - 4 players from Leicester Academy 2-1 win away at Scnuthorpe in the last round featured in last nights FA Cup replay - side will be similar to that that faced Fleetwood (4/11), Carlisle (4/9) & Morecambe (10/11) in the group stages.
  11. FA Cup Predictions > Jan 16th & 17th

    I'm keen to find a way to get with Chelsea tonight; in recent weeks they've gone off 1/6 v Brighton, 1/7 v Stoke, 3/10 v Leicester and was 4/9 for the initial meeting 11 days ago. I know they'll make changes but 1/3 about the home win seems enormous to me. Difficult to put a price on Wigan v Bournemouth given the visitors likely to make a host of changes - U1.5 appeals at 11/4 with 5 of last the 6 ties where a L1 side has hosted a PL side going unders with PL side failing to score on all 6 occasions. Wigan have drew their last 3 home matches 0-0 too.
  12. FIFA World Club Cup 2017

    Pachuca (MEX) through to the Semi Finals to face Copa Libertadores winners Gremio (BRA) - I'll be looking to side with the Brazilians if they open up odds against
  13. MLS Play-Off Predictions > Dec 9th

    Toronto v Seattle Head to Head Story so far... Ratings Final Thoughts As some of you may be aware I'm already on Seattle for MLS Cup glory at 8/1 - at the time (little over a month ago) I stated that I believed Toronto were the best team in the league but their price was too short and Seattle were the value selection. After the conclusion of the Conference finals I still believe Toronto are the best side but the gap between the two is much smaller. The match prices look about right to me so I won't be getting involved in anything too serious.. this is a repeat of last years final were I was on Toronto at a decent price and Seattle won on penalties, so this year I may have a small bet on Toronto to win on penalties for shits and gigs.
  14. FIFA World Club Cup 2017

    Marathonbets opening odds of 6/5 about Urawa look too big, should be odds on in my opinion, a veiw shared by some eastern European firms who have them around 10/11. A bit more info on the prices for this match; Urawa recently played Al Hilal in the AFC Champs League final, in those two matches only home advantage seperated the sides, infact I argued in the ACL thread that Urawa should have been favoured. Al Hilal actually played Al Jazira in this seasons ACL - they went off 5/6 in the UAE, now I'm of the opinion that Urawa are atleast as good as Al Hilal and should therefore be atleast the same price their Saudi rivals were if not a touch shorter. Bet Urawa Reds to beat Al Jazira - 6/5 @ Marathonbet
  15. FIFA World Club Cup 2017

    Al Jazira through to face Urawa on Saturday after a 1-0 win, should have lost in fairness with Auckland dominating - will be looking to side with Urawa if odds against. Pachuca v Wydad prices look about right