jamiedavies02

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  1. ACL 2017

    Urawa qualified for the final with a 1-0 victory over Shanghai SIPG - 188Bet have posted their Outright odds, they have Urawa at 9/10 with Al Hilal favoured at 4/5, these odds are still wrong for me, Urawa should be alot shorter. Bet Urawa Reds to win the ACL @ 9/10 188Bet
  2. ACL 2017

    There's been a big drift on Urawa to win the match, I still stand by what I said originally - in my opinion only home advantage separates these two sides, at the prices I'd be a backer of the home side
  3. Europa League Predictions > Oct 19th

    I like Austria Vienna at home to Rijeka. Croatian teams have an away record in UEFA competition since 11/12 of 0-1-24; they've also lost their last 12 matches both home and away Austria Vienna can be backed at 7/4
  4. Champions League Predictions > Oct 17th & 18th

    Here's a few thoughts on the rest of tonights CL action; Dortmund should beat APOEL, similar to APOEL v Spurs other week though I think APOEL are too big a price, Dortmund are 2/9, to put that into some perspective a peak Barcelona were 2/7 a few years ago. Dortmund 2-0 or 3-0 but won’t be touching at the price. Feyenoord v Shahktar is a very interesting game - Feyenoord aren’t in the best of form both domestically or in Europe, I’ll plump for an away win but Shahktar are short enough at 6/5. City v Napoli. What. A. Match. City been the best side domestically, Napoli have been the best side in Italy on my shots ratings for the last year. At 9/2 I think Napoli are overpriced, City have been on fire but are still vulnerable at the back. Should be plenty of goals. Liverpool to beat Maribor. My first thought was Liverpool should hammer Maribor, closer inspection tells me they’ve played 14 European home games since 11/12, won 2 drew 6 lost 6, of the games they’ve lost they’ve only lost by 2 or more twice, in that time they’ve drew with Chelsea, Sporting and Sevilla but lost to the likes of Schalke and Lazio, I think they could sneak a goal. Liverpool 2-1 or 3-1 Monaco v Besiktas is another good match, Besiktas dropped off abit domestically whilst Monaco aren’t the same team as last season. Monaco under pressure to get a result here or they could be going out. Willing to leave this game alone at the prices Real Madrid v Spurs should be another cracker, prices look about right to me. Real Madrid obvisouly favourotes but haven’t been firing on full cylinders yet this season, can see Spurs giving a good account of themselves and maybe nick something from the game. Spartak v Sevilla again the prices look about right. Spartak another team struggling domestically, I said with Man Utd and Liverpool in the last game week Sevilla could be going there at the right time, this time next month it’ll be more difficult playing in freezing conditions, seasoned European campaigners like Sevilla should go there and get the job done
  5. Champions League Predictions > Oct 17th & 18th

    RB Leipzig v Porto In the last gameweek I opposed RB Leipzig on what was their maiden away match in European competition - however I can find a few reasons to support them as they return to home surroundings; The graphic below contains some information about when German sides have hosted Portuguese sides in UEFA competitions since 2011/12. The first thing that jumps out is the German sides have a record of 9-2-2 in 13 meetings. The second thing that jumps out is that only twice in those 13 meetings have the German side been available at odds against. Looking back at matches played last season (matches 2 and 3) Dortmund were priced at 2/7 and 2/5 to beat Benfica and Sporting respectively. Starting with the Portuguese sides I hink it's a fair assumption to make that there isn't too much between Benfica, Porto and Sporting, so if Dortmund were playing one of those sides tomorrow I'd expect to see them around 4/11 or 1/3. Last season Leipzig finished above Dortmund and they won away in Dortmund this past weekend and over the past year there isn't too much between them on my shots ratings with Dortmund being slightly favoured, I still think Dortmund are a better side the RB Leipzig but I don't think they are being paid enough respect here - I think they should be odds on.Since 2011/12 German teams at home in UEFA competitions have a record of 79-35-36, Portuguese teams have a record away from home of 29-34-62BetRB Leipzig to win @ 21/20 bet365
  6. Premier League Predictions > Oct 14th - 16th

    Liverpool v Man UtdSkybet go 4/5 that there are Under 11 Corners Taken in this match - bet365 are 4/6 for the same line.Over the course of the last year, there have been 10 or less corners in 66% of Liverpool's league matches, this rises to 70% for their home league matches. Man Utd on the other hand have seen 10 or less corners in 50% of their matches over the same period, 58% of the time for just their away matches.Looking at their H2H in league matches at Anfield since 2010/11, Under 10.5 corners has gone 6 from 7, in all league matches in the same period Under 10.5 corners is 12 from 14
  7. ACL 2017

    A few Asian firms are up with match prices for the 2nd leg - Urawa are on average around 5/6 for the match and 8/15 to qualify fro the final, the 5/2 available for the outright, if you divide this by their to qualify you get implied odds of roughly 5/4 for the final - given that East Asian teams have won 7 of the last 8 renewals would be a proposterous price - as mentioned above I'd expect the winner to be around 8/15 for the final, if not shorter. Bet Urawa Reds to win the ACL @ 5/2 188bet
  8. Premier League Predictions > Oct 14th - 16th

    I compiled them myself, the data is used is freely available and there's plenty of similar stuff out there. Since the start of the season I've tried to move away from a systematic approach and be more flexible, I work best when I get more of a feel for match rather than sticking rigidly to criteria. Don't get me wrong in my head I have things that I'm looking for but nothing set in stone, it's about taking everything into account and then making a decision, seems to be working a lot better for me so far.
  9. Premier League Predictions > Oct 14th - 16th

    STR - Shots on target ratio STFa - Shots on target for average STAa - Shots on target against average Save - % of shots on target against which are saved (0.70 is average, higher = over performance & lower = under performance) Goal - % of shots on target for which are goals (0.30 is average, higher = over performance & lower = under performance) PDO - Save + Save (1.00 is average, higher = over performance & lower = under performance)
  10. Premier League Predictions > Oct 14th - 16th

    All teams have payed 7 matches...