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StevieDay1983

Premier League Predictions > Dec 22nd & 23rd

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The festive period of Premier League action continues next weekend with a run of games just days before Christmas Day. Thankfully, there's no fixtures on Christmas Eve as was initially proposed. Arsenal versus Liverpool is the stand-out fixture but there's a few interesting ties with teams lower down the table under new managers picking up form and teams at the top showing inconsistency. Give us your tips for these games!

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West Ham Utd V Newcastle Utd

Newcastle Utd +0.50 AH @ 1.81 Betvictor

There's really not much between these two sides but I think diverging form has skewed the odds in West Ham's favour here.

David Moyes has done a good job thus far at West Ham. He has made the team more disciplined, industrious and confident - just what the doctor ordered. Problem is they are essentially benefiting from recent opposition being too cavalier or too complacent. The Stoke game was a case in point as Mark Hughes side played an insanely high defensive line after going a goal down and that played right into West Ham hands, enabling them to come away with a 3-0 victory.

I don't see the same level of insanity comming from Benitez's Newcastle side. Results have been very poor of late but they perhaps deserved to nick something from Arsenal at the weekend and in general their performances have not dipped to the point where they are dead in the water. They will surely see the West Ham game as a decent chance to end this run of losses and register a positive result.

We talked about West Ham's fitness and work rate being their key strength but that may start to dip this week as they have to play a league cup quater final at the emirates tonight. Crucially, Manuel Lanzini will be absent for that encounter and the Newcastle game as his ban has been upheld. This is a major blow for the hammers as he is their key creative force right now. West Ham also have injury doubts over a number of other important players and if they miss out on Saturday then I expect the Newcastle price to shorten.

Personally I think it will be a tough ask for West Ham to break down a well-drilled Newcastle side in optimum conditions, let alone the situation they are dealing with now. The metrics are close and the ones where West Ham are ahead are only by a small margin. ELO gives Newcastle a three quater goal advantage over the last 2 games which backs my view on their recent performances.

Newcastle's away form has been poor this season and West Ham are in good spirits but those are the only factors which support such a big price for Newcastle. Metrics and present circumstances suggest this game can be an opportunity for Newcastle so I will back them on the +0.50 line here.

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I'm with you here @Mindfulness. Got to be careful of the odds when it's a side in-form like West Ham. Could break at any point. That said, I'm hearing grim things from people up Newcastle way. They really don't feel confident going into each game. I would probably still back West Ham for the win. Purely because I think until the takeover is completed and Benitez is backed in the transfer market then Newcastle are in trouble.

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I get what you're saying @StevieDay1983

It's not really a selection that folks will be confident about and if West Ham end up winning then peeps are gonna think I'm a dunce. However, the selection is based on facts rather than speculation and that's the only way to do business in the long run. I think the Newcastle price is too big in this situation so I have to go with it.

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5 hours ago, Mindfulness said:

I get what you're saying @StevieDay1983

It's not really a selection that folks will be confident about and if West Ham end up winning then peeps are gonna think I'm a dunce. However, the selection is based on facts rather than speculation and that's the only way to do business in the long run. I think the Newcastle price is too big in this situation so I have to go with it.

Yeah. Totally see your stance. I'm always reluctant to back Newcastle in London. Their record there isn't great. Throw into that the hectic Christmas schedule and I think it will be too much for them. Watch the draw happen now!

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Arsenal v Liverpool FC

Arsenal: Francis Coquelin (6/0 m, doubtful), Olivier Giroud (15/4 f), Aaron Ramsey (15/3 m), Santi Cazorla (0/0 m)

Liverpool FC: Joel Matip (13/1 d), Daniel Sturridge (9/2 f)(both doubtful), Alberto Moreno (12/0 d), Marko Grujić (3/0 m), Nathaniel Clyne (0/0 d), Adam Bogdan (0/0 g)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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Quite interesting duel, it may judge to some extent the quadruple leading to the next Champions League, I expect an open goal match on either side, the two teams have very good offensive lines and can score one goal each
ARSENAL FC vs LIVERPOOL FC @@ Both team to score, odds 1.44

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

Arsenal have won 93% of their last 14 home games in Premier League.
Liverpool are undefeated in their last 9 games in Premier League.
Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their last 8 home games in Premier League.
Liverpool have won their last 4 away games in Premier League.
There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 90% of Liverpool's last 10 away games in Premier League.

You can find interesting 55 Football Betting Streaks for 22.12.2017 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-streaks-22-12-2017

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Fri 2017-12-22

ARSENAL v LIVERPOOL


How nice to start the weekend with such a big game. Two evenly matched teams that may just be involved in a shootout. A draw does not suite either here, and both have the ability to win it. 

In an open game I really fancy Liverpool. They just look so good going forward. Very few teams will be able to shut them out. Salah, Coutinho and Firmino make a pretty awesome attacking lineup. Mane will probably come on as a 65th minute sub, as he makes his way back from injury. 

In my opinion Giroud should be starting more games for Arsenal. Without him, they look so one-dimensional, playing everything narrow, to feet.  Arsenal should just give Sanchez his marching orders. Enough of that over-hyped trouble maker!  In Afrikaans they would say 'vat joe goed en trek' , which roughly translated means  'take your crap and f-off !''   Does he even get into a Man City front line of Aguero and Jesus ? 

What bets look decent here ?

The over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.57 (lousy), which is a huge favorite versus the under 2.5 goals (odds 2.35). SO the bookmakers are expecting goals. I think they are right here. In an open run and gun game there is only one winner ...

In an open shootout I think the Liverpool win (odds 2.88) is a very generous price. I would consider pushing this to Liverpool win and over 2.5 goals, which is priced at 3.75 . I just don't think Arsenal can handle Salah  and the pace that Liverpool have.  I think they get caught on the break here at least a couple of times. 



Away Win & Over 2.5 - Odds 3.75 

Edited by neilovan

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Visit www.footalyct.com/blog to see other betting suggestions!

Arsenal vs Liverpool; 20:45

Arsenal will miss midfielders Ramsey, Cazorla and forward Giroud. Defensive midfielder Coquelin is doubtful.

Liverpool is coming without reserve goalkeeper Bogdan, defenders Moreno, Clyne, midfielder Grujić and having forward Sturridge and defender Matip doubtful.

Short preview: The fact that Arsenal will miss their target man Olivier Giroud who picked up an injury against West Ham isn’t really bothering me as I think that Lacazette can offer this team much more than Olivier. We’ll probably see Iwobi joining the offensive trio with Alexis and Özil and Mustafi coming back in the defensive line which will probably be with 4 players – with Monreal and Bellerin as full backs. Liverpool on the other hand is having their main offensive players in very good shape, they are creating plenty of chances per game and even if they failed to score against WBA, they created totally enough to score at least 2-3 goals. Even though they conceded only 2 goals in last 5 matches, their opponents weren’t neither really offensive minded, neither on their level. Arsenal is much stronger in attack and I think that neither of those two teams cannot afford to play defensively in this match, because they will concede sooner or later. I expect both teams playing offensive and that’s why I suggest goal line over 3 with odds between 1,85 and 1,90.

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PUBLIC BET ALERT!!!    PUBLIC BET ALERT!!!    PUBLIC BET ALERT!!!

It could quite easily end up a goal fest, but Arsenal will be fully aware that should this happen, Liverpool are the more likely victors, especially as they are tired right now. Six games in three weeks. They rested a lot of players in the Carabao semi-final, but I still don't think they'll feel like a fully fit squad...

Also, look at the previous results. West Brom got a nil-nil out of them, Everton frustrated them...I just don't think this bet is nailed on, at all. These are two teams fighting for 6 points and a possible Champions League spot further down the road.

I reckon we will see Arsenal play the same way they did against Spurs, not that it will do them much good in getting a win, but it probably won't be more than three goals maximum.

I like the look of a draw, 1-1.

 

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arsenal are even weaker then last season. lacazette has sat on the bench most games and wenger doesn't even believe in him. liverpool has done very well against top teams last season and so far they have improved defensively and got absolutely killer strikers to punish arsenal. i see liverpool winning one way or the other tonight

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Leicester City v Manchester United

Leicester City: Robert Huth (0/0 d), Matthew James (4/0 m)

Manchester United: Antonio Valencia (18/2 d), Marouane Fellaini (9/3 m), Eric Bailly (8/1 d), Michael Carrick (0/0 m, captain)

 

Burnley FC v Tottenham

Burnley FC: Dean Marney (0/0 m), Jonathan Walters (2/0 f)(both doubtful), James Tarkowski (18/0 d, suspended), Stephen Ward (17/1 d), Robbie Brady (15/1 m), Thomas Heaton (4/0 first goalkeeper)

Tottenham: Toby Alderweireld (10/0 d), Victor Wanyama (2/0 m)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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19 hours ago, betcatalog said:

Quite interesting duel, it may judge to some extent the quadruple leading to the next Champions League, I expect an open goal match on either side, the two teams have very good offensive lines and can score one goal each
ARSENAL FC vs LIVERPOOL FC @@ Both team to score, odds 1.44

very low odds on that bet. i would try...

both teams to score 1st half

both to score both in each half

liverpool win and both to score

liverpool win 2-3

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Manchester City vs Bournemouth; 16:00

Manchester City will miss defenders Stones, Mendy and midfielder Foden, while defender Kompany and midfielder David Silva are doubtful.

Bournemouth is coming without reserve goalkeeper Federici, defenders Mings, Smith, midfielder Arter and key forward Defoe. Moreover defender Daniels and forward King are doubtful.

Short preview: Manchester City is playing on fire! They are netting a win after win and everything should stay the same after this match versus Bournemouth. They are coming in Manchester without experienced striker Defoe and with doubtful King, so their offensive strength will be reduced. City played penalties in Carabao cup, but Guardiola rotated his squad heavily, giving a chance to several young players and we can expect the strongest possible lineup with KDB this time. Two picks looks decent here - Man City to win first halftime with asian handicap -1,25 with odds around 2,10 and Man City to win to nil with odds around 1,90.

Read other short previews on tomorrow's matches of Premier League here: footalyct.com

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

Man City have scored at least 2 goals in their last 11 games in Premier League.
Newcastle have lost with a 1 goal margin in their last 3 games in Premier League.
Everton have won their last 4 home games in Premier League.
Man City have won their last 16 games in Premier League.
West Brom have failed to win their last 16 games in Premier League.

You can find interesting 67 Football Betting Streaks for 23.12.2017 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-streaks-23-12-2017

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Leicester did not play well with Crystal Palace and was rightly defeated, Mourinho with Manchester United has found the way to win the small-medium teams in one way or another
LEICESTER CITY vs MANCHESTER UNITED @@ MANCHESTER UNITED, odds 1.90

Burnley has 15 out of 18 under 2.5 and only under three home games. In this showdown, I will follow Burnley's game with the few goals and closed matches, I do not expect to open the score and we will see a few goals
BURNLEY FC vs TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR @@ +2.50 Under, odds 1.85

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Burnley at 6.5 to 1 to beat a Spurs team that has lost 4 of their last 5 away games ?

Seems ridiculous. Why should Spurs win here ? Their form away says they will battle.

It is not like Burnley just roll over and give up every game.

FOr me the Home double chance looks excellent at odds of 2.35

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Everton V Chelsea

Everton +1.0 AH @ 1.917 Matchbook

Not much time for a full post but markets are a bit generous with Everton price in my view. Metrics and ELO ratings are favourable considering the price. +1 asian line at close to EVS is usually generous for an Allardyce side unless facing unplayable opposition (Man City). Chelsea rightly favourites but I feel Everton price opens the door to a standard value play here. Will be interesting to see if Everton can continue their good run against a capable Chelsea side.

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