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Posts
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Result: Do It Now 1st. Won £37.50
May Profit: £62
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Real crap from Dobey. A missed opportunity against a real rubbish player, in Razma.
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455 Ascot
Brave Nation 5/1ew b365
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4 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
MARKET RASEN 4.25
MR HOPE STREET 10/11
BET365
NR
Ripon 6.40
NEY 11/10
LADBROKES
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Obviously it was a very profitable evening last Friday and it couldn't really have gone any better. The one thing to say though was whilst I thought the ground was going to be on the soft side I was not expecting it to get as testing as it was. I did at least on the whole make sure the selections did handle soft conditions and that worked out well for us. In the end the profit was 45pts which made it an incredible evening. Here is my review of the action.4.35The one race we didn't have the winner of although Missed Tee did get us the place part of that bet back. I was just about right to take Fier Jaguen on, but he didn't jump out to the right quite as much as he did in the race last year. He was still pretty free going though and you could tell that there wasn't a great deal left in the tank approaching the last. A Jet Of Our Own was probably the one horse in the race who did enjoy the conditions and its probably meant he won the race because at 3 out it didn't look likely as he was just labouring at the time. In the end though he has stayed on really strongly to score by a head. Some on Twitter were having a go at the ride on the 2nd, but I actually think if you swap the jockeys around A Jet Of Our Own would have won even easier as it was Brad's strength that kept Fier Jaguen going on the run in. Ultimately though he just isn't quite the same horse as he was last season for whatever reason. Missed Tee ran well enough in ground which wasn't ideal. She was keen as well which didn't help and whilst I understand Immy was looking for better ground, I don't really understand why you would want to go on the right side of Fier Jaguen. If we get good ground at Stratford I could see her having a big chance in the 2m1f race there.Funky Sensation yet again ran a nice race in a hunter chase and was the last to finish. Given he likes to lead and wants better ground there was nothing wrong with that 4th. Someone suggested to me the handicap hunter chase at Stratford might be the race for and that is a decent shout. He was the last to finish as Caryto Des Brosses pulled up. I must admit I was worried about the ground for him although gave him a chance, but he didn't enjoy it and I was slightly surprised they ran him. To be fair to Fine Investment he was still going well enough when he hit 4 out and slipped on landing forcing his jockey out of the saddle.The jockey's on the first two both picked up whip bans and Bradley can't ride at Stratford now.5.10As I said in the preview I made Iskandar Pecos a 5/4 shot and the 3/1 he ended up winning at was a quite staggering price. Given the conditions were unlikely to suit the main danger Wolf Walker, the drift was even more bizarre. Apparently on track he touched 7/2 and I know Joe filled his boots. I actually shared some messages with Joe the night before and he though he should have been odds on. He also told me he's a better horse than Time Leader and he will win next season at The Festival. That's a bold claim, but he has improved no end this season and given he is only 6 there ought to be more to come. He did jump out to his right at the last two fences, but other than that he jumped and travelled well and was always holding the 2nd and 3rd up the run-in. Apparently he is going to head to Stratford for the restricted race next. Latenightrumble couldn't quite repeat the wins of his family members, but it was a good run to finish 2nd and Padjoes Legacy did well for 3rd.Minella Jab has bettered the effort at Exeter in finishing 4th. Wolf Walker was next and he had a touch of the Fier Jaguen's as he jumped out to his right. As much as I was impressed with him in his Larkhill wins, I didn't think at his age what he need was 3m2f at Cheltenham in testing ground. Apart from going to his right he jumped well and ran well until his stamina gave way. He's one to keep a close eye on next season. Another Furlough is another to keep an eye on. He jumped very big and slow in the early stages, but he was staying on well in the home straight until he clipped 2 out and came down. I think he would have been placed and he clearly could land a novice/maiden hunter chase. Paper Mill was well backed, but didn't seem to see it out and almost fell at 3 out.5.45It wasn't the biggest bet of the night, but the winner I got the most satisfaction out of was What A Glance. He did touch 20/1 at one point during the day which is staggering given how strong his form looked this season. This extra trip looked like it would help and I couldn't believe how well he travelled throughout the race. He takes up the lead just after jumping 2 out and his jockey hasn't even asked him for an effort at that stage, he simply was just going that much better than the horses around him. The handicapper has put him up 28lbs for the win which to be fair is probably justified given the 2nd was rated 121. Interestingly his hurdle mark is just 104 and he has won a handicap hurdle so that could be an angle for them given the form he is in at the moment.Yippee Ki Yay ran a funny sort of race because he was prominent, but then ended up dropping out towards the back before staying on again. The mistake at the 2nd last didn't help him, but clearly he wasn't going to get anywhere near the winner anyway and 2nd was the best he was going to do. It was another good effort though and he clearly likes the mud.Haven't Time finished a neck behind in 3rd to land the tricast for the selections if anyone did happen to do it (I didn't I just did a forecast). I must admit the ground worried me a bit because he didn't seem to stay at Exeter last time, but this was a better effort for me whilst not quite seeing it out as well as the 2 in front of him. He's had a cracking season though and connections patience with him has been rewarded.Jetaway Joey and Jeux d'Eay were next. The latter travelled pretty well into the race, but I wonder if the Lady Dudley win just left its mark in the closing stages. He's probably capable of better. Fil d'Ariane ran his usual race from the front and was still in front at 2 out, but he didn't stay after that. I think he does have a hunter chase in him though and it was a better effort that his Stratford one for me. Polish was well backed which surprised me a bit and he was going backwards when he fell 3 out.6.20After the form boost of the previous race it wasn't much of a surprise to see Deise Aba be well backed ahead of this and I was confident he was going to run a big race. Sadly Captain Tommy kept putting the pressure on for the lead and he spat the dummy out eventually. The ground was given as an excuse, but I don't buy that. This isn't the first time he has pulled up this year and I just get the feeling he either fancies it or he doesn't. He went off favourite and I'm sure a few people would have been shocked by Premier Magic going off at 7/2 given he was 5/4 the night before. As you know I was happy to take him on, but he did run his best race of the season without being at the heights he was last year. He tried hard though, but couldn't get to the winner Fairly Famous. I know he didn't handle the ground at Wetherby, but that was really bad and I was hopeful that he would handle this ground which he did. It was a typically strong ride from Gina and he was able to show why he was a short price favourite to beat Sine Nomine at Wetherby earlier in the season. He clearly loves Cheltenham and given he is only 7 he is surely going to be a player next March especially if the ground is decent.It looked like a match as they came down the hill because Lift Me Up was never going to stay in the conditions. Quite why he was so popular in the betting was an odd one. He could be one for the handicap hunter chase as 2m5f would suit him and his mark of 115 is probably on the generous side. Quintin's Man has completely lost his way and never got involved at all. I just wonder if the Haydock effort when he was 3rd in the Walrus has left its mark because he hasn't been the same horse since.6.55Whilst connections are no doubt pleased Regatta De Blanc won, they probably hoped she would have had more of a test to see if she was up to Festival level. We learnt nothing new and whilst her jumping wasn't always good, we have to remember how little racing she has had and she should continue to improve. Rarely would you say 2/5 was value, but she should have been at least 1/10 to beat her 3 rivals.7.30I did say that I had to change my verdict of this race just before sending it out because the prices had changed so much from what they had been the night before. I had even backed Law Of Gold on Friday morning as he was going to be a fairly strong selection. Even if I had tipped him up I would have advised to cash out because once the ground turned heavy he had no chance and I actually can't believe they ran him. I said to someone after Caryto Des Brosses got beat that surely they will take Law Of Gold out, but for some reason they didn't. I'm actually surprised he went off favourite in the end. I'm guessing he will go to Stratford next.I was really impressed with Gaboriot. Obviously the trip was the one concern, but he has seen it out really well to score. It does make me wonder what might have been at Aintree though. It seems the two big hunter chases will be his aim next season, but I wonder if they could be tempted by the Becher Chase first.Master Templar drifted hugely having been the big mover the night before. The fact he finished 2nd after pulling so hard early on proves what a strong stayer he is. Not sure it made a difference to the result, but it was still a very good effort. You would imagine this race next year will be his target. For the 2nd time during the evening the 3 picks finished in the first 3 as D'Jango stayed on to get 3rd near the finish. He probably would have preferred better ground, but him and the 4th got within 5L of the winner in the end. He's had a cracking season and hopefully he will be back for more next year at the age of 12.Luca Morgan ran most of his horses on the night and the performance of Perfect Pirate did surprise me. He had stayed well in the mud at Paxford last time though so clearly he needs a marathon test. Pym was very well backed as well and he did hit the front at 3 out, but ended up not seeing it out.8.05Another bizarre market move on the night as somehow Cat Tiger went off favourite for this. I know there was little depth to the race and he was one of only a handful of possible winners, but Rebel Dawn Rising should have been the market leader. Having said that I do wonder if Cat Tiger had a stronger jockey on top if we might have got a different result. We know how good Dale is and he can still claim 3lbs and he made the difference in the finish as he was very strong on the winner. Cat Tiger travelled well into the race, but Maxwell was weak in the finish and he could only get within a length of the winner. It was his best run of the season though. Rebel Dawn Rising was the only one of the Kemp/Peters trio that could handle the ground and it was a good effort to bounce back from Aintree to score.I thought Solomon Grey ran a huge race in 3rd because he would have hated the conditions and for him to be in contention for as long as he was is a great effort. He could be another one for the handicap hunter chase at Stratford which he has won before and he was dropped 4lbs as well. Those 3 were the only finishers with Espoir De Guye running poorly again, The Composeur (another odd gamble) also running poorly and the others being no hopers.PunchestownWhat a performance from both jockey and horse. I'm still not sure how Its On The Line pulled it out of the fire, but again it was a case of the best jockey winning the race. It looked like Lifetime Ambition was going to win, but she probably went for home too early and she was also weak in the finish. Derek mentioned they could go to Stratford with him which I hope they do as it would be great to see him and Sine Nomine do battle again and I also think Stratford isn't the course for him so he could be opposable at a short price.Given we had a 50/1 3rd there were obviously disappointments in behind. The rain did for Vaucelet although I'm still not sure there was enough in the performance to think he hasn't regressed. Billaway never got involved in 6th and surely this is his last season. Famous Clermont was really keen as him and Samcro built up quite a big advantage at one stage. When Samcro dropped away he took up the running, but he was always going to struggle to stay after the way he pulled and he barely got over the last. Ferns Lock was held up for a change, but it didn't bring any improvement from him and he also failed to finish. I do hope that his trainer can get him back to his best next season because he was such a promising horse and things have gone very wrong in the last couple of months.
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