harry_rag Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Next rounds of action in Super League and NRL. Let's see if we can sort out a few winners between us! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 8 Author Share Posted May 8 Tom "always scores" Trbojevic a bet at evens if you're one of the chosen few who can bet with you know who. Failing that, just one "not quite system" bet for me in tomorrow morning's game; Fuller at 9/4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 9 Author Share Posted May 9 20 hours ago, harry_rag said: Tom "always scores" Trbojevic a bet at evens if you're one of the chosen few who can bet with you know who. Failing that, just one "not quite system" bet for me in tomorrow morning's game; Fuller at 9/4. Nice to start with a winner (though would have been nicer to have been able to be on both)! A rare "no bet" scenario in tonight's Super League game, prices pending for tomorrow's NRL action. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 9 Author Share Posted May 9 Cleary 23/10 a "just shy" pick in the early game. Sivo 11/10 and Mam 15/8 system picks in the later one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 10 Author Share Posted May 10 On 5/9/2024 at 2:28 PM, harry_rag said: Cleary 23/10 a "just shy" pick in the early game. Sivo 11/10 and Mam 15/8 system picks in the later one. Charnley 11/10, Hanley 11/8 and Brierley 5/2 at Leigh L Senior 6/4, Welsby 6/4, Hurrell 13/8 and Percival 15/8 at Cas All system picks bar Brierley. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 10 Author Share Posted May 10 1 hour ago, harry_rag said: Charnley 11/10, Hanley 11/8 and Brierley 5/2 at Leigh All in after 20 minutes. All my luck for today coming in the one game so far! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 10 Author Share Posted May 10 Just evens Ravalawa and 13/8 Mitchell in the Dragons v Rabbitohs game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 10 Author Share Posted May 10 6 out of 7 in the end with Hurrell the only loser. Unfortunately that’s pretty much the inverse of my results on the football tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 11 Author Share Posted May 11 9 winners from 13 bets so far this weekend so perhaps luck is being pushed but a nice return. For today's 2 games I'm on French at 5/4 and Field at 7/4 Davies at evens, Ikulavu at 7/4, Handley at 7/4 and Mourgue at 9/4 All system bar the last one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 11 Author Share Posted May 11 Brimson (Cowboys) at 7/4 my only play tomorrow morning. Even better if you can get the 2/1 elsewhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 12 Author Share Posted May 12 On 5/11/2024 at 12:57 PM, harry_rag said: French at 5/4 and Field at 7/4 Davies at evens, Ikulavu at 7/4, Handley at 7/4 and Mourgue at 9/4 23 hours ago, harry_rag said: Brimson (Cowboys) at 7/4 my only play tomorrow morning. 2 to finish off what has been quite a decent weekend. Jack Walker 7/4 and Trueman 4/1 (both Hull). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 12 Author Share Posted May 12 Forgot Sutcliffe at 11/8 so it's 3 bets rather than 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 12 Author Share Posted May 12 Only one out of 3 but it was Trueman at 4/1 so a decent way to end the weekend. Since I started the experiment of backing the "not quite" system selections I've been fortunate enough to land 7 winners from 9 bets at odds of 9/4 and upwards. Whilst such returns are unlikely to be sustainable in the long term it does suggest that there's some mileage in backing a few slightly less likely scorers. Here's what the data looks like now. Current Bets P/L ROI Best 513 £34.87 6.80% Fair 513 £1.34 0.26% Back 513 £29.22 5.70% Best > Back 251 £45.33 18.06% No odds on 215 £42.85 19.93% UK 104 £35.23 33.87% NRL 111 £7.62 6.87% Blindly backing every player in the data still showing a profit. Fair odds reasonably on the mark. Return from backing every selection where best odds are better than the "back" odds is now fairly similar whether you play or swerve the odds on selections so less argument to avoid them other than on the grounds of controlling the volume of bets. There's a nice steady improvement in the return from the NRL bets which had been hovering around either side of break even. I'm tempted to edge the stakes upwards but will hold fire on that for now. Let's at least get to 250 "no odds on" selections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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