Wimbledon 2019

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Draws = https://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/draws/index.html

[DrO]

I would sure like to see some of your famous draw "analysis" @CzechPunter

[CzechPunter]

Hopefully that was not ironical @DrO . In any case, I think the tournament starts on Monday, so I'll get to it over the weekend.

[DrO]

No,no,it wasn't.
I like to read it.

[CzechPunter]

On the hunt for some early odds, but nothing is catching my eye for some reason. I'll have a proper look tomorrow and there's going to be a longer preview at some point during the weekend.

Edit: Actually, that's not entirely true, I took a punt on FAA to beat Pospisil at 1.22 with a local bookie, that's just nonsense, but I don't think any serious bookmaker is going to post odds like that.

[CzechPunter]

The third Grand Slam of the season is here and the one thing that I have to say straight away is that I would be shocked to see Nadal take it. He was pretty crap during the exhibitions, he's been handed a tough draw, and his health is always an issue during these short turnovers, so I think that he isn't going to lift the trophy. Not a big prediction, I know, but there you go. You know my form going into this tournament, but I was asked to write a preview and that's always a good motivation for some research, so yeah.

On the men's side of things, I find it really hard to see past either Djokovic or Federer, as it simply seems that the rest of the competition has fallen away in recent times and that there aren't any serious challengers. Someone with a big serve and good hitting can take them out, of course, that's just the nature of grass courts, but I don't know who's it gonna be and I don't really have all that much to add in terms of outrights. Betting-wise, I'm going to back Wawrinka to go further than Isner, as they have fairly similar draws in terms of difficulty and as Isner has been out of the game for so long that he's way more likely to suffer an upset somewhere along the way.

The women's side of things is completely open despite the obvious dominance of Ashleigh Barty. The pressure is going to be heavier than ever before, however, so I'm not too keen on backing her at what really are short odds for such a long tournament in which anything can happen. The only thing that I'm taking is Halep to go further than Konta, I just don't trust the latter at all at the moment. I will be watching things closely and I might play something mid-tournament, but I just don't see anything straight away. And yeah - don't back Kvitova, she might not even turn up for health reasons (there should be a press conference about that tomorrow as far as I know).

In terms of match betting, I am going for way too much and I'm actually surprised that things have turned out that way, as I didn't really see all that much when I first got around to check the early odds. Hoping for a good run, but my confidence is obviously quite low at the moment and I guess that I would just sigh if all the below lose.

First, I'm backing Rebecca Peterson to beat Yanina Wickmayer, as I think that she's a level above her quality-wise. The good qualifying run Wickmayer had doesn't change a thing considering the level of players she faced there and I think that she simply isn't good enough to compete on the main level anymore. Something similar can then be said about CSN, who'll be facing the resurgent Stosur that was surprisingly good in recent days. 

Eugenie Bouchard is spending way too much time modeling these days and her two recent matches were truly awful, so I'm taking the much-more-hard-working Zidansek there. Only a big trip down the memory lane can win this for Bouchard and that isn't all that likely to happen (although it can't be ruled out completely). Martic, Alexandrova, and Hercog are then my form picks over Brady, Siniakova, and Kuzmova.

In the men's section, I like both Garin and Schwartzman despite their obvious clay court preferences. They are both facing out-of-form opponents that have very little to offer by the looks of things nowadays. Fritz should also be able to deal with Berdych, who has been out of the game for quite some time and who didn't impress during the exhibitions, while Sonego should beat Granollers as well if he recovers from Antalya, which he honestly should with at least a day off. Finally, I'm also going for one long odds on Klizan against Chardy, as I don't think that he deserves to be a 4.00 shot in a match that could be easily decided by who's going to be missing less on the day.

Good luck everyone - and take care!

Back Stanislas Wawrinka (vs. Isner) at 1.72 with Bet365
Back Simona Halep (vs. Konta) at 1.72 with Bet365
Back Rebecca Peterson to beat Yanina Wickmayer at 1.67 with William Hill
Back Samantha Stosur to beat Carla Suarez-Navarro at 1.79 with Pinnacle
Back Tamara Zidansek (-2.5) to beat Eugenie Bouchard at 1.91 with Pinnacle
Back Petra Martic (-3.5) to beat Jennifer Brady at 1.84 with Pinnacle
Back Ekaterina Alexandrova to beat Katerina Siniakova at 1.73 with William Hill
Back Polona Hercog to beat Viktoria Kuzmova at 1.96 with Unibet
Back Diego Schwartzman (-1.5 sets) to beat Matthew Ebden at 2.10 with Sbobet
Back Taylor Fritz to beat Tomas Berdych at 1.66 with Bet365
Back Christian Garin (-1.5 sets) to beat Andrey Rublev at 2.00 with Unibet
Back Martin Klizan to beat Jeremy Chardy at 3.91 with Pinnacle
Back Lorenzo Sonego to beat Marcel Granollers at 1.77 with Pinnacle

[i1_principe]

Querrey to beat Thiem at 2.20 with Bet365

Thiem does not like the grass courts and his performance in recent years is indicative. This year he only played 1 match and lost from Jarry at the Hurlingham Exhibition. On the previous Wimbledon he lost in the first round from Baghdatis and before that he was defeated by Sugita in Hale. Querrey was out of the courts for a long time, but on his return he reached the final in Eastbourne. He feels much more comfortable on grass and it will not be a big surprise if he wins here.

[four-leaf]

Nicolas Jarry to beat Andreas Seppi at 1.96 with Unibet

Nico is the better player of these two right now and he showed some good stuff on grass lately. He also beat Andreas the only time they've met in Winston Salem on hardcourt last season.

[WinningTipster]

3 picks for 1st round of Wimbledon starting tomorrow:

PLISKOVA-6.5GAMES over ZHU @ 1.68 pinnacle
ZHU under 5,5 GAMES TOTAL vs. Pliskova @ 1.98 pinnacle
Pliskova is one of the favorites to win the tournament. Great form for her last week.

EDMUND -6GAMES over MUNAR @ 1.99 pinnacle
Munar is a clay court player. Edmund can play very well on grass, expect it to be an easy win for him.

[Judeksi]

Couple matches that I like from the first round:

L.Mayer to beat E.Gulbis @ 1.87 (Bethard) (Medium stakes)
Ernests' form has been terrible for almost the whole season. The Latvian has won only 4 of the last 21 matches he has played since the beginning of February. Gulbis managed to get to the 4th round here last year, but I just cannot see that happening with the kind of form he has at the moment. Grass might not be Mayer's favorite surface, but the Argentinian is quite clearly in better form at the moment.

J.Thompson to beat N.Kyrgios @ 3.07 (Pinnacle) (Small stakes)
It seems like Nicky isn't happy with the way he is playing at the moment. He basically gave the match away against FAA in Queen's. Of course Kyrgios has the talent when he is really fighting for every ball like he did in Acapulco in March. Still, the odds on this match seem good enough to me for a small punt, Thompson is in good form and comfortable playing on grass.

K.Edmund -6 games against J.Munar @ 1.99 (Pinnacle) (Medium stakes)
Munar is clearly out of form (hasn't won a match since May) and he also mainly prefers clay courts. Edmund is much more comfortable on grass and in better form, so I think Kyle has a great chance to win with this handicap.

 

Edited June 30, 2019 by Judeksi

[Snoopdog]

Women: Barty outright @ 11/2 with PP

Men: Nadal outright @ 7/1 with PP

Longshot double is 51/1

I did read Czech Punter's comments on the mens, but I just have a little feeling that Novak is still not 100% and the years are catching up with Roger.

Barty to go beyond Pliskova @ EV B365

Halep to go beyond Konta @ 8/11 B365

 

[Larkin22]

4 minutes ago, Snoopdog said:

I did read Czech Punter's comments on the mens, but I just have a little feeling that Novak is still not 100% and the years are catching up with Roger.

 

I could agree with Novak or Roger slipping up at some stage but think Rafa is even more likely. 

I'd be looking at Zverev or Tsit.

With something on Khach, Stan, Krygios(crazy I know)

I feel big serving will go far. Will edit this with the bets I actually take.

 

[CzechPunter]

Nadal is certainly going to give it his best, he always does, but there are good reasons for him not being seen as the main favorite and his exhibition performances were just meh. Potentially tough draw as well, I think that Kyrgios might actually try to win against Thompson given that a match against Rafa is on the line .

[CzechPunter]

Adding Serena Williams (vs. Kvitova) at 1.83 with Bet365. Not thrilled to be backing Williams in any shape or form, but Kvitova isn't in good shape physically.

[South_African_Punter]

32 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Adding Serena Williams (vs. Kvitova) at 1.83 with Bet365. Not thrilled to be backing Williams in any shape or form, but Kvitova isn't in good shape physically.

According to www.flashscore.com, Serena is playing Gatto-Monticone of Italy in the first round and Kvitova is playing Jabeur.

Edited June 30, 2019 by South_African_Punter

[darko08]

21 minutes ago, South_African_Punter said:

According to www.flashscore.com, Serena is playing Gatto-Monticone of Italy in the first round and Kvitova is playing Jabeur.

The bet is who's going further in the tournament

[vvararu]

Hi guys,

What do you think about K. Anderson against Herbert? Kevin is coming back after an elbow injury, however he did not look bad in his last grass matches. For me it looks like an pretty easy win for Anderson but I wanted to see other opinions on that.

[Anaxagoras]

3 minutes ago, vvararu said:

Hi guys,

What do you think about K. Anderson against Herbert? Kevin is coming back after an elbow injury, however he did not look bad in his last grass matches. For me it looks like an pretty easy win for Anderson but I wanted to see other opinions on that.

imo there might be 2 tie breaks and the match will sort out according to who wins them. I see a slight chance on Herbert, good odds.

[darko08]

Katie Swan to beat Laura Siegemund at 1.90 with bet365

Laura is a pure claycourter. Her W/L record on grass is 5-6 and this will be her first match on grass this season so she comes here without preparation. Katie has a W/L record of 8-17 and she has already played 4 matches on this surface. She only won one of those matches (against Parmentier in straight sets) but the other ones were so close. 

I was thinking to bet Shelby Rogers (vs Kontaveit) at 3.00 but I'm not sure how she will be physically after retiring in the third set of her last match against Bencic. If she's fit I'm sure she will have high chances for winning this but I will not take the risk.

Marcos Giron to beat Feliciano Lopez at 4.00 with William Hill

I have to prove this. I think Feli has become absolutely overrated after his wins in Queens. He's 37 years old and i have a lot of doubts that he's body is prepared for 4/5 set matches. Its true that he played so well in Queens but don't forget that he played one less match because Delpo's injury. Giron has already win 3 matches here (De Greef, Hoang and Galovic) dropping only 1 set.

 

[darko08]

37 minutes ago, vvararu said:

Hi guys,

What do you think about K. Anderson against Herbert? Kevin is coming back after an elbow injury, however he did not look bad in his last grass matches. For me it looks like an pretty easy win for Anderson but I wanted to see other opinions on that.

Yeah, there is an upset alert on that match. The problem is that Herbert has not convinced me in his last matches. Anderson is beatable but Herbert need to improve (despite Anderson's form).

Guys how you rate the chances of Putintseva to win against Osaka? 

Edited June 30, 2019 by darko08

[vvararu]

Could you guys, give your versions of "100 percent", "reinforced concrete" games for tomorrow, regardless of the value and the odds? I need a ±2.00 parlay and I have several games in my mind but wanted to see others' ideas.

Quote

 

Khachanov - Soonwoo Kwon. Khachanov at 1.23 unibet

Dimitrov - Moutet. Dimitrov at 1.24 unibet

Edmund - Munar. Edmund at 1.17 unibet

Svitolina - Gavrilova. Svitolina at 1.128 unibet

Halep - Sasnovich. Halep at 1.16

Wozniacki - Sorribes Torno. Wozniacki at 1.13

 

From bigger odds:

Quote

 

Anderson - Herbert. Anderson at 1.42 unibet

Buzarnescu - Pegula. Buzarnescu at 1.68 unibet

Rybarykova - Sabalenka. Sabalenka at 1.43 unibet

Putintseva - Osaka. Osaka at 1.43 unibet

 

 

What are your ideas on this matches? Any info on those? 

[four-leaf]

9 minutes ago, vvararu said:

Could you guys, give your versions of "100 percent", "reinforced concrete" games for tomorrow, regardless of the value and the odds? I need a ±2.00 parlay and I have several games in my mind but wanted to see others' ideas.

From bigger odds:

 

What are your ideas on this matches? Any info on those? 

Can't give you mutch input on any of the matches except saying that Jessica Pegula probably has more chances to win than the odds suggest because Mihaela isn't at her best on grass.

[Torque]

5 minutes ago, vvararu said:

Could you guys, give your versions of "100 percent", "reinforced concrete" games for tomorrow, regardless of the value and the odds? I need a ±2.00 parlay and I have several games in my mind but wanted to see others' ideas.

From bigger odds:

 

What are your ideas on this matches? Any info on those?

Some quick thoughts... Edmund should beat Munar who prefers clay, Caro should beat Sorribes Tormo for the same reason -although I don't back her in any of her matches since her arthritis diagnosis as it's a condition that can flare up and affect her level of play. I'm not at all sure about Svitolina given her recent performances and fitness concerns whilst Dimitrov should beat Moutet but he's been average for so long now who knows. I wouldn't be rushing to back Khachanov on grass although I don't really know anything about his opponent. I'm not sure how reliable Halep is for an easy win against Sasnovich as she's entirely capable of being taken to three sets by almost anyone.

As for the bigger prices, I'd be wary of opposing Rybarikova due to her grass court pedigree but at the same time she has no form and I'm not sure about her fitness - that said though she's done well here before and so should be highly motivated. Anderson should get the better of Herbert but the Frenchman is no mug and serves big meaning a high chance of tie-breaks and more chance of an upset. Osaka is a definite no for me until I see her play a few matches here (assuming she gets the chance) and can get an idea of her grass level and emotional state and on top of that Putintseva isn't the kind of player to lay down and be beaten easily. Lastly if you're looking for bankers I wouldn't get involved in the Pegula match - the price is too high and it's high for a reason. Better to stick to the short ones if you're building an even money parlay.

[darko08]

Osaka lost to Putintseva just 10 days ago in straight sets. She has declared that she doesn't feel comfortable on grass so that's why she's paid at 1.43. Putintseva W/L record on grass is poor (9-15). I can't give you a %, i will just said to you that Osaka should win this but i also will not be big surprised to see an upset on that match.

Sabalenka is the favorite but her game is very aggressive and that means that if she had a bad day she is beatable by any decent player (she lost against Destine Aiava in her first match of the grass season in Bolduque..). She will face a player a tricky player that feels very good on grass (she reached the Semifinals here in 2017). I will said the same here, Sabalenka is the favorite but do not surprise if we have an upset here..

Edmund should win his match considering that Munar has never won an ATP match on grass (0-5).

I don't know Kwon but i see Khachanov as one of the potential winners of that quarter so he should win that match.

Wozniacki also should win against Sorribes despite her physical problems. Sara is a claycourter with a bad serve so i don't see any upset on that match.

I also see Halep winning her match easily. Despite Sasnovich is a tricky player she has lost her 2 grass matches and Halep has won two matches against dangerous in form players (Hsieh and Hercog).

Elina Svitolina at 1.1¿? in bet365 is paid at 1.28. Anyway, we have two players in poor form. Svitolina had 2 early byes in her two grass tournaments (Cornet and Gasparyan). Gavrilova at least has won a couple of matches in Eastbourne (Lapko and Golubic). Personally I will not touch this match.

 

[Bettingboots]

35 minutes ago, vvararu said:

Could you guys, give your versions of "100 percent", "reinforced concrete" games for tomorrow, regardless of the value and the odds? I need a ±2.00 parlay and I have several games in my mind but wanted to see others' ideas.

 

No certainties in this sport, but if I was looking for a parlay around Evs, I'd go with

a treble of Wawrinka / Monfils / Edmund   (pays around 10/11) 

 

[owenclass]

What does anyone here think of Venus losing to the fifteen year old kid in the first round 

[Smiles Tennis]

7 hours ago, darko08 said:

Katie Swan to beat Laura Siegemund at 1.90 with bet365

Laura is a pure claycourter. Her W/L record on grass is 5-6 and this will be her first match on grass this season so she comes here without preparation. Katie has a W/L record of 8-17 and she has already played 4 matches on this surface. She only won one of those matches (against Parmentier in straight sets) but the other ones were so close. 

I was thinking to bet Shelby Rogers (vs Kontaveit) at 3.00 but I'm not sure how she will be physically after retiring in the third set of her last match against Bencic. If she's fit I'm sure she will have high chances for winning this but I will not take the risk.

Marcos Giron to beat Feliciano Lopez at 4.00 with William Hill

I have to prove this. I think Feli has become absolutely overrated after his wins in Queens. He's 37 years old and i have a lot of doubts that he's body is prepared for 4/5 set matches. Its true that he played so well in Queens but don't forget that he played one less match because Delpo's injury. Giron has already win 3 matches here (De Greef, Hoang and Galovic) dropping only 1 set.

 

It will be her first match on grass since Wimbledon 2016!

[CzechPunter]

3 hours ago, owenclass said:

What does anyone here think of Venus losing to the fifteen year old kid in the first round 

So much depends on the youngster's nerves that I wouldn't really want to touch that pre-match.

[Smiles Tennis]

4 hours ago, owenclass said:

What does anyone here think of Venus losing to the fifteen year old kid in the first round 

Can't see it myself. I expected Venus to be about this price. Like @CzechPunter says it comes down to her nerves. She said after a recent win she didn't feel any nerves but she was playing a player ranked #251 I think. 

Now she's playing her idol, on her favourite surface at one of the biggest tournaments. I think she will feel nerves. If she doesn't she's a freak lol