South_African_Punter

Lajovic to beat Fognini at 2.75 with SportingBet So Fognini has done extremely well this week, beating the undisputed master of clay, a certain Rafael Nadal. He now joins an elite group of only 3 other players (I think) to have beaten Nadal at Monte Carlo. However, I personally feel was something "wrong" with Nadal this week, having looked extremely vulnerable in the previous game against Pella, being 5-1 down in the 1st set. A further interesting piece of information is that Fognini has always lost his subsequent match after beating Nadal. IF Fognini plays at his best, he will roast Lajovic, at a price 1.44, I simply don't see much value in betting on Fognini and feel that the value play here is on Lajovic.

Indeed. I can only tell you he was at 7.50 in-play @ 4-4.

Well that meltdown by Medvedev wasn't in the script...

Lajovic v Sonego - Lajovic to win @ 1.67 with Sportingbet Sonego has lost all the QFs he has played this year and this will be the first time he will be playing a quality opponent who isn't injured or in bad form this tournament. To beat Thiem on clay is a good achievement and I expect Lajovic to continue his run here.

Yes, I'm strongly thinking of Medvedev as well. He has a 3-0 H2H against Tsitipas (all on hard court though) and has blown both of his opponents out of the water. Tsitipas had a few wobbles yesterday, particularly towards the end of the 2nd set, which I believe Medvedev will attempt to exploit. Set against this is that Medvedev had a terrible clay season last year (think he only won match on clay), however, that is not enough to dissuade me from betting on him, so I think I will give it a go.

Cilic was pretty awful against Pella, many unforced errors! Not sure one can read too much into Pella's performance against Cilic who has been out of form for a while now. Cecchinato was obviously sleeping in the first set against Wawrinka, but I think he is the better player so probably the odds are correct.

I'd still exercise caution though as FAA pulled out of the doubles. Sascha is also clearly the more accomplished player of the two.

Anyone have thoughts on Schwartzmann v Edmund? I'm very close to picking the underdog (Schwartzmann) but then I remembered he got an injury in the South American swing and hasn't played that well since.

Ah ok thanks. My bookie only offers the traditional handicap, will put some money on the -1.5 anyhow. Edit: Actually I see they have a -0.5 handicap. Excellent. Will do that instead.

Hi @opole Do you perhaps means -1.5 game handicap, I've never seen handicaps as a whole number?

I'm taking Andujar-Alba today. I watched most of the Simon-Daniel match and I thought Simon was fortunate to win in two sets - Daniel just lacked belief at key moments and was a break up in both sets and generated lots of break point opportunities. Andujar-Alba also got much needed rest yesterday, so I think he has to be the value play. Simon looked pretty much gassed (tired) yesterday - the rallies between the two players went on for ages, and I think the first game alone was 15 minutes long. Very few quick easy points.

Yup, I watched most of the match yesterday with Sascha. Sascha completely lost it in the 3rd set...double faults and basic errors galore, although I do rate Munar as a player for the future, especially on clay.

Just on Paire as a live bet after he broke Munar @1.90. Perhaps I'm being too hasty but anyhow...

Kohlschreiber's collapse in the TB was so pathetic. Bet on him as well so hopefully he pulls something out of the hat.

ATP HOUSTON Reilly Opelka to beat Casper Ruud at 1.90 Opelka, despite his one-dimensional game, has been doing well this year, winning his maiden ATP title in NY and doing well-ish in Miami. I believe that the Houston clay is quite fast (anyone confirm?) and thus it won't be a hindrance to his main weapon. He also beat Casper in 2017 and I think he will do so again.