Wimbledon 2019

[vvararu]

10 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

About Basilashvili - I was mightily impressed by him last year and he brought me big profits there, but there have been only shades of him so far in this season. I liked him against Djokovic in Doha, that's where I thought he could repeat some of those 2018 performances, but nothing has happened since then.

Yes, agree. I just hope his shade of himself will be enough to deal with Ward.

[vvararu]

Guys, which do you think are the "low-odd-reinforced-concrete" bankers for today? 

 

[Bettingboots]

1 hour ago, South_African_Punter said:

Probably Basilashvili just because Ward is so low on the rankings but Basilashvili isn't that good on grass.

Grass is Basilashvilli's weakest surface for sure, but he's won matches on grass including victories against the likes of Feli Lopez. Basically he's used to playing at a far higher standard and against far superior players than Ward who shouldn't even be here.  I think he should be much shorter price so I'm backing the Georgian with confidence.

[Snoopdog]

Week 1, Tuesday: shorties acca:

Yesterday, someone ask for an acca ~EV.

Anyway, I'm going to give it a shot today. Maybe we could do a daily acca section?

4x, pays ~2/1 all PP odds:

Kygiros 4/11; Cilic 2/7; Sloane Stephens 1/3; Muguruza 4/11

 

[CzechPunter]

I think you can post your daily accas here , best to keep everything Wimbledon-related in a single place.

[kempazzo]

Mannarino @3.50 seems ok for me vs struggling Cilic. Form of these two is on opposite directions, as Mannarino collected Hertogenbosch title, while Marin's lost in his favourite London to Schwartzman (!). Mannarino is a grass-court monster IMO, if You take style of play.. he was born to do it. He faces another grass specialist, but out-of-form, without confidence and, for now, it's rather just a name, not a top player anymore. 

[kempazzo]

There are a few other matches I'm thinking of getting involved into, but due to lazyness will take only one-sentence reasoning:

Querrey @2,35 - after returning from injury he's splashinig aces as crazy. Good form, good play for grass. Thiem without grass match practice will have hard time to adjust to conditions vs aggressive player that shouldn't give him rythm.

Pavluchenko +1,5set @2.10 - great odds, as Pavluchenkowa was able to take at lease one set in all 4 previous meetings of these two. Have to admit she's without match practice on grass,but odds justify that. Bencic can play well on grass, but it's WTA, so mental collapses happen often.

Maria +1,5set @3.05 - Maria has the game for grass, as well as Kerber, but - again - it's WTA - where amazing happens. With clever play Maria can be a pain in the ass for Kerber, as she's not a modern ball-basher, but an intelligent "oldschool" player.

I have also a hunch that Tomic can make good things vs Tsonga with good return and being a grass-player; Riske-Vekic - very good match-up in terms of grass quality - should be taken live, if there's even better odds for Riske than @2.50; Berankis is a typical player for fast surfaces with low bounce (inddor or grass), so he can also take at least a set vs Shapovalov, who's got a big swing and sometimes can spread errors generously;

For a combo I think I'd go with: Pouille, J. Souza, Fritz, Baghdatis (starting now) @3.06

Good Luck!

[kempazzo]

We could do with such inside-info before the match  :

https://www.express.co.uk/sport/tennis/1147689/Alexander-Zverev-Wimbledon-Jiri-Vesely-tennis-news

in-life problems over the last 48hours...

[kempazzo]

Yup, it's sad actually.. didn't want to sound like happy about it... just for the info

[CzechPunter]

Yeah, you get such info sometimes even if you aren't an insider, but only like two or three times a year. If you're actually on the tour, it's much easier. On another note, I'm happy that Alexandrova didn't botch it from 6-2 *1-0 up...oh wait.

[kempazzo]

out of these I wrote about - Jabeur is my no.1, 2nd would be Mannarino

[Judeksi]

Rybarikova to beat Gauff at 1.54 @ Pinnacle looks alright to me. I mean Gauf wasn't THAT good against Venus who made 26(!!) unforced errors in that match. Rybarikova isn't fading away like Venus, she managed to beat Sabalenka neatly yesterday and I believe the good form will continue here. It's also a huge mental challenge for Gauf to be able to come back after a huge victory against your idol. Small to medium stakes because it's WTA we are talking about here after all

[CzechPunter]

Thinking about that match as well, especially for match-up reasons. Against Venus, it was all about out-hitting each other. Rybarikova has way more variety and that's something that Gauff might not be ready to adapt to. I was expecting a tad higher odds though I have to say.

[CzechPunter]

Really sick about the results, so I'm going to go with just Rybarikova to beat Gauff at 1.5 with Pinnacle tomorrow.

[vvararu]

Incredible game of Basilashvili. To lose 2:0 on sets and 2:0 on games in last set... and then to win. Looks like the guy put a bet on himself during the game

 

[Torque]

I'll be on Rybarikova as well. For all the focus on Gauff and what an achievement it was for her, Venus really was poor and admitted as much afterwards by saying that Gauff had done a much better job of keeping the ball in-play. On reflection it really was an unbelievable performance from Venus, who completely failed to bring her experience to bear against her much younger opponent. Making the youngster play another shot should have been the number one priority - as it was in all honesty Venus gave the game away.

[Judeksi]

Wow, Tomic has totally given the match up against Tsonga, it already happened in the 1st set to be honest. I know Tomic has done this before but it's still crazy to watch this, it's Wimbledon after all

Edited July 2, 2019 by Judeksi

[Gully_22]

19 hours ago, Gully_22 said:

Zidansek to beat Bouchard 2-0 at 2.25 with Bet365

I know Bouchard is capable of a big performance but i dont see it here. Her fitness is always questionable and on top of that she is on a 5 match losing streak with her last two performances being dreadful. Straight set win is always a risk but i think the odds are worth a try.

Zidensek 6-3 3-0 up .. proceeds to lose the second set.... then win the match. I dont know why i continue to bet on the WTA ?

[CzechPunter]

4-7 for me in the first round, I'll never understand how Garin lost after coming back in the first. All three long-term bets still in, just Rybarikova pending for the second round for now.

[thegreatdom]

Proberly not the right place but what are people’s thoughts on Hawkeye? If it’s not available on all courts then surely it’s an unfair advantage to the bigger named players who play on the main courts.

I believe if you can’t provide the service to all players then it shouldn’t be used, maybe until the 2nd week as there were lots of complaints today about line calls but nothing could be done.

Sorry if in the wrong place

Edited July 2, 2019 by thegreatdom
Spelling

[Blackroses]

16 hours ago, Blackroses said:

Not playing on grass didnt seem to hurt Collins. Siegemund can play great defense and has a nice BH slice, likes to attack and has power. GL but I'm going the other way on this one. 

I also think with the courts playing slower Parmentier is going to play Smashova close and even win. I'm going for the upset! +385

 

Also think Bouchard is being written off against an overrated Zidansek. 

These early rounds it's smarter to parlay favorites but these are just a couple of the upsets that I like. I'm parlaying several pairs, will try and post when I finish organizing them.

 

Bouchard

Parmentier

Two extremely unpopular plays.

Sieg win

Parm win

Had a good feeling on those two.

[CzechPunter]

@thegreatdom Yeah, I don't get that either. It should be everywhere or nowhere.

[Bettingboots]

5 hours ago, vvararu said:

Incredible game of Basilashvili. To lose 2:0 on sets and 2:0 on games in last set... and then to win. Looks like the guy put a bet on himself during the game

 

Nah. Its just Ward being Ward ?

[vvararu]

Guys,

What a the low-odd-big-stake bankers for today?

For me, the most "clear" one is Wawrinka to win Opelka at ±1.20 unibet

Edited July 2, 2019 by vvararu

[Torque]

11 minutes ago, vvararu said:

Guys,

What a the low-odd-big-stake bankers for today?

For me, the most "clear" one is Wawrinka to win Opelka at ±1.20 unibet

That's not clear for me at all. Wawrinka + grass + big server = trouble. Think Anderson at Queen's the other year, think Medvedev at Wimbledon the other year. Stan is no fan of grass and even less of a fan of big servers on the surface who can fire aces and unreturnables at him all day long. He gets frustrated and loses interest - I've seen it before many times and I wouldn't be surprised to see it again with Opelka serving out of a tree.

[CzechPunter]

That said, Opelka wasn't particularly impressive against Stebe from what I managed to gather. Not too many banker-looking bets today honestly, perhaps Halep against Buzarnescu, that one looks the safest to me honestly if you ignore Djokovic.

[cialivinci]

What do you guys say to kyrgios and nadal winning a set, but nadal being the winner of the game in the end? The odd is 2,5 for now and combined with halep, tsonga and bautista-agut it should give a value in total 

[kempazzo]

Well, mixed results yesterday for me, with Querrey, Riske, Berankis and combo delivering, while my 1st choice picks turned out to be bad (Jabeur and Mannarino), as well as Pavluchenkova and Maria lost without taking a set at least. About Tomic's performance - it was my last time with him, as if he can't be motivated at WImledon, then nowhere, I hope he won't get money for that performance, but I'm afraid they couldn't prove him "tanking" (https://www.sportingnews.com/au/tennis/news/wimbledon-2019-bernard-tomic-reportedly-wont-be-paid-after-first-round-tank/nbzds5y3rp31119kehwsy22qi)...

Hopefuly today can be better...I think I won't write much, as it's qute pointless from yesterday's look

From the first look I like Popyrin vs Medvedev @4.25 uni (I don't like Medvedev on grass, while Popyrin, like almost every Aussie, has that sth to play on it) and again vs Hurkacz (this time Mayer @2.85 - big serve and not bad results on grass in recent years; mainly opposing Hurkacz, who doesn't convince me). 

 

[kempazzo]

Kudermetova @2.60 vs Wozniacki - she had good run in Hertogenbosch (lost in SF to eventual winner Riske), in Eastbourne she lost as a qualyfier to Bencic. In that place, Wozniacki reached 3rd rnd where she lost to Sabalenka in 3 sets. Wozniacki's preparations for grass season were "hampered" by her wedding and that tells sth about the Dane's attitude toward tennis these days - she's past her prime time, now there are other important things in life... She had luck with opponent's injury to come back from 0:4 to 5:4, when Sorribes Tormo retired. Now, Kudermetova, who's 100% into tennis as a yound gun, will give her hard times on court.

[CzechPunter]

Hi and welcome to the forum @cialivinci! You never know with Kyrgios, but that does look like a good bet for that match honestly.