Wimbledon 2019

[CzechPunter]

Well, Davis did it . I also appreciate Kukushkin beating Isner to void the H2H bet, but come on Serena, you aren't planning on losing after Kvitova escaped, are you?

[cialivinci]

Told ya  Nadal and kyrgios both winning a set  

[bobix]

10 hours ago, bobix said:

Today's potential upset alerts

Kyrgios (vs Nadal): match of the day, without a doubt. Here all will depend on how this incredibly talented controversial a**hole will approach the match. If he can keep his calm and focus, if he does not get carried away, with his huge serve and style of play should be better on this surface. Against top class opponents Nick always raises his level, and - especially against Nadal - has his own reasons to perform well. I could highlight the H2H stats and the fact he already beat Nadal here a few years ago, but with Nick you never know...

Basilashvili (vs Evans): the current form is definitely on the Brit's side, but come on, there is no way Basilashvili is such an underdog, Evans is not that good. Yepp, the Georgian survived a 5 set thriller against Ward (where I backed Ward to win sets...), but that could well give him the necessary belief and mental power to continue his adventure here.

Davis (vs Kerber): here I would take a +5.5 game handicap, for some inexplicable reason I think it won't be an easy match for Kerber.

Parmentier (vs Suarez Navarro): Pauline to win at least a set at evens is not a bad option I think, she could well win the match as well. I am not so convinced with Carla despite her straight sets win in the first round against Stosur.

And you can call me crazy, but Rublev might also have his chance against Querrey, at least for a set...

Ok, I have to admit that Retardishvili was a bad pick, him being simply awful. Kyrgios was not up to the task with too many sloppy errors at crucial points and shame on Parmentier for not being able to close the first set from 5-2, could have ended differently. The only one who delivered was Davis, still more than nothing ?

For tomorrow I really like Azarenka and Fabbiano with Halep might be slightly injured, and Verdasco as well. The Spaniard is lucky to be here in the 3rd round, but he also had problems with his back and was forced to withdraw from the doubles later. I would definitely play Fabbiano with a bookie who settles tennis bets after 1st ball or 1st set played just in case Verdasco retires.

Regarding the rest, I think both Bautista and Goffin have a slight edge, and Opelka might surpise as well because Raonic is far from being 100%.

From the women menu Zhang and Golubic might worth a shot, and Collins can take at least a set against the apparently shaky Martic.

[ogii55]

I am really impressed by Gauff, such a focus and superb shot. Added to her powerful serve. It's worth to try overall bet for a title at 18 (at the exchanges).

Wozniacki looked awful in the first round before Tormo's injury, while Zhang seems to drink some rocket fuel and is hitting the ball like a machine gun. Would try for Zhang at 3.22 Pinnacle.

[Teodore]

Really i dont understand this bet on Gauff with current odds. Ok she play great 2 matches but 1.6 on 15yo girl... Against ATP 60 while Gauff is 313. For me this 2.4 on Hercog is huge value. 

Edited July 4, 2019 by Teodore

[cialivinci]

@Teodore well, thats exactly what they said to the previous matches of gauff where she won. The question is who‘ll be able to stop her run 

[Teodore]

@cialivinci, Yes but in previous matches she was underdog and now 1.6 on 15yo girl... For me is a joke. 

[Torque]

Reilly Opelka to beat Milos Raonic @ 3.50 Bet365

I think this is worth a try. Opelka played well to beat Wawrinka and the Swiss found it difficult to get breaks, so it's hard to see how Raonic will fare any better given that he's a far inferior returner. The Canadian also didn't exactly set the tournament alight against Haase, with the Dutchman having chances and restricting Raonic to a narrow straight-sets win. There could be tie-breaks in every set in this one, and as they generally favour the better server and as there's not much between these two from the service line I like Opelka at the price.

[nanishka]

Novak Djokovic vs H Hurkacz, over 27.5 games, @1.917 with Pinnacle

Novak never enjoyed playing vs. tall players with big serve, I expect less break points than vs. Kudla. Also, the Serb is not fully focused in the first week of the Slams. 

I'm not sure that Hubert will snitch a set however, fully expect for him to cover the not so high line. 

D. Medvedev vs D. Goffin, Goffin @1.909 with Pinnacle

I really rate Goffin on grass surface more than Medvedev, as also stated here, his movement doesn't look good at this surface. Goffin had a brilliant grass season so far, losing only from Federer in Halle and Mannarino. Also, the odds movement suggest me that it is a good bet (odds have dropped on David from 2.2 to 1.9 at Bet365). 

Let's go! ?

P. S. Personally, I see value also with Kachanov and Fabianno today... 

[Hermes]

My picks for the day

Vesely to beat Paire.Paire is yet to face any serious competition so far in the tournament beating Londero who prefers clay,Kecmanovic retired with injury.I don't understand why Jiri is the underdog here and none of his victories have been flukes.

Fabbiano to beat Verdasco.Two men in form Verdasco more so after coming back to clean Edwards on his home tournament.Verdasco who's had a history of chocking has had a quite consistent year with good performances including wins over Khachanov (twice ) and Thiem albeit over clay.I say it's a toss up with maybe Fabbiano edging over past slightly.

I'd avoid Anderson  vs Pella which smells of an upset.Anderson is the favourite and rightly so but Pella is motivated and has managed to pull some unexpected wins on grass.This tournament is no stranger to upsets.

Edited July 5, 2019 by Hermes

[cialivinci]

After seeing Bautista Agut dominating the strong Khachanov, i can only see him win against Paire, although it‘ll be a another kind of a match, because paire can mix his shots with more variety. Nevertheless knowing that paire already lost all 6 matches against Agut it shouldnt be more different with the next encounter. 

[Blackroses]

On 7/1/2019 at 12:06 AM, Tennis Picks said:

Where is Opole? That guy had some great takes. Makes an appearance every 3 years like a golden unicorn.

[Blackroses]

I don't know how that got put there but I asked that...

[CzechPunter]

If Pouille really turns up tomorrow, I can see him getting something, Federer is bound to show some weaknesses in at least one of the sets as he's done twice already. Too bad Pouille is such a head-case right now.

[Smiles Tennis]

3 hours ago, Blackroses said:

I don't know how that got put there but I asked that...

I was about to say why have I been quoted, I didn't say that at all lol

[nanishka]

10 hours ago, nanishka said:

Novak Djokovic vs H Hurkacz, over 27.5 games, @1.917 with Pinnacle

Novak never enjoyed playing vs. tall players with big serve, I expect less break points than vs. Kudla. Also, the Serb is not fully focused in the first week of the Slams. 

I'm not sure that Hubert will snitch a set however, fully expect for him to cover the not so high line. 

D. Medvedev vs D. Goffin, Goffin @1.909 with Pinnacle

I really rate Goffin on grass surface more than Medvedev, as also stated here, his movement doesn't look good at this surface. Goffin had a brilliant grass season so far, losing only from Federer in Halle and Mannarino. Also, the odds movement suggest me that it is a good bet (odds have dropped on David from 2.2 to 1.9 at Bet365). 

Let's go! ?

P. S. Personally, I see value also with Kachanov and Fabianno today... 

"A little" bit of luck with Goffin bet, but I will gladly take the both wins today... ?

[Gully_22]

I cannot believe Hercog has thrown away that lead... 6-3 5-2 on serve 30-0 up....If she goes on to lose this i dont know how she will sleep tonight...

[Torque]

If Hercog loses she's lost for two reasons. The main reason is the switch to passive play with the winning line in sight in the second set, and the second reason is a low first serve percentage which put her under more and more pressure the longer the match went on.

[Gully_22]

You're right, she was aggressive for a set and half and then switched to such a passive style for no reason at all when she was dominating the match. To do its against a player like Gauff, who doesn't make many unforeced errors, made it even more strange.

I think the crowd being against her had a big impact on her choking so bad, but I guess it seperates the great players from the rest... they are mentally resilient even when everything is against them.

Edited July 5, 2019 by Gully_22

[Torque]

Julia Goerges to beat Serena Williams @ 2.80 Betfair Sportsbook

This is mainly about going against Williams, although Goerges has reached this stage with minimum fuss which is always a bonus. For me, if you take away the name and look at how each player is playing right now I don't see Williams as such a strong favourite here. Yes she beat Goerges at this tournament last year and yes Goerges could lose this on her own without Williams having to do much, but if the German can keep the ball in-play and move Williams from one side of the court to the other and get her out of position she can win this. That's the blueprint for success against the American as shown by Kerber in last year's final, and if anything it's a blueprint that should be even more successful this year because Williams isn't moving as well as last year and last year her movement wasn't that great. On top of that, the American isn't serving as well as she did last year which means she isn't getting as many free or easy points and so she's having to work harder and her fitness doesn't look great to me either - maybe she still feels the effects of her knee injury, although she did say after her first match that this is the best she's felt since the early part of the year. Regardless, I see this as the best chance that Goerges has had so far to beat Williams and I think she's a good price to do so, especially since Williams looked far from her best against both Gatto-Monticone and Juvan.

Edited July 5, 2019 by Torque

[cialivinci]

Nadal vs Tsonga under 43.5 Games 1,4 

Federer vs Pouille over 28.5 Games 1,28

Struff to beat Kukushkin with -2.5 handicap 1,33

Kei Nishikori to win against Johnson 1,2

 

Those are my „safe“ bets for tomorrow. What you guys say? i would even consider to bet on nadal with a -4,5 handicap which would‘ve a odd of 1,61 and say just that struff will win instead of a handicap there. I am quite sure with federer and Nishikori though.

 

May i get your advise on this?  @CzechPunter

 

[CzechPunter]

You can, but I'm in no form whatsoever, so take care. Nishikori looks safe imo, but I'd probably prefer the games handicap on Nadal, I can see Tsonga winning a set and then losing one by two breaks. Struff would be safer without the handicap, while Pouille should get the match over the line, but the odds are crap. My safest pick would be straight Nishikori, straight Struff, Nadal handicap.

[nanishka]

M Berretini vs D Schwartzman, Diego +4.5 games @2.09 with Pinnacle

I don't see Matteo as such a big favorite here. Diego is no mug and had a great run on a grass surface this season. Although the Italian had almost a perfect run also, I think the odds on him are overrated. One set from Diego should be enough to cover the line. The last encounter won the Argentinian in straight sets this year. 

 

[vvararu]

I like the 3.10 on Unibet on Joao Sousa. After his 3:0 over Cilic, I don’t understand these odds on him. Cilic’s serve is not worse than Evans’. I expect a tight fight with a slight domination of Sousa.

[CzechPunter]

Well, the question there is how much that win was down to Sousa and how much it was down to Cilic, who hasn't really been himself for quite some time now. On top of that, Evans is bound to get massive support from the stands.

[vvararu]

I agree. But still 1.37 vs 3.1. For me it’s not real. Let’s see in a while.

[four-leaf]

Lucas Pouille to beat (+2.5 sets) Roger Federer at 2.00 with Betfair

Here I have to recommend a huge stake on Lucas to win at least a set. Lucas to win are priced at 10 but does that really reflect on the reality? Based on Rogers performances so far I'd say no and Lucas can play some good tennis as we all know. Lucas only needs one good set and this bet will find it's way home and I think the chances of that happening are higher than the price of evens suggests. Roger is always Roger but I think Lucas are good enough for a set here.

[nanishka]

10 hours ago, nanishka said:

M Berretini vs D Schwartzman, Diego +4.5 games @2.09 with Pinnacle

I don't see Matteo as such a big favorite here. Diego is no mug and had a great run on a grass surface this season. Although the Italian had almost a perfect run also, I think the odds on him are overrated. One set from Diego should be enough to cover the line. The last encounter won the Argentinian in straight sets this year. 

 

??

[Korayu]

Chech this out.Which underdogs gonna reach the quarter ? What is your predictions ?

[Hermes]

Opole abandoned us over here on Tennis to win us some money at UFC.Won back some unexpected yesterday.A lot especially from Ben Askren. Sorry if I'm off topic.I thought yall should know since Wimbledon has been depressing.Sigh.