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darko08

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Everything posted by darko08

  1. Alexander Zverev to reach the Final of the ATP Indian Wells at 1.72 with bet365 The odds for Sascha to win the ATP Indian Wells have dropped to 2.05 and it has no value at this point... But the odds for him to reach the Final are at 1.72, so I will go with this one. He will play against Fritz in the QFs. Fritz has won all his matches here in straight sets (Nakashima, Berrettini and Sinner), but his form before coming here was really poor. Moreover, neither Berrettini nor Sinner were playing good. I think Fritz is a little bit underrated for this match but I expect Sascha win it in 3 or 2 tight sets. In the SFs, he will play against Basilashvili or Tsitsipas. Tsitsipas is not playing well. He could have lost against Fognini (2-6, 6-3, 6-4) in the 2nd round, and he could have lost against De Miñaur in the 3rd round (6-7, 7-6, 6-2). De Miñaur was in a really, really bad form and that reflects how poor Tsitsipas has been playing recently. It's also hard to forget how he did in the US Open... Having said that, I wouldn't be shocked if he loses against Basilashvili. I saw a big part of Niko against Ramos. Ramos was serving for the match but he lost his opportunity to close it in 2 sets and then he was destroyed by Basilashvili's winners. Since the Olympics, Sascha has lost only 1 match (20-1), and that was a 5 set match against Djokovic (SFs of the USO).
  2. Actually, it's the 1st time I talk to you, mate. As I said, let's stop this and let's see how we do in our next bets.
  3. @mark22 I completely agree with Czech here, this is getting ridiculous. Let's stop this and let's see how we both do in our next bets, right?
  4. I think you missed this part, my friend: "Moreover, when Azarenka was leading the 2nd set (5-2), Sasnovich held her serve comfortably (to 15) in the next game, and then she broke Azarenka in the first chance she had (to 30) in the next game. In other words, Azarenka was never even close to win neither the 8th game (5-3) nor the 9th game (5-4). With that on mind, it's really, really unfair to say that it could easily have been 6-2". I repeat, regardless of all the wasted opportunities from Sasnovich before the 5-2, you can't say that she was lucky to end that 2nd set 6-4, cause Azarenka was never even close from winning the 5-3 nor the 5-4. Sasnovich held her serve to 15 in the 8th game (5-3) and then she broke Azarenka to 30 in the next game (5-4). What is so difficult to understand...? In case Sasnovich would have faced BPs on that 8th game or Azarenka had MPs on that 9th game then I would say: "Yeah. It could have been 5-2 or 5-3, but that was not the case. So, the +5.5 line was won deservedly. Break Points converted: Sasnovich 3-8 (5 BPs wasted), Azarenka 6-9 (3 BPs wasted). So, you're also wrong at saying that Azarenka wasted many chances. Sasnovich wasted more. I don't care about the Pegula match. I'm talking about the bets I posted myself. I know Sasnovich was far from winning that match, I'm talking about the GH and your comment about how lucky was Sasnovich to lose that 2nd set 6-4 and not 6-2. By the way. You liked Khachanov (-1.5 Sets) and Karatsev. Khachanov has lost in 2 sets and Karatsev only has won 4 games in the entire match. Are you going to make a review on those matches, too? I bet you won't. It's really easy to make these kind of posts once the match is over. I have never done that in my entire life. Sometimes I have made posts telling why I did not like a bet, but I always have done that before the match started, never when it was finished. It's not well seen, mate. Have you ever received a post commenting that your bet was not good after the match was over? I don't think so.
  5. I forgot about this part. It's unfair to say that the 2nd set could "easily" have been 6-2. Let me explain why. First of all, Azarenka did not have a single comfortable service game on that set. She held her serve 3 times and she lost it 2 times. The 3 times she held her serve, she had to face a BP in one game and there were Deuces in the other 2 games. As you can see, she did not have a single comfortable service game. Sasnovich held her serve 2 times and she lost it 3 times. The 2 times she held her serve she did comfortably (there were neither Break Points nor Deuces). In relation to the 3 service games she lost, there were Deuces in 2 of them. Conclusion: unlike Vika, Sasnovich had at least 2 comfortable service games. That's why I said it was not fair to say that it could easily have been 6-2. Moreover, when Azarenka was leading the 2nd set (5-2), Sasnovich held her serve comfortably (to 15) in the next game, and then she broke Azarenka in the first chance she had (to 30) in the next game. In other words, Azarenka was never even close to win neither the 8th game (5-3) nor the 9th game (5-4). With that on mind, it's really, really unfair to say that it could easily have been 6-2. Azarenka did not play well against Kvitova, trust me. That match was horrible. Both players did a lot of errors and served really bad. Kvitova at least had an "excuse", as she had physical problems. At the beginning of the 1st set she received medical treatment on her thigh. After that, Kvitova was forced to play much more aggressive and that led her to do more errors. Imagine how bad was Azarenka, that she struggled to beat an injured Kvitova. I don't understand what are you trying to say with that. You have said that Azarenka played well against Sasnovich, but what that has to do with her previous matches?
  6. That’s brutal. And the players he faced: Halep, Raducanu, MC Osorio, Rybakina, Keys, Mertens, Tsurenko, Rybakina,… 41-58% of points won with 2nd serve against all those players. 26% of points won with 2nd serve against Azarenka. That was frustrating.
  7. Yep, the reason why Sasnovich lost that match was her poor serve. That's unquestionable. The problem was that she did not serve bad in her previous matches here... So, that was something I wasn't expecting when I placed the bets. Just take a look at her serve stats against Halep. She played with a 82% of 1st serves. She won the 63% of points with 1st serve, and the 58% of points with 2nd serve. If I see a player doing something well in 3 straight matches I have to assume that she will do the same in her next game. I agree with your view, but when you say that it easily could have been a 6-2, 6-3 you are forgetting about all the opportunities that Sasnovich wasted to break Vika's serve, and they were not few. Sasnovich wasted more break points than Vika, but there were also a lot of Deuces in Vika's service games, that she managed to save. That was also a big difference between them, Vika just played better the crucial points. In my case, the games handicap bet it's been won cause I took the +5.5 line, but I lost the other 2, so it was a bad choice anyway.
  8. First of all, I have to say that I also took that bet, but I did not post it. After seeing Ruud reaching miraculously the TB, I was expecting the worse. It would have been really unfair if Harris had lost that first set! I also did not understand why the market went that strong on Ruud at those odds. I guess people gave too much importance to that big win over Norrie... and they forgot how he struggled to beat Murray and Grigor, plus how good Harris was playing.
  9. Sasnovich vs Azarenka - Over 19.5 Games at 1.80 with Pinnacle Sasnovich (+ 5.5 Games) to beat Azarenka at 1.68 with Pinnacle Sasnovich to beat Azarenka at 4.01 with Pinnacle I said on my last pick that Halep was being overrated. She was not playing good and Sasnovich's last results were suggesting that she would have chances to upset Halep. Well..., I only have seen a short part of that match, but Sasnovich has beat her in 2 sets (7-5, 6-4). She has won all her 3 matches here in straight sets (MC Osorio, Raducanu and Halep). Azarenka's last results are not good. She has not been able to win more than 2 straight matches since she did in Berlin, 4 months ago. In her 1st match here, she benefited from Linette's injury to reach the 2nd round. Now, she has benefited from Kvitova's physical problems to reach the 3rd round (Kvitova needed medical treatment on her thigh in the 1st set). I have seen the whole match and I have to say that it has been really bad. Both players have played really aggressive (as it was expected), but the amount of errors has been excessive. It's also remarkable how bad both players have been with their serve. The first set has been a nightmare. Vika is the best player, but Sasnovich has showed more, much more. These players have never played before.
  10. I said I would keep placing bets in case of getting profits with these 3 bets. Dimitrov (6-4, 6-2) and Harris (6-3, 6-3) have delivered but Schwartzmann has dropped a set (I did not see that match, but he was really close from losing it). That little man has disappointed me many times. Let me give you some good advice guys, "stubbornness" is a really bad quality for a punter, get rid of it. Sasnovich vs Halep - Over 19.5 Games at 1.83 with Unibet I saw the whole 1st set Halep played against Kostyuk and the first games of the 2nd one. She won (7-6, 6-1) but she did not impress me. Kostyuk did not a play a great match. Actually, I saw her a little bit shaky, hitting bad the ball in many occasions. Despite that, she could have won the 1st set. I haven't seen Sasnovich but she has won her first 2 matches here without problems. She has beat MC Osorio (6-0, 6-4) and Raducanu (6-2, 6-4). I think Halep is a little bit overrated for this match. She's far from her best form and she was disappointing in the USO. She could have lost against an injured Rybakina in the 3rd round. Then, she was destroyed by Svitolina in the 4th round. I like this line cause I think Sasnovich can upset Halep more than the odds suggest. These players have played only 1 time before. It was in Wimbledon (2019). Halep won that match (6-4, 7-5). Then, she won the whole thing.
  11. Harris (-2.5 Games) to beat Davidovich Fokina at 1.85 with Unibet Fokina is in a really bad moment. Since the Olympics he only has won 2 of the 7 matches he has played, and those 2 victories have been against Simon and Steve Johnson... He even lost against Trungelliti in the 1st round of the USO. He has been really lucky to face Johnson in the 1st round here, otherwise he probably would have lost again. Harris is in the best moment of his career. He did not play well in San Diego (he struggled to beat Eubanks and he lost against Schwartzmann, after requiring a MTO). Having said this, Harris is still the better player in this moment. Dimitrov (-3.5 Games) to beat Altmaier at 1.94 with Unibet Dimitrov is miles away from the player he was, but the difference between him and Altmaier is still huge. Altmaier beat Querrey (6-2, 6-4) in his 1st match here, but I would like to point 2 things. Firstly, Querrey is in a really bad moment (7 losing streak). Secondly, Altmaier played his 1st match on hard of the year. Just 1 week ago, he was playing a challenger in Peru (on clay), so he has not prepared this tournament at all. As I said, Dimitrov is not at his best, but he won some matches in San Diego (Fucsovics and Karatsev), and he was close to beat Ruud in the SFs (6-4, 4-6, 6-4). If nothing strange happens, Dimitrov should win this match comfortably. Schwartzmann (2-0) to beat Cressy at 1.90 with Unibet Cressy has had a lot of problems to reach this round. He even had problems to beat Moriya (6-4, 4-6, 6-3) in his 1st match here, despite being a huge favorite (1.22). He also had problems to beat Coucaud (7-5, 6-7, 6-2) and Djere (6-7, 6-1, 7-5). It seems Cressy's big serve is not as effective as it is in other hard courts. Schwartzmann has not showed his best tennis recently and he was pathetic during the Davis Cup, but I think he should take advantage of these courts slowness to beat Cressy. If I don't get profits with these 3 I won't place more bets until the Paris Masters, which is played in November. GL to all of you!
  12. Brantmeier to beat Trevisan at 2.55 with Pinnacle Trevisan has beat Baptiste in straight sets in her 1st match here. She has been playing on clay tournaments since she lost in the 2nd round of the USO, so this has been her 1st match on hard since then. I saw her in the Final of the BBVA Open International (Valencia). She beat Galfi in 3 sets, but it was a really tough match for her. Prior to that, she also reached the Final in Kalsruhe, but she lost against Sherif in 2 sets (6-2, 6-3). It's obvious that Trevisan is in a good shape right now, but her game is clearly made for clay courts, not hard courts (she's a solid baseliner and she's also a good net player, but she lacks power on her shots and her serve is weak). In fact, she has a negative record on hard (26-28) and she only has won 3 of the 10 matches she has played this year on this surface. Brantmeier has just turned 17, but she has already proved that she can win matches like this one. She was only 1 match away from qualifying for the main draw of the USO. She beat Govortsova and Sramkova, but she finally lost against Schmiedlova (7-6, 6-3). She has beat Boulter (150-92 on hard) in straight sets (7-5, 6-2), in her 1st match here. With her aggressive style and her powerful forehand, Brantmeier should take the lead of the points. She also has a decent serve, better than Trevisan's serve. So, IMO, if she can hold her nerves, she definitely can win this match. I have taken this one at low stakes for 2 reasons. Firstly, Brantmeier lacks experience. Secondly, Trevisan has beat Baptiste easily in her 1st match here (6-2, 6-4).
  13. 2 ATP Masters Finals (Montecarlo and Cincinnati), 2 ATP 500 Finals (Rotterdam and Halle), 1 ATP Masters SF (Miami), 1 ATP 500 SF (Dubai), 1 ATP 250 SF (Doha), QFs in the AO, etc. That's the answer to your last question. Winning matches and titles is how you get a good ranking, as simple as that. The reason why he lost yesterday had nothing to do with serve stats. Actually, his serve stats were better than Norrie's stats (more aces, less double faults and a better % on points won with 1st and 2nd serve,...). Rublev destroyed Norrie in the 1st set. Rublev won that set 6-3 but it could have been 6-1 (Rublev wasted 3 BPs when he was already leading the set 4-1). The game that changed it all was the 3rd game of the 2nd set. Rublev had 3 BPs to took the lead of the 2nd set (and most likely, to finish the match), but he wasted all of them. Wasting all those break opportunities provoked 2 things. 1. Rublev lost his mind. 2. Norrie started to believe on himself and he increased his game considerably. It's just incredible how just a single game can change the outcome of a whole match. But that's what happened. Actually, these completely unexpected twists occur on all kind of sports. I'm not an expert on soccer but I also watch some soccer matches occasionally. Today I have seen Bayern Munich playing against Eintracht Frankfurt. Bayern players were attacking constantly and they took the lead in the 1st half. Well..., they have lost the match (1-2). I guess their victory was at 1.09-1.10 or something like that. Imagine how frustrating had to be that match for all those bettors who had Bayern to win it!
  14. Rublev to win the ATP San Diego at 1.83 with bet365 Rublev will play against Norrie in the SFs and then he will play against Ruud or Dimitrov. I haven't much to say. Rublev has destroyed Nakashima (6-2, 6-1) and Schwartzmann (6-1, 7-5). I also have seen Norrie a little bit, and I have to say that I saw him really well. He has beat Koepfer, Evans and Shapo without dropping a single set, but he came here from a 4 losing streak and I think Rublev is just playing too good right now. I'm not worried for that big win over Shapo cause the canadian has been a mess since Wimbledon and now he's free falling. As I said, if Rublev beats Norrie he will face Dimitrov or Ruud. Ruud is the favorite player according to the odds. He has improved a lot on this surface but it's important to remark that his favorite surface is clay and he has never played an ATP final on hard. Regardless of who wins that match Rublev will be the big favorite.
  15. Giron to beat Munar at 1.53 with bet365 The main reason for this pick is obvious. Munar is a pure claycourter and his record on indoor hard courts is horrible (9-20). Giron record on indoors is clearly better (43-33), and he beat Rinderknech and De Minaur the last week, in Metz (indoor).
  16. Bencic is trying to qualify for the WTA Finals so her commitment is beyond doubt. She said she will play all she can until Indian Wells, then she will see if it is possible or not, and then reevaluate from there. I saw Samsonova's first match here. She wasn't great but her big serve saved her from many dangerous situations. I did not see her against Dodin but it seems she could have lost that match (2 TBs and Dodin wasted a lot of BPs...). I agree with four-leaf, Bencic should win but the odds have dropped and there's no value in betting on her at 1.35, when she was at 1.50-1.55. If I were you I will wait and try to get better odds betting on live.
  17. Doi (+5.5 Games) to beat Samsonova at 1.70 with Pinnacle Samsonova is the best player right now, but I like this handicap for some reasons. Both players have a good record on indoors, but this will be the first time that Samsonova plays here, while Doi has already won the whole thing before. It was long time ago (2015), but this is still the most important title of her career, so I expect her to give all her best. In the last edition (2019) she lost in the 1st round but she took a set from Goerges. Doi and Samsonova met for the first time this year, in Adelaide. Samsonova won in straight sets, but it was a tight match (7-6, 6-3). I did not watch the match, but after taking a look at the stats it's clear that it could have gone either way. This will be the first match for both players after the USO. Doi lost in the 2nd round against Pegula, after beating Sanders. Samsonova lost, unexpectedly, against Minnen in the 2nd round, after beating Boulter. As I said, Samsonova is the best player right now and the favorite one to win here, but I think Doi can do better than the odds suggest.
  18. Finally, I would like to post a few points about why all this has happened. It's something that we all already know, but I think that it's important to remark it again. First of all, It's never easy for a Top player having to face an in-form young talent. The Top player must win, so the pressure will be always on her. On the other hand, the young player has nothing to lose. Just take a look at how Leylah was acting during all those matches against the top players. She was enjoying those matches, she was constantly smiling at the end of the points, even during the most crucial moments of the match. On the other hand, the top players' faces were reflecting concern. The fact that Leylah didn't show the same "enjoyment" when she was playing against Emma just proves that I'm right. Secondly. It's very well known that in the WTA there are no dominant players right now. The Williams sisters were the last players who dominated the WTA. If we add that all these new generation of players are big hitters with a really offensive but also consistent mindset, we get a circuit in which any player who comes from the nowhere, can upset a top player. Players as Ostapenko, Kenin, Andreescu and Raducanu have won a GS, coming from the nowhere. Thirdly. Do not forget that in women's tennis, all GS matches are played in a best-of-three format, and that only add more pressure to the favorites. In men's tennis, if you lose a set there's nothing to be worried about cause your still have a big margin to react. In women's tennis, if you lose the first set you have motives to be worried, cause you are only 1 set away from losing the match.
  19. Yep. All the players who Leylah beat should be ashamed, despite the fact that all they were just a few points from winning the match. Players as Sakkari or Bencic, who clearly showed a worse version and were not even close from winning a single set, can be really proud of her run here 😕 During the qualifying I already posted here that I wouldn't be surprised to see Raducanu causing an impact in the main draw, but winning the whole thing without dropping a single set it's something I wasn't expecting 😆
  20. Yep. Nothing has worked today for her. The pressure was on Sakkari and she has not been able to handle it. As Raducanu has said, "I'm just a qualifier, technically there is no pressure on me..."
  21. Leylah has been playing really well. Osaka, Kerber, Svitolina and now Sabalenka, and you're still talking about "good luck" and "players who did not play well"... It seems you just don't want to see the good things Leylah does. Leylah has played an incredible match, how can you say that Sabalenka "has won it for her"? We all know how Sabalenka plays and Leylah has done a great job on redirecting all that power, moving and frustrating her. She has played really well on serve (as I said, she has improved a lot on that) and her forehand has worked really well, again (all those forehands DTL!). The only thing I am agree with is that Sabalenka has gifted the last game with those 2 DFs. Raducanu beating Sakkari 5-0 in the 1st set! It would be really nice to see a Leylah-Raducanu Final!
  22. Leylah! Osaka, Kerber, Svitolina, Sabalenka,... who's next? It's admirable how good Leylah is playing in this USO!
  23. I think it should be for Leylah, but not sure if it will be for Raducanu. Sabalenka has been doing a lot of DFs. I have seen her doing even 3 double faults in only 1 game... Despite that, she has won easily all her matches. In theory, Mertens and Krejcikova should have been tough opponents, but they did not play good at all (I saw both matches and I was quite disappointed with how both Mertens and Krejcikova played). We can say that nobody has really tested her, yet. I saw Leylah against Osaka, Kerber (a few parts) and Svitolina. I wasn't expecting her to play that good. I knew she can be really consistent from the baseline. Her forehand is really good and her angles are just impressive. But what has shocked me the most, is how she has improved her serve stats. She's not the tallest player on tour so she has struggled with that in the past..., it seems she has been working on that! The crowd will be with her. And forget about all the time she has spent on court in her last matches, she will fight every single point till the end. That being said, if Sabalenka can control her nerves (she never has reached a GS final...) and stop gifting 2/3 points per game in double faults, she should beat Leylah. In relation to the Sakkari-Raducanu match, I think that the options for an "upset" are higher than in the other match (as the odds reflects...). I have seen the last 3 matches from Sakkari. She had no problems with Kvitova and Pliskova but I have something to say. Both Kvitova and Pliskova played incredibly bad. In relation to the other match, Andreescu was very close to win that one in 2 sets. The match actually finished when Sakkari won that 2nd set TB, cause Andreescu was not physically ready for playing a 3rd set. Anyways, I saw Sakkari really nervous on that match. She has a good serve but she did a lot of DFs. Raducanu has beat all her opponents in straight sets. I guess we can try to find "excuses" for every single one of those beatings, but it is what it is. She has destroyed every single opponent she has faced. Who will be the most nervous player? I guess it will be Sakkari cause she is the favorite player, so the pressure will be on her. This match is hard to predict. No bets for me, but I wouldn't bet on Sakkari at 1.60. I think it not worth it.
  24. Did she say something about what she had? Cause I still don't know what problem she had... I remember her touching her abdomen and it seems she had a respiratory problem. She had a stitch? An abdominal injury? Or was she faking and trying to disrupt Muguruza's rhythm? Muguruza was losing 4-0 in the 2nd set but then she won 5 straight games and she had 3 BPs/SPs opportunities in the next game. Then, she had no problems to hold her serve (6-5) and it was when Krejcikova used the MTO (6 minutes). And don't forget about all the time she was losing between points during the TB. She did something similar in Dubai. After losing the 1st set against Muguruza, she took a long bathroom break (more than 10 minutes). She repeated in the SFs of the FO against Sakkari (after losing the 2nd set). Honestly, at this point I don't believe her anymore. She's like Tsitsipas and others players who will keep using the MTOs and BBs to disrupt their opponents' rhythm.
  25. That being said. I wouldn't bet against Raducanu. I have seen her many times since her run in Wimbledon and I have to say that she's on fire. Her preparation for the USO has been really good and she has won all her matches in straight sets. Besides, Rogers' form before coming here was really poor. Only 1 win in her preparation tournaments (San Jose, Montreal, Cincinnati and Cleveland), and that win was against an injured Collins that could not finish the match. In relation to the match she played against Barty, the aussie played one of the worse matches I ever seen on her. If my memory serves me correctly, there was a game in which she did 4 DFs! She did a lot of errors and looked sluggish. It was a really poor match from Barty. It's a hard match to predict but I wouldn't bet against a player that comes here in such good form, too risky!
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