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StevieDay1983

Premier League Predictions > Nov 18th - 20th

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It's the international break coming up but that doesn't mean we can't get some chat going about the first round of Premier League matches scheduled for after the break. Here are the odds and ratings for those matches. The big match here is the North London Derby between Arsenal and Tottenham. Post your thoughts and tips now! :ok

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OK, so what are your early thoughts here then guys? @andrewcalo, a lot of negativity surrounding Swansea right now. Do you think it's too early to look at a change of manager? Tough game away to Burnley for you lot here. Personally, I've never rated Clement as a manager. Another in the mould of Steve McClaren where he's a decent coach but not up to the big job.

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Most definitely. It's our team that the problem lies with not the manager - if anything fire some members of the squad.

We've collectively realised that we can't keep getting rid of our managers every season. We went through three last season. Ridiculous.

Nope. We've all got to dig in and get some results.

Starting with Burnley. We beat them twice last season. I can't see us letting them steal a goal like they normally do.

I'm going to the match lol home for a week, and it's only 5 hours to get up there on a bus full of Jacks. Your worst nightmare eh @StevieDay1983?

Edited by andrewcalo

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I dont see any suprise in game between Leicester v City and West Brom v Chelsea. Chelsea now a different team with hazard fit and I like the partnership between Cesc - Hazard and Morata. Maybe Conte starts Willian or Pedro for Bakayoko and pulls Cesc back to an number 8 role.
Liverpool should win at home against the Saints - Mane stays hopefully fit in Africa, Salah in great form. Probably Lallana & Coutinho will be fit for that match too. Firmino and Coutinho did not play yesterday in Japan, so they rested their legs :)
I dont know how I would bet the other games. Definetly a hard game for Moyes to begin in Watford.

Arsenal v Tottenham should be entertaining. Arsenal will be desperate to win this game.

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This week my model identifies some value bets in the DNB and double chance market 

Tottenham DNB (projected score 2-2 but value in Tottenham)

Everton DNB (projected score 1-1 but value in Everton)

West Ham DNB (projected score 1-1 but value in West Ham)

Swansea X2 (projected score 0-0)

Huddersfield X2 (projected 0-0 or 1-0 loss) this is a risky play @1.95 

West Ham X2 (projected score 1-1)

 

Also there is some value in the -1,5 AH market.Perhaps you could parlay with 0.5 unit 

Manchester City -1,5 (projected to win 0-3 or 1-3)

Manchester United -1,5 (projected to win 3-0)

The only game where a straight up winner is expected is Brighton

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On 13/11/2017 at 11:34 PM, andrewcalo said:

There have not been any nil-nils in three weeks.

Also only 3 draws in the last three weeks.

We're looking at probably 2 if not 3 0-0's this week, and four draws minimum.

I wonder what the general theme is for goals scored after international breaks? Players that are tired from travelling less likely to be 100% meaning more low key games perhaps?

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I'm not so sure. I can see a couple of games with goals. How many players will be fatigued? Lots of key players took a time out (i.e. Spurs for example). And these were friendlies, with little pressure.

I think a lot of the top flight were thankful for a relatively easy break, and we could see a lot of full-pelt games. 

I DO fancy Swansea Burnley to be one goal at most. But my money will be on 0-0.

Edited by andrewcalo

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First week back after internationals and this card is a shower of shite for AH value imo.

Can't argue with the logic of playing X or unders this gameweek but there's nothing outstanding from my perspective.

 

Burnley V Swansea City

X @ 3.2 Bet365

I'm still not convinced by Burnley on their own turf but self belief and efficiency have enabled them to pickup some strong results thus far. As with Palace, I fear for Swansea's survival hopes this season. Paul Clement's side has been low on confidence and some of their bigger players need to step up to the plate. In terms of quality, there is not a big disparity between the two teams in this match. Could be a drab, low scoring encounter and @andrewcalo is already looking to the 0-0 here. I agree with the general consensus and will go for X.

 

Crystal Palace V Everton

X @ 3.3 Betfred

This fixture should have been 0-0 back in January but poor officiating allowed the game to have a winner. Not much has changed since then in my view apart from Everton are way more inept infront of goal these days. Both of these teams struggle for goals and it's really hard to see a winner from this contest. Under 2.5 market offers no value for this game imo so I will go with X.

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On 11/5/2017 at 9:23 AM, StevieDay1983 said:

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just for fun i'm going to try predict correct scores

arsenal 1 - 1 tottenham

bournemouth 1 -1 huddersfield

burnley 1 -1 swansea

crystal palace 2 - 1 everton

leicester 1 - 3 man city

liverpool 1 - 1 southampton

west brom 0 - 3 chelsea

man utd 3 - 0 newcastle

watford 1 - 2 west ham

 

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Leicester City v Manchester City

Leicester City: Robert Huth (0/0 d), Matthew James (4/0 m)

Manchester City: Vincent Kompany (3/0 d, captain), Fabian Delph (6/1 m)(both doubtful), Nicolas Otamendi (11/2 d, suspended), Benjamin Mendy (4/0 d)

 

Liverpool FC v Southampton

Liverpool FC: Sadio Mané (6/3 f), Adam Lallana (0/0 m)(both doubtful), Danny Ward (0/0 g), Nathaniel Clyne (0/0 d), Adam Bogdan (0/0 g)

Southampton: Mario Lemina (7/0 m), Jeremy Pied (0/0 d)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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I am expecting Chelsea to continue with good run after last 3 wins, other game that i am thinking of is Bournemouth to win vs Huddersfield.

Bournemouth after the slow start now are getting better and this game is about right for them to get home win.Huddersfield will struggle away from home this season, have not scored even single goal on the last 4 games away.

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Newcastle has 8 out of 11 under 2.5 and four out of five under 2.5 away. It also comes from three under 2.5 and five in six most recent games. An important match for the two teams, as I have mentioned elsewhere, is that Manchester and Mourinho are mainly based on the defense team, wanting to secure first zero defense and then win, while Newcastle has a lot good defense, accepting goals very difficult, today, I expect a very closed match with few goals
MANCHESTER UNITED vs NEWCASTLE UNITED @@ +2.50 Under, odds 2.05

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

Arsenal have won their last 10 home games in Premier League.
Man Utd have won their last 6 home games in Premier League.
Man City have scored at least 3 goals in 88% of their last 8 games in Premier League.
Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 86% of their last 7 home games in Premier League.


You can find interesting 71 Football Betting Streaks for 18.11.2017 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-streaks-18-11-2017

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I have gone for

Loverpool most corners - Saints will sit deep and defend well. They are the most organised team I have seen at the Amex this season.

Liverpool Win & BTTS NO 2.4

Crystal Palace V EVERTON -  - Under 2.5 & BTTS NO 2.2

Burnely V Swansea - U2.5 & BTTS NO 1.9

Leics V MAN City 02.5 & BTTS YES 1.95 ( Should be a few goals here)

 

 

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I agree with most of you on the Burnley game. Most of the games with Burnley involved end 0-1 and I don´t think this one will be a exception.

Burnley - Swasea under 1,5 goals   2,68

I think Leicester will score at home against city, their offence is still lokking really good and scoring a lot of goals.
But I dont think they will stand a chance defensively against Man C.

Leicester - Man City Over 3,5 goals   2,1

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League


73% of Brighton & Hove's games had under 2 goals in Premier League.
There have been over 2 goals scored in 88% of Stoke's last 8 games in Premier League.

You can find interesting 47 Football Betting Streaks for 20.11.2017 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-streaks-20-11-2017

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Brighton v Stoke

 MON 2017-11-20

A Monday night tussle, with no clear favorite. 

Brighton have done well at home this season. They lost to Man CIty (most teams will), but had solid wins over Newcastle and WBA. They have been defensively solid in the 1st half of games, with 4 clean sheets. 

Stoke are totally unpredictable. Beat Watford away, lose to Everton and Newcastle, and drop points against WBA. They are grinding for away goals. To me they have stagnated, and seem to be grinding through seasons, playing dour football under Hughes. They won't be relegated, but this team won't win anything either. It's like a couple that have been married for 35 years. Everything is too comfortable !

I am not mad on splashing the cash in a game like this. These two sides could put you to sleep :\ 

If you are going to watch the game, and want a little interest, keep the bet small, and go for bigger odds.

One bet that does interest me here, is highest scoring half (2nd). Your bet wins if you get the half with the most goals correct. If you go for highest scoring half (2nd), a draw (say 2-0 1st half and 1-1 second half), loses your bet. 

Brighton have the lowest 1st half goals per game average in the EPL (0.4), with just 2 1st half goals in 5 matches played. Second half there have been 9 goals, with a 1.8 goals per game average. I think the more goals 2nd half, is the bet here. Two teams that will keep it tight for the first 45, with the game opening up a little in the 2nd half. 

Highest scoring half(2nd) - Odds 2.15  

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