StevieDay1983

Premier League Predictions > Feb 10th - 12th

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The next round of Premier League matches are coming up soon and we have the North London Derby taking centre stage this week. I will post up a few previews later in the week but feel free to get some early chat going. Are there any teams you're keen to back or avoid right now?

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Provisionally, I would come back to add odds and reasoning once I have done some research.

Spurs - Arsenal: BTTS & O2.5

Soton - Liverpool: 2

Stoke - Brighton: U2.5

Swansea - Burnley: U2.5

West Ham - Watford: BTTS

Newcastle - United: BTTS NO or 2 & U2.5

Could see Bournemouth beating Huddersfield and the odds are nice @ 2.30 odd

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West Ham Utd V Watford

Watford +0.25 AH @ 1.85 Betvictor

West Ham have been in a difficult moment of late with a serious injury crisis and although players are starting to return I still feel this match with Watford will be a tricky one. Arnautovic, Lanzini and Carroll are still set to miss out for the home side and the first two players in that set are particularly crucial to the hammers fortunes. A 3-1 defeat at Brighton would not have lifted the mood in the camp and there is always a danger of West Ham's home support imploding in on the team when things are not going well.

Watford have also staggered of late but the 4-1 home victory to Chelsea should have lifted the mood and restored some confidence to Javi Gracia's side. The Hornets really do have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to attacking players and they can be a menace to any side in this division on their day. They are also strong away from home and that's another reason why I like them here, if West Ham push too hard for the win it will play to Watford's strengths.

Looking at the metrics and the EPL table we can see that these two sides are closely matched. However, I have Watford slightly ahead by most measures and do not see them having a disadvantage by being the away team here. ELO ratings also show attacking advantage has faded for West Ham in recent matches and this correlates with injuries to Arnautovic and Lanzini.

AH markets currently have West Ham 0 line around 1.75 and Watford 0 line around 2.25. In my view this should be the other way round with Watford slight favourites for the match all things considered. Because Watford had such a big win against Chelsea I am concerned this may move the markets and compromise value so I am not going to wait for more detailed team news and back Watford early here.

Will keep folks posted if there are further developments.

 

 

 

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Tottenham vs Arsenal

It's the North London Derby this weekend and, once again, Spurs come into this game as the pre-match favourites. Just a few years ago that thought would have seemed unimaginable. It is a credit to Pochettino that he has made Tottenham such a force. It is also a damning indictment against Wenger to see how far the Gunners have fallen. Still, more importantly, this is a match between 5th and 6th place with a race for the Champions League places firmly ongoing.

Tottenham are likely to include Alderweireld and Rose after their injury spells following their returns against Newport County in midweek. It looks like Spurs fans will have to wait for the introduction of Lucas Moura as he continues his march to match fitness. Arsenal face a wait on Cech and Monreal but both should be fit to start after coming off against Everton.

The real telling factor in this game is the home and away form. Tottenham have a record of 8 wins, 4 draws, and just 1 loss at Wembley this season. Arsenal have struggled on the road with just 3 wins, 4 draws, and 6 defeats. Arsenal also only have 1 win against Tottenham in the last 5 meetings. However, that was their last meeting back on 18th November, 2017 when the Gunners won 2-0 at the Emirates. The outcome of this game is in the balance but there should be goals in this. I might just favour a Spurs win but this is exactly the sort of game where Arsenal defy the odds. It's a push finding value here so keen to hear your thoughts. I apologise for being a little pedestrian here.

BTTS @ 1.50 with Betfair

Tottenham to score 2+ goals @ 1.70 with Coral

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On 06/02/2018 at 10:05 AM, KikoCy said:

Provisionally, I would come back to add odds and reasoning once I have done some research.

Spurs - Arsenal: BTTS & O2.5

Soton - Liverpool: 2

Stoke - Brighton: U2.5

Swansea - Burnley: U2.5

West Ham - Watford: BTTS

Newcastle - United: BTTS NO or 2 & U2.5

Could see Bournemouth beating Huddersfield and the odds are nice @ 2.30 odd

You're pretty much thinking along the same lines as me. Although the one change for me may be to put SOU V LIV as BTTS. The new signings for the Saints look prettty decent and they may start picking points up soon. Liverpool could win it though, but I am finding goals better than results at the moment.

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1 hour ago, Tiffy said:

@Mindfulness

Any value in Brighton on +0.5@ 1.7?

Locadia should be fit & ready after his £16m move, Ulloa raring to go too. Think it certainly kept Glenn & Gross on their toes last week and could do the same again this week?

That particular selection was on my shortlist but I've decided to leave it alone because metrics and ELO do not favour Brighton here.

You're right to highlight Brighton's new forward additions because that may make past performance less relevant and also agree that it boosts the performance of other players.

Generally I feel the Stoke V Brighton game is hard to price in present circumstances but markets don't appear to have done a terrible job in any case. Valuations seem to be in the right ball park so it's a no bet for me.

I'm not advising you or others to avoid backing the away side, just saying what I'm gonna do.

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3 hours ago, Tiffy said:

You're pretty much thinking along the same lines as me. Although the one change for me may be to put SOU V LIV as BTTS. The new signings for the Saints look prettty decent and they may start picking points up soon. Liverpool could win it though, but I am finding goals better than results at the moment.

Indeed! I see BTTS as likely too, given Liverpool's poor clean sheet record away from home.

Now to consider which one of these bets will go balls up...

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2 hours ago, KikoCy said:

Indeed! I see BTTS as likely too, given Liverpool's poor clean sheet record away from home.

Now to consider which one of these bets will go balls up...

Haha yes! Expect Brighton to let you down, they generally do with me!

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23 minutes ago, sajtion said:

arsenal are full strength but so are tottenham but i still think arsenal win it 2-1

The more I am thinking about it, the more I am being tempted by the draw. Three of the last five meetings have been draws. On paper, it's hard to split the teams. I think Pochettino is the better manager right now. In terms of more long odds bets, I am also tempted to back Kane and Aubameyang to score anytime.

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2 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:

The more I am thinking about it, the more I am being tempted by the draw. Three of the last five meetings have been draws. On paper, it's hard to split the teams. I think Pochettino is the better manager right now. In terms of more long odds bets, I am also tempted to back Kane and Aubameyang to score anytime.

a draw makes sense but the way i see it tottenham has got huge game in champions league on tuesday. they are already 4 points ahead of arsenal so pochettino he will be thinking let's just not lose but i know arsenal will want it more. you could say arsenal have been shambles in some of their games but when their squad was fully fit they played excellent. they have a good record at wembley too and they aubameyang is pacey player. i think they arsenal will ace their performance and get back in contention for champions league

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Tottenham v Arsenal

Tottenham: no absences

Arsenal: Petr Čech (26/0 first goalkeeper, doubtful), Santi Cazorla (0/0 m)

 

Everton FC v Crystal Palace

Everton FC: Ramiro Funes Mori (0/0 d), James McCarthy (4/0 m), Maarten Stekelenburg (0/0 g), Leighton Baines (13/2 d)

Crystal Palace: Julian Speroni (11/0 g), Wilfried Zaha (20/4 m), Martin Kelly (11/0 d), Ruben Loftus-Cheek (16/1 m), Jeffrey Schlupp (19/0 d), Scott Dann (17/1 d), Jason Puncheon (10/0 m), Connor Wickham (0/0 f), Bakary Sako (16/3 m)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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6 hours ago, IBETTING said:
  • Wolverhampton – QPR | 1,45
  • Cowdenbeath - Stirling Albion | 2,20
  • Berwick Rangers – Clyde | 2,20

 

more to come

What are the reasons for your tips? Simply listing the picks and odds is a little spammy. Interested to hear why you've gone for those picks. Also, try to keep your picks posted in the relevant sections. :ok

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Arsenal has a total of 15 goals in 26 goals and eight goals in 12 away goalscorers. Very interesting game, before the European matches, the two teams will give it all for an easy win, without losses, have excellent offensive lines, can easily score and confirm that both teams score
TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR vs ARSENAL FC @@ Both team to score, odds 1.57

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Brighton's last 8 away games in Premier League.
Crystal Palace have scored in each of their last 5 away matches in Premier League.
There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Man City's last 12 home games in Premier League.
Tottenham have won with at least a 2 goal margin in 83% of their last 6 home games in Premier League.
Man City have won their last 12 home games in Premier League.

You can find interesting 78 Football Betting Streaks for 10.02.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-streaks-10-02-2018-7681

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Tottenham vs Arsenal

Hasn't been a solid season with Arsenal, currently sitting at 6th in the league, while their rivals Tottenham at sitting at 5th.

With the final 1/3 of the season, still a good chance to close the gap, finish above the rivals and return back into top 4. Just need more consistency and motivation.

Any news on Tottenham's squad, considering they have a UCL match with Juventus during mid-week ?

Here are some interesting facts:

1) It is exactly 9 years and 2 days since the last 0-0 goalless draw between both sides.

2) The last time Arsenal went into the final 1/3 season at current position is 2005/06 season (they ended the season at 4th)

Far-stretched statistics:

Tottenham have won their 27th league game in the last 3 EPL seasons

 

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Some good posts here today.

Spreadex have set the time of the first Arsenal goal at 51mins.  I'd be surprised if they didn't score in the first half, perhaps even taking the lead early on. Their January signings will relish the big stage that Wembley offers. This game should have plenty of goals, and I think that this offers the best route to a decent profit.

Sell time of first Arsenal goal at 51mins for 1pt

Although I have also taken BTTS & O2.5@ 1.7.  with B365

Edited by Tiffy

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STOKE V BRIGHTON

I know everyone has this as an unders game, but there is no point in either team playing for a point. Brighton's last match featured 4 goals, and the reverse fixture featured 4 goals.

i can see goals in this match, especially with the increased competition in the striking department at Brighton.

id be surprised if Brighton got beat too, so have taken the following bet with B365

BRIGHTON DNB@ 2.25

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Everton-Crystal Palace 1(2.20 bet 365)

I give my home advantage only because of the list of injured guests. The Crystal Palace game is based on a lesser number on Wilfrid's inviduality, without him, statistic says that they have got 1 lost and left. I prefer Everton because Big Sam was the manager of Crystal Palace last season and knows how is in Crystal Palace function.And  there is a war between these two men who are not in good relations and here I see both teams and especially Everton playing with the motive more.

 

Edited by MaliMisko12

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Swansea City-Burnley 1(2.45 bet365)

I belive in win of Swansea because,with replacement of manager is obviously got good atmosphere in club.I watched whole match against Notts County,they looked like so confidence,from goalkepper to striker and 3 substitution(won of them score the goal).Second Burnley doesnt look so good on pitch after draw against United,something is wrong there.Last match against Man City looks good but they always looks good on home pitch but  on guest they doesnt looks dominate as like were in first part of the season.

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