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Total Posts -
Posts
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York 4.15
Thursdays Child
Bet365 14/1
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Bet 53 won. Next stake £2806.30
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6 minutes ago, Maxi Stavros said:
I think that’s where most of my losses occurred and I think it proves your point that placing bets needing 5 or 6 outcomes all the be correct has an added difficulty on top of the accumulated odds.
It's not so much that there's an added difficulty as that, if you can't make a profit from singles, then you multiply that "negative edge" by combining your selections in bigger multiples. The more legs, the worse the expected return. If you do have an edge on singles then you multiply it by doing accas. But you have to be sensible as the bigger the odds the greater the variance. If you only punt 1000/1 shots then you're going to have to endure very long losing runs and would need a huge sample to know whether you're beating the odds or not. At the other extreme, there's more value in the 3/1 double than two even money singles that should be a shade of odds on so it is a viable approach.
14 minutes ago, Maxi Stavros said:I did have a spell betting on bet builders as William hill have a 50% bet boost on these once a week, however bet builders are just awful, I don’t think I’ve ever won one which had 4 or more selections.
Bet Builders are just multiple bets with the added restriction of having to be on a single event. It's harder to find multiple value selections on a single event and harder to work out fair odds where there are related contingencies at work. So they're like multis but even harder. I only tend to play them where I can get two value goalscorers in the same game and try to make use of any available boosts. I made a decent profit on them last year but am only just in front this year. I don't do too many and only build them around goalscorers where I believe I have a bit of an edge.
21 minutes ago, Maxi Stavros said:Surely it’s not possible over hundreds of bets to get more than 3%.
I managed 3.05% from 1645 anytime bets last year but it seems to be trending upwards. It's 8.67% this year and now 5.1% from 2524 bets in total. We'll see how it goes but it's reasonably encouraging, There's a tipster I'm aware of who just does that market and he was running at around 9% last year but fell of a cliff and is down to around 2% now. His ROI over the last 12 months has been so bad I could have beat it by betting blindly!
26 minutes ago, Maxi Stavros said:You get better returns on the premium bonds that that.
Your missing something here. £50k locked away for a year at 3% would earn £1500. I could have made that last year (when my ROI was around 3%) with a much smaller betting bank. Even without a progressive staking plan compounding the growth you're turning the same stake over repeatedly so you wouldn't need a £50k bank to have staked £50k over a year. 3% betting ROI generates a better return on capital than 3% simple interest.
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Osaka did quite well, especially as clay might not be her favourite surface
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3.45 York
Friendly Soul (evens, William Hill)
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