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4.55 ripon missmimi 66/1 e/w bet365
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Now this is what I call a proper tournament. Plenty in contention going into the final round. Too close to call in my opinion though for obvious reasons I will be rooting for Theegala and Schauffele.
If I don't win, good luck to the rest of the guys on here with their selections.
🤞
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Morning everyone, I've just been working back through the info I've sent since reappearing and here is an update below. For the record, unless stated to go e/w (which is rare), the rule of thumb was to just back info 2pt win as although you go longer without returns, long term the profit far surpassed 1pt e/w on horses ranging between 5/1 and let's say 14/1.
The other issue is being able to post the info as quickly as possible to get the price (which I sometimes miss as is life).
Below are the info selections I've provided recently with the advised odds when given to me...
Mighty Nebula 4/1 won = 2pt win returned 10pts 💥
Not So Sobers 16/1 2nd = this was actually advised to me as 1pt e/w so would return 4.2pts 🥈
Lead Artist 4/1 2nd = this somehow got beat on debut but reppposed on Friday and annihilated the horse who somehow beat it on debut. 2pts lost 🥈
Cat Ninja 2nd 5/1 = 2pts lost 🥈
Moswaat 8th 12/1 = 2pts lost 💩
Chortal 6th 6/1 = 2pts lost 💩
Vinny's Dream 4th 50/1 = 2pts lost (this was obviously 1pt e/w and got done on the line for 3rd 🤮) could have been an 11pt return 🤷🏼♂️
Moving Force 8/1 won = 2pt win returned 18pts 💥
The Outlaw 8th 15/2 = 2pts lost 💩
Yak Mo Be There 8/1 2nd = this somehow lost and is firmly in the tracker. 2pts lost 🤮 🥈
Blessed Honour 8/1 2nd = 2pts lost 🥈
Maw Lam 14/1 won = 30pts returned 💥
****I'm not including Dr Lockdown as that was from a different source so will not provide us with an accurate reflection of results.
24pts staked across the 12 bets provided with a return of 62.2pts.
62.2 - 24 = +38.2pts
So as you can see, it probably does pay to just back 2pt win unless stated.
Good luck today 💥
Edited by Hotspur88 -
13 hours ago, Darran said:
Back to the jumps action on Sunday and the first visit of the season to Casterton where Elvision will be bidding to win yet again over the hedge fences. First though there are 3 hurdle races.
Race 1
When I saw Dubai Moon was going over 3500m I was a little concerned, but it really should be his chance to break his maiden tag over hurdles. The Pakenham 2nd was franked when the winner followed up at Warrnambool and the horse that beat him at Warrnambool was very impressive. What is also crucial is that his two main rivals in the market were behind him in those 2 races. Maatsuyker was 3rd and could improve for that first run, but he didn't look like he needed the extra 300m. Jack Knows Best was only 2/1 at Pakenham and only beat 1 home. I suspect that was too bad to be true and his run on the flat was good prior to that over 3300m at Warrnambool. It should be one of those 3 and I take Dubai Moon to get the deserved success with Jack Knows Best the main danger.
Dubai Moon 1pt @ 7/5 with Bet365
Race 2
A tricky race to weigh up as we have a horse in the shape of Oceanic Flash who is making his debut over hurdles but has some very good flat form this year against 3 horses who all showed good placed form in the maidens at Warrnambool. Wilewink finished a good 2nd whilst Pressfal and Freddie The Eagle finished pretty much upsides each other when 3rd and 4th in a different division. They both ran like the step up in trip would suit. I don’t have a strong view but those two are the bigger prices and offer a little bit of value to small stakes given how well they finished off their races that day.
Freddie The Eagle 0.5pts @ 18/5 with bet365
Pressfal 0.5pts @ 9/2 with Bet365
Race 3The handicap hurdle on the card and Teofilo Star is odds on. He fell on his hurdle return in March when he was very short odds to win. He had looked very promising in two wins this time last year and then he went back on the flat and he won at Flemington. His two flat runs since the fall haven’t been great and whilst the chances are he’s the best horse in the race taking odds on makes no appeal.
The issue is I don’t really fancy anything to beat him. Bazini looked good when winning his maiden at Warrnambool and that form might get a boost in the previous race. He’s priced up tight enough though. That’s Incranibull has been a bit frustrating for me whilst El Diez always tends to run his race and is so tough given how often he runs. He looks high enough in the weights now though.
Ultimately this is a no bet race for me.
Race 5
One day no doubt Elvison will be beaten over this unique course but he has won his last 6 races here and he grows an extra leg when he sees the hedge fences. I thought he would be favourite and I can’t believe the price he is. Obviously he is a year older and I’d possibly have preferred another run, but his trainer would have got him ready to peak for this so it shouldn’t be a concern. I’m never worried about how he runs away from here as like I say he grows an extra leg round here.
Tom Foolery has been put in as favourite after his two incredible back to back runs at Warrnambool. For him to win the BM120 on the Wednesday and then finish a fast finishing 3rd in the Grand Annual the following day was some effort. I respect his chances on those efforts and he jumped better than he had at Pakenham but he’s got a proper course specialist to beat.
Might Oasis is having a good season and will be a danger although he was beaten by the selection here last year. Gunaluva is a stablemate of Elvison and I just don’t get where he is shorter in the betting than him. Obviously I don’t know for certain but if Symon didn’t say Elvison was the better hope I’d be surprised. We took full advantage of Elvison being a massive price last season so hopefully we can again here.
Elvison 3pts @ 9/2 with Bet365
Elvison 👏🏼💥
I tried to back last night when I read your post but only bet365 were priced up so I had to leave it. Of course it won 🤣🤦🏼♂️.
Well done 👍🏼
I've just seen you had a full house 🤯. The only time I haven't been able to get the bets on and you have a full house 🤮
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16.15 Newmarket
Tradesman 7/1 william hill
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