Robinnho Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 FAA might have lost in the opening round of the RG last 2 years but he has a new coach last year, Toni Nadal, the ex-coach of Rafael Nadal. FAA is much better prepared this time and in much better condition compared to the last 2 editions. Therefore I think winning the 1st round this time within 4 sets is within his ability. amity and four-leaf 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 Hugo Dellien/Dom Thiem over 38.5 games at 1.85 with Nordicbet Here I think we'll probably see something of a tussle where both players will grind out some sets. Even if Dom is lagging behind nowadays after injuries he's not someone you just run over easily in a claymatch. Robinnho and CzechPunter 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raduvlad1995 Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 yeah thiem my 2nd favorite player might never actualy come anywhere near to his top level again it seems...incredible how after us open at the peak of his career someone with his work ethic just let it all slip away especialy in his prime. Took zandschulp to win, I like what I ve seen from him on clay this year and tbh don t realy know who his oponent even is, I also went with borges taking a set of khachanov,risky but worth it IMO, I think borges will fight hard. CzechPunter 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinningTipster Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 3 picks for the WTA French Open matches tomorrow: SWIATEK-7 GAMES HANDICAP OVER TSURENKO @ 1.52 pinnacle Swiatek is certaintly a no.1 favorite to win the tournament. Tsurenko has not been at good form lately. SABALENKA-6 GAMES HANDICAP OVER PAQUET @ 1.56 pinnacle Sabalenka is not at her best in 2022, but still is good enough to win easily. BADOSA-6 GAMES HANDICAP OVER FERRO @ 1.44 pinnacle Ferro is a good clay court player but she is out of form this season, Badosa almost always wins those matches easily. Robinnho and amity 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainz Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 Sadly Thiem is right now a whipping boy Heisenberg68 and raduvlad1995 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted May 22, 2022 Author Share Posted May 22, 2022 Oh Jabeur! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilovan Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 (edited) 6 minutes ago, CzechPunter said: Oh Jabeur! This is gonna be a long tournament. Can't get past the 1st leg of the 1st bet. And Schwartzman getting bagel'ed in 2nd set , and Altmaier losing his serve 16 times Edited May 22, 2022 by neilovan delfino and CzechPunter 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delfino Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 Seems that Thiem is lost in space at the moment. I don't know what to expect from him in future. Perhaps a new Del Porto case? Nadal won his first Roland Garros title in 2005 at the age of 19. Alcaraz is 19 years old! If Tsitsipas don't get rid of his mug father, no chance to make any progress. I agree that he hasn't improve his game in the last 3 years. He is moving backwards instead of forwards. I can not understand why he dosn't fire for ever a father that destroys him with his ugly and rude behavior. For me Alcaraz/Swiatek to win in ATP and WTA respectively. raduvlad1995 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted May 22, 2022 Author Share Posted May 22, 2022 @delfino I agree that he should find a new coach, but firing one's father isn't as easy as it sounds most of the time (unless he's happy for someone else to take over). Torque 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilovan Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 17 hours ago, neilovan said: At the moment I can't pick three winners in a bet (over 1.6 odds). I can find low priced winners that deliver but get bored with it. I feel that I am risking so much to win relatively little, that I lose my discipline and blow profits with nonsense. Very hard to keep ones discipline. Have 5 low priced bets tomorrow, and may just take them as a five legged bet. Alcaraz to win 3:0 against Londero (Odds of 1.25 are decent for me) Brooksby to beat Cuevas Jabeur to beat LInette (Jabeaur has played close to 27 round 1/2/3 matches on clay since 2018, losing just 3 times). Fernandez to beat Mladanovic and Bouzkova to beat L Davis gives odds of around 2.2 to 1 which is decent for me. There are some up and coming players flying a little under the radar. Daniel Altmaier and Alex Molcan are two that are pretty decent. They don't give up and they don't get run over and demolished either. I think Altmaier wins at least a set against Munar and he covers the +5 handicap (odds 1.77). I also see that Schwartzman is 1.64 to win in 3 sets against Kuznetsov. Last year Schwartzman got to the quarters at the French, winning 4 matches all in straight sets, before losing to Nadal. I expect him to do quite well again this year. I will take Altmaier (+5 games) and Schwartzman (3:0) sets) as a double which works out around 2 to 1 How excellent Jabeur loses, Brooksby going same way (6-2 6-1 so far), counting points won. At least you can only lose a bet once. 2nd bet both legs lost. Absolutely excellent start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilovan Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, neilovan said: This is gonna be a long tournament. Can't get past the 1st leg of the 1st bet. And Schwartzman getting bagel'ed in 2nd set , and Altmaier losing his serve 16 times On a weird day like this where nobody performs, just take your loss and live to fight another day. If you chase in this moment, you compound the error, normally make bad judgements and lose more. I'm starting to think that in play betting looks a slightly safer bet at the moment. Brooksby losing 6-1 6-2 6-1 to Cuevas. Really! Edited May 22, 2022 by neilovan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raduvlad1995 Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 1 hour ago, delfino said: Seems that Thiem is lost in space at the moment. I don't know what to expect from him in future. Perhaps a new Del Porto case? Nadal won his first Roland Garros title in 2005 at the age of 19. Alcaraz is 19 years old! If Tsitsipas don't get rid of his mug father, no chance to make any progress. I agree that he hasn't improve his game in the last 3 years. He is moving backwards instead of forwards. I can not understand why he dosn't fire for ever a father that destroys him with his ugly and rude behavior. For me Alcaraz/Swiatek to win in ATP and WTA respectively. this. The thing is delpo was still great before his last injury, domi is just realy bad(especialy on the big points). As for stef, the guy indeed was better IMO last year than this year. His return hasn t improved, his defensive slice is absolute garbage and he just gives players easy floaty volleys to hit intot the open court. Also as far as I can see, even his fh ain t as lethal as it used to be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lelit Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 (edited) Almost with surprise and compassion I watch tipsters betting several legged matches with very small odds. How long does it take to recover with just one missed match? Later we are witnesses of the lamentation of these heroic investors Edited May 22, 2022 by lelit neilovan and CzechPunter 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilovan Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 (edited) 28 minutes ago, lelit said: Almost with surprise and compassion I watch tipsters betting several legged matches with very small odds. How long does it take to recover with just one missed match? Later we are witnesses of the lamentation of these heroic investors Lol, you don't understand basic mathematics. It takes about 6 winners to recover, but I seem to make 8 winners (on average and much more when going really well), for every low priced loser. I don't take big bets on 5 legged bets, so variable staking works, especially when you win big, and lose small/smaller. So in 26 bets if I lose 2 it takes 12 bets to get the 2 lost bets back, but my other 12 bets are all profit. I tend not to bring up the winning streaks, but 2nd favorites losing first round annoys me, especially from 1 set up and cruising. 5/11/2022Tsitsipas v Dimitrov777386505343Tsitsipas 5/11/2022Gauff v Brengle737371303343Gauff, Cori 5/11/2022Jabeur v Tomljanovic778888302714Jabeur, Ons 5/11/2022C Lui v A Gasanova757571474357C Lui 5/11/2022Sinner v Fognini778786272742Sinner 5/12/2022Zverev v De Minuar777386232014Zverev 5/12/2022Tsitsipas v Khackanov777386202029Tsitsipas 5/12/2022Sinner v Krajinovic77878623130Sinner 5/12/2022Jabeur v Putintseva7788100435343Jabeur, Ons 5/12/2022Wiatek v Azarenka8794100434029Swaitek 5/13/2022Zverev v Garin777386301314Zverev 5/13/2022C Lui v V Gracheva757572474043C Lui 5/17/2022A Molcan v Tsonga758383271414A Molcan 5/17/2022Kwon v Bedene705050202614Kwon 5/16/2022Kerber v Parry776729172020A Kerber 5/16/2022Ruusuvouri v Paire809310023130Ruusuvouri 5/17/2022C Lui v Rakhamova75100100414557C Lui 5/17/2022R Marino v P Ormaechea757575332020R Marino 5/17/2022De Minaur v Humbert7087100403314De Minuar 5/17/2022Norrie v F Cerundolo809386473663Norrie 5/17/2022Baez v Otte757186393343Baez 5/18/2022Ruud v Paire80696323130Ruud 5/19/2022Opelka v Griekspoor778886323143Opelka 5/19/2022Ivashka v J Sousa778171203343Ivashka 5/19/2022Gasquet v Majchrzak73735711120Gasquet 5/21/2022Ruud v J Sousa776950203343C Ruud I am in big profit. Just gotta no react and take the defeats with the victories. I know the strategy works. Does yours? I would like to win, and I would like you to win as well. I derive no pleasure from seeing anyone (except the bookmakers) lose. Edited May 22, 2022 by neilovan raduvlad1995 and CzechPunter 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilovan Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 Definitely seeing big opportunities for in play betting. Took Auger Aliasimme on a big bet just as he won the 4th set. only 1.37 but it was the right bet. I think Ramos Vinolas leading Kokkinajkis 5-3 30-40 looks decent at odds of 1.65. Kokkinakis should really not be able to beat a natural clay court player, who spent his life playing on similar courts. Heisenberg68 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lelit Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 I treat tennis betting as entertainment, I bet low stakes, usually doubles, often on WTA and very often 3 set score. My tips must have some value; never bet like you. I have a positive balance sheet; did not transfer money to any of bookmaker in more than 2 years. I don't plan on getting rich through betting or gambling, I take care of my mental state I have watched several betting forums, in some of them with participation of true experts, but have never met anyone who promoted your style of betting. If you ask any bettor, he is regularly winning money Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilovan Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 (edited) 15 minutes ago, lelit said: I treat tennis betting as entertainment, I bet low stakes, usually doubles, often on WTA and very often 3 set score. My tips must have some value; never bet like you. I have a positive balance sheet; did not transfer money to any of bookmaker in more than 2 years. I don't plan on getting rich through betting or gambling, I take care of my mental state I have watched several betting forums, in some of them with participation of true experts, but have never met anyone who promoted your style of betting. If you ask any bettor, he is regularly winning money good luck , each to his own. I hope you win, but no need to be personal. You suggest I don't care of my mental state, and that I don't win. You really know nothing about me! If you had to have bet on Swiatek every match of her 28 match winning streak, value or no value, would you be making money? Of course. So how do you really determine value? Its like trying to measure talent, which is equally ambiguous and fluid. Edited May 22, 2022 by neilovan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raduvlad1995 Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 22 minutes ago, lelit said: I treat tennis betting as entertainment, I bet low stakes, usually doubles, often on WTA and very often 3 set score. My tips must have some value; never bet like you. I have a positive balance sheet; did not transfer money to any of bookmaker in more than 2 years. I don't plan on getting rich through betting or gambling, I take care of my mental state I have watched several betting forums, in some of them with participation of true experts, but have never met anyone who promoted your style of betting. If you ask any bettor, he is regularly winning money don t know why people like you don t mind their own business and need to meddle into others. Also you can write here that you" re great and win all the time , and that could probably be a complete lie since anyone can brag without having proof of the actual reality. CzechPunter 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lelit Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 I didn't suggest anything about you, no need for your manipulation. It was about only mine mental state and I don't care about your winning or loses. Value bets? It's where your percentage predictions of the match result meet the wrong bookmakers price. mark22 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilovan Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 (edited) 6 minutes ago, lelit said: I didn't suggest anything about you, no need for your manipulation. It was about only mine mental state and I don't care about your winning or loses. Value bets? It's where your percentage predictions of the match result meet the wrong bookmakers price. No manipulation, just reacting to your comments. What exactly are your percentage predictions based on ... I'm always open to learning something? My predictions are based on machine learning models, back testing against thousands of matches, a pretty decent understanding of tennis and data crunching. Vinolas is making me wrooried. Gonna take a little loss and vacate the building. Edited May 22, 2022 by neilovan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lelit Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 (edited) You can find the definition of value bet on google. Some years ago I found a reputable Australian website whose owners had some computer systems that determines value bet. They have had many years of progress. The subscription was quite expensive. Later I wrote privately with one of the employees, he knew little about tennis but a lot of computer processing of the results @Raduvlad1995 Remember we are members of the discussion forum where you can see many different discussions. Save yourself the phrases: "people like you".... Edited May 22, 2022 by lelit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilovan Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 Just now, lelit said: You can find the definition of value bet on google. Some years ago I found a reputable Australian website whose owners had some computer systems that determines value bet. They have had many years of progress. The subscription was quite expensive. Later I wrote privately with one of the employees, he knew little about tennis but a lot of computer processing of the results You think that the bookmakers, get the 'value' wrong often. They don't. They have more data, more computing resources, an array of super bright guys crunching the data. We have no real chance of beating them at their own game. But they want to create a balanced, maximize book. That is the artificial part of the process and that's where you find the 'value'. I call it the imbalance. Torque, raduvlad1995 and CzechPunter 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted May 22, 2022 Author Share Posted May 22, 2022 Please let's stop it here and I'm looking forward to some picks! neilovan, Robinnho, amity and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilovan Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 (edited) I put the rest of the games for today and those for tomorrow through the system. It liked the following WTA matches, winner is first; 5/22/2022 Fernandez v Mladanovic 0.14 5/23/2022 Azarenka v A Bogdan 0.33 5/23/2022 Krejcikova v D Parry 0.2 5/23/2022 Konteveit v Tomljanovic 0.3 5/23/2022 Kerber v Frech 0.4 5/23/2022 Kudermetova v L Zhu 0.25 I am happy to post the picks but I always seem to be ridiculed for posting, so I'm not sure I want the abuse. But use them as an indicator. Maybe just take 1 or 2 of these matchups and find the potential best bets. Edited May 22, 2022 by neilovan Robinnho and CzechPunter 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilovan Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 (edited) As for inplay betting, I quite like the look of the Mmoh v Zapata Miralles match. Miralles won 1st set 7-6, but it should not make the loser of that set a 15 to 1 dog. I'm happy to take a small inplay bet here, odds just too good. Amazing, 15 to 1 on bet365 and 8.5 to 1 locally. Edited May 22, 2022 by neilovan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 41 minutes ago, neilovan said: I put the rest of the games for today and those for tomorrow through the system. It liked the following WTA matches, winner is first; 5/22/2022 Fernandez v Mladanovic 0.14 5/23/2022 Azarenka v A Bogdan 0.33 5/23/2022 Krejcikova v D Parry 0.2 5/23/2022 Konteveit v Tomljanovic 0.3 5/23/2022 Kerber v Frech 0.4 5/23/2022 Kudermetova v L Zhu 0.25 I am happy to post the picks but I always seem to be ridiculed for posting, so I'm not sure I want the abuse. But use them as an indicator. Maybe just take 1 or 2 of these matchups and find the potential best bets. I appreciate your contributions @neilovan and I can completely understand your frustrations. CzechPunter, amity and Robinnho 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted May 22, 2022 Author Share Posted May 22, 2022 Please do @neilovan! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 18 hours ago, Torque said: Two singles and a double for me to kick things off. The first single is Halys to beat Isner and this is ultimately about these conditions not being ideal for Isner. Halys is a decent clay court player and he's at home and if Isner has to rely on tie-breaks things could get interesting. Second single is Pera to beat Teichmann and although I can understand the love for Teichmann, Pera is the kind of player that can beat almost anyone when her game is on song. I'd expect Teichmann to win, but Pera is the play at the prices for me. The double is Zapata Miralles and Sasnovich to win and is about taking on their opponents. Mmoh much prefers hard courts and Wang hasn't had a decent result on clay at this level for some time. 15pts Halys to beat Isner @ 2.70 Boyles 20pts Pera to beat Teichmann @ 3.40 365 10pts Zapata Miralles (vs. Mmoh) x Sasnovich (vs. Wang) @ 1.92 365 So that's the first day in the books. Isner 'Isnered' Halys via three tie-breaks and Pera got blitzed. The double came in though so not a total loss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted May 23, 2022 Share Posted May 23, 2022 I've got two singles, an acca and a couple of outrights ahead of today's play. One single is a favourite and that's Gasquet. The veteran Frenchman gave a good account last week in Geneva and should have too much for Harris, who hasn't really got started yet this season due to injury and who isn't a fan of the clay. The other single is a big dog at a nice price in the shape of Rodriguez Taverna. He lives on clay and hasn't played on anything else for a quite some time, he has some nice wins in qualifying here and he's facing an opponent in Fritz who hasn't played for nearly a month. For the acca, I'm rolling up Cilic, Korda, Martinez and Trevisan which pays plus money. Cilic plays Balazs and looking at the Hungarian's recent form and fitness it's possible he's only turning up for the cheque; Korda has underwhelmed so far this clay swing but Millman could be the perfect opening opponent here as he's fairly limited on clay; Martinez is in poor form since he took the title in Santiago but so is his opponent Laaksonen and the Spaniard beat him here a few years back; and Trevisan is coming here after winning her maiden WTA title in Morocco which should mean she takes care of Dart without too much fuss. On to the outrights and I'm backing Nadal and Tsitsipas on the Men's side. The Nadal bet is a risk due to uncertainties about his foot injury, but if he's able to manage it and not exert himself too much in the early rounds then he should be making the latter stages as usual. I don't think he's ever been this big a price to win this tournament and that's hard to resist. Tsitsipas looks like the player to side with in his half of the draw and his form coming here is good. There's question marks over his mentality, especially after the collapse in the final last year but he really should be able to go deep again. 45pts Gasquet to beat Harris @ 1.57 365 20pts Rodriguez Taverna to beat Fritz @ 7.00 Boyles 10pts Cilic (vs. Balazs) x Korda (vs. Millman) x Martinez (vs. Laaksonen) x Trevisan (vs. Dart) @ 2.06 365 10pts Nadal to win ATP French Open @ 6.49 Betfair Exchange 5pts Tsitsipas to win ATP French Open @ 6.88 Betfair Exchange Robinnho, ElPrincipito007, Heisenberg68 and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg68 Posted May 23, 2022 Share Posted May 23, 2022 Despite all the bad things Benoit Paire can do, everyone knows he has talent. Unfortunately his lack of involvement has totally killed his career. I think he is motivated to win a match or two in Paris. The odds are very good for the first round. four-leaf 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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