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French Open 2022


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FAA might have lost in the opening round of the RG last 2 years but he has a new coach last year, Toni Nadal, the ex-coach of Rafael Nadal.  FAA is much better prepared this time and in much better condition compared to the last 2 editions.  Therefore I think winning the 1st round this time within 4 sets is within his ability.

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yeah thiem my 2nd favorite player might never actualy come anywhere near to his top level again it seems...incredible how after us open at the peak of his career someone with his work ethic just let it all slip away especialy in his prime.   Took zandschulp to win, I like what I ve seen from him on clay this year and tbh don t realy know who his oponent even is, I also went with borges taking a set of khachanov,risky but worth it IMO, I think borges will fight hard.

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3 picks for the WTA French Open matches tomorrow:

SWIATEK-7 GAMES HANDICAP OVER TSURENKO @ 1.52 pinnacle
Swiatek is certaintly a no.1 favorite to win the tournament. Tsurenko has not been at good form lately.

SABALENKA-6 GAMES HANDICAP OVER PAQUET @ 1.56 pinnacle
Sabalenka is not at her best in 2022, but still is good enough to win easily.

BADOSA-6 GAMES HANDICAP OVER FERRO @ 1.44 pinnacle
Ferro is a good clay court player but she is out of form this season, Badosa almost always wins those matches easily.

 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Oh Jabeur!

This is gonna be a long tournament. Can't get past the 1st leg of the 1st bet. And Schwartzman getting bagel'ed in 2nd set , and Altmaier losing his serve 16 times

Edited by neilovan
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Seems that Thiem is lost in space at the moment. I don't know what to expect from him in future. Perhaps a new Del Porto case? 

Nadal won his first Roland Garros title in 2005 at the age of 19. Alcaraz is 19 years old!

If Tsitsipas don't get rid of his mug father, no chance to make any progress. I agree that he hasn't improve his game in the last 3 years. He is moving backwards instead of forwards.

I can not understand why he dosn't fire for ever a father that destroys him with his ugly and rude behavior.

For me Alcaraz/Swiatek to win in ATP and WTA respectively. 

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17 hours ago, neilovan said:

At the moment I can't pick three winners in a bet (over 1.6 odds). I can find low priced winners that deliver but get bored with it. I feel that I am risking so much to win relatively little, that I lose my discipline and blow profits with nonsense. Very hard to keep ones discipline.

Have 5 low priced bets tomorrow, and may just take them as a five legged bet.

Alcaraz to win 3:0 against Londero   (Odds of 1.25 are decent for me)

Brooksby to beat Cuevas

Jabeur to beat  LInette  (Jabeaur has played close to 27 round 1/2/3 matches on clay since 2018, losing just 3 times).

Fernandez to beat Mladanovic and

Bouzkova to beat L Davis   gives odds of around 2.2 to 1  which is decent for me.

 

There are some up and coming players flying a little under the radar.  Daniel Altmaier  and Alex Molcan are two that are pretty decent. They don't give up and they don't get run over and demolished either. I think Altmaier wins at least a set against Munar and he covers the +5 handicap (odds 1.77).

I also see that Schwartzman is 1.64 to win in 3 sets against Kuznetsov. Last year Schwartzman got to the quarters at the French, winning 4 matches all in straight sets, before losing to Nadal. I expect him to do quite well again this year.

I will take Altmaier (+5 games) and Schwartzman (3:0) sets) as a double which works out around 2 to 1

How excellent Jabeur loses, Brooksby going same way (6-2  6-1 so far), counting points won. At least you can only lose a bet once.

2nd bet both legs lost. Absolutely excellent start.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, neilovan said:

This is gonna be a long tournament. Can't get past the 1st leg of the 1st bet. And Schwartzman getting bagel'ed in 2nd set , and Altmaier losing his serve 16 times

On a weird day like this where nobody performs, just take your loss and live to fight another day. If you chase in this moment, you compound the error, normally make bad judgements and lose more. I'm starting to think that in play betting looks a slightly safer bet at the moment. Brooksby losing 6-1 6-2 6-1 to Cuevas. Really!

Edited by neilovan
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1 hour ago, delfino said:

Seems that Thiem is lost in space at the moment. I don't know what to expect from him in future. Perhaps a new Del Porto case? 

Nadal won his first Roland Garros title in 2005 at the age of 19. Alcaraz is 19 years old!

If Tsitsipas don't get rid of his mug father, no chance to make any progress. I agree that he hasn't improve his game in the last 3 years. He is moving backwards instead of forwards.

I can not understand why he dosn't fire for ever a father that destroys him with his ugly and rude behavior.

For me Alcaraz/Swiatek to win in ATP and WTA respectively. 

this. The thing is delpo was still great before his last injury, domi is just realy bad(especialy on the big points). As for stef, the guy indeed was better IMO last year than this year. His return hasn t improved, his defensive slice is absolute garbage and he just gives players easy floaty volleys to hit intot the open court. Also as far as I can see, even his fh ain t as lethal as it used to be.

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Posted (edited)

Almost with surprise and compassion I watch tipsters betting several legged matches with very small odds.
How long does it take to recover with just one missed match?

Later we are witnesses of the lamentation of these heroic investors :)

Edited by lelit
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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, lelit said:

Almost with surprise and compassion I watch tipsters betting several legged matches with very small odds.
How long does it take to recover with just one missed match?

Later we are witnesses of the lamentation of these heroic investors :)

Lol, you don't understand basic mathematics. It takes about 6 winners to recover, but I seem to make 8 winners (on average and much more when going really well), for every low priced loser. I don't take big bets on 5 legged bets, so variable staking works, especially when you win big, and lose small/smaller. So in 26 bets if I lose 2 it takes 12 bets to get the 2 lost bets back, but my other 12 bets are all profit.

I tend not to bring up the winning streaks, but 2nd favorites losing first round annoys me, especially from 1 set up and cruising.

5/11/2022Tsitsipas v Dimitrov777386505343Tsitsipas 

5/11/2022Gauff v Brengle737371303343Gauff, Cori 

5/11/2022Jabeur v Tomljanovic778888302714Jabeur, Ons 

5/11/2022C Lui v A Gasanova757571474357C Lui 

5/11/2022Sinner v Fognini778786272742Sinner 

5/12/2022Zverev v De Minuar777386232014Zverev 

5/12/2022Tsitsipas v Khackanov777386202029Tsitsipas 

5/12/2022Sinner v Krajinovic77878623130Sinner 

5/12/2022Jabeur v Putintseva7788100435343Jabeur, Ons 

5/12/2022Wiatek v Azarenka8794100434029Swaitek 

5/13/2022Zverev v Garin777386301314Zverev 

5/13/2022C Lui v V Gracheva757572474043C Lui 

5/17/2022A Molcan v Tsonga758383271414A Molcan 

5/17/2022Kwon v Bedene705050202614Kwon 

5/16/2022Kerber v Parry776729172020A Kerber 

5/16/2022Ruusuvouri v Paire809310023130Ruusuvouri 

5/17/2022C Lui v Rakhamova75100100414557C Lui 

5/17/2022R Marino v P Ormaechea757575332020R Marino 

5/17/2022De Minaur v Humbert7087100403314De Minuar 

5/17/2022Norrie v F Cerundolo809386473663Norrie 

5/17/2022Baez v Otte757186393343Baez 

5/18/2022Ruud v Paire80696323130Ruud 

5/19/2022Opelka v Griekspoor778886323143Opelka 

5/19/2022Ivashka v J Sousa778171203343Ivashka 

5/19/2022Gasquet v Majchrzak73735711120Gasquet 

5/21/2022Ruud v J Sousa776950203343C Ruud 

I am in big profit. Just gotta no react and  take the defeats with the victories. I know the strategy works. Does yours?

I would like to win, and I would like you to win as well. I derive no pleasure from seeing anyone (except the bookmakers) lose.

Edited by neilovan
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Definitely seeing big opportunities for in play betting. Took Auger Aliasimme on a big bet just as he won the 4th set. only 1.37 but it was the right bet. 

I think Ramos Vinolas leading Kokkinajkis 5-3 30-40 looks decent at odds of 1.65. Kokkinakis should really not be able to beat a natural clay court player, who spent his life playing on similar courts.

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I treat tennis betting as entertainment, I bet low stakes, usually doubles, often on WTA and very often 3 set score.

 My tips must have some value; never bet like you.
 I have a positive balance sheet; did not transfer money to any of bookmaker in more than 2 years. I don't plan on getting rich through betting or gambling, I take care of my mental state :)

I have watched several betting forums, in some of them with participation of true experts, but have never met anyone who promoted your style of betting.
If you ask any bettor, he is regularly winning money :)

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, lelit said:

I treat tennis betting as entertainment, I bet low stakes, usually doubles, often on WTA and very often 3 set score.

 My tips must have some value; never bet like you.
 I have a positive balance sheet; did not transfer money to any of bookmaker in more than 2 years. I don't plan on getting rich through betting or gambling, I take care of my mental state :)

I have watched several betting forums, in some of them with participation of true experts, but have never met anyone who promoted your style of betting.
If you ask any bettor, he is regularly winning money :)

good luck , each to his own. I hope you win, but no need to be personal. You suggest I don't care of my mental state, and that I don't win. You really know nothing about me!

If you had to have bet on Swiatek every match of her 28 match winning streak, value or no value, would you be making money? Of course. So how do you really determine value? Its like trying to measure talent, which is equally ambiguous and fluid.

Edited by neilovan
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22 minutes ago, lelit said:

I treat tennis betting as entertainment, I bet low stakes, usually doubles, often on WTA and very often 3 set score.

 My tips must have some value; never bet like you.
 I have a positive balance sheet; did not transfer money to any of bookmaker in more than 2 years. I don't plan on getting rich through betting or gambling, I take care of my mental state :)

I have watched several betting forums, in some of them with participation of true experts, but have never met anyone who promoted your style of betting.
If you ask any bettor, he is regularly winning money :)

don t know why people like you don t mind their own business and need to meddle into others.  Also you can write here that you" re great and win all the time , and that could probably be a complete lie since anyone can brag without having proof of the actual reality.

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I didn't suggest anything about you, no need for your manipulation. It was about only mine mental state and I don't care about your winning or loses.

Value bets? It's where your percentage predictions of the match result meet the wrong bookmakers price.

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, lelit said:

I didn't suggest anything about you, no need for your manipulation. It was about only mine mental state and I don't care about your winning or loses.

Value bets? It's where your percentage predictions of the match result meet the wrong bookmakers price.

No manipulation, just reacting to your comments. What exactly are your percentage predictions based on ... I'm always open to learning something?  My predictions are based on machine learning models, back testing against thousands of matches, a pretty decent understanding of tennis and data crunching. Vinolas is making me wrooried. Gonna take a little loss and vacate the building.

 

Edited by neilovan
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Posted (edited)

You can find the definition of value bet on google.
Some years ago I found a reputable Australian website whose owners had some computer systems that determines value bet. They have had many years of progress.

The subscription was quite expensive. Later I wrote privately with one of the employees, he knew little about tennis but a lot of computer processing of the results :)

 

@Raduvlad1995

Remember we are members of the discussion forum where you can see many different discussions.

Save yourself the phrases: "people like you"....

Edited by lelit
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Just now, lelit said:

You can find the definition of value bet on google.
Some years ago I found a reputable Australian website whose owners had some computer systems that determines value bet. They have had many years of progress.

The subscription was quite expensive. Later I wrote privately with one of the employees, he knew little about tennis but a lot of computer processing of the results :)

 

You think that the bookmakers, get the 'value' wrong often. They don't. They have more data, more computing resources, an array of super bright guys crunching the data. We have no real chance of beating them at their own game. But they want to create a balanced, maximize book. That is the artificial part of  the process and that's where you find the 'value'. I call it the imbalance.

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Posted (edited)

I put the rest of the games for today and those for tomorrow through the system. It liked the following WTA matches, winner is first;

5/22/2022  Fernandez v Mladanovic    0.14

5/23/2022  Azarenka v A Bogdan  0.33

5/23/2022  Krejcikova v D Parry  0.2

5/23/2022  Konteveit v Tomljanovic  0.3

5/23/2022  Kerber v Frech    0.4

5/23/2022  Kudermetova v L Zhu    0.25

I am happy to post the picks but I always seem to be ridiculed for posting, so I'm not sure I want the abuse. But use them as an indicator. Maybe just take 1 or 2 of these matchups and find the potential best bets. 

Edited by neilovan
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Posted (edited)

As for inplay betting, I quite like the look of the Mmoh v Zapata Miralles match. Miralles won 1st set 7-6, but it should not make the loser of that set a 15 to 1 dog. I'm happy to take a small inplay bet here, odds just too good. Amazing, 15 to 1 on bet365 and 8.5 to 1 locally.

Edited by neilovan
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41 minutes ago, neilovan said:

I put the rest of the games for today and those for tomorrow through the system. It liked the following WTA matches, winner is first;

5/22/2022  Fernandez v Mladanovic    0.14

5/23/2022  Azarenka v A Bogdan  0.33

5/23/2022  Krejcikova v D Parry  0.2

5/23/2022  Konteveit v Tomljanovic  0.3

5/23/2022  Kerber v Frech    0.4

5/23/2022  Kudermetova v L Zhu    0.25

I am happy to post the picks but I always seem to be ridiculed for posting, so I'm not sure I want the abuse. But use them as an indicator. Maybe just take 1 or 2 of these matchups and find the potential best bets. 

I appreciate your contributions @neilovan and I can completely understand your frustrations.

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18 hours ago, Torque said:

Two singles and a double for me to kick things off. The first single is Halys to beat Isner and this is ultimately about these conditions not being ideal for Isner. Halys is a decent clay court player and he's at home and if Isner has to rely on tie-breaks things could get interesting. Second single is Pera to beat Teichmann and although I can understand the love for Teichmann, Pera is the kind of player that can beat almost anyone when her game is on song. I'd expect Teichmann to win, but Pera is the play at the prices for me. The double is Zapata Miralles and Sasnovich to win and is about taking on their opponents. Mmoh much prefers hard courts and Wang hasn't had a decent result on clay at this level for some time.

15pts Halys to beat Isner @ 2.70 Boyles

20pts Pera to beat Teichmann @ 3.40 365

10pts Zapata Miralles (vs. Mmoh) x Sasnovich (vs. Wang) @ 1.92 365

So that's the first day in the books. Isner 'Isnered' Halys via three tie-breaks and Pera got blitzed. The double came in though so not a total loss.

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I've got two singles, an acca and a couple of outrights ahead of today's play. One single is a favourite and that's Gasquet. The veteran Frenchman gave a good account last week in Geneva and should have too much for Harris, who hasn't really got started yet this season due to injury and who isn't a fan of the clay. The other single is a big dog at a nice price in the shape of Rodriguez Taverna. He lives on clay and hasn't played on anything else for a quite some time, he has some nice wins in qualifying here and he's facing an opponent in Fritz who hasn't played for nearly a month.

For the acca, I'm rolling up Cilic, Korda, Martinez and Trevisan which pays plus money. Cilic plays Balazs and looking at the Hungarian's recent form and fitness it's possible he's only turning up for the cheque; Korda has underwhelmed so far this clay swing but Millman could be the perfect opening opponent here as he's fairly limited on clay; Martinez is in poor form since he took the title in Santiago but so is his opponent Laaksonen and the Spaniard beat him here a few years back; and Trevisan is coming here after winning her maiden WTA title in Morocco which should mean she takes care of Dart without too much fuss.

On to the outrights and I'm backing Nadal and Tsitsipas on the Men's side. The Nadal bet is a risk due to uncertainties about his foot injury, but if he's able to manage it and not exert himself too much in the early rounds then he should be making the latter stages as usual. I don't think he's ever been this big a price to win this tournament and that's hard to resist. Tsitsipas looks like the player to side with in his half of the draw and his form coming here is good. There's question marks over his mentality, especially after the collapse in the final last year but he really should be able to go deep again.

 

45pts Gasquet to beat Harris @ 1.57 365

20pts Rodriguez Taverna to beat Fritz @ 7.00 Boyles

10pts Cilic (vs. Balazs) x Korda (vs. Millman) x Martinez (vs. Laaksonen) x Trevisan (vs. Dart) @ 2.06 365

10pts Nadal to win ATP French Open @ 6.49 Betfair Exchange

5pts Tsitsipas to win ATP French Open @ 6.88 Betfair Exchange

 

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Despite all the bad things Benoit Paire can do, everyone knows he has talent. 
Unfortunately his lack of involvement has totally killed his career. 
I think he is motivated to win a match or two in Paris. 

The odds are very good for the first round. 

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