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French Open 2022


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3 hours ago, amity said:

Goffin at 250/1 with Boylesports is too big, especially how the Belgian has performed on clay in the last couple of months, almost beating Nadal. 

come on man, don't want to be rude but that just ain't gonna happen even if goffin has 100 more tries at winning RG

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It's hard to see it happening I agree. That said, Goffin does seem to be playing the best he's played for quite some time and he did take a set against Nadal not too many years ago at RG. Maybe it's worth betting on him to win his quarter or backing him to go further in the draw than another player at lower odds, but with more chance of a winning bet than an outright bet. Unless each-way terms are for four places, I can't see any value in Goffin's price on the basis that him winning the French is even less likely than the odds suggest.

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4 hours ago, raduvlad1995 said:

come on man, don't want to be rude but that just ain't gonna happen even if goffin has 100 more tries at winning RG

Relax dude, I said his price was too big, I didn't say throw a g on it cos he's nailed on to win! ? Also there are occasions where some bookies offer cash outs on such bets, allowing for a profit if he makes it through a few rounds. That's the kind of scenario I'm talking about here. 

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9 hours ago, amity said:

Relax dude, I said his price was too big, I didn't say throw a g on it cos he's nailed on to win! ? Also there are occasions where some bookies offer cash outs on such bets, allowing for a profit if he makes it through a few rounds. That's the kind of scenario I'm talking about here. 

oh cool, didn t know you can cash out on stuff like that. 

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Okay so Novak is rightfully the slight favorite to win the French Open now....

Who else have you got? Personally, I happen to find the prices of Nadal and Alcaraz awfully short. I wouldn't bet a buck on those guys.

My pick: Novak Djokovic (2.90)

My two dark horses: Sinner (35.00) & Zverev (20.00)

 

 

* odds of my local bookmaker

 

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On 5/15/2022 at 10:47 PM, Foo_Fighter said:

Okay so Novak is rightfully the slight favorite to win the French Open now....

Who else have you got? Personally, I happen to find the prices of Nadal and Alcaraz awfully short. I wouldn't bet a buck on those guys.

My pick: Novak Djokovic (2.90)

My two dark horses: Sinner (35.00) & Zverev (20.00)

 

 

* odds of my local bookmaker

 

Sinner has zero chances

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1 hour ago, Foo_Fighter said:

fellow punters, how does the following Bet Request I made look to you?

French Open 2022 Winner (W) - Rybakina or Mertens or Anisimova or Kasatkina or Tauson at 10.00 

Well, I know nothing about tennis but I'd say unappealing at the price. You could easily beat those odds by shopping around and dutching the players yourself, or just by doing so on the exchange. I have no view on the prospect of the players but I reckon you could get at least 15 with a little "leg work".

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1 hour ago, Foo_Fighter said:

fellow punters, how does the following Bet Request I made look to you?

French Open 2022 Winner (W) - Rybakina or Mertens or Anisimova or Kasatkina or Tauson at 10.00 

Doesn't look good to me. Rybakina is too inconsistent, Mertens struggles to get easy wins so wears herself out towards the end of tournaments, Tauson isn't ready yet. At least Anisimova and Kasatkina are in some good form so maybe they could have a run.

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11 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

I have no view on the prospect of the players but I reckon you could get at least 15 with a little "leg work".

16.48 if you dutch best exchange price. Kasatkina is the only player available at better odds with the bookies; 80/1 on offer with PP or Lads. The latter the place to go if you think she's worth an interest as, with boost, you can get her at 100/1 e/w versus just 60 win only on BF.

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Well, the most striking element is that we now have the ATP and the WTA odds turned around from what we had in so many previous years that I've already lost the count. We always had one big ATP favourite heading into Grand Slams and plenty of long shots, while the WTA was a right mess, only perhaps when Barty was in and in form (after Williams times). Now, the ATP is quite open, while the WTA has one big favorite in Swiatek. Hilarious.

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On 5/19/2022 at 4:46 PM, Foo_Fighter said:

fellow punters, how does the following Bet Request I made look to you?

French Open 2022 Winner (W) - Rybakina or Mertens or Anisimova or Kasatkina or Tauson at 10.00 

I think Swaitek to win just looks so solid. What it it now ... 27 matches undefeated?  Nobody can touch her at the moment

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Posted (edited)

At the moment I can't pick three winners in a bet (over 1.6 odds). I can find low priced winners that deliver but get bored with it. I feel that I am risking so much to win relatively little, that I lose my discipline and blow profits with nonsense. Very hard to keep ones discipline.

Have 5 low priced bets tomorrow, and may just take them as a five legged bet.

Alcaraz to win 3:0 against Londero   (Odds of 1.25 are decent for me)

Brooksby to beat Cuevas

Jabeur to beat  LInette  (Jabeaur has played close to 27 round 1/2/3 matches on clay since 2018, losing just 3 times).

Fernandez to beat Mladanovic and

Bouzkova to beat L Davis   gives odds of around 2.2 to 1  which is decent for me.

 

There are some up and coming players flying a little under the radar.  Daniel Altmaier  and Alex Molcan are two that are pretty decent. They don't give up and they don't get run over and demolished either. I think Altmaier wins at least a set against Munar and he covers the +5 handicap (odds 1.77).

I also see that Schwartzman is 1.64 to win in 3 sets against Kuznetsov. Last year Schwartzman got to the quarters at the French, winning 4 matches all in straight sets, before losing to Nadal. I expect him to do quite well again this year.

I will take Altmaier (+5 games) and Schwartzman (3:0) sets) as a double which works out around 2 to 1

Edited by neilovan
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Alright, it's the French Open time!

Who Will Go Further - Novak Djokovic to beat Carlos Alcaraz at 1.90 with Bet365

Despite Alcaraz being such a great force recently, I think that Djokovic is the stronger player in the Bo5 format still and that he has an edge going into this tournament. His Rome performance was much better than in Madrid and I think that he's peaking for the occasion, while Alcaraz is bound to receive a setback at some point, it just happens that way more often than not. At 1.90, this looks worth a shot to me.

Ons Jabeur to win the 3rd quarter at 3.50 with Bet365

Jil Teichmann to win the 4th quarter at 8.00 with Bet365

Two in-form players and the withdrawal from Teichmann in Rome looked more like a precaution to me. Two wilder punts, of course, but I like the odds.

Aslan Karatsev to beat Camilo Ugo Carabelli at 1.75 with BetVictor

It's form against class here, and I'll go with class. Karatsev has to start caring finally and, honestly, many of the matches he's lost on clay so far were reasonably tight and against tougher opposition than Carabelli. With so much on the line, I think there's every chance he'll raise his level and show his class again. Wouldn't back below 1.57.

Donna Vekic to beat Mirjam Bjorklund at 1.57 with Pinnacle

While I'm not ecstatic to back Vekic, I think this is a good price for her to continue her resurgence against Bjorklund, who'll be making a GS debut and who should find this more challenging than Buzarnescu, who Bjorklund beat to qualify in a pretty wild match that could've gone either way despite the scoreline. 

Stanislas Warinka to beat Corentin Moutet at 1.70 with Pinnacle

Wawrinka was struggling and, to be fair, we still don't know if he can last 5 sets. Moutet has been pretty awful recently, though, and he can be all over the place when things stop going his way. I've seen some of Moutet's recent matches and the odds just seem to be too favorable for him to my liking.

Nuria Parrizas-Diaz (-1.5 sets) to beat Leolia Jeanjean at 1.67 with Pinnacle

This looks like one of the bigger WTA mismatches in the first round, Jeanjean has no results at all at this level and there's every chance that she'll just error herself out. NPD has made a lot of progress recently and has plenty of experience with these match-ups.

Christian Garin to beat Tommy Paul at 1.80 with Unibet
Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Maxime Cressy at 1.42 with Pinnacle
David Goffin (-1.5 sets) to beat Jiri Lehecka at 1.78 with Unibet

Not much to be said for these one honestly, I think that the odds are just about worth it, but wouldn't go much below, particularly on Garin. Lehecka was awful last time out and Goffin has already beaten him in this season, while Cressy just shouldn't do this unless Basilashvili breaks mentally.

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19 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Alright, it's the French Open time!

Who Will Go Further - Novak Djokovic to beat Carlos Alcaraz at 1.90 with Bet365

Despite Alcaraz being such a great force recently, I think that Djokovic is the stronger player in the Bo5 format still and that he has an edge going into this tournament. His Rome performance was much better than in Madrid and I think that he's peaking for the occasion, while Alcaraz is bound to receive a setback at some point, it just happens that way more often than not. At 1.90, this looks worth a shot to me.

Ons Jabeur to win the 3rd quarter at 3.50 with Bet365

Jil Teichmann to win the 4th quarter at 8.00 with Bet365

Two in-form players and the withdrawal from Teichmann in Rome looked more like a precaution to me. Two wilder punts, of course, but I like the odds.

Aslan Karatsev to beat Camilo Ugo Carabelli at 1.75 with BetVictor

It's form against class here, and I'll go with class. Karatsev has to start caring finally and, honestly, many of the matches he's lost on clay so far were reasonably tight and against tougher opposition than Carabelli. With so much on the line, I think there's every chance he'll raise his level and show his class again. Wouldn't back below 1.57.

Donna Vekic to beat Mirjam Bjorklund at 1.57 with Pinnacle

While I'm not ecstatic to back Vekic, I think this is a good price for her to continue her resurgence against Bjorklund, who'll be making a GS debut and who should find this more challenging than Buzarnescu, who Bjorklund beat to qualify in a pretty wild match that could've gone either way despite the scoreline. 

Stanislas Warinka to beat Corentin Moutet at 1.70 with Pinnacle

Wawrinka was struggling and, to be fair, we still don't know if he can last 5 sets. Moutet has been pretty awful recently, though, and he can be all over the place when things stop going his way. I've seen some of Moutet's recent matches and the odds just seem to be too favorable for him to my liking.

Nuria Parrizas-Diaz (-1.5 sets) to beat Leolia Jeanjean at 1.67 with Pinnacle

This looks like one of the bigger WTA mismatches in the first round, Jeanjean has no results at all at this level and there's every chance that she'll just error herself out. NPD has made a lot of progress recently and has plenty of experience with these match-ups.

Christian Garin to beat Tommy Paul at 1.80 with Unibet
Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Maxime Cressy at 1.42 with Pinnacle
David Goffin (-1.5 sets) to beat Jiri Lehecka at 1.78 with Unibet

Not much to be said for these one honestly, I think that the odds are just about worth it, but wouldn't go much below, particularly on Garin. Lehecka was awful last time out and Goffin has already beaten him in this season, while Cressy just shouldn't do this unless Basilashvili breaks mentally.

What do you think about zverev 3 0 against ofner? 

Also.. Wawrinka need to end in 3 or 4 against moutet.. If will be pushed in 5 i see moutet winning.  (Wawrinka is my only fav player from men)

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5 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

@StanimalShould happen, of course, but Zverev can lose focus for a set as always.

Also what do you think about Aliassime - 1,5 sets, khakhanov and gauff? 

I also like vekic odds, but her serve from quali make me stay away.  (26 double faults if i remember corectly) 

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Two singles and a double for me to kick things off. The first single is Halys to beat Isner and this is ultimately about these conditions not being ideal for Isner. Halys is a decent clay court player and he's at home and if Isner has to rely on tie-breaks things could get interesting. Second single is Pera to beat Teichmann and although I can understand the love for Teichmann, Pera is the kind of player that can beat almost anyone when her game is on song. I'd expect Teichmann to win, but Pera is the play at the prices for me. The double is Zapata Miralles and Sasnovich to win and is about taking on their opponents. Mmoh much prefers hard courts and Wang hasn't had a decent result on clay at this level for some time.

15pts Halys to beat Isner @ 2.70 Boyles

20pts Pera to beat Teichmann @ 3.40 365

10pts Zapata Miralles (vs. Mmoh) x Sasnovich (vs. Wang) @ 1.92 365

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9 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Well, what can I tell you? Those all look like matches in which the favorites should win, but I'm not great at picking those short odds, perhaps @neilovan has more data on that.

One stat I do think is important is how players do in the 1st 2 round of a tournament/s. Up to the end of the Madrid Open Isner had played 15 1st/2nd round matches on clay (since 2018). Won 12 lost 3 with a tie break record of 16W 5L. In the French he has only lost to Korda (in round 1 or 2). Played Krajanovic last year and beat him in straights. If Isner is winning 75% of the matches then his opponent should have odds of 1/0.25 or around 4 to make a bet worthwhile.

Auger-ALiasimme I am a little scared of. He lost 1st round (Nishioka 2020 and 1st round Seppi 2021). Not worth a bet in my opinion.

Gauf is playing a decent opponent. Her big problem is that Sakkari showed everyone how to beat her. Just keep pumping away at that forehand and the errors will flow. If Gauff sorts that stroke out, she will go up a level or two and be very dangerous. But her forehand is like Sabalenka's serve ... it's a real obvious weakness at elite level.

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10 hours ago, Stanimal said:

Also what do you think about Aliassime - 1,5 sets, khakhanov and gauff? 

I also like vekic odds, but her serve from quali make me stay away.  (26 double faults if i remember corectly) 

Khachanov has a very solid, if unspectacular record at French. Played 10 1/2/3 round matches (since 2018), never lost. So his game is solid enough to dominate the 30+ rankings, but not good enough to beat top 25 players. 7 of the 10 he has won in straight sets.

For Borges it is a big step up to go from Challenger level to major. Everything about your opponents is better!

I think the 14.5 to 10 for Khachanov to win in straight sets is a decent price.

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