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mark22

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  1. @neilovan you made this thread completely messed up with tournament not even started, with your @1.10 picks and even football picks? Yeah, those accumulators with favorites maybe passed like 5-10 years ago, but in recent years GS tournaments became very hard to predict as many suprises comes up in 1st rounds. Some players didn´t play for more than one month. Even at 5-10 pairs combo 1 ALWAYS defeats you. Option is only cashout if you are lucky to get most of matches through. Otherwise I think there is no bigger value in grand slam matches since odds drop very fast on good bets. This 2 weeks of new season went good for me, but I´ll start here very carefully because of the reasons I mentioned. Here are some picks. Harris should be to strong for Vukic, but he is in good form and I expect some close sets. Otte already played in AUS this year, while Tseng didn`t and has not muxh experience in mathes like this. Bagnis and Garin could go in 5 sets here, I think Bagnis could even win the match given the current form and Garin is known as ´´slow starter´´ on GS. Rune and Kwon had tough match on clay last season and I expect nothing different here. Rune had bad luck in facing Moutet twice in a row, Kwon is favourite by odds and form, but I just can´t see 3:0 win for any of them. GL. Harris, Lloyd To Win + Total Games Over 32.5 Otte, Oscar To Win + Total Sets Under 4.5 F.Bagnis vs C.Garin Total Games: Over 36.5 H.Rune vs S.Kwon Total Sets: Over 3.5
  2. I agree with you here, before match Brooksby: van de Zandschulp i looked at outrights, former was @19 to win tournament, Brooksby wasn˝t even on the list. Now I´m looking at the same table and Brooksby is 3.80 to win?! Sinner on example is 1st with 2.90. Crazy @carina007 I played on Cilic in last round, where odds were great to take. In 1st set against Paul he had many troubles and it could go either way. In 2nd he showed some better game, but Paul is poor server.. I expected maybe even easier win from Cilic, he makes stupid mistakes where he got the point already won, and this could cost him against better players. Now he is only @1.44, he should win but also over games are likely to happen here.
  3. Friiitz what a match again.. didn´t have balls to play him just because Zverev f.. me up few times, when he was big favorite and I was against him. HC line 4.5 seemed too low if you look at Zverev win odds - 1.15-1.20. In match against Monfils he looked very good, unfortonately I just missed MP from Zverev, but otherwise he hardly could play better. Now he´s 1.53 against Basilasvili, no value I think..
  4. This Indian Wells results are strange, I´ll rather wait for next weeks when indoor hard CH continues.. where we can find better value bets just one for today. Melzer - Tirante 1 @2.22 with Marathonbet Tirante won challenger in Ambato, where he beat Austrian too. Last week Melzer got revenge by easy win (6:4 6:2). Tirante had problems in 2:1 win against Seyboth Wild in 1st round here in Santiago and it looks like he dropped in form a little bit. This week they play on same courts, so this should be advantage for Melzer. In 1st round he won against Jarry in close match. In may he returned after 2 year break from tennis and now he shows again, how good player he is. Odds should be at least 1.75 on Melzer.
  5. Maaan, looks like you have too much time to stick in EVERY word I comment. I just commented Punter's pick of Azarenka:Pegula match, and at the end maybe my comments and alerts helped somebody to change the pick. Because my comment was BEFORE match and it was HELPFUL. Why do you even bother if I didn't say a word about you? Read it and go on.. I often place my bets literraly in last minute, because I just don't have enough time. So also my picks and comments often come late. But to analyse matches and picks is crucial for me to see where I did it wrong, exclude luck here. Sorry to like posts here 🤣 seemed like a good pick, I also like yours so I don't see any problem here.. Peace.
  6. Azarenka:Pegula 6:4 6:2 as you can see my doubts were on point obviously.. I comment only what I see by myself, Sasnovich was very far from winning the match, no need for you to "analyse" every point of the match. In 1st set Azarenka gifted her 2 or 3 points at 5:2, so she wouldn't even come to BP in that game. In 2nd set she gave up many chances again, so it's luck that she even covered HC. I don't know how she played against Kvitova, but it looks that even Svitolina was awful against Pegula.
  7. That is true, I also take bet on players that have high 2nd serve points won, and as I saw later.. this was second worse 2nd serve points won in last 50 matches for Sasnovich! Yeah it doesn´t mean much if you are close in every game but you lose it unfortunately.. after 1st set I didn´t have much hope to win bet, void at least. Saw some of Pegula-Svitolina highlights, Pegula really looked reliable.
  8. Took the bet on Sasnovich from you 2 guys and I have to comment now since I´m more in ATP and feeling about bet was good I watched first set. What Azarenka showed was pretty good and way different than you commented her previous match. Fortunatelly match ended with void bet, but it could easily be 6:2 6:3 and way from HC line.. what I also noticed like you mentioned, Sasnovich serve was very bad and she lost most of points because of it, in rallies she was even with Azarenka or sometimes even better. Both H2H matches with Pegula were close, but Pegula looks excellent from statistic side of all matches here.. well, I might be in that bet with you again good luck!
  9. Sinner - Krajinovic; Krajinovic +4 games HC @1.65 with Marathonbet Young Italian defends title from last year, but he didn´t convince me this time. He was behind in both sets against Duckworth, but managed to get close 2:0 win. His numbers on service games are not that high like when he´s in top form. Krajinovic had 2 great matches here, yesterday he lost set against Majchrzak, but still showed good performance in 3rd set. He had some very good results on hard indoor in last years and I think he has chances today to at least cover HC. Vesely - Laaksonen 1 @2.08 with WWin Both players got some big wins this week and probably winner of this match will take the title in Orleans. As in Sofia court is fast here and this is advantage for tall Czech. Yesterday he beat Gasquet, he serves many aces and ends points quickly. Laaksonen will not get many BP I suppose and for me he is not favorite. 2 years back they played in simillar match on CH in France and Vesely got an easy win. He can repeat this today if his performance stays on the same level-
  10. Majchrzak - Wolf over 22.5 games @1.78 with WWin I predict close match here. Majchrzak is often on my over picks and rarely dissapoints. He has good serve (10 aces in 1st round) and poor return game against players of same game plan. I don´t know Wolf´s game at all, but he had some good matches this summer against Tiafoe, Isner, Nakashima and I wouldn´t underestimate him, against Istomin he won 92% 1st serves. Gaston - Bemelmans; Bemelmans over 9.5 games @1.75 with WWin French is big favorite in this match with @1.30, he beat Kopriva who played only on clay for last 5 months. Also Gaston came here straight from clay and his game is optimal for clay courts, his record on hard is nothing special. I disagree with bookies, since Bemelmans played some good matches in last 2 years when he was underdog and he is better players than ranking shows at the moment. He served 12 aces against de Jong and if he will hold this level, Gaston will have troubles beating him.
  11. Don´t forget this is pre-grand slam tournament, where some players will save their power for US Open.. so 1st round is just guessing, you will see who means seriously after 2 or 3 matches. GIron has very low odds, if you are sure than take him with some HC. Second bet.. in my opinion this goes in over only if there will be 3 sets. Rinderknech is miles above Simon this year, if his serve will work Simon has no chances. Simon can only count on bad day form and many UE from Rinderknech, also thight sets are not very likely between that kinf of player profiles. Good luck.
  12. Challenger Lexington: Escobedo - King 2 @3.64 with Marathonbet Darian King made return after 1 year without tennis in February. He didn't have much success till this tournament, where he obviously found form with quality that he definetly has. He was already 106. on ATP rankings 4 years ago. Here he won against very good Cressy in last round, he was also big underdog in another match. While I expected much lower odds on him, this is a must try for me. Escobedo didn't show much this year, his last match against Sid Subervi was very average on his serve, King could use it by easier hold of his service games. Good luck.
  13. Period after Wimbledon is actually very sucessfull for me, but as I played mostly combos and some lower odds didn´t post here lately much. As I also see, most people post/comment just when there is GS, but don´t even know players outside top 100. Which is sad for serious bettors, since it´s easier to find some value as you are familiar from all tournaments from GS down to challengers. And as I learned in previous month, grand slams are no ´´safer´´ option to bet as they were like some years ago. Here is one tip for today. Zverev - Chardy; Chardy +4.5 games @2.04 with WWin Chardy has an excellent tournament here. He managed to win against Barrios, Karatsev and yesterday Broady, who has good season. Zverev had only 2BP against Basilashvili, but used them both to get close win. Chardy fired 16 aces per match, which will be tough even for Zverev if he doesn´t feel good on return. As we see from H2H matches, no match was easy for the German and I expect Chardy to cover HC line.
  14. this is true, well for now he somehow stays on some level. it's good to see we both won 👍
  15. I wouldn´t expect Viola feels at home on clay at all, but anyway I checked the data. Just not to be ´´smartass´´ and then be wrong at the end. As you can see below, Viola has better win ratio on hard (51%) than on clay (42%). Matches (122-119) > Time Span: Career; Surface: Hard; Level: All ATP, Qualifying, Challengers, CH Qualies Matches (106-144) > Time Span: Career; Surface: Clay; Level: All ATP, Qualifying, Challengers, CH Qualies As I watched his match also in Umag few years back, I can say he has bad defence, he relys on his strong serve mostly and ends up points after few shots. This is the only match caught in my eyes today, before I checked forum hehe Viola had some hard matches in last weeks, so I think he can keep it close, and line is pretty low. over 21.5 games @1.77 with WWin
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