French Open 2022

[Heisenberg68]

4 hours ago, Torque said:

I've got two singles, an acca and a couple of outrights ahead of today's play. One single is a favourite and that's Gasquet. The veteran Frenchman gave a good account last week in Geneva and should have too much for Harris, who hasn't really got started yet this season due to injury and who isn't a fan of the clay. The other single is a big dog at a nice price in the shape of Rodriguez Taverna. He lives on clay and hasn't played on anything else for a quite some time, he has some nice wins in qualifying here and he's facing an opponent in Fritz who hasn't played for nearly a month.

For the acca, I'm rolling up Cilic, Korda, Martinez and Trevisan which pays plus money. Cilic plays Balazs and looking at the Hungarian's recent form and fitness it's possible he's only turning up for the cheque; Korda has underwhelmed so far this clay swing but Millman could be the perfect opening opponent here as he's fairly limited on clay; Martinez is in poor form since he took the title in Santiago but so is his opponent Laaksonen and the Spaniard beat him here a few years back; and Trevisan is coming here after winning her maiden WTA title in Morocco which should mean she takes care of Dart without too much fuss.

On to the outrights and I'm backing Nadal and Tsitsipas on the Men's side. The Nadal bet is a risk due to uncertainties about his foot injury, but if he's able to manage it and not exert himself too much in the early rounds then he should be making the latter stages as usual. I don't think he's ever been this big a price to win this tournament and that's hard to resist. Tsitsipas looks like the player to side with in his half of the draw and his form coming here is good. There's question marks over his mentality, especially after the collapse in the final last year but he really should be able to go deep again.

 

45pts Gasquet to beat Harris @ 1.57 365

20pts Rodriguez Taverna to beat Fritz @ 7.00 Boyles

10pts Cilic (vs. Balazs) x Korda (vs. Millman) x Martinez (vs. Laaksonen) x Trevisan (vs. Dart) @ 2.06 365

10pts Nadal to win ATP French Open @ 6.49 Betfair Exchange

5pts Tsitsipas to win ATP French Open @ 6.88 Betfair Exchange

 

Totally agree for Gasquet . I will bet ?

Physically it's obviously complicated but he shows some nice things in the game. 
And this is Paris. 

[raduvlad1995]

29 minutes ago, Heisenberg68 said:

Despite all the bad things Benoit Paire can do, everyone knows he has talent. 
Unfortunately his lack of involvement has totally killed his career. 
I think he is motivated to win a match or two in Paris. 

The odds are very good for the first round. 

I d never bet on paire no matter what mate. Sure you re right he has some talent but the guy is a mental train wreck.

Edited May 23, 2022 by raduvlad1995

[four-leaf]

30 minutes ago, Heisenberg68 said:

Despite all the bad things Benoit Paire can do, everyone knows he has talent. 
Unfortunately his lack of involvement has totally killed his career. 
I think he is motivated to win a match or two in Paris. 

The odds are very good for the first round. 

I hesitate to take Benoit as always but I might give him some chances today if he looks fortunate enough to be motivated in-play..

[raduvlad1995]

yeah went with gasquet today also , if torque trusts him I'll trust him too. Still a bit scared of how his physique will hold up, but you can t bet anything else than him winning with the insane french crowd behind him in RG. Plus the odds are more than juicy.

[neilovan]

It seems that the woman's draw is slightly more predictable than the men's at the moment. Definitely set betting looks more straight forward in the WTA, and all matches are always 3 sets, which makes back testing more relevant.

Quite a few matchups that models rejected, that actually look good to me.

Samsonova v kovinic was odd, because Samsonova took Swiatek close (lost 5-7 in 3rd set recently). She is tough to beat and playing well.

It also didn't take the Trevisian v Dart match, but I think it was because Dart has hardly played on clay. I agree with @Torque and think Trevisian wins easily. Comes into the tournament having just won in Morocco (5 wins on the spin), and very good on clay, against an opponent that has not played on it much.

The Anismova v Osaka match is just priced out of the range but I think Osaka can get her bags packed. If you look at Anismova in the Madrid Open  (3 solid wins : Sabalenka , Martic, Azarenka),  Italian Open ( Bencic, Martincova, Collins), she is bang in form. Those are 6 very good opponents ... no freebees there. Osaka well beaten by Sorribes Tormo in Madrid, and withdrawn from Italian open. Hardly great prep.

Begu v Paolini. Paolini is struggling with her serve, and this is affecting the rest of her game and confidence. She drops a lot of serve games, and this makes it very difficult to win. In addition, Paolini has hardly played competitive clay court matches. Lost 1st round in  Madrid, withdrew? from Stuttgart, didn't play Italy, so totally not ready. It's just a see how it goes and take the 75k Euro's.

Will take two doubles here. Begu  and  Trevisian for 6 units, and Anismova and Samsonova  for 2 units.

 

I will take two longshots as singles today (small 1 unit bet each).

#1) Linda Noskova to beat Miss excuses (Radacanu). Noskova is a former girls winner at French, and won 4 qualifying rounds. Only 17 years old.

2) I like Seb Baez but he may just be out of gas. He is up against a tough opponent in Dusan Lajovic, and I think a surprise could be on the cards here, Lajovic had a solid Madrid open  winning 4/5.

Edited May 23, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

In these overcast conditions, taller and physically stronger players will dominate. The overhead conditions slow the ball down, and make it bounce lower. So a person hitting a two handed backhand finds the ball in the vertical hitting zone almost all the time.  Also, someone over reliant on a big serve finds what would be an 'ace' coming back to them. Very similar to when Nadal lost to Soderling.

I think Opelka will struggle in these conditions and am taking Krajinovic in match here (set up 2-1) at odds of 1.5

Edited May 23, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

I think Baez will definitely struggle in this weather as well. A stockier, physically bigger player like Lajovic will dominate him, and is def worth taking at 16 to 10 (score is 1-1 lajovic break point).

[raduvlad1995]

seems like it's gonna rain all day , anymore matches that will be played today ?

[neilovan]

36 minutes ago, raduvlad1995 said:

seems like it's gonna rain all day , anymore matches that will be played today ?

Nadal and Djokovic on Court PHILIPPE-CHATRIER

 

[DrO]

38 minutes ago, raduvlad1995 said:

seems like it's gonna rain all day , anymore matches that will be played today ?

Matches on open courts should re-start around 17.00 CET.

[neilovan]

Azarenka v Bogdan. I think Bogdan will implode in this 3rd set, after serving for the match in the second. Would be looking at Azarenko to win and under 34.5 games which is 9 to 10

[amity]

33 minutes ago, neilovan said:

Azarenka v Bogdan. I think Bogdan will implode in this 3rd set, after serving for the match in the second. Would be looking at Azarenko to win and under 34.5 games which is 9 to 10

very good predictions! shame I keep seeing them too late! ?

[neilovan]

 

7 minutes ago, amity said:

very good predictions! shame I keep seeing them too late! ?

Let's get the next one. I'm sitting at my comp all day, streaming two matches. 

The inplay stuff has been good. 

Azarenka, Krjanovic, Aliasimme, Vinolas all won.

Lajovic actually messed up a little because he had 3 break points for the 2nd set and then had to serve out to win it. He is now playing catch up serving behind. Just makes it tricky because a couple of bad points and it's goodbye set. Good grief, as I speak he drops his serve from 40-15 ? ,

Krejicova lost from 6-1 2-0. Not a bad pick, just unlucky that the injury flares up again. Could not bend her elbow properly to hit a forehand. Parry is really a weak opponent, yet wins 12 of 15 games, with no game. Radacanu would have quit ? 

Edited May 23, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

6 minutes ago, neilovan said:

 

Let's get the next one. I'm sitting at my comp all day, streaming two matches. 

The inplay stuff has been good. 

Azarenka, Krjanovic, Aliasimme, Vinolas all won.

Lajovic actually messed up a little because he had 3 break points for the 2nd set and then had to serve out to win it. He is now playing catch up serving behind. Just makes it tricky because a couple of bad points and it's goodbye set. Good grief, as I speak he drops his serve from 40-15 ? ,

Krejicova lost from 6-1 2-0. Not a bad pick, just unlucky that the injury flares up again. Could not bend her elbow properly to hit a forehand. Parry is really a weak opponent, yet wins 12 of 15 games, with no game. Radacanu would have quit ? 

I wouldn't go crazy but I still think Lajovic is gonna beat Baez. Worth a small 1.5 unit bet at odds of 4 to 1

[neilovan]

I don't think Nadal can beat Thopson 6-2 6-2 6-2 (or less). I think Thompson wins at least 3 games in 1 set, so the Nadal and over 24.5 games is the bet at odds of 1.9 . Again not going big but a 1.5 unit bet works.

Edited May 23, 2022 by neilovan

[amity]

Short odds I know but I pulled the trigger on Evans at 1/4 just before he broke for a second time. 1/5 now. Surprised he's not shorter considering he'll almost definitely be two sets up soon.

[neilovan]

15 minutes ago, amity said:

Short odds I know but I pulled the trigger on Evans at 1/4 just before he broke for a second time. 1/5 now. Surprised he's not shorter considering he'll almost definitely be two sets up soon.

i like it, even now evans is 1.25

[neilovan]

Wawrinka is done against Moutet. Invested too much energy and now loses a close one. No way he can come back and win the last 2. 1..33 great odds on Moutet.

[CzechPunter]

Yeah, Wawrinka will probably run out of gas. Having a nightmare myself, still disgusted by Karatsev's loss yesterday!

[Torque]

9 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Yeah, Wawrinka will probably run out of gas. Having a nightmare myself, still disgusted by Karatsev's loss yesterday!

He might but do I want to trust Moutet... No I think I'll pass 

[neilovan]

1 minute ago, Torque said:

He might but do I want to trust Moutet... No I think I'll pass 

Moutet just looks as fresh as a daisy, and he has the crowd on his side.

[Torque]

6 minutes ago, neilovan said:

Moutet just looks as fresh as a daisy, and he has the crowd on his side.

He does. But he's not trustable IMO

[neilovan]

1 hour ago, neilovan said:

I don't think Nadal can beat Thopson 6-2 6-2 6-2 (or less). I think Thompson wins at least 3 games in 1 set, so the Nadal and over 24.5 games is the bet at odds of 1.9 . Again not going big but a 1.5 unit bet works.

Good grief, Thompson looked like an ice skater. He was actually 2-2 in the 3rd set and played two truly awful games on his serve.  Didn't lose a lot, but I do prefer winning?

Edited May 23, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

Noskova gonna beat Radacanu. That kid can really hit the ball, and doesn't look 17 years old.

[Torque]

Martinez v Laaksonen starts soon and I've realised I've made a mistake in my preview. I said Martinez had beaten Laaksonen previously here but that's wrong - it's the other way around. I'll be sticking with the pick but if anyone has followed it might be best to trade out, particularly as it looks like the conditions are going to favour Laaksonen.

[neilovan]

12 minutes ago, Torque said:

Martinez v Laaksonen starts soon and I've realised I've made a mistake in my preview. I said Martinez had beaten Laaksonen previously here but that's wrong - it's the other way around. I'll be sticking with the pick but if anyone has followed it might be best to trade out, particularly as it looks like the conditions are going to favour Laaksonen.

Lol, no worries. I made an unspecified programming enhancement on Brooksby yesterday. I checked it today and he was a no select, but I'll write it off as a 'development' expense.

No doubt Noskova is gonna win this match. She just is hitting it through Radacanu. Even her misses are net cords or super close. She already looks physically strong, and her backhand is a thing of beauty. 

Edited May 23, 2022 by neilovan

[Torque]

Sometimes you see stats in matches that are almost unbelievable. Kecmanovic looks like he's cruising at two sets up against Etcheverry, but it was looking like it was going to be one set each when Etcheverry served for the second set and the reason it nearly went level was Kecmanovic saving 0 of 3 break points during that set whilst Etcheverry saved 8 out of 12. Add that to Kecmanovic failing to save the only break point he faced in the first set when Etcheverry saved 10 out of 13 and those are some remarkable numbers.

Edited May 23, 2022 by Torque

[Torque]

Kecmanovic misses five break points to start the third. Not sure I've ever seen this many break points in an ATP match and it isn't even over yet.

[Torque]

Kecmanovic wins. Just the 31 break points created in three sets 

[neilovan]

1 hour ago, neilovan said:

Lol, no worries. I made an unspecified programming enhancement on Brooksby yesterday. I checked it today and he was a no select, but I'll write it off as a 'development' expense.

No doubt Noskova is gonna win this match. She just is hitting it through Radacanu. Even her misses are net cords or super close. She already looks physically strong, and her backhand is a thing of beauty. 

Noskova just gave the match away. Just played some really weird tennis, missing simple 2nd serve returns at a crucial time. Looked tired by the middle of the 3rd set.

What am I gonna do other than stay the course, but Konteveit shows up again and plays like a zombie. This is the 5th best player in the world and she can't hit a ball, two tournaments in a row ? So, two bad day's in a row. Just gonna bet in play tomorrow.

I think my model need's to adjust to give a slightly different weighting to more recent games. I hate programming in python ... worse than a trip to the dentist, but something needs adjusting!

Just need Begu to win for a small profit but I do expect better days.  Somewhat annoying to get to watch Djokovic destroy some no hoper when there are better matches on TV. Surely the Harris v Gasquet game would be a better watch?

 

 

Edited May 23, 2022 by neilovan