French Open 2022

[neilovan]

Is Laaksonen worth a bet at this point . 3.33 to 1 and looking like he will level it at a set a piece ?

[Torque]

Laaksonen a break up now in the 3rd. Martinez did a Kecmanovic in set 2 - had ten break point chances and Laaksonen saved them all; had one break point to save himself and didn't do it. 

[neilovan]

9 minutes ago, Torque said:

Laaksonen a break up now in the 3rd. Martinez did a Kecmanovic in set 2 - had ten break point chances and Laaksonen saved them all; had one break point to save himself and didn't do it. 

Rain delay is brutal. Laaksonen on a roll and stopped. Begu on a roll and stopped. Very annoying.

[Foo_Fighter]

Holger Noedskov Rune to beat Denis Shapovalov at 2.2 with bet365

Emil Ruusuvuori to beat Ugo Humbert at 1.66 with bet365

Elise Mertens to beat Mari Bouzkova at 1.9 with bet365

Rune aspires to become an established force on clay, and I think that he proceeds slowly and methodically in the right direction. He's a young guy with plenty of ambition. Sure, someone may argue that he's still mentally fragile, but so is his opponent. As far as the game is concerned, I expect Rune to expose and exploit Shapovalov's bh which remains unreliable and weak after so many years; I believe his game is ideal only for grass.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Ruusuvuori and Humbert were considered as hot prospects for the future a few years ago, when they were dominant forces in the ATP Challenger Tour. Both have failed to live up to the expectations of the global tennis community so far. I think the Frenchman thrives on a very specific type of hardcourt (Tokyo Olympics). His game seems to be inadequate, especially on clay. Ruusuvuori possesses more firepower and builds the point better than Ugo on slow surfaces... 

------------------------------------------------------------------

I cannot understand why Mertens isn't a clear favorite against Bouzkova to be honest. Personally I evaluate her as a much better player than Mari, on all aspects of the game (serve, fh, bh, retrieving skills, creating angles, footwork etc).

 

Good luck.

Edited May 24, 2022 by Foo_Fighter

[Torque]

I'm not sure Mertens is completely fit @Foo_Fighter I'm sure I read something somewhere although I can't remember where.

[raduvlad1995]

seems like it will also rain today, just after today , the weather seems to calm down

[neilovan]

Only 3 low priced matches today;

5/24/2022	de Minaur v H Gaston							A de Minaur		0.16
5/24/2022	Collins v Tomova							Collins		0.12
5/24/2022	Pegula v Q Wang							Pegula, Jessica		0.2

Collins is very good on clay and I expect her to win easily. I would be going for the Collins win and under 18.5 games which is even money on bet365. I will also take in form Claire Lui to win against Zidansek and take these two as a double (2.0*1.8) -1 = 2.6 to 1.

In another upset I think Mayer Sherif beats Marta Kostyuk. Kostyuk all over the place, inconsistent, with the Ukrainian war occupying her mind at the moment.

Looking at how Wang has been beaten on clay, the serve is definitely weak. Will also take Pegula -5 handicap.

 

 

Edited May 24, 2022 by neilovan

[Torque]

Play about to start so will have to be brief. After Nadal and Djokovic got good wins yesterday, Alcaraz has drifted and so I'm now going to back him. Tsitsipas has also drifted so I'm going to put a bit more on him. There's only one match I like which is Garcia to beat Townsend. She hasn't played since Miami but tends to come alive here, so I think she's worth taking a risk on. Finally I'm taking one short odds treble of Sonego, Rublev and Carreno-Busta. Not much to say about that except they should all get the job done, maybe not in straight sets but I'll be surprised if they don't all win.

 

15pts Alcaraz to win ATP French Open @ 3.94 Betfair Exchange

10pts Tsitsipas to win ATP French Open @ 7.08 Betfair Exchange

15pts Garcia to beat Townsend @ 2.50 365

10pts Sonego (vs. Gojowczyk) x Rublev (vs. Kwon) x Carreno-Busta (vs. Simon) @ 1.25 365

[neilovan]

50 minutes ago, Torque said:

Play about to start so will have to be brief. After Nadal and Djokovic got good wins yesterday, Alcaraz has drifted and so I'm now going to back him. Tsitsipas has also drifted so I'm going to put a bit more on him. There's only one match I like which is Garcia to beat Townsend. She hasn't played since Miami but tends to come alive here, so I think she's worth taking a risk on. Finally I'm taking one short odds treble of Sonego, Rublev and Carreno-Busta. Not much to say about that except they should all get the job done, maybe not in straight sets but I'll be surprised if they don't all win.

 

15pts Alcaraz to win ATP French Open @ 3.94 Betfair Exchange

10pts Tsitsipas to win ATP French Open @ 7.08 Betfair Exchange

15pts Garcia to beat Townsend @ 2.50 365

10pts Sonego (vs. Gojowczyk) x Rublev (vs. Kwon) x Carreno-Busta (vs. Simon) @ 1.25 365

I like the Garcia pick. Gotta factor in the crowd which will give her a lift and hopefully get her over the line.

[raduvlad1995]

man jo willy's retirement hit hard, loved this guy's game and personality. He ll be missed just like delpo.

[neilovan]

SO, eventually De Minaur gets on top of Gaston. Now lead 4-0 4th set but is down 2-1 in sets. It seems that Gaston has run outta juice. De minaur worth a bet at 1.46

Clair Lui blew up for 2nd week in a row. Lost a final last week 6-1 6-2 and today 6-2 6-2. I thought she had a semi-decent chance here.

Edited May 24, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

1 hour ago, neilovan said:

SO, eventually De Minaur gets on top of Gaston. Now lead 4-0 4th set but is down 2-1 in sets. It seems that Gaston has run outta juice. De minaur worth a bet at 1.46

Clair Lui blew up for 2nd week in a row. Lost a final last week 6-1 6-2 and today 6-2 6-2. I thought she had a semi-decent chance here.

Lol, on a roll and blows a 3-0 5th set lead, playing like a dunce. Tactics just so wrong. So reactive, playing not to lose instead of going for the win. I think the heavy conditions do play a part, especially for a player who is slight in stature. Very strange match with 21 serve breaks, which really shows how useless they both were.  If either player serves and plays half decently behind the serve they wipe the floor with the opponent. 

I keep expecting de Minaur to improve, to step up to the next level, but mentally he needs a reboot.

Edited May 24, 2022 by neilovan

[Robinnho]

13 minutes ago, neilovan said:

Lol, on a roll and blows a 3-0 5th set lead, playing like a dunce. Tactics just so wrong. So reactive, playing not to lose instead of going for the win. I think the heavy conditions do play a part, especially for a player who is slight in stature. Very strange match with 21 serve breaks, which really shows how useless they both were.  If either player serves and plays half decently behind the serve they wipe the floor with the opponent. 

I keep expecting de Minaur to improve, to step up to the next level, but mentally he needs a reboot.

 

1 hour ago, neilovan said:

SO, eventually De Minaur gets on top of Gaston. Now lead 4-0 4th set but is down 2-1 in sets. It seems that Gaston has run outta juice. De minaur worth a bet at 1.46

Clair Lui blew up for 2nd week in a row. Lost a final last week 6-1 6-2 and today 6-2 6-2. I thought she had a semi-decent chance here.

 

I lost too...................hope for a better day tomorrow!

Edited May 24, 2022 by Robinnho

[neilovan]

Just now, Robinnho said:

 

 

I lost too...................hope for a better day tomorrow!

It's annoying, but the whole thing is not a sprint. It is one endless bet, where if you apply an edge, over time you will be in profit. Very much like poker. In the short term anything can happen.

I probably won't post tomorrow or Thurs. Off to the USA for 6 weeks vacation. Should be good but 16 hours in cattle class row 48 could be brutal. Just need a huge person next to me and a screaming baby to top it off ?

[Robinnho]

46 minutes ago, neilovan said:

It's annoying, but the whole thing is not a sprint. It is one endless bet, where if you apply an edge, over time you will be in profit. Very much like poker. In the short term anything can happen.

I probably won't post tomorrow or Thurs. Off to the USA for 6 weeks vacation. Should be good but 16 hours in cattle class row 48 could be brutal. Just need a huge person next to me and a screaming baby to top it off ?

Yes, agree.  Sprint? Never, it's a Marathon!

Have a nice vacation.

[Foo_Fighter]

On 5/23/2022 at 11:40 PM, Foo_Fighter said:

Holger Noedskov Rune to beat Denis Shapovalov at 2.2 with bet365

Emil Ruusuvuori to beat Ugo Humbert at 1.66 with bet365

Elise Mertens to beat Mari Bouzkova at 1.9 with bet365

Rune aspires to become an established force on clay, and I think that he proceeds slowly and methodically in the right direction. He's a young guy with plenty of ambition. Sure, someone may argue that he's still mentally fragile, but so is his opponent. As far as the game is concerned, I expect Rune to expose and eploit Shapovalov's bh which remains unreliable and weak after so many years; I believe his game is ideal only for grass.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Ruusuvuori and Humbert were considered as hot prospects for the future a few years ago, when they were dominant forces in the ATP Challenger Tour. Both have failed to live up to the expectations of the global tennis community so far. I think the Frenchman thrives on a very specific type of hardcourt (Tokyo Olympics). His game seems to be inadequate, especially on clay. Ruusuvuori possesses more firepower and builds the point better than Ugo on slow surfaces... 

------------------------------------------------------------------

I cannot understand why Mertens isn't a clear favorite against Bouzkova to be honest. Personally I evaluate her as a much better player than Mari, on all aspects of the game (serve, fh, bh, retrieving skills, creating angles, footwork etc).

 

Good luck.

Rune ✅

Ruusuvuori ✅

Mertens (walkover) ☑️

[CzechPunter]

Sorana Cirstea to beat Sloane Stephens at 1.70 with Pinnacle

Cirstea was quite shaky against Maria, but she should get her act together and Stephens would've been out were it not for Niemeier's injury. She can be soooo bad at times these days that I simply can't trust her against a proven opponent that has enough power to stay with her in rallies.

Angelique Kerber (-1.5 sets) to beat Elsa Jacquemot at 1.83 with Unibet

Yes, the dreaded set handicap again for me, as I think that Jacquemot will get thoroughly out-classed here. She was pretty average against Watson, who missed a million chances, while Kerber is going through some sort of a renaissance in recent weeks, having won a title going into this and producing a stunning fightback in round one.

[Torque]

On 5/24/2022 at 9:47 AM, Torque said:

15pts Alcaraz to win ATP French Open @ 3.94 Betfair Exchange

10pts Tsitsipas to win ATP French Open @ 7.08 Betfair Exchange

15pts Garcia to beat Townsend @ 2.50 365

10pts Sonego (vs. Gojowczyk) x Rublev (vs. Kwon) x Carreno-Busta (vs. Simon) @ 1.25 365

Seriously frustrating day today, with a few of the big favourites struggling. Tsitsipas remains in the tournament, but playing five sets isn't going to do him any favours going forward. Then Carreno-Busta 'bustas' the short price acca with what can only be described as a woeful performance. All the talk is about how well Simon played, and whilst he certainly played well in the first two sets, mainly by keeping unforced errors low, he had a lot of help from Carreno-Busta who hit twice as many unforced errors in those first two sets compared to Simon. On top of that, in the second set he twice went a break ahead and then got broken straight back, and then saw Simon serve out the set from 0-40. He did well to force a final set, which was mainly achieved by levelling up the winners to unforced errors ratio.

When Carreno-Busta finally got ahead at the start of the fifth set and then got through a tough service game for a 4-2 lead, it looked like he'd got out of jail and those first two sloppy sets weren't going to cost him, but then his game fell apart. First he practically donated Simon a hold for 4-3 when he should have concentrated on trying to get what would likely have been a decisive double-break advantage, and then he got broken in the next game from 40-15 as the unforced errors from the start of the match returned. Those unforced errors continued in the next game as Simon went 5-4 ahead and it really wasn't surprising when he buckled serving to stay in the match, particularly with a hostile crowd on his back. You could see he was going to double-fault to give Simon match point as soon as his ball toss went up at an angle instead of straight, and it was in keeping with the match that another unforced error saw Simon take the match. If the words of Sloane Stephens are true and you never lose, only win or learn, then I've now learnt for certain that Carreno-Busta can't be trusted to close out a match, after a few other occasions this season where he's failed to get over the line. The crowd were definitely over the top, but even so he should never have lost that match and he's only got himself to blame really.

Now that I've got that off my chest, it's time to sum up the other bets I've placed that have settled. Gasquet and Garcia both won in straight sets, but my second acca of the tournament was blown by Martinez who saw a slew of break points come and go against Laaksonen at the same time as failing to save many of the ones he faced. Like Carreno-Busta, he failed to perform at the key moments and so deserved to lose.

Edited May 25, 2022 by Torque

[Torque]

.

Edited May 25, 2022 by Torque
double post

[raduvlad1995]

6 hours ago, Torque said:

Seriously frustrating day today, with a few of the big favourites struggling. Tsitsipas remains in the tournament, but playing five sets isn't going to do him any favours going forward. Then Carreno-Busta 'bustas' the short price acca with what can only be described as a woeful performance. All the talk is about how well Simon played, and whilst he certainly played well in the first two sets, mainly by keeping unforced errors low, he had a lot of help from Carreno-Busta who hit twice as many unforced errors in those first two sets compared to Simon. On top of that, in the second set he twice went a break ahead and then got broken straight back, and then saw Simon serve out the set from 0-40. He did well to force a final set, which was mainly achieved by levelling up the winners to unforced errors ratio.

When Carreno-Busta finally got ahead at the start of the fifth set and then got through a tough service game for a 4-2 lead, it looked like he'd got out of jail and those first two sloppy sets weren't going to cost him, but then his game fell apart. First he practically donated Simon a hold for 4-3 when he should have concentrated on trying to get what would likely have been a decisive double-break advantage, and then he got broken in the next game from 40-15 as the unforced errors from the start of the match returned. Those unforced errors continued in the next game as Simon went 5-4 ahead and it really wasn't surprising when he buckled serving to stay in the match, particularly with a hostile crowd on his back. You could see he was going to double-fault to give Simon match point as soon as his ball toss went up at an angle instead of straight, and it was in keeping with the match that another unforced error saw Simon take the match. If the words of Sloane Stephens are true and you never lose, only win or learn, then I've now learnt for certain that Carreno-Busta can't be trusted to close out a match, after a few other occasions this season where he's failed to get over the line. The crowd were definitely over the top, but even so he should never have lost that match and he's only got himself to blame really.

Now that I've got that off my chest, it's time to sum up the other bets I've placed that have settled. Gasquet and Garcia both won in straight sets, but my first acca of the tournament was blown by Martinez who saw a slew of break points come and go against Laaksonen at the same time as failing to save many of the ones he faced. Like Carreno-Busta, he failed to perform at the key moments and so deserved to lose.

I mean busta has been garbage for prety much the whole year, the guy is past his best . Weird since he's like 30 and in great physical shape.

[neilovan]

10 hours ago, Robinnho said:

Yes, agree.  Sprint? Never, it's a Marathon!

Have a nice vacation.

Thanks, I'm ready and packed.

Hopefully the rest of the French is very profitable for everyone ?

[raduvlad1995]

took zapata and gasquet to take atleast a set each. Fritz is on the comeback and struggled mightly against a worse player than zapata in the first round and gasquet just seem extremely underrated in his korda matchup.

[neilovan]

13 minutes ago, raduvlad1995 said:

I mean busta has been garbage for prety much the whole year, the guy is past his best . Weird since he's like 30 and in great physical shape.

I think there are numerous factors determining tennis outcomes. One of them is 'how many hard miles are on the clock' . Busta is a  grinder. He can't overpower opponents, and doing this, on clay is just hard work. And he has been doing it since he was 14 or less, so the body has taken a pounding. Even a strong guy like Wayne Rooney was absolutely cooked at 35 (probably closer to 32), simply because he had been pounding himself at a very high physical level for at least 15 years.

Also, the travel and the whole year on the road just takes it's toll. Eventually a player is thinking, I've got $12 million in the bank, enough of this stuff.

 

[raduvlad1995]

19 minutes ago, neilovan said:

I think there are numerous factors determining tennis outcomes. One of them is 'how many hard miles are on the clock' . Busta is a  grinder. He can't overpower opponents, and doing this, on clay is just hard work. And he has been doing it since he was 14 or less, so the body has taken a pounding. Even a strong guy like Wayne Rooney was absolutely cooked at 35 (probably closer to 32), simply because he had been pounding himself at a very high physical level for at least 15 years.

Also, the travel and the whole year on the road just takes it's toll. Eventually a player is thinking, I've got $12 million in the bank, enough of this stuff.

 

that s probably very true, just weird seeing someone who even last year was very consistent be so wildly inconsistent so sudden without seeing any physical decline.

[Torque]

55 minutes ago, neilovan said:

I think there are numerous factors determining tennis outcomes. One of them is 'how many hard miles are on the clock' . Busta is a  grinder. He can't overpower opponents, and doing this, on clay is just hard work. And he has been doing it since he was 14 or less, so the body has taken a pounding. Even a strong guy like Wayne Rooney was absolutely cooked at 35 (probably closer to 32), simply because he had been pounding himself at a very high physical level for at least 15 years.

Also, the travel and the whole year on the road just takes it's toll. Eventually a player is thinking, I've got $12 million in the bank, enough of this stuff.

 

Agree with that, but the same applies to Simon and he has another 7 years of miles on the clock.

Edited May 25, 2022 by Torque

[Torque]

On to today then and once again time is short. I'm backing three ladies and also adding to my outright positions on the exchanges. First of all I'm taking a punt on Jacquemot to get the better of Kerber. This is one of my favourite spots, where a young player with potential takes on a fading older player, which Kerber is despite her run of good form. She's played a lot of tennis over the last week or so, clay is not her favourite surface and Jacquemot is a junior Roland Garros winner and so enjoys the surface. Having said all that, if Kerber is to win then hopefully it'll be in straight sets @CzechPunter. Next I'll back Haddad Maia to beat Kanepi. The Brazilian could be an awkward opponent for Kanepi given her liking for the surface and lefty angles, plus some recent good form. Kanepi has become known as a Slam giant-killer in recent years, but Haddad Maia is no giant and that could work in her favour. For the final pick I'm siding with a favourite and that's Bencic. Her opponent Andreescu looked pretty shaky at times in the last round and I'm not convinced by her on clay, where I think she struggles with the movement required on the surface. Bencic is much more comfortable in these conditions and I think that makes her a fair favourite to advance to the next round.

From an outright perspective, I want to continue opposing Djokovic who I think is too short considering his struggles over three set matches earlier in the season. It took him some time to get back up to speed in the shorter format and if that's also the case over best-of-five sets then he could be vulnerable at some point in this tournament. It's fine as long as he contines to win in three or maybe four sets, but he faded so badly in deciding third sets against Davidovich Fokina and Rublev in the weeks before the French I just wonder how he'll do if taken the distance here. If Djokovic does falter then most likely it'll be the next three in the betting that take the title so that's who I'll be backing.

 

20pts Jacquemot to beat Kerber @ 4.00 365

35pts Haddad Maia to beat Kanepi @ 2.50 365

35pts Bencic to beat Andreescu @ 1.72 365

35pts Alcaraz to win ATP French Open @ 3.94

20pts Nadal to win ATP French Open @ 5.61

10pts Tsitsipas to win ATP French Open @ 7.08

Edited May 25, 2022 by Torque

[neilovan]

I have time now so was doing some checking,

3 matches just starting now

5/25/2022	Azarenka v Petkovic							Azarenka		0.3
5/25/2022	Isner v Barrere							Isner		0.25
5/25/2022	Khachanov v Dellien							Khachanov, Karen		0.44

 

Will take all 3 as a treble.

[neilovan]

5/25/2022	Schwartzman v Munar							Schwartzman		0.33
5/25/2022	Gauff v van Uytvanck							Gauff, Cori		0.14
5/26/2022	Ruud v Ruusuvouri							Ruud		0.14
5/26/2022	Kudermetova v Krunic							Kudermetova		0.3
5/26/2022	Collins v Rogers							Collins		0.36
5/26/2022	Rybakina v Volynets							Rybakina		0.22

 

Other matches and for thurs as well.

[neilovan]

56 minutes ago, Torque said:

On to today then and once again time is short. I'm backing three ladies and also adding to my outright positions on the exchanges. First of all I'm taking a punt on Jacquemot to get the better of Kerber. This is one of my favourite spots, where a young player with potential takes on a fading older player, which Kerber is despite her run of good form. She's played a lot of tennis over the last week or so, clay is not her favourite surface and Jacquemot is a junior Roland Garros winner and so enjoys the surface. Having said all that, if Kerber is to win then hopefully it'll be in straight sets @CzechPunter. Next I'll back Haddad Maia to beat Kanepi. The Brazilian could be an awkward opponent for Kanepi given her liking for the surface and lefty angles, plus some recent good form. Kanepi has become known as a Slam giant-killer in recent years, but Haddad Maia is no giant and that could work in her favour. For the final pick I'm siding with a favourite and that's Bencic. Her opponent Andreescu looked pretty shaky at times in the last round and I'm not convinced by her on clay, where I think she struggles with the movement required on the surface. Bencic is much more comfortable in these conditions and I think that makes her a fair favourite to advance to the next round.

From an outright perspective, I want to continue opposing Djokovic who I think is too short considering his struggles over three set matches earlier in the season. It took him some time to get back up to speed in the shorter format and if that's also the case over best-of-five sets then he could be vulnerable at some point in this tournament. It's fine as long as he contines to win in three or maybe four sets, but he faded so badly in deciding third sets against Davidovich Fokina and Rublev in the weeks before the French I just wonder how he'll do if taken the distance here. If Djokovic does falter then most likely it'll be the next three in the betting that take the title so that's who I'll be backing.

 

20pts Jacquemot to beat Kerber @ 4.00 365

35pts Haddad Maia to beat Kanepi @ 2.50 365

35pts Bencic to beat Andreescu @ 1.72 365

35pts Alcaraz to win ATP French Open @ 3.94

20pts Nadal to win ATP French Open @ 5.61

10pts Tsitsipas to win ATP French Open @ 7.08

Kerber was pretty lucky in the last round. Played badly, and I think faced two match points. Looks old and tired to me.

[Torque]

1 hour ago, neilovan said:

Kerber was pretty lucky in the last round. Played badly, and I think faced two match points. Looks old and tired to me.

She's doing pretty well so far - unfortunately for me. Still, it's not over yet.