Forums
-
Products & Feedback
-
- 7.8k
- posts
-
-
Betting Competitions
-
- 8.9k
- posts
-
- 31.6k
- posts
-
- 161.9k
- posts
-
- 7.3k
- posts
-
-
Gaming
-
- 345k
- posts
-
-
Racing
-
- 502.7k
- posts
- SPEED RATINGS
- By MCLARKE,
-
- 782
- posts
-
-
Sports
-
- 38.8k
- posts
-
- 6.7k
- posts
-
- 6k
- posts
- Q School 2024
- By Fader,
-
- 7.9k
- posts
-
- 653
- posts
-
- 2.4k
- posts
- Fury vs Usyk
- By Fader,
-
- 9.9k
- posts
-
- 4.1k
- posts
-
- 5.1k
- posts
-
- 3k
- posts
-
- 1.3k
- posts
-
- 2k
- posts
-
- 1.5k
- posts
-
- 115
- posts
-
- 784
- posts
-
- 11
- posts
- GAA Football
- By Xtc12,
-
- 26
- posts
-
- 110.5k
- posts
-
-
UK & Ireland Football Forums
-
- 29.6k
- posts
-
- 22.6k
- posts
-
- 2.8k
- posts
-
- 13.5k
- posts
-
- 1.2k
- posts
-
- 551
- posts
-
- 1.4k
- posts
-
- 456
- posts
-
-
European Football Forums
-
- 26.6k
- posts
-
- 15.1k
- posts
-
- 146
- posts
-
- 5.9k
- posts
-
- 6.4k
- posts
-
- 7.3k
- posts
-
- 7.2k
- posts
-
- 1.4k
- posts
-
- 747
- posts
-
- 1.3k
- posts
-
- 670
- posts
-
- 1.1k
- posts
-
- 33.5k
- posts
-
-
International Football Forums
-
- 7.2k
- posts
-
- 7.9k
- posts
-
- 268
- posts
-
- 647
- posts
-
- 649
- posts
-
- 20.3k
- posts
-
-
Scandinavia Football Forums
-
- 968
- posts
-
- 256
- posts
-
- 285
- posts
-
- 137
- posts
-
- 47
- posts
-
-
Africa & Middle East Football Forums
-
- 267
- posts
-
- 13.9k
- posts
-
-
North & South American Football Forums
-
- 1.2k
- posts
-
- 2.8k
- posts
-
- 629
- posts
-
- 282
- posts
-
- 4k
- posts
-
- 730
- posts
-
-
Asian & Australian Football Forums
-
- 1.7k
- posts
-
- 141
- posts
-
- 384
- posts
- Japan J1 2022
- By Mrsha,
-
- 141
- posts
-
- 366
- posts
-
-
Women's Football Forums
-
- 43
- posts
-
- 314
- posts
-
-
Personal Quests
-
- 125.9k
- posts
-
- 250.3k
- posts
-
-
Chat Section
-
- 507
- posts
-
-
Popular Contributors
-
Forum Statistics
127k
Total Topics2.4m
Total Posts -
Posts
-
Hat Toss 16.38 Leicester 3/1 bet 365
-
On the volume of races I am analysing any AE above 1.02 is fairly significant. The results I have highlighted are all logical (for instance horses reach their peak at age 5).
I suspect horses with an odd number of letters will produce an AE of approximately 1.
The day of the week might actually produce interesting results as Saturday tends to be the better class races !
There is no strategy yet, I'm including a few other angles such as the going difference and distance difference. The next stage will be to take the strongest 3 or 4 factors and combine them into a system which will then be tested on the test year data.
The number of runs is actually one of the criteria. The next run is not profitable but runs 2 to 8 are.
I have not included the rating at this stage, there could well be several horses in the same race. That happens with my AW system at the moment but I pick the horse that is in the ideal odds range.
The same horse in theory could be selected 8 times if it achieves a rating of 65+ 8 times in a row. Again I will analyse these results, they could be a top bet !
I'm still encouraged even though it's taking me longer than I thought, fortunately my shares have turned a corner so I've been able to concentrate on the racing.
-
Sea Prince 14:15 Southwell (12/1 Skybet 5 places). Solid front runner, likes the track, goes well fresh and is looking well handicapped off 112 (been as high as 122). Can't see why he shouldn't go well.
0.5pts e/w 12/1 Skybet 5 places.
P/L: -4pts.
- Nigwilliam and MCLARKE
- 2
-
23 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
I have now split AW from turf and the turf fgures are a lot more encouraging.
The top 23% of all runners (those with a speed figure of 65 or above) have produced an AE over the next 9 runs.
Some of the initial conclusions from the data are :-
Small fields in the qualifying race poor results with an AE of 0.99 for fields of 7 or less.
The top qualifying course is Ripon with an AE of 1.14.
Class 1 races produce an AE of 1.05.
5 year olds produce the best returns with an AE of 1.05.
Non handicaps have an AE of 1.06.
Horses with forecast odds less than 11/8 have an AE of 0.94.
The first run produces an AE of 0.999.
I totally get that the work you’re doing is moving you forward in the pursuit of refining your process and being able to make a profit by applying your speed figures but when I read a breakdown like that I can’t help thinking that some of the results might be no more meaningful than saying horses with an odd number of letters in their name have a positive AE or those running on a Wednesday. I suppose it’s a matter of evaluating the meaningful from the random (I see similar things in the goalscorer data when I break it down enough).
I also can’t quite follow what the strategy is that would give the results in question. Backing all runners with a speed figure of 65 or above next time out or for their next 9 runs? Backing more than one runner in some races or just the highest rated?
-
1900 Wolves Candy Warhol win 16/1 @ hills
-