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Posts
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23 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
I have now split AW from turf and the turf fgures are a lot more encouraging.
The top 23% of all runners (those with a speed figure of 65 or above) have produced an AE over the next 9 runs.
Some of the initial conclusions from the data are :-
Small fields in the qualifying race poor results with an AE of 0.99 for fields of 7 or less.
The top qualifying course is Ripon with an AE of 1.14.
Class 1 races produce an AE of 1.05.
5 year olds produce the best returns with an AE of 1.05.
Non handicaps have an AE of 1.06.
Horses with forecast odds less than 11/8 have an AE of 0.94.
The first run produces an AE of 0.999.
I totally get that the work you’re doing is moving you forward in the pursuit of refining your process and being able to make a profit by applying your speed figures but when I read a breakdown like that I can’t help thinking that some of the results might be no more meaningful than saying horses with an odd number of letters in their name have a positive AE or those running on a Wednesday. I suppose it’s a matter of evaluating the meaningful from the random (I see similar things in the goalscorer data when I break it down enough).
I also can’t quite follow what the strategy is that would give the results in question. Backing all runners with a speed figure of 65 or above next time out or for their next 9 runs? Backing more than one runner in some races or just the highest rated?
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