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Posts
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1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:
You are right, I used to use ROI as my measure but the big odds winners often led me down the wrong path, AE is a much more realistic measure, especially using BSP as in effect there is no bookmakers margin to worry about.
So a quick look at my main rugby league data gives the following figures.
Backing every selection ("bet" or "no bet") has an AE of 1.03 with an ROI of 4.16%
Backing just the "bet" selections has an AE of 1.13 with an ROI of 14.68%
The "no bet" selections numbers are AE 0.91 and ROI of -7.33%
That would support the notion that the selection criteria adds value and the fact that the AE is slightly less than the ROI suggests there's been a degree of good fortune in the results so far. Given that the average odds are 2.45 and the biggest price was 4 it's unlikely that the AE and ROI will differ by too much.
I suppose it would be pretty easy to add AE as an ongoing measure to my player data and, while it probably won't differ much from the ROI, it gives me an idea as to whether I'm running slightly hot or cold.
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1 dashing dick 133 18/1
2 red mirage 127 11/1
3 mitrosonfire 126 8/1
@harry_rag the race took me 8 mins to rate how long did yours take Micheal?
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44 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
I will rate this race to see what my numbers show
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4.20 Southwell Traditude Tara 28/1 Bet365 EW
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Just now, Fader said:
I like the 9/2 on Ruud to win AFTER losing the 1st set. Djokovic has won the first set and THEN struggled in the last couple of matches and if he is injured, you're likely to see his best set early. Ruud beat him last time out after losing the 1st set too right?
Ruud to win 3-1 for me. The 9/2 is what I'll be going with though for my value.
infact when he beat Djokovic last time, Ruud did infact win the 1st set. However, different circumstances, I suppose.
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