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Posts
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Cork 18.20
Trueba 16/1 Bet 365
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41 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
My data so far seems to back up the use of speed figures in handicaps. Based on their next run in a particular year the AE for non handicaps is 1.023 and shows a small profit whilst for handicaps the AE is 0.978.
Other interesting conclusions at this stage are :-
2yo show a profit with an AE of 1.021.
AW returns are relatively poor with an AE of 0.975.
Horses with forecast odds less than 9/4 have an AE of 0.963.
Returns for class 1 to 3 races have a return of 0.969. This appears to be at odds with the fact that returns are better for non handicaps, I will investigate this further.
This is just for the next run, I now need to extend the analysis to the next few runs.
The Two year olds are everything to me once they have run enough times. You might want to break down the 2yo in pattern races to see if that 1.021 gets better. I stop using the speed figures for singles once a horse enters handicaps and just use them for the pattern at 3yo and up.
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3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
Haha, nothing to do with Freebies, but earlier I had a choice between Napping Amazonian Dream for a win with Oisin Murphy aboard at 2/1 or selecting Lil Guth ew at 4/1 with Will Buick aboard ew at 4/1. WB had lost on his previous ride so I thought I had better value ew at 4/1 because if it won I would get a slightly better return on the ew bet and if it got placed, although, it would not be a winner at least my accumulated loss would not be dented too much. Lil Guth came last at 7/2 and Amaozonian Dream won at 2/1. Hence the horse with the assumed better probabilty of winning won anyway. Loads of twistes and turns in betting theory Eh?
You my lad (yes i know you don't like the word "lad" but its a dialect thingy) need to give your head a wobble, you create more twists and turns than a box of screws. Strewth ew an a 4/1 shot to pennies is a recipe that can only appease your missus.
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On 4/15/2024 at 9:50 AM, Zilzalian said:
Well in my opinion and they way i formulate speed figures, i go off all its wins and places, horses move up and down the handicap over the years so they are relevant certainly for 4 years and i would suggest beyond, didn't Documenting win the other day at a decent price 22/1? That horse is 11 years old, Boom the Groom won 3 times last year at decent prices and that one is 13, the older horses tend to run at their own level all be it lack consistency steadily dropping down in grade until they are retired. That's why i am very weary of handicaps and only use speed seriously in Pattern races or in the heritage handicaps "worth winning". That's not to say they should be discarded because i use this type of horse in Lucky 15 etc for a bit of fun and have done reasonably well out of them. One thing to bear in mind about distances and goings in pattern races the top trainers have a pretty good idea of whether a horse can do the trip or ground particularly as they age from 2yo-3yo-4yo that's why we have so many horses pulled out if the conditions don't suit Trueshan is a good example of that. I do disregard or downgrade horses at distances that they haven't won over once they reach 4 year old and beyond especially in sprints but there are always exceptions to the rules.
My data so far seems to back up the use of speed figures in handicaps. Based on their next run in a particular year the AE for non handicaps is 1.023 and shows a small profit whilst for handicaps the AE is 0.978.
Other interesting conclusions at this stage are :-
2yo show a profit with an AE of 1.021.
AW returns are relatively poor with an AE of 0.975.
Horses with forecast odds less than 9/4 have an AE of 0.963.
Returns for class 1 to 3 races have a return of 0.969. This appears to be at odds with the fact that returns are better for non handicaps, I will investigate this further.
This is just for the next run, I now need to extend the analysis to the next few runs.
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2.40 Nottingham - Lone Piper = E.way 100/1 Paddypower
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