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Posts
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zozimus 320 b 9/4
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22 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:
Yes that was the point i was making, there are always outliers and they in themselves are confounding variables. On the what is a good ew bet? I would differ as well as conceding your point as valid, if i think a horse will win and it is 33/1 it is a good ew bet irrespective of the extra places and or the amount of runners.
You are probably right from a pyschological perspective, you would probably feel upset if it came second and you hadn't backed it each way.
I could prove that you are wrong from a mathematical angle but I'm too busy trying to make sense of my speed data !
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It's worth looking out for bets relating to the number of games going to extra time or penalties as the bookies seem to underestimate how many knockout ties end up in a stalemate. I make it just shy of 38% in the last 6 Euros and World Cups (12 tournaments and 148 games excluding 3rd place games as there isn't one in the Euros).
In terms of pens you could make a case for >1.5 at 5/6 Sky Bet or >2.5 11/10 Hills. There have been 2 or more in 8 out of 8 tournaments that included a round of 16 (so 15 knockout games) and 3 or more in 6 of the 8. 3 of the 4 Euros that only involved 7 KO games still saw 2 shootouts.
Hills go evens for >4 games to go to extra time which isn't bad given that it's landed in 6 of those 8 tournaments. Sky Bet, though, offer the same price for an >3.5 line which was covered in all 8. 3 of the other 4 Euros I looked at saw 3 from just the 7 games.
I think you'd do well to find many better value bets on the competition, whether antepost or on individual games.
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250 East Tyrone 4s
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1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:
It was a fast time but all times were fast that day, I had Passenger later that day running a faster time.
Yes that was the point i was making, there are always outliers and they in themselves are confounding variables. On the what is a good ew bet? I would differ as well as conceding your point as valid, if i think a horse will win and it is 33/1 it is a good ew bet irrespective of the extra places and or the amount of runners.
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