US Open 2021

[neilovan]

Kalinina to beat Kerber at 3.78

Obviously somewhat of a long shot, but I do like the fact that Kalinina defeated Kerber at the French, demolishing her serve (broke it 6 times in 9 games) in a 6-4 6-2 beating. Kalinina struggling against the weapons of top players, but Kerber not a top player anymore. 

Edited September 2, 2021 by neilovan

[neilovan]

Konteviet to beat Teichmann

I do think Konteviet is worth backing to go deep. I watched all her matches in Cleveland. Her ability to take the ball early and redirect, was very very good. Rock solid backhand, which is going to help her nullify the left handed Teichmann. Teichmann had a very good Cinci Masters  (Osaka, Bencic, Pliskova) but I think two of those opponents were under cooked and not ready to play. 

In the Tie break that Konteviet played against Begu in the Cleveland final, she  never dropped a point on her serve, and played the breaker behind (always serving to catch up). Her mental fortitude was that of a Champion, and her decision making and shot exection under pressure ... excellent!

For me the kicker is that Konteviet is 13 of 15 when playing against opponents ranked 50+ in the last 10 months.

Brooksby to beat Fritz

Something not quite clicking with Taylor Fritz at the moment. He lost first match at Citi Open (Kudla 6-4 6-2), Canadian Open (Duckworth 7-6, 6-3) and Western and Southern (Ramos Vinolas 4-6 6-4 6-4) . For me he had a huge drop off in holding serve.  Kudla broke him 5 times in 9, Duckworth 3 in 8 and Vinolas 4 in 15.  At the BB&T Atlanta for example, he lost to Isner in final and held his serve 58 of 59 serve games. So compared to that he's had 3 bad matches (serving) in a row. 

He won his 1st round match against De Minaur which is no big deal for me. The Aussie simply has no weapons to really hurt anyone. So he's fast and fit ... big deal. Everyone is fast and fit! But De Minaur did spank him 6-1 in the 3rd set, which again says his big weapon (serving) is not quite clicking.

Brooksby is on a massive roll. Ranking coming down,  auto qualifying, and going deep at the Citi Open.  His game is rock solid, and at 21 years, is looking like the next star (with Korda) of US tennis. At the Citi Open he held serve 49/52 times.  I would be looking for the straight win, or at least over 33 games here. 

My low priced banker   oh oh !

Hurkacz, Hubert v Seppi, Andreas

2-Way Odds (12) 1    1.09

Pospisil, Vasek v Ivashka, Ilya

2-Way Odds (12) 2    1.26

Harris, Lloyd v Escobedo, Ernesto

2-Way Odds (12) 1    1.24

 

Not sure why everything is starting at 6pm (SA time) and 5pm UK time today?

 

Edited September 2, 2021 by neilovan

[blackhorse2021]

Hi guys, respect to you all and to the this community. I know there are no bankers and but I really need some big hit and it looks for me that OPELKA - MUSETTI should be an easy win for Opelka. What do you guys think about this match ? Odds are low but it looks like an easy win for Opelka. Opelka already defeated Musetti on clay. Musetti probably struggles against big servers as he also lost against Anderson. Opelka is in form, he is at home, Musetti out of form after his famous djokovic match.. Your opinions guys ? thank you.

[CzechPunter]

Hi and welcome to the forum @blackhorse2021! It's how you say it is - Opelka should win, but there are no bankers and this isn't one either.

[liquidglass]

1 hour ago, blackhorse2021 said:

Hi guys, respect to you all and to the this community. I know there are no bankers and but I really need some big hit and it looks for me that OPELKA - MUSETTI should be an easy win for Opelka. What do you guys think about this match ? Odds are low but it looks like an easy win for Opelka. Opelka already defeated Musetti on clay. Musetti probably struggles against big servers as he also lost against Anderson. Opelka is in form, he is at home, Musetti out of form after his famous djokovic match.. Your opinions guys ? thank you.

I really do not like the word "easy" being put before the word "win" in a grandslam as there are normally no mugs entered. Musetti has shortened over the last 24hours which has to be noted. Musetti to win a set at least will be my route. Good luck!!

[liquidglass]

I will be starting my daily nap called Spiders Web which will run right through to the final of the US Open. I will not be individually giving reasons for each pick as they will be picks that will come from a mixture of form, matchups and last minute odd movements. I will be chosing these picks with the aim of making some considerable daily profits. We all know that there are no bankers in this game but I can apply mathematical wisdom and clutch perception to eek out a winning corner here. 

Kontaveit to win a set 1/4

Otte to win a set 1/3

Gracheva +5.5 8/11

K. Pliskova 2/5 (Karolina)

@50 staked = 50 x 3.03 @ 201.51 bet365.com

Good Luck all!

Edited September 2, 2021 by liquidglass

[CzechPunter]

@neilovan They had to make some repairs after yesterday as far as I know.

[Kokukepo]

Hi guys i was looking at the bets for Barty match,
She is giving a handicap of -5.5 games against Carla Tauson. Odds is at -1.49 (sbobet)
So meaning she more than likely the game will end up... 6-3 6-3? or better for Barty.

however the games handicap is at 19.5 games! (at -1.25 sbobet)

what do you think? is this a "trap"?
because it seems too good to be true?

if Barty is expected to unleash 6 games on Tauson wouldnt the number of games be much lesser than 19.5?

thank you for any of your input..

[neilovan]

5 minutes ago, Kokukepo said:

Hi guys i was looking at the bets for Barty match,
She is giving a handicap of -5.5 games against Carla Tauson. Odds is at -1.49 (sbobet)
So meaning she more than likely the game will end up... 6-3 6-3? or better for Barty.

however the games handicap is at 19.5 games! (at -1.25 sbobet)

what do you think? is this a "trap"?
because it seems too good to be true?

if Barty is expected to unleash 6 games on Tauson wouldnt the number of games be much lesser than 19.5?

thank you for any of your input..

I think its quite tricky with Barty for a couple of reasons.

1) She is way to good, and sometimes loses her focus and drifts in a match. Last match she was set point down in the breaker 6-7, and then played 3 great points in a row to win it 9-7.

2) Her serve is not a huge weapon, so she lands up being broken often.

So she is dominant and wins, but they are closer than they should be.

 

[Kokukepo]

she did however serve up plenty of aces on the previous match

Anyway, I can agree on some of the points Neil,
which lets me think why is the odds for the under 19.5 games better than the -5.5 games handicap ?
because it should be the other way around.

Tennis gets me so confused at times..

[vvararu]

If I wouldn't have watched the game between Carreno-Busta and Cressy I would say that Basilashvili to beat Cressy is a banker (@ 1.50). However, Cressy served like a bot starting with third set. So, as it was mentioned, there are no bankers.

[neilovan]

6 minutes ago, vvararu said:

If I wouldn't have watched the game between Carreno-Busta and Cressy I would say that Basilashvili to beat Cressy is a banker (@ 1.50). However, Cressy served like a bot starting with third set. So, as it was mentioned, there are no bankers.

He had something like 47 aces

[vvararu]

12 minutes ago, neilovan said:

He had something like 47 aces

Indeed. Not knowing that, we could consider Basilashvili playing against ATP 151 a banker

[neilovan]

4 minutes ago, vvararu said:

Indeed. Not knowing that, we could consider Basilashvili playing against ATP 151 a banker

I took a small bet on Cressy to win. Carreno Busta a better player and returner of serve and he was helpless.

[Kokukepo]

2 hours ago, neilovan said:

I think its quite tricky with Barty for a couple of reasons.

1) She is way to good, and sometimes loses her focus and drifts in a match. Last match she was set point down in the breaker 6-7, and then played 3 great points in a row to win it 9-7.

2) Her serve is not a huge weapon, so she lands up being broken often.

So she is dominant and wins, but they are closer than they should be.

 

So i had just finished watching the match between Barty and Tauson

And indeed the odds were spot on, Barty won 6-1 7-5 
the -5.5 games AH handicap won easily but the under 19.5 games not so much, that bet almost lost.

Note taken was that Barty starts out firing but 2nd set is very shaky

this has happened for 2 matches in a row now.

[darko08]

2 hours ago, neilovan said:

I think its quite tricky with Barty for a couple of reasons.

1) She is way to good, and sometimes loses her focus and drifts in a match. Last match she was set point down in the breaker 6-7, and then played 3 great points in a row to win it 9-7.

2) Her serve is not a huge weapon, so she lands up being broken often.

So she is dominant and wins, but they are closer than they should be.

Barty has one of the best serves of the circuit (if not the best). She can serve wherever she wants at high speed and she varies it so much. But let's see some stats.
2021: Rank 1 in Aces (297 in 46 matches)
           Rank 1 in 1st Serves Points % (74.9%)
           Rank 1 in Serve Points Won % (64.2%)
           Rank 2 in Service Games Won % (81.3%). Actually, she's the number 1, too (Olmos is the number 1 but she only has 
           played 1 WTA match...)
2020: Not relevant because she only played 14 matches
2019: Rank 3 in Aces (409 in 64 matches). Only behind Karo and Bertens.
           Rank 9 in 1st Serve Points % (72.8%). Actually, she was the 4th best player. Only behind Serena and the Pliskova twins.
           Rank 3 in Serve Points Won % (63.7%). Actually, she was the 2nd best player. Only behind Serena.
           Rank 4 in Service Games Won % (79.7%). Actually, she was the 2nd best player. Only behind Serena.
2018: Rank 4 in Aces (297 in 61 matches). Only behind Goerges, Karo and Bertens
           Rank 7 in 1st Serve Points (71.6%). Actually, she was the 3rd best player. Only behind Serena and Goerges.
           Rank 4 in Serve Points Won % (63.5%). Actually, she was the 2nd best player. Only behind Serena.
           Rank 4 in Service Games Won % (78.7%). Actually, she was the 2nd best. Only behind Serena.

In 2021, she has been the number 1 on everything, so we can say she's the best one right now.

[CzechPunter]

Aryna Sabalenka to beat Danielle Collins at 1.50 with Pinnacle

I saw both in the previous round and I liked Sabalenka more. Collins has a game plan built around attacking weak second serves etc., but Sabalenka won't provide her with many of those like Juvan did. The H2H record suggests as much and, in what's a contest of two ball-bashers, I'm happy to pick the more complex and stronger one.

[neilovan]

Halep v Rybakina

Looking at the stats for this matchup a few things are clear.

Halep is a far better returner of the ball, creating 1.1 breaks points per opponent serve game (against top 50 and lower). Excellent numbers !  Rybakina is around about .75

Rybakina has a poor hard court record when compared to grass and even clay this year. 

Wins: Clay 12/18     Grass 6/8     Hard 10/20.  Kind of makes sense because on hard court the bounce of a fast paced ball is true, making returning easier.

Halep has been far better against opponents ranked 50 and below (9/13 wins). Rybakina is 8/20 against similar group.

So it's a match up between a good server (who will dominate if the serve dominates), and an excellent returner who will do likewise if the returns dominate.  My feeling is that the return dominates and Halep wins a relatively close match.

Kicker for me is that Halep has won 5 of 7 three setters (last 10 months) while Rybakina has won just 5 of 16. So a close match going to 3 definitely favors Halep.

Evans v Popyrin

Evans had COVID and it definitely affects one, especially at elite sport levels. I had it in June, luckily not badly, but getting back on the court was weird. Somedays ready to go, and other days as flat as a pancake with no energy. Weird loses at CIti Open and Canadian (Nakashima and Bublik, hardly world beaters).

Popyrin comes into this in better form. The win over Dimitrov  was excellent ... (Dimitrov quitting at 2 sets down and 0-4 was p&s^poor). 

Dimitrov was looking great prior to this, serving like a demon! An interesting fact is that Popyrin also comes from the land of the Giants (he is 6f 5'), and resulting cannon serve (see Korda at Wimbledon) seems to give Evans a lot problems. Break points faced are very low. 

Nothing much between them but the ability to get free points on the serve swings it to Popyrin for me. Once you can get freebees on your serve, you can attack your opponents serve and be ultra aggressive, because you know you are gonna hold your own.

Alcaraz v Tsisipas

Alcaraz has a real shot here. Something is not clicking with Stephanos. I don't think he played brilliant against Murray. Murray actually gave him the second set, and probably the match.

How he arrived at Wimbledon was totally bizarre, getting dumped in the 1st round. Which player ranked 4th in the world is gonna arrive for a major like that, so under prepared? Alarm bell for me.

Alcaraz really impressed me with his demolition of Norrie in the 1st round. The nature of the win was quite unexpected, showing court craft and guile against a crafty/finesse type  player. 

Not a big bet on Alcaraz here but the outcome is prob gonna be a lot closer than the pre match odds suggest.

 

Edited September 3, 2021 by neilovan

[lelit]

I think the odds over 2 on Kontaveit is a value. Swiatek is in a crisis, she plays mechanically, nervously, predictably, she often cries during matches because she is helpless. It is very strange because with her rich arsenal and athleticism she should constantly win. Unfortunately her taktical skills are very poor.

H/H is 2:1 for Kontaveit.

I believe that her staff is too little experienced and can no longer help her.

[darko08]

Some notes about the 3 matches that I could watch: Andreescu-Davis, Shapo-Carballes and Pliskova-Anisimova (the last 2 were played at the same time so I had to watch one on the TV and the other on my computer...).

Andreescu-Davis. Andreescu played incredibly bad but she won the match 2-0 (6-4, 6-4). She was dominated by Davis but the american could not capitalize that domination. In case she would have played against a decent player, she would have lost. Fortunately for her, she has a good draw and now she will face a LL (Minnen). It's shocking to see a Top 10 player (frozen ranking has saved her until now) being at 1.30 against a Lucky Loser, but this reflects the point she is right now. Actually, I wouldn't be surprised to see Minnen causing her some problems (despite the big difference that exists between these players), if she does not increase her level.

Shapo-Carballes. Shapo had a really tough time against Carballes (at least during the 1st set and the first games of the 2nd set). The spaniard could reach the TB cause he played well with his serve but also thanks to all Denis' errors. Once there, Shapo took the lead (4-2), but he was shaky and he lost 4 straight points (during the TB he did 3 Double Faults...!). Roberto had 3 SPs (2 on serve) but he choked. At the beginning of the 2nd set, the spaniard had a BP to take the lead but he wasted it and the match finished there. 

Pliskova-Anisimova. The most thrilling match of this USO (along with the Masarova-Bogdan). Both players were hitting winners everywhere... It could have gone either way. Actually, Anisimova was leading the TB of the 3rd set 5-2 but she played those final points without taking risks, expecting Pliskova to fail. It's remarkable how good Pliskova played with her serve.

[liquidglass]

Surprisingly I got off to a good start yester day on my Spiders Web segment with all the picks ending up as outright winners. This really puts me under pressure for a repeat of the dose. I believe that I have done so well in private on this grand slam to be confident of following up. Here we go.

A Popyrin 1/1

Alex Molcan /Schwartzman over 31.5 games 4/7 (Alt handicap)

Sloane Stephens to win a set 2/5

Tiafoe/Rublev over 34.5 (Alternative handicaps) 4/7 @paddypower

 

Good luck All!!!

Edited September 3, 2021 by liquidglass

[delfino]

Tsitsipas is a comet. Not a real tennis player. He is the next Kyrgios. Very very bad attitude. I am so happy he is out of the tournament. I am so sad because Murray didn't punish him from the first round. 

[CzechPunter]

Aslan Karatsev to beat Jenson Brooksby at 2.03 with Pinnacle

Going against the tide here. Quite a few bettors seem to be on Brooksby and the odds have dropped a bit on him as well, but I think the win last round was exactly what Karatsev needed. That was against a tough opponent that didn't back down, now Brooksby is a player Karatsev crushed earlier this year and could do so again. Brooksby grinded out a tough win over Fritz, but he looked a bit injured and his lack of fitness is bothering me a bit. He's playing at home, so plenty to dig into, but Karatsev is classier when on fire, way classier. On balance, I think Karatsev should be the fav here, not Brooksby.

[liquidglass]

HOPING TO TURN IT UP TODAY ON Spider's Web

Berretini to win and both players to win a set 6/4

Basilashvili to win a set 2/5

Lloyd Harris to win a set 1/3

Sakkari/Kvitova over 21.5 games 8/11  @bet 365 (Advice 8/10) Good luck all

[DrO]

Nishikori is just awful in this second set. Unbelievably how many break points he throw away. 

[delfino]

Murray got mad of Tsitsipas behavior. Murray is not alone, is not an isolated player. Murray belongs to the big 4, the best ever team of tennis players playing at the same period. Murray is a legend. Tsitsipas is a Kyrgios. The whole original tennis community is now against Tsitsipas. Tennis by no means is on need of cheaters like Kyrgios and Tsirsipas. We can live very well WITHOUT them-delfino

[bet4fun]

so finally someone is able to find the flaws in barty's game and this is precisely why she did not win in front of her fans in australia. million dollar question now is who will win the US open. some of them like raducanu, pavlyuchenkova were available at throw back prices to win the US open. will it be andreescu who is certainly the favorite. I dont agree with bookies having sabalenka as the favorite. I dont think she even deserves to reach the semis. apart from her muscle power she has got nothing and this new generation fast players like fernandez, iga or raducanu whom I am not underestimating can throw her game apart

[bet4fun]

9 hours ago, delfino said:

Murray got mad of Tsitsipas behavior. Murray is not alone, is not an isolated player. Murray belongs to the big 4, the best ever team of tennis players playing at the same period. Murray is a legend. Tsitsipas is a Kyrgios. The whole original tennis community is now against Tsitsipas. Tennis by no means is on need of cheaters like Kyrgios and Tsirsipas. We can live very well WITHOUT them-delfino

tsitispas has completely lost it after the french open loss. he should have won it but he is not a bad player at all.

[bet4fun]

does anyone feel carlos garfia can reach the semis

[CzechPunter]

Well, Alcaraz should definitely get past Gojowczyk and then he has chances to go further as well.

Kinda happy I called the outrights out, both Osaka and Shapovalov lost before getting to the finals and R4, respectively. Osaka lost way ahead, in fact, though that wasn't too shocking to me.

Brooksby could've easily lost against Karatsev and I'm not sure why Tsitsipas is getting all the flak here. Brooksby used the same tactics against Karatsev. Sat in a chair for a few minutes, then decided to go for an off-court break. Yet Tsitsipas is a dirty cheat and Brooksby is a promising US player haha!

I can see Harris getting the better of Opelka in the next round, will probably be betting it as well. He's outplayed him in both previous matches, but it's 1-1 because he choked big time once. After beating Shapovalov so cleanly, some of those mental blocks could be gone.