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US Open 2021


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  • 1 month later...

Well, this is all I have for the first 2 days of the USO. If it goes well I will keep posting bets.

Outrights:

Medvedev to Reach the SF - Yes at 1.61 with bet365

Gasquet (1R) - Koepfer/Qualifier (2R) - Cilic (3R) - Evans/Giron/Popyrin/Dimitrov (4R) - Ruud/Schwartzmann/Fokina/Isner (QF)
If nothing strange happens Medvedev should reach the SFs. Cilic is miles away from his best form. Both Evans and Dimitrov are not in a good form either. Ruud is playing good but the way he was destroyed by Tsitsipas in Toronto (6-1, 6-4) and by Sascha in Cincinnati (6-1, 6-3) says me that he has no options against Medvedev. Isner shouldn't be a threat either. He had physical problems while he was playing in Cincinnati and Medvedev already destroyed him in Toronto (6-2, 6-2) just 2 weeks ago.

Matches:

Kevin Anderson (vs. Vesely) + Bublik (vs. Hanfmann) at 1.74 with betfair

Neither Vesely nor Hanfmann has prepared for the US Open. Hanfmann has not played a single match since he played in Bastad (on clay), 1 month ago. Vesely hasn't played this month, either. The last time he played a match was in Kitzbuhel (on clay). Kevin won the ATP Newport (on grass) in July and he has spent all this month preparing for the USO. He played in Atlanta, Washington and Cincinnati (2-3). He lost against Kyrgios, Brooksby and Khachanov, and he beat Musetti and Johnson. A couple of days ago he said that his goal is to win the tournament. Well..., I expect him to win at least this 1st round match. Bublik played in Washington, Montreal, Cincinnati and Winston-Salem (2-4). He lost against Nishikori, Medvedev, Dimitrov and Ruusuvuori, and he beat Evans and Giron.

McDonald (vs. Goffin) + Opelka (vs Kwon) at 2.15 with William Hill

McDonald has had a good year (38-20). He has played a lot of tournaments on american soil in order to prepare the USO. In Washington, he reached the Final. He beat Kyrgios, Paire, Ivashka, Kudla and Nishikori. He finally lost against Sinner but he was close to win (7-5, 4-6, 7-5). Goffin has lost the last 5 matches he has played (Delbonis, Bedene, Musetti, Moutet and Pella). He has suffered a lot of injuries during the last months. In Halle, he had to retire due to an ankle injury. He returned after 2 months but he was destroyed by Pella (6-3, 6-3) in his first match in Cincinnati. He was supposed to play in Winston-Salem but he finally didn't due to a knee injury. I don't like to bet on players as Opelka, Isner, etc, cause their matches have a lot of TBs. That being said, I think he should beat Kwon. Opelka reached the Final in Toronto and he beat good players (Kyrgios, Dimitrov, Harris, Bautista and Tsitsipas). Kwon lost easily against Paul (6-3, 6-2) in Cincinnati and then he lost in a 3 set match against PCB, before beating Albot in 2 sets in Winston-Salem. These players met in Delray Beach the last year and Opelka beat him easily (6-3, 6-4).

Ramos to beat Pouille at 1.66 with bet365

Pouille has had a really bad year (10-17). Before playing in Winston-Salem he was in a 5 losing streak. In Winson-Salem, he struggled to beat 2 bad players in the qualification, Darian King (6-7, 6-4, 6-4) and Rubin (4-6, 7-6, 6-2). He beat Feli easily in the 1st round and he lost against Evans. As I said, I saw that last match and he played incredibly bad. Besides, he needed medical treatment for back problems. Ramos has played in Toronto, Cincinnati and Winston-Salem. He lost against Cilic in 3 sets in Toronto. In Cincinnati he beat Fritz in a 3 set match. He lost against Berrettini in the 2nd round but he was close to win (7-6, 3-6, 5-7). In Winston-Salem, he lost easily against M.Ymer. Ramos' results on this surface are not good and he never has had good results here but Pouille has been playing horrible and the spaniard is the kind of player that gives everything he has when he plays. Besides, he clearly leads the h2h against Pouille (4-1).

Raducanu to beat Brady at 2.10 with bet365

Brady has played only 3 matches since the FO. She lost easily against Giorgi in the Olympics (6-3, 6-2). In Cincinnati, she beat Alexandrova in the 1st round (6-3, 7-6) but then she had to retire (again...) when she was playing against Ostapenko due to her foot injury. She already had to retire when she was playing against Gauff in the FO and then she missed the entire grass season. As I said on a previous post, Raducanu's preparation for this tournament has been good (Landisville and Chicago) and she has beat easily all her opponents of the qualification in straight sets (Schoofs, Bolkvadze and Sherif). Brady won't be at her best and Raducanu is in a good form so at these odds I bet on her.

McNally (+6.5 Games) to beat Karolina Pliskova at 1.72 with bet365

Pliskova is the favorite player, for sure, but I expect some resistance from McNally here. Pliskova is playing good. She reached the Final in Montreal and the SFs in Cincinnati. McNally has played in Landisville, Cincinnati and Cleveland as a preparation for the USO. She beat some low ranked players and her defeats have been against Minnen (7-5, 6-3), Yastremska (7-6, 7-6) and Kasatkina (2-6, 6-4, 6-2). Pliskova has to win this but IMO this line is exaggerated. It's also important to mention that McNally will have the entire crowd behind her. In the last edition of the USO she beat Kuzmova and Alexandrova and she lost in the 3rd round against Mertens. In 2019 she destroyed Bacsinszky (6-4, 6-1) in the 1st round and then she took a set from Serena Williams in the 2nd round. 

Edited by darko08
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Well, here we are with the final Grand Slam of the season. As always, best of luck to everyone who places a bet!

Naomi Osaka NOT to reach Finals at 1.25 with Bet365

Straight away, I know that I want to oppose Osaka at a good price. She's so unreliable and the pressure will be at its finest, so I'm going to invest a bet to find out if she can overcome it. I know the odds are short, but I played something similar one GS back and was happy with how it went.

Denis Shapovalov NOT to reach 4th round at 1.80 with Bet365

Shapovalov has been very inconsistent lately and the longer format works against him in this respect as well. He doesn't have a particularly tough draw, but it's himself who's his biggest enemy. When he's misfiring, he can lose against the Koprivas out there and this is another level.

For match bets, I already know I want these:

Fabio Fognini to beat Vasek Pospisil at 1.72 with Pinnacle

This is more about going against Pospisil, though Fognini hasn't done much wrong lately. Folding against Moutet on a hard court is pretty awful, I've seen Corentin plenty of times in this season and there wasn't a single good match among those.

Thiago Monteiro (+2.5 sets) to beat Daniel Evans at 1.67 with Pinnacle

Just another bet against EVO, as usual.

Angelique Kerber (-1.5 sets) to beat Dayana Yastremska at 1.76 with Unibet

I saw a bit of Yastremska and she doesn't seem to be fully back. I imagine she took a lengthy break before her fate was known and this is a tough challenge to beat so early after coming back. Kerber has been on the up, though, a second wind of sorts. I'm not sure she has what it takes to go far, but some of her recent results were very impressive.
 

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On 8/27/2021 at 8:54 PM, CzechPunter said:

Well, here we are with the final Grand Slam of the season. As always, best of luck to everyone who places a bet!

Naomi Osaka NOT to reach Finals at 1.25 with Bet365

Straight away, I know that I want to oppose Osaka at a good price. She's so unreliable and the pressure will be at its finest, so I'm going to invest a bet to find out if she can overcome it. I know the odds are short, but I played something similar one GS back and was happy with how it went.

Denis Shapovalov NOT to reach 4th round with Bet365

Shapovalov has been very inconsistent lately and the longer format works against him in this respect as well. He doesn't have a particularly tough draw, but it's himself who's his biggest enemy. When he's misfiring, he can lose against the Koprivas out there and this is another level.

For match bets, I already know I want these:

Fabio Fognini to beat Vasek Pospisil at 1.72 with Pinnacle

This is more about going against Pospisil, though Fognini hasn't done much wrong lately. Folding against Moutet on a hard court is pretty awful, I've seen Corentin plenty of times in this season and there wasn't a single good match among those.

Thiago Monteiro (+2.5 sets) to beat Daniel Evans at 1.67 with Pinnacle

Just another bet against EVO, as usual.

Angelique Kerber (-1.5 sets) to beat Dayana Yastremska at 1.76 with Unibet

I saw a bit of Yastremska and she doesn't seem to be fully back. I imagine she took a lengthy break before her fate was known and this is a tough challenge to beat so early after coming back. Kerber has been on the up, though, a second wind of sorts. I'm not sure she has what it takes to go far, but some of her recent results were very impressive.
 

afternoon czech. being back after a long time on this forum. agree for all except for osaka to reach the finals. i think she up's her game usually when she reaches the quarter finals but barty is the favorite. based on how the other players are succumbing against her I see her winning easily

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3 hours ago, bet4fun said:

afternoon czech. being back after a long time on this forum. agree for all except for osaka to reach the finals. i think she up's her game usually when she reaches the quarter finals but barty is the favorite. based on how the other players are succumbing against her I see her winning easily

That's how to post when you disagree with what someone else has said. Nice one @bet4fun

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So finally the US open is here. They have new surface supplier at US open (started in 2020) called Laykold 

 

Tournament Supplier Surface ITF Court Pace Rating Ball Used
Australian Open Greenset Worldwide Australian Open GreenSet Category 4 – Medium-Fast Dunlop Australian Open
French Open Supersol Red Clay Category 1 – Slow Wilson French Open
Wimbledon Mother Nature 100% Perennial Ryegrass N/A Slazenger Wimbledon
US Open Advanced Polymer Technology Laykold Cushion Plus System Category 2 – Medium-Slow Wilson US Open

 

Tiny bit slower than the old court surface decoturf which will definitely help Djokovich. But in the Woman's game it makes things very interesting. Fitter and stronger get assistance. I don't think anyone fancies playing someone like Sorribes Tormo on this surface, especially in NY heat (not bad this week).

My #1 tip for the day is Giorgi to beat Simona Halep. Giorgi winning the Canadian Open, beating 6 top 40 players in a row is insane. Her next week was an (expected) emotional/physical  letdown, but the batteries are charged and she will come out blasting.  She won 5 of those 6 matches in Canada in straight sets, serving really well. Pound for [pound, not many on the Woman's tour hit it harder than she does. 

I think Halep gets overpowered here. She is just not ready for the US open. She played one match in a warm up tournament, and then withdrew second match. She is definitely under cooked and for her to be the fav in this match up is just wrong.

In the mens' I like Kyrigos to beat Bautista Agut. Hopefully Nick has not been playing video games 24/7 for the last 5 weeks. If he is reasonably fit, and slightly motivated he will cause an upset here. I don't mind his attitude .... he's honest. He has serious talent, but his ability to win free points off the serve could get him home.  Plane, luggage, taxi , hotel, practice, match is a brutal soul destroying grind, week after week, for an entire year.

 

As for the Brits, I just don't know. Evans has not been playing well ... really since Wimbeldon. Murray got a brutal draw against Tsistipas first round and will get hammered. Norrie has a really tricky match against Carlos Alcaraz, who could easily win there.

 

 

Edited by neilovan
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8 minutes ago, neilovan said:

Tiny bit slower than the old court surface decoturf which will definitely help Djokovich.

But,just a few days ago,Djokovic said (after practice with Shapovalov) they've both agreed that surface is 15% faster than last year and it will be even 15% faster in second week of the tournament. Ok,those are their impressions but still..i don't think that conditions will be that slow..

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Agreed on virtually everything there, Murray's not going anywhere, Norrie has a chance, Evans...well, I've been opposing him for a while now, ever since I learned that he suffered a bad spell with COVID. It's not only the lack of practice, but the illness has had different effects on different players. Some were fine right away, some suffered big time. Evans seems to be like Dimitrov in this respect, struggling...and you don't want to be in that situation and play BO5 matches, which is why I think Monteiro takes at least a set, he's a dedicated man that works hard. Not anywhere near the level of talent Evans packs, but he makes up for that with resilience and attitude.

Kyrgios might very well be value in that spot, but it wouldn't shock anyone to see him go down 0-3 either. The problem with Giorgi is that the bookies have that knowledge as well and it's now even in the odds, which is hard for me to fancy. Good luck though!

 

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4 picks for the US Open 1st round matches:

ATP MEDVEDEV -8.5 GAMES OVER GASQUET  @ 1.82 at pinnacle
ATP MEDVEDEV-GASQUET 3:0 SETS @ 1.41 at pinnacle
Medvedev is probably the second favourite to win the tournament. Also, very good match-up for Medvedev here as Gasquet is not consistent enough and is not in good enough physical form to last against Medvedev.

ATP AUGER ALLIASSIME -DONSKOY 3:0 SETS @ 1.74 at pinnacle
Donskoy is a veteran qualifier with 3 good wins in qualifying but he has no weapons to compete against the favourite here: average serve, no power and no consistency from the baseline either.

WTA KREJCIKOVA-SHARMA 2:0 SETS @ 1.44 at pinnacle
Krejcikova is known mostly as a clay court player (winning French Open this year and many other clay court tournaments) but she has a good game for faster surfaces prooving it this year on hard and grass. She is a better player than Sharma on every surface now.

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A few thoughts ahead of the first day which starts shortly. Firstly, I couldn't back Giorgi at even money against Halep, regardless of the Romanians condition. She may not be in top shape, but she'll try as hard as she can to get a result. Giorgi is far too hit and miss - the kind of player who can beat anyone and lose to anyone (or perhaps more accurately, lose to herself through very high unforced error numbers). She'd have to be the clear dog for me to back her in this match.

Some other matches that look interesting include Berankis against Diego - that might be closer than the odds suggest as Berankis is decent on hard whilst Diego prefers clay. Handicap value maybe. Feliciano plays Bernabe Miralles, and despite being the bigger name he looks in almost terminal decline to me. Not sure when he plans to retire, but Bernabe Miralles could be worth a play even as the favourite. Agree about Evans, he's definitely worth opposing and Monteiro should be able to push him after a good performance against Tiafoe last week. Isner v Nakashima looks like an overs match to me, maybe even five sets. 

Kukushkin should enjoy conditions better than Andujar, but then again he's not reliable. Probably best play overs or leave alone. Karlovic might be able to get a set against Rublev at a good price, probably a tie-break but who knows. I wouldn't want to trust Rublev to win in straights. Tsitsipas should beat Murray but I can see Murray taking a set, and again at a good price. Popyrin looks too short against Albot - he's not exactly pulled up any trees this season and Albot is good enough to take a set despite his poor form. You'd think Tsonga could at least take a set against Ruud, but like Feliciano he seems to be in steep decline so probably best to leave alone. 

Tiafoe should beat Eubanks with something to spare - possible handicap value after what looked like a tank against Ymer last week (although Tiafoe said he played so poorly because of physical problems). I agree about Kyrgios - definitely worth backing at the price. I don't agree about his attitude, but that's another conversation. Lastly, Gasquet has to be worth a play on one of the handicaps. Not sure which one - whether he can take a set or cover the game line.

Krejcikova should account for Sharma without too many difficulties, so the set and game lines are worth looking at. Linette did well last week and could cause Gauff problems, especially as Gauff's pushy style means she can get drawn into long matches like last year when she played and lost to Sevastova. Svitolina might find some resistance against Marino, who has a had a bit of a resurgence since playing at home in Canada the other week. Similarly Ruse could push Vondrousova, who was poor last week albeit she might have been tanking. Regardless, Ruse has plenty of wins recently and that's always a good situation to be in going up against a player who's expected to beat you. Pironkova did well here last year and seems to be a bit of a Grand Slam specialist, so it wouldn't surprise me to see her beat Kasatkina at a nice price and it'll be fascinating to see how Osaka does. Should come through without too many problems, but it'll just be a watching brief for me to see how she looks.

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Glad to see active discussion and analysis about tennis betting here in Punterslounge; not many forums around where can be found actual talk from this point of view.


As a Finnish I’m looking forward Majchrzak - Ruusuvuori tonight. Ruusuvuori is a clear favourite here, as a pretty fresh rising newcomer on ATP Tour, and anything but win is huge upset for him. Emil played on Semi-Finals in Winston-Salem couple of days ago and five games in week may affect his fatigue, that have been quite his issue in his early career. Secondly this year’s court seem to be bit slowish that not favour Ruusuvuori who is at his best to hit on fast rising bouncing balls. To add, (mentally) Ruusuvuori is quite unconsistent player inside games and sets; especially he needs to be improved in serving consistency to not give so much break ball opportunities for opponent. Usually we see lot of breaks in his games.

So what I like here and expect is that is going to be straight 3 setter for neither player. Odds are not that great for sure, you can find over 3,5 sets priced around 1,60-1,70 depending on bookies. Points explained above; 1) Emil’s current fatigue, 2) court conditions and 3) Emil’s unconsistency inside a game I expect this match to be like 1-3, 2-3 win for Ruusuvuori.

Don’t take this too seriously though, just wanted to share some thoughts about this game as a Finnish, who likes to follow Ruusuvuori’s ATP-tennis journey after our only ATP-player Jarkko Nieminen retired his career years ago :)

 

 

 

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8 hours ago, neilovan said:

So finally the US open is here. They have new surface supplier at US open (started in 2020) called Laykold 

 

Tournament Supplier Surface ITF Court Pace Rating Ball Used
Australian Open Greenset Worldwide Australian Open GreenSet Category 4 – Medium-Fast Dunlop Australian Open
French Open Supersol Red Clay Category 1 – Slow Wilson French Open
Wimbledon Mother Nature 100% Perennial Ryegrass N/A Slazenger Wimbledon
US Open Advanced Polymer Technology Laykold Cushion Plus System Category 2 – Medium-Slow Wilson US Open

 

Tiny bit slower than the old court surface decoturf which will definitely help Djokovich. But in the Woman's game it makes things very interesting. Fitter and stronger get assistance. I don't think anyone fancies playing someone like Sorribes Tormo on this surface, especially in NY heat (not bad this week).

My #1 tip for the day is Giorgi to beat Simona Halep. Giorgi winning the Canadian Open, beating 6 top 40 players in a row is insane. Her next week was an (expected) emotional/physical  letdown, but the batteries are charged and she will come out blasting.  She won 5 of those 6 matches in Canada in straight sets, serving really well. Pound for [pound, not many on the Woman's tour hit it harder than she does. 

I think Halep gets overpowered here. She is just not ready for the US open. She played one match in a warm up tournament, and then withdrew second match. She is definitely under cooked and for her to be the fav in this match up is just wrong.

In the mens' I like Kyrigos to beat Bautista Agut. Hopefully Nick has not been playing video games 24/7 for the last 5 weeks. If he is reasonably fit, and slightly motivated he will cause an upset here. I don't mind his attitude .... he's honest. He has serious talent, but his ability to win free points off the serve could get him home.  Plane, luggage, taxi , hotel, practice, match is a brutal soul destroying grind, week after week, for an entire year.

 

As for the Brits, I just don't know. Evans has not been playing well ... really since Wimbeldon. Murray got a brutal draw against Tsistipas first round and will get hammered. Norrie has a really tricky match against Carlos Alcaraz, who could easily win there.

 

 

Nice to see Giorgi bomb out twice in a row. Amazing to see woman pro's who cannot serve the ball. Go and practice. Giorgi won 1 point in 5 in the tie-breaker on her serve. 

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Just now, Torque said:

That's Giorgi in a nutshell unfortunately.

I watched quite a bit of the WTA in Cleveland and the other one. Konteviet was excellent and so was Svitalina. Konteviet won the breaker against Begu, and never dropped a point on her serve. She was brilliant. Streets ahead of Giorgi, making no unforced errors second set (ridiculous). 

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4 minutes ago, neilovan said:

I watched quite a bit of the WTA in Cleveland and the other one. Konteviet was excellent and so was Svitalina. Konteviet won the breaker against Begu, and never dropped a point on her serve. She was brilliant. Streets ahead of Giorgi, making no unforced errors second set (ridiculous). 

Yeah Kontaveit was excellent in that final, as she was more or less right the way through the tournament. She's another player though that struggles with consistency and it's consistency rather than ability that seems to separate the best players. I'd say Barty is number one mainly because she has a level of consistency that is streets ahead of anyone else right now.

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3 minutes ago, Torque said:

Yeah Kontaveit was excellent in that final, as she was more or less right the way through the tournament. She's another player though that struggles with consistency and it's consistency rather than ability that seems to separate the best players. I'd say Barty is number one mainly because she has a level of consistency that is streets ahead of anyone else right now.

Ugo Humbert about to be dispatched. He was 2 to 10 to win. 

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2 minutes ago, neilovan said:

Ugo Humbert about to be dispatched. He was 2 to 10 to win. 

It's not over yet. Don't be surprised if it turns around. His opponent is no world-beater and being able to get over the winning line is another thing that separates the best players from the rest.

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9 minutes ago, Torque said:

It's not over yet. Don't be surprised if it turns around. His opponent is no world-beater and being able to get over the winning line is another thing that separates the best players from the rest.

I think with the 5 setters there is more space for a match to swing. Especially when players are not invested in a set (ie. the Humbert match).. They will rather throw a set and fire in the next one. Auger Alissime looks in trouble :)

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11 minutes ago, neilovan said:

I think with the 5 setters there is more space for a match to swing. Especially when players are not invested in a set (ie. the Humbert match).. They will rather throw a set and fire in the next one. Auger Alissime looks in trouble :)

Humbert definitely gave up in at least one of those sets he lost. He wont be giving up now though - unless he goes way behind in the decider. FAA in trouble as you say - he's always flattered to deceive in my opinion. Lost something like seven finals without so much as winning a set. He might be a talented 'tennis' player, but he's definitely missing something in the mental department.

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1 hour ago, neilovan said:

I watched quite a bit of the WTA in Cleveland and the other one. Konteviet was excellent and so was Svitalina. Konteviet won the breaker against Begu, and never dropped a point on her serve. She was brilliant. Streets ahead of Giorgi, making no unforced errors second set (ridiculous). 

The WTA is now so complex unlike the past years when a handful of women ran the show. Now we see a rotation of players exhibiting form in different parts of the tennis calender. Giorgi had already played her season before today. A few others too like Barty, Pliskova and Krejicova are clear banana peels here. Expect a fresh crop of girls to shine in this last quarter of the season. I am hoping Yastremska will come good against Kerber here.

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1 hour ago, neilovan said:

We have 3 channels of tennis on here. 

Keys v Stevens 

Vecic v Muguruza

Auger Alismme v Donskoy. Crazy.

 

Keys even worth a bet now, even at 7 to 10

 Wow, what an awful tie breaker she played. Pathetically bad, missing 5 forehands. Error strewn rubbish.

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7 minutes ago, neilovan said:

 Wow, what an awful tie breaker she played. Pathetically bad, missing 5 forehands. Error strewn rubbish.

Nothing would have surprised me in that match. Almost Exhibit A versus Exhibit B in inconsistent players.

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Well, Stephens didn't deserve to win that one at all, the odds on Gauff-Stephens might look off to many, but Stephens wasn't good at all. I was surprised by how poor her serves were most of the time given what she's capable of. Didn't see Gauff yet, but I'm definitely not backing Stephens in that one. Halep looked better than expected to me and I also caught a glimpse of Krejcikova. Very decent, just getting the job done with minimal fuss. Needs to improve a bit, but that shouldn't be an issue, she seemed to be holding back a bit and not wasting much energy

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