US Open 2021

[DrO]

14 hours ago, Torque said:

Kind of says it all about the more random nature of WTA that Keys v Stephens was the US Open final the other year.

It's getting even more strange when you realize that neither of them was seeded in the draw. 

[vvararu]

Bautista-Agut to beat Ruusuvuori @ ~1.50

Even if the odds are not very big, I still find them pretty good for the quality of Bautista-Agut. For me, the spaniard is 1 level higher than Ruusuvuori, even if the latest has some wins in his pocket lately. Expecting 3:0 or 3:1 in favor of RBA.

[CzechPunter]

Roberto Bautista-Agut to beat Emil Ruusuvori at 1.54 with Pinnacle

Agreed with @vvararu here, RBA should be way too big a mountain to climb in the longer format. I'd find these odds alright in best-of-three, but he'll outlast Ruusuvori more often than not as well if it comes to that.

[neilovan]

Back for more punishment after yesterday. 

Had Rebecca Petersen to beat Mertens and she blew it, leading 6-3 and 5-2 serving for the match. Just a bizarre game, in which she was dominant and did not win.

My feeling in the big draw tournaments is that there is plenty of low hanging fruit that can be used to make decent 6-9 legged bets, especially in the early rounds.

Obviously, anybody can lose but I like this 9 legger.

Galfi, Dalma v Martic, Petra 2-Way Odds (12) 2   1.44 Kostyuk, Marta v Sakkari, Maria

2-Way Odds (12) 2   1.38

Pliskova, Karolina v Mcnally, Catherine

2-Way Odds (12) 1   1.10

Moutet, Corentin v Travaglia, Stefano

2-Way Odds (12) 1   1.56

Raducanu, Emma v Voegele, Stefanie

2-Way Odds (12) 1    1.15

Barty, Ashleigh v Zvonareva, Vera

Correct Set Score 2:0   1.20

Schmiedlova, Anna-Karolina v Krueger, Ashlyn

Correct Set Score 2:0  1.24

Bucsa, Cristina v Teichmann, Jil

2-Way Odds (12) 2   1.19

Kvitova, Petra v Hercog, Polona

2-Way Odds (12) 1    1.17

So 3 legs are a little risky for me (Moutet, Sakkari and Martic). Krueger done great to get into main draw, but this is a huge step up in opponent. My algorithm puts Sakkari way in front regarding serving and returning ability. Sakkari has played 9 matches against opponents ranked 50+ and has won 8 matches. Martic is a seasoned pro, who doesn't beat herself. She also dominates the serving stats here, and its again a big step up from challenger level from Galfi.

I'm prepared for slightky more risk in the men's choices, simply because it's best of 5 and class should prevail. For me not a huge amount between Moutet and Travaglia, but I do like the fact that Travaglia lost quite badly to Ymer at Winston Salem. At the Cinncinati masters Moutet beat both Popyrin and Pospisil and I think it sets him up well here.

Interested to hear your views as to which horse is gonna poop the bed

Best of luck to you.

. 

 

Edited August 31, 2021 by neilovan

[CzechPunter]

One of the three you've listed I'd say. Moutet is a very weak favourite in my eyes.

[neilovan]

18 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

One of the three you've listed I'd say. Moutet is a very weak favourite in my eyes.

Could change him  and take Rielly Opelka against Kwon at 1.31   ?

I have another three legged bet that I feel confident about

Badosa, Paula v Van Uytvanck, Alison 2-Way Odds (12) 1  1.25

Bencic, Belinda v Rus, Arantxa

2-Way Odds (12) 1   1.22

Hurkacz, Hubert v Gerasimov, Egor

2-Way Odds (12) 1   1.15

 

van Uytvanck will struggle in the heat (meant to be 30C today, with humidity). Bencic is just tough as nails, and Hurkacz my 'dark' pick  to win it all, works out around 7.5 to 10 and that's my big bet of the day

Edited August 31, 2021 by neilovan

[partio]

I agree with above, experience Spaniard Bautista-Agut is tough match-up for Ruusuvuori, but few points still stands out in favour of Finnishman to get at least something out from it;

 

RBA prefer grind rallies and hit flat balls from back the baseline as Emil - in principle he’s decent match-up for Finnishman. From this point of view Emil may have better chance to get into his own rhythm and strenght zones as well.

Bautista is not as aggressive tempo player as for eg. Jannik Sinner; I believe Emil may get his moments control the game. Of course, overall RBA is huge challenge from mental and tactical point of view. Requirement here is Emil can keep his level of first serve; 18 aces in 17 games was great performance against Polishman yesterday. Regarding skill sets I would say Ruusuvuori backhand is even bit stronger than Bautista’s. 

As mentioned, in Slam’s best of five periods is in favour of RBA and overall his level is still more consistent and higher quality than Emil’s. Though, Luckily RBA is not playing as high level as year-two ago.

 

Here in Finland we quietly hope and expect Emil has a chance even win this.  Market’s prediction ~65-35 seems fair though. I think there’s little bit better value, once again, in over 3,5 sets (Unibet 1.58). If Emil can go with his highest level in set one, or set two, I expect RBA to drop one for young Finnishman (or even more )

Edited August 31, 2021 by partio

[vvararu]

Any idea about Cecchinato to beat Svajda @1.34 as a banker? I agree that italian is not very consistent… still he won over Sandgren on hard (than lost 1:2 to Koepfer) and Svajda is far from both opponents quality-wise. More than that, it seems that he did not play since june.

[CzechPunter]

He should win, but Svajda isn't a complete no-talent.

[Torque]

It's a pass for me. Cecchinato isn't to be trusted on hard courts, or even clay for that matter. Beating Sandgren is no big deal as he's in no form at all. Also, there's no such thing as a banker in tennis. Short odds get turned over every day. Even if he was ten to one on, it wouldn't be a banker. It could still lose.

[four-leaf]

2 hours ago, vvararu said:

Any idea about Cecchinato to beat Svajda @1.34 as a banker? I agree that italian is not very consistent… still he won over Sandgren on hard (than lost 1:2 to Koepfer) and Svajda is far from both opponents quality-wise. More than that, it seems that he did not play since june.

Marco Cecchinato has never won a match in a gs outside clay so in other words he is pretty useless on hardcourt and grass. Cecchinato is an extreme claycourt specialist and I would say Svajda should be able to capitalize on any mistakes coming from this italian.

[darko08]

On 8/27/2021 at 5:19 PM, darko08 said:

Kevin Anderson (vs. Vesely) + Bublik (vs. Hanfmann) at 1.74 with betfair

Won

On 8/27/2021 at 5:19 PM, darko08 said:

McDonald (vs. Goffin) + Opelka (vs Kwon) at 2.15 with William Hill

Won

On 8/27/2021 at 5:19 PM, darko08 said:

McNally (+6.5 Games) to beat Karolina Pliskova at 1.72 with bet365

Won

On 8/27/2021 at 5:19 PM, darko08 said:

Ramos to beat Pouille at 1.66 with bet365

Won. Pouille was serving to win the match 3-1 but he choked. Ramos played better but he wasted 13 BPs (6-19) while Pouille converted almost every single one he had (3-7)

On 8/27/2021 at 5:19 PM, darko08 said:

Raducanu to beat Brady at 2.10 with bet365

Void. Brady retired due to her foot injury. Raducanu has beat Voegele (LL) in 2 sets.

Really happy to announce that I have won my last 10 bets here (10/10 in the last 2 weeks!)

On 8/27/2021 at 5:19 PM, darko08 said:

Medvedev to Reach the SF - Yes at 1.61 with bet365

This one still alive (I'm very optimistic about this one). The odds have dropped. Cilic/Fokina/Isner out.

If I find some bets that I like I will post them.

Edited August 31, 2021 by darko08

[neilovan]

9 hours ago, neilovan said:

Back for more punishment after yesterday. 

Had Rebecca Petersen to beat Mertens and she blew it, leading 6-3 and 5-2 serving for the match. Just a bizarre game, in which she was dominant and did not win.

My feeling in the big draw tournaments is that there is plenty of low hanging fruit that can be used to make decent 6-9 legged bets, especially in the early rounds.

Obviously, anybody can lose but I like this 9 legger.

Galfi, Dalma v Martic, Petra 2-Way Odds (12) 2   1.44 Kostyuk, Marta v Sakkari, Maria

2-Way Odds (12) 2   1.38

Pliskova, Karolina v Mcnally, Catherine

2-Way Odds (12) 1   1.10

Moutet, Corentin v Travaglia, Stefano

2-Way Odds (12) 1   1.56

Raducanu, Emma v Voegele, Stefanie

2-Way Odds (12) 1    1.15

Barty, Ashleigh v Zvonareva, Vera

Correct Set Score 2:0   1.20

Schmiedlova, Anna-Karolina v Krueger, Ashlyn

Correct Set Score 2:0  1.24

Bucsa, Cristina v Teichmann, Jil

2-Way Odds (12) 2   1.19

Kvitova, Petra v Hercog, Polona

2-Way Odds (12) 1    1.17

So 3 legs are a little risky for me (Moutet, Sakkari and Martic). Krueger done great to get into main draw, but this is a huge step up in opponent. My algorithm puts Sakkari way in front regarding serving and returning ability. Sakkari has played 9 matches against opponents ranked 50+ and has won 8 matches. Martic is a seasoned pro, who doesn't beat herself. She also dominates the serving stats here, and its again a big step up from challenger level from Galfi.

I'm prepared for slightky more risk in the men's choices, simply because it's best of 5 and class should prevail. For me not a huge amount between Moutet and Travaglia, but I do like the fact that Travaglia lost quite badly to Ymer at Winston Salem. At the Cinncinati masters Moutet beat both Popyrin and Pospisil and I think it sets him up well here.

Interested to hear your views as to which horse is gonna poop the bed

Best of luck to you.

. 

 

Schmiedlova butchers it, leading a set and 4-2

[Torque]

4 hours ago, Torque said:

Short odds get turned over every day. Even if he was ten to one on, it wouldn't be a banker. It could still lose.

And to illustrate the point, Carreno-Busta just lost. Was about ten to one on before the start, won the first two sets at which point you probably couldn't have backed him at 1.01 on the exchanges, then loses the next three sets including the final set from 6-3 up in the decisive breaker. Madness, but it goes to show there is literally no such thing as a banker.

[vvararu]

44 minutes ago, Torque said:

And to illustrate the point, Carreno-Busta just lost. Was about ten to one on before the start, won the first two sets at which point you probably couldn't have backed him at 1.01 on the exchanges, then loses the next three sets including the final set from 6-3 up in the decisive breaker. Madness, but it goes to show there is literally no such thing as a banker.

Agree. Watched this match. I think Busta tanked 3rd set, lost the 4th being too relaxed and had a real bad luck in the tie-breaker. Also, Cressy hammered aces like crazy. 

Anyway, it was supposed to be a banker

[owenclass]

Well I'm finding it hard to back the mens matches having four sets. Maybe Wednesday will be different 

Edited August 31, 2021 by owenclass

[CzechPunter]

Well, now that Pablo Carreno-Busta is out, Djokovic has nothing to fear!

[CzechPunter]

Facundo Bagnis to beat Marco Trungelliti at 1.76 with Pinnacle

I like Bagnis in this spot, he looked good in his first match and Trungelliti feels a bit overrated just because of that big win. It was a big win, no doubt, but Fokina cooperated and the qualfiying results were nowhere near as good from Trungelliti.

[vvararu]

My low-odds compilation for today:

Osaka to beat Danilovic ~1.07

Svitolina to beat Masarova ~1.09

Dimitrov to win at least a set against Popyrin ~1.11

Bagnis to win at least a set against Trungelliti ~1.18

Bautista Agut to win at least a set against Ruusuvuori ~1.12

Total 1.71

 

Osaka is just quality-wise better than Danilovic and I expect her to come back to her winning paths after the period being out of tennis tournaments.

Svitolina is in good shape (won Chicago WTA last week) and there is a too big gap between her and Masarova. It seems that marriage with Monfils had a good impact on her game.

Dimitrov seemed very convincing to me against RBA and Bublik last week. He is physically OK. I can see him choking at some points in the match but I cannot see him losing 0:3.

Bagnis showed a good game against Daniel. More convincing that Trungelliti's gain against Davidovic Fokina. As @CzechPunter mentioned above, he should prevail in this one. I'll go for the safest bet here 'cause I don't see him losing 0:3

RBA... not much to say about him. Such a hard-working guy who feels good in 5 set configuration. Should win the match but I'll take him to win at least a set.

[four-leaf]

What do you all think about Elina Svitolinas upcoming match today? And what thoughts do you all have about Nakashima?

I'm sitting on a double selection containing Svitolina -6.5 games at 2.02 and Nakashima -2.5 sets at 2.60 both with Unibet I've seen both Svitolina and Nakashima playing lately and I just can't understand why the odds on both my selections are as high as evens and more. Nakashima played as if he was invincible first round when he beat Isner easily 3-0. Regarding Svitolina I think she should get plenty of chances to see off her spanish 22 year old opponent by minimum 7 games margin.

[neilovan]

Just a quick post. 3 inches rain expected in NY today, so only play on Louis Armstrong and Arthur Ashe.  My brother had  free tickets (4 rows off the court), but its a real mission to get up to NY from Philadelphia,, and then drive home late in pissing rain. Also 35000 people packed into two 'indoor courts' makes covid possibilities.

Edited September 1, 2021 by neilovan

[four-leaf]

Ok I see, so there is going to be rain which will affect my two selections on the betslip. Svitolina plays on court 17 and Nakashima on court 11 so heavy rain makes matches on outdoor courts postponed so I might be able to see both matches after I come home from my floorballtraining.

[neilovan]

1 minute ago, four-leaf said:

Ok I see, so there is going to be rain which will affect my two selections on the betslip. Svitolina plays on court 17 and Nakashima on court 11 so heavy rain makes matches on outdoor courts postponed so I might be able to see both matches after I come home from my floorballtraining.

Doubt there will be any outside matches today. They are gonna get 3 inches of rain. Cats and dogs.

[neilovan]

O. Danilovic (SRB) vs.N. Osaka (JPN) [3]

D. Koepfer (GER) vs. D. Medvedev (RUS) [2]

S. Stephens (USA) vs. C. Gauff (USA) [21]

A. Mannarino (FRA)vs.S. Tsitsipas (GRE) [3]

 

 

A. Petkovic (GER)vs.G. Muguruza (ESP) [9]

V. Azarenka (BLR) [18] vs.J. Paolini (ITA)

F. Tiafoe (USA)vs.G. Pella (ARG)

K. Anderson (RSA)vs.D. Schwartzman (ARG) [11]

A. Kerber (GER) [16]vs.A. Kalinina (UKR)

 

are the matches on the main courts . Pretty lousy viewing in my opinion. Looks like blowout after blowout.

I think Stephens can definitely beat Gauff amd Petkovic has a decent chance against Muguruza. Would take them both separate as low priced outsiders. Jabuer, Cornet and Siniakova all beat her, and Petkovic is not far off these players.

Medvedev cleans up, Mannarino demolished, Paolini beaten easily, Andersen will also lose to Schawartzman, and Tiafoe too strong for Pella.

Edited September 1, 2021 by neilovan

[four-leaf]

11 minutes ago, neilovan said:

Doubt there will be any outside matches today. They are gonna get 3 inches of rain. Cats and dogs.

 

I can see on this norweigan forecast how mutch it's gonna rain so I think I can forget to see my two selections concluded in Queens today.

[liquidglass]

2 hours ago, four-leaf said:

What do you all think about Elina Svitolinas upcoming match today? And what thoughts do you all have about Nakashima?

I'm sitting on a double selection containing Svitolina -6.5 games at 2.02 and Nakashima -2.5 sets at 2.60 both with Unibet I've seen both Svitolina and Nakashima playing lately and I just can't understand why the odds on both my selections are as high as evens and more. Nakashima played as if he was invincible first round when he beat Isner easily 3-0. Regarding Svitolina I think she should get plenty of chances to see off her spanish 22 year old opponent by minimum 7 games margin.

We all know pretty much about Nakashima and his potential plus home advantage. But to take him -2.5 sets against a player that is well under the radar cannot be very prudent. Trust me!!

[neilovan]

my weather predictions are like my tennis predictions...

[darko08]

2 hours ago, four-leaf said:

What do you all think about Elina Svitolinas upcoming match today? And what thoughts do you all have about Nakashima?

I'm sitting on a double selection containing Svitolina -6.5 games at 2.02 and Nakashima -2.5 sets at 2.60 both with Unibet I've seen both Svitolina and Nakashima playing lately and I just can't understand why the odds on both my selections are as high as evens and more. Nakashima played as if he was invincible first round when he beat Isner easily 3-0. Regarding Svitolina I think she should get plenty of chances to see off her spanish 22 year old opponent by minimum 7 games margin.

The main mistake is backing him based on how he played against a servebot. I saw Isner in Cincinnati and his mobility was worse than usual, probably due to physical problems. I haven't seen any of these players here, but backing Brandon based on how good he was against Isner is not a good idea (Molcan is a completely different player).
In relation the other bet, Masarova's biggest weapon is her serve. The difference between her and Svitolina is big, but if she has a really good day with her serve she can destroy that handicap.

[neilovan]

yet another walkover gets me nothing . Dimitrov quitting at 2 sets down and 0-4. They really should pay out this crap. Must be my 8th lost bet in the last 10 days like this.

Edited September 1, 2021 by neilovan

[CzechPunter]

Oscar Otte to beat Denis Kudla at 2.75 with William Hill

Despite some good wins, Kudla is hardly a top player. Otte has been steady all year long and the win over Sonego was just fantastic, it's bound to lift his spirits and perhaps propel him to new heights. I don't expect an easy match for Otte, by no means, but I think 2.75 is decent value. I'd have him somewhere around 2.30 myself, just a slight underdog that has a deceivingly strong service action that's consistent even in long matches. The handicaps don't look appealing at all, it's either outright or nothing.