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Quick introduction, I'm starting new on this forum and thought it would be a good place to share with my friends whatever knowledge I've acquired over the past so many years. I'm South African as my u

Opelka to beat Munar at 1.80 with bet365 Opelka impressed all us with his run in Rome. He beat Gasquet, Musetti, Karatsev and Delbonis, all of them in straight sets. After that he lost against Cu

Why the last pick @darko08? Daniil Medvedev (-1.5 sets) to beat Christian Garin at 1.88 with Sbobet I had Medvedev to beat Garin in Madrid and he failed there, but much has changed since the

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3 hours ago, AgaRadwanska said:

Can anyone envision anyone other than Barty, Iga or Sabalenka winning the women's FO this year? pretty much everyone else is either in horrible form this clay season or coming back from injury. 

My dark horse to run deep is the on-fire Paula Badosa. 

 

Coco Gauff ofcourse, might be to early for her but 17, ranked 30 going higher on monday after triumphing in Parma unless they don't update the rankings next week. She won the junior French open so why not.

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3 hours ago, Striker said:

As for the Women....Maria Sakkari

Improving Greek player who though yet to make a big splash in one of the four slams has the tools to get the job done

Each Way @ 50-1 with  Boylesports

I like Maria, but based on what I've seen of her in 2021, she won't get very far. Drummed by Gauff in Rome, beaten by Muchova, Krejikcova, Mladenovic etc recently. She even struggled to put away Hercog earlier this month.

Too many errors, and struggles on serve. I've seen her lose her head on so many occasions, so just can't see her coming past any of the big favorites - who seem to have the emotional side of the game a little more...nailed down. 

imo she is 50-1 for a reason. 

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6 hours ago, AgaRadwanska said:

I like Maria, but based on what I've seen of her in 2021, she won't get very far. Drummed by Gauff in Rome, beaten by Muchova, Krejikcova, Mladenovic etc recently. She even struggled to put away Hercog earlier this month.

Too many errors, and struggles on serve. I've seen her lose her head on so many occasions, so just can't see her coming past any of the big favorites - who seem to have the emotional side of the game a little more...nailed down. 

imo she is 50-1 for a reason. 

Agree clay form this season not great, but in defeats to Gauff, Muchova & Kvitova she lost the first set each time before taking each match to a deciding set. Needs to avoid those slow starts for sure

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19 hours ago, Striker said:

Also think with no dominant player in the women's game, its worth chancing an outsider or two in the Grand Slams this year

I'd argue that Ash Barty is slowly becoming the dominant player in women's tennis - you may have noticed her making making every final this year? It's not luck.

Because a player is 50-1 or 500-1 does not make them automatic ''value'' at RG. There's a reason Donna Vekic or Jo Konta are 600-1 or whatever, and that reason is that they just aren't going to win a grand slam. It would be like North Macedonia (780.0s) winning Euro 2020. The players you've quoted - I mean, have you actually seen them play recently?

Finding value isn't as easy as ''well she's a big price, and 'Penko did win this that one time!''

I agree Swiatek odds seem short, but those odds based on how good her performances have been recently coupled with her dominance of RG less than a year ago. I do not think she's over-hyped at all. 

It takes a LOT for someone to get past Barty, Swiatek or a fired up Sabalenka nowadays. most players are drawing dead or close to, and most of the 'big names' are in horrible form (Karolina Pliskova, Serena, Osaka, Kenin).

I honestly don't know where the value lies is in terms of the long odds this year. I would have said Halep, but she's pulled out. I would suggest Kvitova at 32.0 or Badosa at 40.0 (based on their draws) as dark horses. 

Edited by AgaRadwanska
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Tsitsipas to win the 4th quarter at 1.72 with bet365
Laaksonen to beat Hanfmann at 2.20 with bet365
Vesely vs Khachanov - Over 36.5 Games at 1.83 with bet365
Lepchenko (-2.5 Games) to beat Shuai Zhang at 1.83 with bet365

I think Tsitsipas has good draw. He will play Chardy in the 1st round and P.Martinez or Korda in the 2nd one. Isner is the most dangerous player he could face in the 3rd round. Raonic, Tiafoe or Busta in the 4th round. In the QFs he could face Dimitrov, Garin, Opelka or Medvedev. IMO, if Tsitsipas plays as he has done during this year he should beat all these players.
Laaksonen beat Van Assche, Varillas and JM Cerundolo in the qualification. I saw the last one and I really liked how Laaksonen played. IMO, both players have a similar level (their best ever ranking is exactly the same -93-) but Hanfmann's last results are not good. He retired from Munich due to a neck injury. After that, he won against Griekspoor but he lost against Menezes and Nakashima, both in straight sets. Laaksonen should be a slight favorite considering both players' last matches.
I think Khachanov shouldn't be with these odds against Vesely. He did not convince me at all this year and he was destroyed by Norrie in his last match (6-1, 6-1). The only time these players have played each other was here in 2020. It was in the 2nd round and Khachanov won, but it was a very tight match (6-1, 6-7, 7-6, 7-6). 
Lepchenko has beat Rakhimova, Barthel and Friedsam in the qualification. I'm surprised with how much ease she beat Barthel (6-1, 7-5) and Friedsam (6-1, 6-3) in her last 2 matches. Shuai's best surface is hard, by far, and he has a 1-6 record on clay this year. The only player she has beat is Doi, who has a negative record on clay (51-57). She comes from a heavy defeat against Cirstea in Strasbourg (6-2, 6-1).

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Right, it's that day of the year again! Good luck to everyone!

Can't say that I'm going into the Grand Slam on the back of excellent form, but I think that I might be able to contribute as always. Looking at the draw, I picked quite a few bets actually, so let's hope that they'll end up well.

Stefanos Tsitsipas to win the 4th quarter at 1.72 with Bet365  

Henri Laaksonen to beat Yannick Hanfmann at 2.27 with Pinnacle    

First, I agree with @darko08 on these bets, no additional comments.    

Aryna Sabalenka to go further than Naomi Osaka at 1.90 with Bet365  

Paula Badosa to win the 4th quarter at 5.50 with Bet365    

These two bets go more or less together, as I want to oppose Osaka big time. Her recent antics might be noteworthy, but the truth is that she's not good on clay. She's been losing to average players on the surface lately and I don't expect her to stay in Paris for long. In her quarter, Badosa is in the form of her life and could take advantage.  

Angelique Kerber to beat Anhelina Kalinina at 1.66 with Pinnacle    

Kalinina is on a mighty run, but I like Kerber nevertheless here. She's improved from her slump already and could be geared up for a decent run. I'm not sure I trust Kalinina to be only such a small underdog against someone this proven yet.      

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On 5/23/2021 at 12:14 AM, four-leaf said:

Coco Gauff ofcourse, might be to early for her but 17, ranked 30 going higher on monday after triumphing in Parma unless they don't update the rankings next week. She won the junior French open so why not.

Gauff has been playing very well so would be no surprise to see her do well here. Personally tho, I would prefer if she treats this like a warm-up for the big one at SW19 😉

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Badosa (vs. Davis) + Sakkari (vs. Zavatska) + Mertens (vs. Sanders) + Fucsovics (vs. Simon) + Sinner (vs. Herbert) + Nishioka (vs. Tsonga) at 2.32 with bet365

Badosa is 13-2 on clay this year and she has beat big players as Bencic, Barty, Krejcikova, Teichmann or Sevastova. Davis is 3-3 and she has lost her last 2 matches (vs. Kovinic and Alexandrova). Both Sakkari and Mertens play against players who never have been inside the top 100 so I can't imagine them losing. Fucsovics is only 2-4 on clay this year but he plays against a player who is not competitive anymore. Simon is 1-5 on clay this year and he's on a 5 losing streak (Sonego, Andujar, Herbert, Bedene and P.Martinez). Tsonga is 0-2 on clay this year. He has lost against Gerasimov (7-5, 6-1) and Paul (6-3, 6-3). He is miles away from his best form. Maybe he can compete during a couple sets but I can't imagine him winning a 5 set match right now. Nishioka's best surface is hard but he has competed really well on clay this year (7-6). He has beat Cuevas, Krajinovic, Humbert, Monfils and Musetti so a fatty Tsonga should not be a problem. Sinner is 7-5 on clay this year and he has beat some really good players as RBA, Rublev and Karatsev. Herbert is 4-5 on clay this year. This is not his best surface and he's not in his best form so I can't see him winning against Sinner.

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Siniakova (vs. Bouzkova) + Tsitsipas 3-0 (vs. Chardy) at 1.87 with bet365

I add this one. Siniakova is 5-3 on clay this year. She will face her 1st match here confidently after beating Tauson (6-1, 6-3), Serena (7-6, 6-2) and Caroline Garcia (7-5, 6-1) in Parma. She has reached at least the third round in every single edition she has played since 2018. In 2018 she beat Azarenka and Kozlova. In 2019 she beat Rybakina, Sakkari and Naomi Osaka. In 2020 she beat Davis and Pavlyuchenkova. Bouzkova is 1-3 on clay this year. This is not her best surface and she has never reached a 2nd round here. 
Tsitsipas is 16-3 on clay this year and he only has dropped sets against Nadal, Ruud, Djokovic and Musetti. It's very important to win these first matches as quick as possible and I don't see Chardy taking a set from him.

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Cameron Norrie (-1.5 sets) to beat Bjorn Fratangelo at 1.63 with Sbobet

This looks like a very good price to me, even the 1.50 with Unibet is worth it imo. Fratangelo has made it through the qualifiers, but the level of his opposition was largely laughable compared to Norrie, who made it all the way down to the finals in Lyon and competed reasonably well against Tsitsipas. A huge gap in class at the moment and Fratangelo shouldn't be able to steal more than a set.

Daniel Altmeier to beat Rune Holger Vitus Nodskov at 1.88 with Pinnacle

This is for Biella 8 Challenger. Yep, Biella 8, that's a lot of tennis. In any case, I saw Altmeier last week and he looked strong against Kotov and Gombos, can't blame him for losing against Gasquet. Nodskov is competing in a smaller event as I write this, he'll play the finals later on today, but he dropped sets against much weaker opposition and the fatigue might also get to him. Altmeier is also the slightly better player overall imo.

On a side note, this is also worth knowing:

image.png

 

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Nice tips, good luck to everyone. I˙m also playing Khachanov-Vesely over games, it was like first pair my eyes caught :) here are two more tips from me.

Van De Zandschulp - Hurkacz  over 36.5 games @1.83 with Marathonbet

Hurkacz is favorite in this match, but I think we will have a close one. He managed to win only against Fabbiano in Monte Carlo on clay this season and retired last match against Musetti. Last year he lost on RG against Sandgren in 5 setter. Van de Zandschulp made through qualifications, beating Marchenko easily in last round. He has pretty good clay season and I think we will see at least 3 or 4 thight sets in this match.

Safiulin - Taberner over 3.5 set @1.68 with Marathonbet

Clash of 2 qualifiers. Safiullin suprised me with his recent results; Andreozzi, Broady and Kovalik are decent wins, so it looks like RG courts suits him this year. Taberner on the other hand has many more matches on clay, he had no trouble at all to pass Q. Also his opponents were not so good I would say. He is big favorite today, but I see this match much more close. Safiullin had good numbers on point won on his serve (67%+ in every match), so he should take at least set today and use every drop in Taberner´s game.

 

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Amanda Anisimova to beat Veronika Kudermetova at 2.00 with bet365 

I think the young American girl has been immensely underestimated here. Yes, she has certainly failed to kick on since her breakthrough in 2019, but a very unfortunate event in her life affected her so much - the shock death of her father and long-time coach Anisimov, who suffered a heart attack just before the 2019 USO. This family tragedy, combined with the fact that we then entered the COVID-19 era stalled her further rise in women's tour. It seems that it's just a matter of time for Amanda to reach new highs and achieve big things in the sport. 

Last year she reached the 3R of the FO, losing to Halep (top seed) in straight sets. Recently in Parma, she won her first two matches (1R-Paolini, 2R-Smiedlova) in straight sets before losing to eventual champion Coco Gauff. Kudermetova looks to be in good form as well, as she defeated Mertens and Caroline Garcia before losing to Barty in straight sets in Rome. Veronika has respectable results on clay. She doesn't possess the same firepower on her shots as her opponent but she's solid from the baseline. The sensible thing for her to do will be to stay in the rallies as much as she can, forcing errors from Amanda's racquet. However, I feel that Anisimova will turn up very motivated and thirsty to win today, which might be enough to control the fate of this encounter. Her forehand is so versatile, it allows her to create all the angles she wants from the back of the court. Her recent losses to Sakkari in Madrid and Svitolina in Rome shouldn't disappoint her too much as they both are very strong players. I'm gonna go with Amanda in Paris guys.

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thiem is close to 1st round exit from the tournament. cant believe how he won the US open. had novak not being suspended he would have been the winner. in any case thiem wont survive for too long.

kerber has to retire now.

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On 5/29/2021 at 5:42 PM, CzechPunter said:

Right, it's that day of the year again! Good luck to everyone!

Can't say that I'm going into the Grand Slam on the back of excellent form, but I think that I might be able to contribute as always. Looking at the draw, I picked quite a few bets actually, so let's hope that they'll end up well.

Stefanos Tsitsipas to win the 4th quarter at 1.72 with Bet365  

Henri Laaksonen to beat Yannick Hanfmann at 2.27 with Pinnacle    

First, I agree with @darko08 on these bets, no additional comments.    

Aryna Sabalenka to go further than Naomi Osaka at 1.90 with Bet365  

Paula Badosa to win the 4th quarter at 5.50 with Bet365    

These two bets go more or less together, as I want to oppose Osaka big time. Her recent antics might be noteworthy, but the truth is that she's not good on clay. She's been losing to average players on the surface lately and I don't expect her to stay in Paris for long. In her quarter, Badosa is in the form of her life and could take advantage.  

Angelique Kerber to beat Anhelina Kalinina at 1.66 with Pinnacle    

Kalinina is on a mighty run, but I like Kerber nevertheless here. She's improved from her slump already and could be geared up for a decent run. I'm not sure I trust Kalinina to be only such a small underdog against someone this proven yet.      

you always do well in grandslams. gud luck

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