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mark22

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Everything posted by mark22

  1. had a bet on Korda vs. Norrie in Delray Beach (18.02.) and watched the match. Korda had everything under control in 3rd set, 5:4 and serve for the win.. He got last service games by ease, the got broken like noob.. later he lost 7:4 in TB. this one is even worse
  2. My point of view on today´s finals. Last few days were not that good as previous weeks, so just an accumulator today. Anyway, i watched some matches and highlights so feeling is good. FAA - Rublev 1 @1.63 Rematch from Amsterdam 8 days ago. Felix continues his journey to 2nd title in two weeks. If you look at the scoreline, he could win there even 2:0. He is more reliable than Rublev, who lost sets in every match here in Marseille. I think this will be crucial today - consistency. Rublev can take sets from any player on ATP tour, but Felix will play smart and take every UE from him, so Rublev will have to risk everything and this can end up fast. FFA had very though opponent in semifinal - Safiulin, who played a great tournament. Draper - van Rijthoven over 21.5 games @1.63 Challenger Forli is played on hard indoor surface. van Rijthoven is my common ´´customer´´ on that type of bets. He can play tiebreaks with low quality players, but at the same time he is very dangerous for most of average players on hard courts. He is even favourite today, but I wouldn´t underestimate Draper, who showed his skills on main tournaments and won this one about month ago. Both players have high ace rate, and this odds for 21.5 games limit is a must bet. Norrie - Opelka over 22.5 games @1.56 Opelka amazed me in this two weeks. If he wasn´t playing with Milmann 3 hours I would definitely take him as a winner here. He had long matches here and fatigue can be a factor. Still he is pretty much unbreakable on his serve and Norrie shouldn˝t be favourite here. I watched his match against Korda, who outplayed him in 2nd and end of 3rd set. He had service for the match but then by some strange errors he throw it all away. Bad match from both players. Norrie raised his form in last weeks, we have to admit that. I expect some easier service holds for both players and at least one tiebreak. Alcaraz - Schwartzman 1 @1.37 I had a bet on Ruud in last weeks final, where Schwartzman even took first set, but then Ruud completely demolished him in 3rd set. When I thought he recovered well and he will take a walk to title this week, he already had big troubles on this way - Cerundolo and Andujar. I´m wondering what can he even do against Alcaraz, who is playing outstanding in Rio. Berettini and Fognini are his last trophies and you can´t imagine much tougher challenge on clay than this 2 Italians. His game is full of winners and good service performance, so I thinf Schwartzman will have very hard job to be competitive, since he has no real weapons at the moment.
  3. Opelka is much faster than Isner, had better backhand and almost 45% ace rate! This is insane.. Isner had his chances in TB, but lost it by stupid mistakes, which Opelka didn't do. So for me completely deserved win for younger American. Now I watched also Brooksby highlights, he played for almost 3 hours, saving MP.. he got it in the end. Now he has much less recovery time than Opelka. He beat him in Antwerp (simillar conditions), where Opelka didn't have single BP. I think the same can happen to Brooksby today, Opelka should get more aces here. Brooksby plays good against tall players. Hard to predict, but i would say over 25.5 games and Opelka to win.
  4. when i saw 25.5 games line this was a banker, but my bookie offered only 26.5 which is automatically line to not play as you need 3 sets also in play offer was bad (TB only @1.40). Opelka looks better in long points, but he also had some lucky shots in TB of set 1. Let see how second one finishes. I˝m rather watching Sonego:Schwartzman, Italian made great comeback!
  5. after watching some highlights and stats Azarenka looks very good here, Sakkari seems in better shape and especially quicker around the court than Pegula.. Berettini´s bombs will be too much to handle for PCB i think, he had a day off so I hope he recovered well. It will be interesting to see where he can reach now when there is no Djokovic who stopped him regulary on GS last year Doubles side: Kokkinakis/Kyrgios seems to have a lot of chemistry and won against Mektic/Pavic was no coincidence. Their serve stats was great (17 aces) and Behar/Escobar are not heavier oponents at all, they should advance in front of home crowd.
  6. I never said winning on low odds is not possible. But every experienced betting player knows that sometimes is @1.80 bet more reliable than some @1.30. If you get accumulator of 3 bets with that odds you have 2.2 or 5.8 odds ticket. Probability that one will go wrong is almost the same on each ticket! Now you can calculate profit from both bet triple and see where I´m pointing.. Sure you can have luck, I had it too sometimes.. but don´t worry it will pass when you´ll start losing you will lost all profit and more. And then you will start thinking why the hell low odds don´t make you money despite you´re winning tickets. It´s about finding bookmakers wrong odds or lines and earn on them because of your knowledge, not finding the best @1.10 winner! And that is what this forum should be about..
  7. He started with bad talk.. i have a right to comment his betting, like he comments most of everyone´s else posts with no need. Of course I don´t place his bets, don´t worry but I´m saying he makes thread messed up for anyone looking for QUALITY tips and opinions! When there is GS going on, everyone like him is smart as ´´f***´´ about tennis, when there are challengers etc. there is few posts. Why? Because they know only top 50 players everyone can write essays about Federer and Nadal..
  8. Second, fifth, tenth bet in a day who cares then? give ONE bet that will be winner. @CzechPunter should be an example to everyone writing something here and I contribute posts like he does, when I do. I see you´re also nonstop editing your posts no one does it since it´s really necessary.. Doesn´t matter what you calculate, if someone follows you blindly this week he would already lose everything. Betting on 5-10 pairs with odds 1.70 is just gambling, and anyone who does this can´t go in with low stake.. And as I can see I´m not the only one bothered with your posts.
  9. hahaha, what a suprise huh? with you rude answer when I just told my opinion on your strategy, what will you say now? you´re gonna have a lot of stress days with your betting writing 100 posts with your ´´analysis´´ of odds 1.15 doesn´t help anyone. And I think it´s also not point of this forum, when you´ll write some VALUE bets and reasons for it, then you will have my respect. If betting was clicking on the favorites, everyone would be rich.. think about that
  10. @neilovan you made this thread completely messed up with tournament not even started, with your @1.10 picks and even football picks? Yeah, those accumulators with favorites maybe passed like 5-10 years ago, but in recent years GS tournaments became very hard to predict as many suprises comes up in 1st rounds. Some players didn´t play for more than one month. Even at 5-10 pairs combo 1 ALWAYS defeats you. Option is only cashout if you are lucky to get most of matches through. Otherwise I think there is no bigger value in grand slam matches since odds drop very fast on good bets. This 2 weeks of new season went good for me, but I´ll start here very carefully because of the reasons I mentioned. Here are some picks. Harris should be to strong for Vukic, but he is in good form and I expect some close sets. Otte already played in AUS this year, while Tseng didn`t and has not muxh experience in mathes like this. Bagnis and Garin could go in 5 sets here, I think Bagnis could even win the match given the current form and Garin is known as ´´slow starter´´ on GS. Rune and Kwon had tough match on clay last season and I expect nothing different here. Rune had bad luck in facing Moutet twice in a row, Kwon is favourite by odds and form, but I just can´t see 3:0 win for any of them. GL. Harris, Lloyd To Win + Total Games Over 32.5 Otte, Oscar To Win + Total Sets Under 4.5 F.Bagnis vs C.Garin Total Games: Over 36.5 H.Rune vs S.Kwon Total Sets: Over 3.5
  11. I agree with you here, before match Brooksby: van de Zandschulp i looked at outrights, former was @19 to win tournament, Brooksby wasn˝t even on the list. Now I´m looking at the same table and Brooksby is 3.80 to win?! Sinner on example is 1st with 2.90. Crazy @carina007 I played on Cilic in last round, where odds were great to take. In 1st set against Paul he had many troubles and it could go either way. In 2nd he showed some better game, but Paul is poor server.. I expected maybe even easier win from Cilic, he makes stupid mistakes where he got the point already won, and this could cost him against better players. Now he is only @1.44, he should win but also over games are likely to happen here.
  12. Friiitz what a match again.. didn´t have balls to play him just because Zverev f.. me up few times, when he was big favorite and I was against him. HC line 4.5 seemed too low if you look at Zverev win odds - 1.15-1.20. In match against Monfils he looked very good, unfortonately I just missed MP from Zverev, but otherwise he hardly could play better. Now he´s 1.53 against Basilasvili, no value I think..
  13. This Indian Wells results are strange, I´ll rather wait for next weeks when indoor hard CH continues.. where we can find better value bets just one for today. Melzer - Tirante 1 @2.22 with Marathonbet Tirante won challenger in Ambato, where he beat Austrian too. Last week Melzer got revenge by easy win (6:4 6:2). Tirante had problems in 2:1 win against Seyboth Wild in 1st round here in Santiago and it looks like he dropped in form a little bit. This week they play on same courts, so this should be advantage for Melzer. In 1st round he won against Jarry in close match. In may he returned after 2 year break from tennis and now he shows again, how good player he is. Odds should be at least 1.75 on Melzer.
  14. Maaan, looks like you have too much time to stick in EVERY word I comment. I just commented Punter's pick of Azarenka:Pegula match, and at the end maybe my comments and alerts helped somebody to change the pick. Because my comment was BEFORE match and it was HELPFUL. Why do you even bother if I didn't say a word about you? Read it and go on.. I often place my bets literraly in last minute, because I just don't have enough time. So also my picks and comments often come late. But to analyse matches and picks is crucial for me to see where I did it wrong, exclude luck here. Sorry to like posts here 🤣 seemed like a good pick, I also like yours so I don't see any problem here.. Peace.
  15. Azarenka:Pegula 6:4 6:2 as you can see my doubts were on point obviously.. I comment only what I see by myself, Sasnovich was very far from winning the match, no need for you to "analyse" every point of the match. In 1st set Azarenka gifted her 2 or 3 points at 5:2, so she wouldn't even come to BP in that game. In 2nd set she gave up many chances again, so it's luck that she even covered HC. I don't know how she played against Kvitova, but it looks that even Svitolina was awful against Pegula.
  16. That is true, I also take bet on players that have high 2nd serve points won, and as I saw later.. this was second worse 2nd serve points won in last 50 matches for Sasnovich! Yeah it doesn´t mean much if you are close in every game but you lose it unfortunately.. after 1st set I didn´t have much hope to win bet, void at least. Saw some of Pegula-Svitolina highlights, Pegula really looked reliable.
  17. Took the bet on Sasnovich from you 2 guys and I have to comment now since I´m more in ATP and feeling about bet was good I watched first set. What Azarenka showed was pretty good and way different than you commented her previous match. Fortunatelly match ended with void bet, but it could easily be 6:2 6:3 and way from HC line.. what I also noticed like you mentioned, Sasnovich serve was very bad and she lost most of points because of it, in rallies she was even with Azarenka or sometimes even better. Both H2H matches with Pegula were close, but Pegula looks excellent from statistic side of all matches here.. well, I might be in that bet with you again good luck!
  18. Sinner - Krajinovic; Krajinovic +4 games HC @1.65 with Marathonbet Young Italian defends title from last year, but he didn´t convince me this time. He was behind in both sets against Duckworth, but managed to get close 2:0 win. His numbers on service games are not that high like when he´s in top form. Krajinovic had 2 great matches here, yesterday he lost set against Majchrzak, but still showed good performance in 3rd set. He had some very good results on hard indoor in last years and I think he has chances today to at least cover HC. Vesely - Laaksonen 1 @2.08 with WWin Both players got some big wins this week and probably winner of this match will take the title in Orleans. As in Sofia court is fast here and this is advantage for tall Czech. Yesterday he beat Gasquet, he serves many aces and ends points quickly. Laaksonen will not get many BP I suppose and for me he is not favorite. 2 years back they played in simillar match on CH in France and Vesely got an easy win. He can repeat this today if his performance stays on the same level-
  19. Majchrzak - Wolf over 22.5 games @1.78 with WWin I predict close match here. Majchrzak is often on my over picks and rarely dissapoints. He has good serve (10 aces in 1st round) and poor return game against players of same game plan. I don´t know Wolf´s game at all, but he had some good matches this summer against Tiafoe, Isner, Nakashima and I wouldn´t underestimate him, against Istomin he won 92% 1st serves. Gaston - Bemelmans; Bemelmans over 9.5 games @1.75 with WWin French is big favorite in this match with @1.30, he beat Kopriva who played only on clay for last 5 months. Also Gaston came here straight from clay and his game is optimal for clay courts, his record on hard is nothing special. I disagree with bookies, since Bemelmans played some good matches in last 2 years when he was underdog and he is better players than ranking shows at the moment. He served 12 aces against de Jong and if he will hold this level, Gaston will have troubles beating him.
  20. Don´t forget this is pre-grand slam tournament, where some players will save their power for US Open.. so 1st round is just guessing, you will see who means seriously after 2 or 3 matches. GIron has very low odds, if you are sure than take him with some HC. Second bet.. in my opinion this goes in over only if there will be 3 sets. Rinderknech is miles above Simon this year, if his serve will work Simon has no chances. Simon can only count on bad day form and many UE from Rinderknech, also thight sets are not very likely between that kinf of player profiles. Good luck.
  21. Challenger Lexington: Escobedo - King 2 @3.64 with Marathonbet Darian King made return after 1 year without tennis in February. He didn't have much success till this tournament, where he obviously found form with quality that he definetly has. He was already 106. on ATP rankings 4 years ago. Here he won against very good Cressy in last round, he was also big underdog in another match. While I expected much lower odds on him, this is a must try for me. Escobedo didn't show much this year, his last match against Sid Subervi was very average on his serve, King could use it by easier hold of his service games. Good luck.
  22. Period after Wimbledon is actually very sucessfull for me, but as I played mostly combos and some lower odds didn´t post here lately much. As I also see, most people post/comment just when there is GS, but don´t even know players outside top 100. Which is sad for serious bettors, since it´s easier to find some value as you are familiar from all tournaments from GS down to challengers. And as I learned in previous month, grand slams are no ´´safer´´ option to bet as they were like some years ago. Here is one tip for today. Zverev - Chardy; Chardy +4.5 games @2.04 with WWin Chardy has an excellent tournament here. He managed to win against Barrios, Karatsev and yesterday Broady, who has good season. Zverev had only 2BP against Basilashvili, but used them both to get close win. Chardy fired 16 aces per match, which will be tough even for Zverev if he doesn´t feel good on return. As we see from H2H matches, no match was easy for the German and I expect Chardy to cover HC line.
  23. this is true, well for now he somehow stays on some level. it's good to see we both won 👍
  24. I wouldn´t expect Viola feels at home on clay at all, but anyway I checked the data. Just not to be ´´smartass´´ and then be wrong at the end. As you can see below, Viola has better win ratio on hard (51%) than on clay (42%). Matches (122-119) > Time Span: Career; Surface: Hard; Level: All ATP, Qualifying, Challengers, CH Qualies Matches (106-144) > Time Span: Career; Surface: Clay; Level: All ATP, Qualifying, Challengers, CH Qualies As I watched his match also in Umag few years back, I can say he has bad defence, he relys on his strong serve mostly and ends up points after few shots. This is the only match caught in my eyes today, before I checked forum hehe Viola had some hard matches in last weeks, so I think he can keep it close, and line is pretty low. over 21.5 games @1.77 with WWin
  25. Anderson to win + 20.5 games @2.25 with Marathonbet Yesterday matches went as I predicted. Brooksby won after losing in 2nd set, Anderson was set and break down.. but then turned gear up and won with great game. In finals I bet on man who has much more experience in big matches, but I expect at least one TB and over games in this low line. Gaio - Vilella 1 @2.17 with Marathonbet Finals of Todi challenger. Gaio played excellent against Etcheverry yesterday, who was in good form lately. He showed no weakness on his serve, while he made many breaks on oponent strong service game. Vilella had a long match against Brazilian youngster yesterday. He lost second set, otherwise he showed nice form here. I bet on Gaio, who shouldn't be underdog, he has 7 matches in CH finals, while Vilella only 2. Gaio can count on home crowd also.
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