French Open 2020

[JetBee]

LoL that is. :))) That's a feeling when your first post in the forum was a curse. Halep and Ostapenko both out... No more WTA tips from my side.

Now I wonder shall I tip ATP final here and bet against both guys. That could be hell of a profit.

[Teodore]

Polish power. 

[TomOlej]

Świątek - Trevisan

Mostly when underdog beats favorit, we should call this "favorite fail" but not today. Iga was awesome, she plays like Nadal in the skirt. Halep not make to much mistake, she play regulars but Iga was on higher level. If Iga keep this level playing she can beat everybody. Trevisan shouldn't be too demanding opponent. I watched her duels with Gauff and Bertens. Gauff lost at her own request, she made a lot of mistakes, I think that age and lack of experience overpowered her skills and she lost in her own psyche. Today opponent Bertens wasn't in the best form, about her match against Errani speak everybody - it's was terrible tennis. So Trevisan wins with no-form opponent and with a bit of luck he is in quarterfinal but its over her adventures RG. 

Iga Świątek to win @1.38

[liquidglass]

I guess everybody is still as much pulverized as Halep is. In this very hard-to-phanthom indulgence, there is no such thing as a free lunch in freetown. The bookies are indirectly telling us that there is no place to hide....not even in Swiatek. Tennis is more about matchups than any single individual brilliance. So Swiatek whilst in sublime form may not necessarily be the best thing since sliced bread. The whole field is still loaded with so much talent. I still feel that Ferro and Garcia can find improvement and enter this equation well. Garcia is very error prone but can be systematically clutch once she gets into rhythm. She still has problems closing out big matches and I do not think that will go away easily. Her big for glory can fully take off if she can beat Svitolina. She really should be able to accomplish that somehow. All to play for now in a very even field.

[vvararu]

Hugo Gaston... a new clay star on the scene. This guy is so good to have no rythm that he is capable to piss off even the best players with that.

[CzechPunter]

Jannik Sinner (+2.5 sets) to beat Rafael Nadal at 3.24 with Pinnacle

Sinner has been moving through the field very quietly, but he's been beating some big names along the way, including Goffin and Zverev. He's dropped one set against Nadal's one, but he's faced much sterner opposition. I don't see him winning this, but he's a major talent on clay, with his win over Tsitsipas standing out in that regard. I like the set handicap more than anything else, because something like 1-6 6-3 3-6 1-6 is clearly in play.

[liquidglass]

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Jannik Sinner (+2.5 sets) to beat Rafael Nadal at 3.24 with Pinnacle

Sinner has been moving through the field very quietly, but he's been beating some big names along the way, including Goffin and Zverev. He's dropped one set against Nadal's one, but he's faced much sterner opposition. I don't see him winning this, but he's a major talent on clay, with his win over Tsitsipas standing out in that regard. I like the set handicap more than anything else, because something like 1-6 6-3 3-6 1-6 is clearly in play.

This really would have been a very good and positive tip but for the opposition that Sinner is up against. Against Nadal, he is not going to get credit for the brilliancy he has shown to get him up to this stage. Most flat hitters of the forehand and backhand will not stand a chance against the Nadal brutal style of play. Just take a look at the scores of Nadal’s first 4 matches with 0, 1 & 2 very rife in the straight sets wins he has dished out so far. I cannot see  Sinner hit the ball with any more intensity than Travaglia did. Well, maybe 15 or 20% more at best but surely to no avail. It is going to be brutally difficult for him to stay in rallies with Nadal’s constant barrage of awkward and unfriendly spins. Nadal just does not have cool off periods in his matches and a set requires too much off times from him which I see as unlikely. It would have certainly been different on a hard court. Still, no one knows the way things have been panning out post covid stylie. Good luck!

[liquidglass]

Fucsovics vs Rublev

This is one of the matches that I thought I would get involved in today in the belief that I really think it will be a match that will deliver on all fronts, most importantly from a betting perspective.

Fucsovics has really been one of the most improved players in the men’s game over the last 2years albeit codedly. I really believe that his destruction of Medvedev came more from hardwork, consistency and perhaps a new belief in himself that he really belonged with the very best on this surface.

The head to head between both men stands at 2-0 Fucsovics, one win on clay in Barcelona in 2016 and the other one in a Davis Cup match on hardcourt in 2017. In my opinion Rublev has certainly improved in leaps and bounds since then but not enough to think that he is anything special other than a mundane aggressive ball-basher who is hopefully on the rise.

The thing with Rublev is that he only relies on a cul-de-saclike plan which he brings to court with no backup whatsoever, and to be fair to him It has worked well for him so far. However Fucsovics is more tactically sound in the sense that he always makes the necessary adjustments during the course of a match and certainly looks the right man to be on for the win. He plies his trade so very well on clay and has won a title on the surface. Even looking from the angle of Rublev’s last three games to this point, he played 5 sets with a hopeless Querrey, 4 sets with Fokina who is a decent player but a few levels below class-wise ,and Anderson who really should have been better off doing his own version of the Jerusalema rather than coming out to be counted as an also ran, we see that Fucsovis has a real live chance here at very juicy odds of 4/1. I have decided not to be greedy and have gone for him to win a set @paddy power 8/13 max stakes. Good luck all!

[delfino]

Today Tsitsipas had problems with his eye. If he fix this problem, i think he has realistic chances to beat Rublev in next round. Imagine to play with fear. This was the case with Tsitsipas today. 

As for WTA i still ask you to pick the winner. It is impossible, correct? hahaha all big names out! 

What about Swaitek? Why not? 

[TomOlej]

19 hours ago, delfino said:

Today Tsitsipas had problems with his eye. If he fix this problem, i think he has realistic chances to beat Rublev in next round. Imagine to play with fear. This was the case with Tsitsipas today. 

As for WTA i still ask you to pick the winner. It is impossible, correct? hahaha all big names out! 

What about Swaitek? Why not? 

Świątek is too young.

[four-leaf]

3 hours ago, delfino said:

Today Tsitsipas had problems with his eye. If he fix this problem, i think he has realistic chances to beat Rublev in next round. Imagine to play with fear. This was the case with Tsitsipas today. 

As for WTA i still ask you to pick the winner. It is impossible, correct? hahaha all big names out! 

What about Swaitek? Why not? 

Last time I checked Kvitova was a big name..

[CzechPunter]

Hi and welcome to the forum @BrandNew!

[CzechPunter]

Yeah, agreed, sorry for missing it earlier!

Gaston was in the form of his life and it's really hard to get into the right rhythm against him, Thiem just got out and the audience was there as well.

[lelit]

I watch the Switolina - Podoroska match and it is difficult for me to notice how Switolina, in its present form, can threaten Swiatek; she is headstrong but weak in tennis form.

Not shure that she will win this match. And she lost..

Edited October 6, 2020 by lelit

[JetBee]

On 10/4/2020 at 10:22 PM, CzechPunter said:

Jannik Sinner (+2.5 sets) to beat Rafael Nadal at 3.24 with Pinnacle

Sinner has been moving through the field very quietly, but he's been beating some big names along the way, including Goffin and Zverev. He's dropped one set against Nadal's one, but he's faced much sterner opposition. I don't see him winning this, but he's a major talent on clay, with his win over Tsitsipas standing out in that regard. I like the set handicap more than anything else, because something like 1-6 6-3 3-6 1-6 is clearly in play.

Have a tickling sensation all over my body on this one... I think at the given price and Jannik recent form it is worth a punt.

Looking at the opposition he has beaten so far, it makes me think that wont be easy walk in the park for Rafa. I think it definitely wont be as easy as crushing his biggest fan.  In addition, an easy win against Korda, might have built up unnecessary complacency for Rafa - "just another kid" unconscious mindset.

I agree to Liquidglass that Jannik probably wont sustain it continiously on high level and eventually will lose. But, I also forsee causing more troubles for Rafa than his previous draw so far.

Wont be too greedy (although I did stake a spare change on Jannik win) I think I found an excellent value bet for the match.

Jannik Sinner vs Rafael Nadal over 130.5 minutes - 1.80 with Unibet

To give you a flavour, it took Rafa 116 min with Korda and 122 to tackle Gerasimov.

[lelit]

@Brandnew

You should understand that because of Covid19, many players have left this season either bye not training enough or fearing the corona and canceling their performances. Then the low ranked youth have a chance to show off. Try to remember also  the birth from nowhere of Andreescu and Osaka.

Swiatek, with her full of courage, agressive, versatile game, has been considered as a great talent by experts for years. I've always wondered about the overdone odds on her matches. I am sure that she will be in the top 5 among all stars, already next year.

Edited October 6, 2020 by lelit

[delfino]

Iga Switaek  to lift the trophy!

Go go Iga! The whole world supports you! 

But of course she has a business today against unknown material. Don't disappoint your supporters and backers Iga! Please! I can not afford to see you losing today......

[cluelessG]

2 hours ago, BrandNew said:

I can’t believe what state the WTA is in. I thought they had done really well the last couple of years to improve the randomness problem, and improve the standard and consistency at the top of the game. Fair enough, there are several top 10 players absent, but even still, if you have one of your major tournaments, and the three remaining players in one half of the draw are ranked 54, 131 and 159 in the world, then YOU DON’T HAVE A SPORT. That’s a lottery, not a sport. Fair enough a few upsets, or one unknown player going on a great run, but there’s no way in any sport that those sort of rankings should be competing for a place in the final of a major tournament. You have to have continuity. You have to have a hierarchy. You can’t just have randomness. I’m really upset and disappointed, because I love tennis - probably the WTA more than the ATP - and I despair for the state that it appears to be in.

I don't really care about hierarchy. As long as the quality of tennis is great, I don't care for sport stars and icons.

As lelit already mentioned, COVID-19 wrecked the whole tennis calendar this year - and a few other things as well.

But would you be ok with the current tournament IF Osaka and Andreescu were healthy and they were still in play at this stage, together with Kvitova, Kenin and Swiatek (the new star who stopped Halep - the tournament favourite)? That does not look bad at all to me.

[Torque]

3 hours ago, BrandNew said:

Ok, firstly, I’ve dodged a bullet there somehow. I was choosing whether to bet big on Svitolina to win the match, or Svitolina 2-0, or Svitolina -4.5 games on the handicaps, because I thought Podoroska would struggle to win more than a game or two. I decided to go under 20.5 games instead, in case anything ridiculous happened and Podoroska somehow got an easy win. 

 

I can’t believe what state the WTA is in. I thought they had done really well the last couple of years to improve the randomness problem, and improve the standard and consistency at the top of the game. Fair enough, there are several top 10 players absent, but even still, if you have one of your major tournaments, and the three remaining players in one half of the draw are ranked 54, 131 and 159 in the world, then YOU DON’T HAVE A SPORT. That’s a lottery, not a sport. Fair enough a few upsets, or one unknown player going on a great run, but there’s no way in any sport that those sort of rankings should be competing for a place in the final of a major tournament. You have to have continuity. You have to have a hierarchy. You can’t just have randomness. I’m really upset and disappointed, because I love tennis - probably the WTA more than the ATP - and I despair for the state that it appears to be in.

That's an interesting point of view @BrandNew

Plenty think the ATP is boring precisely because it's so predictable and the elite players win the big tourneys time and time again.

[AgaRadwanska]

4 hours ago, BrandNew said:

Yeah, I agree, you can go too far the other way as well, which the ATP sometimes does, and ends up with meaningless matches which are a waste of time due to being a foregone conclusion.

Every sport wants to find that perfect balance between being boring and predictable, and being a random lottery. I think that’s part of the reason that football is so successful, as most of the time it finds that sweet spot. 

Any sport having a competition between world numbers 54, 131 and 159, for a place in the final of a major tournament, something is not right there. One of those players could easily go on a run, and reach a final, but all three of them at the same time, outlasting and outperforming the 16 seeds in that half, something is seriously wrong in that sport I’m afraid. Saddens me to say it and to see it! Fair enough Swiatek is an up-and-coming player breaking through, and will probably end up much further up the rankings, but I think the other two players are bang-average professionals, who have been around a while, aren’t they?

 

Fairly obvious reasons for why this is, but:

- Best of 3 sets rather than best of 5 = way higher variance for ''better players'' in women's tournament. 

- Weather: French Open being played in the wind/rain/cold of September/October rather than in Spring = players not being used to conditions. 

- Some players lacking competitive match fitness due to ongoing pandemic, and others (Fiona Ferro for one) having played several clay tournaments and being super sharp. 

- Lack of full arenas

 

 

[AgaRadwanska]

also lfg IGA ?

[cluelessG]

 I'd still blame COVID: out of the top 11-ranked WTA players, 5 have missed the tournament (Barty, Osaka, Andreescu, Bencic and Serina, who quit after round 1). Including 2 of the top 3. That would be a problem in any sport.

2 of the remaining 6 players are still in the tournament.

The rest:

Halep - lost to Swiatek, not too many people disappointed with that, a new star joins the hierarchy

Pliskova - lost to a former Roland Garros champion

Svitolina - lost in the quarter-finals

Bertens - used a wheelchair in round 2 but got to round 4 ?

And as AgaRadwanska said, the weather further complicates things.

[liquidglass]

10 hours ago, BrandNew said:

Ok, firstly, I’ve dodged a bullet there somehow. I was choosing whether to bet big on Svitolina to win the match, or Svitolina 2-0, or Svitolina -4.5 games on the handicaps, because I thought Podoroska would struggle to win more than a game or two. I decided to go under 20.5 games instead, in case anything ridiculous happened and Podoroska somehow got an easy win. 

 

I can’t believe what state the WTA is in. I thought they had done really well the last couple of years to improve the randomness problem, and improve the standard and consistency at the top of the game. Fair enough, there are several top 10 players absent, but even still, if you have one of your major tournaments, and the three remaining players in one half of the draw are ranked 54, 131 and 159 in the world, then YOU DON’T HAVE A SPORT. That’s a lottery, not a sport. Fair enough a few upsets, or one unknown player going on a great run, but there’s no way in any sport that those sort of rankings should be competing for a place in the final of a major tournament. You have to have continuity. You have to have a hierarchy. You can’t just have randomness. I’m really upset and disappointed, because I love tennis - probably the WTA more than the ATP - and I despair for the state that it appears to be in.

What state is the WTA in? Randomness or consistency, it is clear that the standard of tennis has still remained very very high even without the usual old faces. In fact true aficionados of the game will certainly prefer randomness over predictable and mundane consistency. It is what keeps everything intriguing and exciting. Also it matters not what the ranking of the three remaining players are. We can all see that they are all far better than those numbers will care to indicate.  Even before this competition a player like Iva Swiatek would always be priced respectably by the bookies regardless of who she was playing and there certainly cannot be anything random in the scores she has produced on the way to completely obliterating her opponents including Halep.

Covid 19 has just helped to jettison an old era of tennis  to instal a brand new brigade of young talent same as we currently see in the men’s game. What the covid 19 situation has done for these lowly ranked players is that it has afforded them to play in an empty arena without the usual tension that the crowds or the centre courts would have otherwise brought, thus allowing them to play with the uttermost freedom from the abundance of the talent within. It is the main reason why you will begin to see these faces at the later stages of tournaments even after the old brigade has returned. Things have really changed in all spheres of life and that change has come to stay.

[liquidglass]

Djokovic VS Carreno Busta

There certainly cannot be too many confident tipsters around now with the amount of quality body blows that the bookies have inflicted over the last week or so. Still we keep coming forward with our gloves high up over our faces hoping to land that knockout punch on the bookies. Ask Alexander Povetkin. lol!!! There is nothing to say about Djokovic as it stands so I will quickly go on to talk about Carreno Busta. Firstly the head to head between both men stands at 3-1 Djokovic  which begun on clay back in 2014. Djokovic won that match in straight sets 6-0 6-1. They met again on clay 3years later in 2017 Monte Carlo. Djokovic won that one this time in three competitive sets 6-2 4-6 6-4 (It was evident that Carreno had adjusted a bit to the Djokovic game by the improved scoreline. Fast-forward to 2019 Cincinnati (first meeting on hard courts) Djokovic wins 6-3 6-4 which kind of indicates that Carreno would have put up a decent performance there. Their second meeting on hard courts came recently at the US Open last month where like in the previous meetings on clay, Carreno showed improvement from the first meeting. Remember that he had just broken Djokovic to lead 6-5 which was what led to the disqualification of the Djoker. I am not trying to commence a victory campaign for Carreno here, rather I am trying to point towards the value in backing the underdog in a certain way that should lead to profits.

Carreno Busta would not have quickly forgotten where he was in their last meeting before it was called off and will draw a lot of confidence from there. I also believe that he would additionally have an improved chance of bettering that performance since we are talking clay here, and so far to this point he has really done well to maximize his energy levels with the time that he has spent on court so far. The target here is total games over 27.5 @1/2(alternative totals paddy power) again maximum stakes advised. Good luck folks!!!

Edited October 7, 2020 by liquidglass

[CzechPunter]

Agreed on PCD there! Gutted about Sinner!

[liquidglass]

2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Agreed on PCD there! Gutted about Sinner!

Yeah, I knew you would have been gutted about Sinner. That is one of the most painful ways a person can lose a bet where the thought is spot on but loses on the expression of that thought. Sinner covered the handicap and total games with a lot to spare. It also looked like he could win a set anytime he chose to put his foot on the gas pedal but never quite got round to doing it. He largely suffered from the cobwebs of inexperience. His total concentration was in and out for most parts and his commitment to shots was lackadaisical at times coupled with a body language that was not in line with that mission that he was setting out to accomplish. Despite all that, Sinner is the real McCoy for sure!

[delfino]

18 hours ago, BrandNew said:

What do you mean by ‘the whole world supports you?’ Surely you know that’s not even close to being true.

Hey, we don't write books here, surely is not true. People have more serious problems than to watch all those parasites hitting the small balls and been paid by huge amounts of money. 

Here it is just a betting forum. OK?

I wish i am clear. Do i need evidence to persuade you? People are looking for jobs, are looking for the needs of their families, who really cares about those parasites my friend? NONE.

If it was not a matter of betting, i would not waste a single second of my life to watch the parasites.

Thanks. 

[Bettingboots]

3 hours ago, liquidglass said:

Yeah, I knew you would have been gutted about Sinner. That is one of the most painful ways a person can lose a bet where the thought is spot on but loses on the expression of that thought. Sinner covered the handicap and total games with a lot to spare. It also looked like he could win a set anytime he chose to put his foot on the gas pedal but never quite got round to doing it. He largely suffered from the cobwebs of inexperience. His total concentration was in and out for most parts and his commitment to shots was lackadaisical at times coupled with a body language that was not in line with that mission that he was setting out to accomplish. Despite all that, Sinner is the real McCoy for sure!

This match reminded me of Sinner's match v Medvedev earlier this year, where the young Italian started on fire, full of confidence, blitzing him in the first set, but as soon a Medvedev raised his game and applied pressure, Sinner crumpled and lost heavily in the next 2 sets. You can see Sinner has a huge game and for much of the match he was able to hit thru Nadal, but not when it really counted. When it really mattered (holding after breaking Nadal's serve, and in the TB) he lost his confidence, his focus, and his big shots disappeared. Nadal will do that to 99% of the players on the circuit. We have to remember he is only 19, so has lots of time to improve and gain more experience of being in these tough situations, and if he does improve his mentality he could be a serious weapon on the tour. 

[liquidglass]

I do not think that it requires any intense observation to realize that tennis has officially entered a new era as with a few other sports like snooker etc. Most times there is never any distinguishing ceremony to mark this kind of change aside noting the slow and steady upgrade of the human infrastructure as the years roll on. In most cases change will occur as a simulated or clandestine activity which will always be visible to those who understand the game or are privileged with an inside view.

Over the past years this simulated process has continued in the background and invariably progressed the game to where it is now. I remember when tennis was mostly about serve and volley, a one handed back-hand and a defensive back hand slice (as opposed to the continuous full backhand swings that we see these days in brutal rallies) There were also more overhead lobs etc used to alter the cause of a rally. Then from Jimmy Connors onwards, we started seeing this new kind of aggressive baseline game with players opting to stay back to control points. This also signalled the beginning of the double-handed backhand stroke that has now suddenly become the norm. All these were changes that happened as the game evolved. We also saw the introduction of aggressive baseliners into the game like Jim courier, Thomas Muster, Monica Seles, Serena Williams etc

You must remember that change is not something that happens instantaneously. It is always somewhat of a slow and deliberate process. Over the last few years there has been a steady injection of talent from Russia, China, Romania, USA and even the United Kingdom who have suddenly raised their game on both sides of the ball. So when cite Osaka, Andreescu and Kenin as pre-change models, you are definitely making a mistake as these young women are the product of this current change. Random slam winning was very rare before these new breed of young women came on board. You will also discover that these women represent the ages of players born from 1997 on-wards which is about where we can just about trace back the roots of these new era of players to.

I definitely believe that I am quite right when I say that true aficionados would rather prefer randomness. This is perhaps true in all sports. It is this same unpredictability that makes the FA cup very special. Most of us are here on this forum because we have a very comprehensive understanding of the game backed by an unrivaled passion. So whilst Grand Slams for the ordinary tennis watcher will center around Federer, Djokovic and Nadal, for us here who take stock of everything from the satellite  level and beyond, it is more about those competitive early rounds where these random talents try to make their bid for glory. These matches are always special for us to see a baby star that we all know break into maturity. Predictability is as boring as Djokovic and Nadal in another final as was Steve Davis in a snooker final way back when.

Yes, we all want to see rivalries in as much as we want to see new talent emerge. Nothing makes Osaka, Kenin and Andreescu any different from Swiatek Podoroska etc. It is all about having your opportunity to take your chance when it becomes available. A good player is all about a positive mental attitude. When you look at a player like Podoroska, you will discover that her bad habit for winning did not start here at the French Open. She always lived in winning mode which was why it was not too difficult to project it on to a higher level. I have known her from jump street and have been following her progress along with many others like Kostyuk. They all have a positive attitude towards the game and are very progressive. If we repeated the tournament there is no certainty where anyone will finish. The same will be true even with a fully packed elite field. The field is now closely bunched up talent-wise and there is no one person so far in front as before. 

[mdlp]

Just want to note a few things.  I find it strange how I am such a winning player but when I post a pick online it is very often a loser.  Random but weird lol. I really struggled during the first 2 rounds (as is often the case) then I just killed it in rounds leading to now.  So much to learn.  But this forum is the best one I know of and I really enjoy the comments.

 

By the way @liquidglass really enjoying reading the profundity of your comments.  Very deep and intellectual and I have long yearned for a forum where the intellect rises up and we can debate to a point of converging on success.

 

So tired, cannot wait for this to be over and sleep a few days well before Ostrava!

 

MDLP