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Everything posted by mdlp

  1. I took Andreescu at +250 last night on 5 dimes. Best bet I've seen in a while. I can see Serena coming out sluggish and dropping first set quickly. Bianca will get this and the line still looks good at around +230-240 this morning. GL!
  2. Mertens doesn't have what it takes tonight. I've watched her a lot and don't think her breezy draw so far means anything. Andreescu at -195 on 5dimes for easy $$$ in 2 hours.
  3. Pretty sure gonna bet Alexandrova at +166 on bookmaker as well. Sakkari did make the final in San Jose last year but she will struggle w alexandrova and +166 is a bit too much.
  4. Going to pick a Vekic x Navarro (-370 x -170 bookmaker) parlay. Doi isn't at Vekic's level and Navarro should easily topple a weak Linette. Vekic has shown a lot of will and ability over the past couple months and Navarro is really spunky with a one-handed backhand and speed that would trouble a slow and docile Linette.
  5. I agree about Cori Gauff. I guess my fritz over norrie pick for 20 units never got confirmed for posting by the moderator. For some reason on my iphone it needs to be confirmed but not on laptop? Ok my next pick would be Lauren Davis over Bouchard at -145 bookmaker. Bouchard shouldnt even be playing tennis anymore. She's absolutely horrific. Davis has shown considerable skill and of course shocked the world at wimbledon crushing Angie Kerber. I see good value here all the way up to -175. I also like Siniakova over Pegula at -140 on bookmaker. Pegula is terrible and Siniakova has showed increasing ability this season. Especially like how she toppled a capable Alexandrova at Wimbledon (who could give Sakkari trouble in San Jose in round 1 as well).
  6. Kecmanovic +155 on bookmaker. Really impressed w his performance yesterday. Sure Fritz is solid but at this price we gotta jump on board. Should be closer to even odds in my opinion. Let's cash it!
  7. Just want to say thank you Czech for your valuable contributions to this great forum. I'm quite behind after returning from Wimbledon and haven't been able to add much myself. I will try to change that!
  8. Hey what does everyone here think of De Minuar over Klahn at -190? Seems a decent price but can Klahn pull the upset?
  9. So true. But there's still some interesting stuff this week on clay in the WTA if you really love the grind:) After losing so much on the final serena vs halep match (literally lost all of my wimbledon profits on the single match) I kinda need the break anyway. Still felt like the bet was right, but disappointed. I'll be courtside for the San Jose tourney which looks to be really good this year with Svitolina and some other big names coming:)
  10. What do you guys think about Serena vs Halep in the final? On grass Serena has a fast serve, Halep is really short. Any way serena falls? I don't think so...
  11. YTD 2-3 at -0.05 units. Next picks: 1-Svitolina over Halep at +180 on 5 dimes - 5 unit bet 2-Strycova over Serena at +325 on 5 dimes - 1 unit bet I think Svitolina wins the whole thing most likely. Her first legit shot at a slam and Halep's simple ways won't work against her variety and hunger. Hoping strycova can continue and Serena shows up like she sometimes can...stale:) GL!
  12. This is probably the smarter bet but I'm gunning for Zhang to get the win at >4:1 :---)
  13. Actually, I'm going to go against my initial hesitation and also add a single unit on Zhang vs Halep at +406 on bookmaker. Halep will probably disappoint me but I don't think +406 is fair, it should be closer to the +280ish mark. GL to us all! Let's go Riske and Zhang!
  14. YTD 2-1, 1.95 units. My only bet tomorrow is Allison Riske +296 on bookmaker for a single unit. Betting is all about the price and i think this is too much to pass on. Yes it's serena, I know etc etc...But this is destiny for Riske who played lights out against Barty and has a lot more matches on grass than Serena in 2019. I'm going to pass on the other 3 matches although I haven't yet watched Zhang Shuai's match yet(about to in a bit). I just have a hard time going against Halep who has such a correct mindset going into tomorrow. I think Svitolina is hot and should get through but I've been doing this too long to lay -220 against Muchova. Also, don't want to fade Konta right now while also don't want to pay -230 against Strycova who will grind her little heart out tomorrow. Good luck to us all!
  15. Happy w winning 2/3 underdogs here. Svitolina really looks to be back in hot form! Crazy I didn't bet Riske against Barty:(
  16. What are your thoughts on Martic/ Svitolina? You think Svit should be a favorite over such an in form player at the moment?
  17. Well don't get me wrong, Yastremska is a great talent in the making but I watched her last match very carefully and think she'll go off the rails a bit too much against Zhang. Honestly, Yastremska didn't even play well against Golubic. On the other hand, Zhang showed great reserve coming back against a solid Wozniacki (ok not in perfect form but still great). Zhang actually look scary-good in that last set. This matchup could have Zhang as a dog, but not more than +110. The price is on Zhang as +EV no doubt.
  18. After getting past Mertens however, I think you might wanna bet on the other side at the quarterfinals because Strycova probably won't get past Kvitova who will most likely be too much for Konta tomorrow:)
  19. There are a few reasons why I bet Strycova at +130 over Mertens. First, I watch a ton of women's tennis (it's the only sport I bet on) and will even attend the last 3 rounds of wimbledon live in person. I've seen both of these ladies play live more than once as well. Strycova has been on fire since her grass season began in Birmingham with only 1 bad performance at Eastbourne against Hercog where she had to retire as she was feeling like crap and Hercog was super tricky in a rainy court. If you watched Strycova's last match against Bertens, particularly the last set, you'll see that she is bringing a ton of hustle and variety to her game right now. Mertens on the other hand, barely got by an out-of-form Qiang Wang in her last set and really just kept the ball in play and let an injured opponent err. Honestly, I think Mertens is a fine player but really hasn't impressed me a lot lately. She's a typical euro player who can rally and such but lacks depth and I think at +130 it's a price I can't walk away from. 2 other good underdog bets I have are Zhang Shuai at +165 and Martic at +110. I would not be suprised to see 3-0 with these 3 underdog picks for tomorrow. As always, good luck - MDLP
  20. haha that's awesome. WTA is a value for betting but it's so vert different from ATP and far more competitive for sure. A #1 player can lose to a #50 in wta but it's rare in ATP because the bigger serve equalizes among the men...
  21. Pliskova took it easily! I've decided to come over to this forum from covers as the quality of discussion is better. I'm looking forward to contributing. I study WTA very closely and watch a lot of matches. Hope to add value here;)
  22. thanks! yea i think on grass pliskova will take it...
  23. what do u guys think of ka pliskova beating bertens tomorrow?