French Open 2020

[CzechPunter]

[Bettingboots]

What are the seedings for Roland Garos ?  Have they been announced yet ?

If it were me, I'd have Nadal 1st, Thiem 2nd, Djokovic 3rd, but I suspect Joker will be seeded 2nd, and Thiem 3rd.

Seedings will have a big impact on the draw, and therefore the outright prices.

[Bettingboots]

Just seen it now. Joker 1st, Rafa 2nd, Thiem 3rd.  Didn't think they would just go with the current world rankings.

[CzechPunter]

https://www.rolandgarros.com/en-us/results/SM?round=1

https://www.rolandgarros.com/en-us/results/SD?round=1

[DrO]

[CzechPunter]

Alright, guys, the French Open is here and it’s set to go on. It’s possible that it’s going to be without fans after all, but we’re going to get matches and that’s what matters.

Personally, I’ve already written the season off for many reasons. It’s going to be a bad one, but that was bound to happen after two very good runs. I still want to cover matches and events until the new season starts, however, but my approach is going to be slightly different. So let’s take a look at what I’ve been able to fish out so far!

First, I like Shuai Zhang’s chances to upset Madison Keys. The H2H record should be ignored, as it’s quite old, but what shouldn’t be ignored is the fact that Keys hasn’t played any preparation events. She’s retired from her match against Cornet in the US Open and has been absent since then. Zhang, meanwhile, has been playing in Strasbourg in the meantime and even in Rome for a while before then. She’s worse than Keys, but 3.26 with a one-set bookie? I’ll take that!

Stefano Travaglia also shouldn’t be the underdog against Andujar imo. Sure, Andujar has beaten him last time out, but Travaglia leads the record 2-1 nonetheless and he was impressive in Rome. There, he managed to beat Coric and Fritz before losing against Berrettini, which is fair. His youth should also be a benefit if this goes to the distance, which it easily might.

Hugo Gaston is a promising home talent and he crushed Janvier 6-3 6-0 not that long ago. Janvier is on a losing streak as well, so chances are that we’ll get another good win for Gaston. Unless he chokes on the big stage, he should have the upper hand.

Finally, I’m also going to take a chance on Mikael Ymer against Djokovic. I like the guy on the big stage, he’s got the right attitude when playing the big guys and he showed that against Krajinovic in the US Open. The scoreline was quite misleading in that one and I think that he’s going to win a few games against Novak.

Shuai Zhang to beat Madison Keys at 3.26 with Pinnacle

Stefano Travaglia to beat Pablo Andujar at 2.00 with Bet365

Hugo Gaston to beat Maxime Janvier at 1.52 with Pinnacle

N.Djokovic/M.Ymer – Over 26 games at 1.79 with Pinnacle

Good luck to everyone!

[rodxuabht]

I've got the next matches: (obviously every argument of mine is subjective a bit as well, so take it like that). Imma attach the score I predict to be played as well, don't take it for granted.

Pironkova - Petrovic : Petrovic to win 2.20: Pironkova is way way overrated in this matchup. I see her playing a relaxed, free flowing tennis, I do not think it will be enough against Petrovic, whom I find a great, solid player overall. Value odds on clay. Prediction: Petrovic to win 2-0

 

Monteiro - Basilashvili - Basilashvili takes a set : 1.44: Basilashvili is a joke as well, I just cannot imagine him going down without taking 1-2 sets from Monteiro. Monteiro is a fighter, runs a lot, plays every ball, etc, nothing special imo though. Prediction: Basilashvili to win: 3-1

MIllman - Busta : Millman takes a set : 1.57: Busta is overrated here again, Millman should be good for a set any day of the year. Prediction: Busta to win 3-2

Djere - Anderson: over 3,5 sets: This is a 60-40% matchup again, I see a 5 setter here. Prediction: Anderson to win 3-2

Halys - Giron: Giron to win 2 sets atleast : 1.57: Giron is not the king on clay, however, I liked him versus Ymer some weeks ago. Halys on the other hand is not even average,in my opinion again. Prediction: Giron to win 3-1

[rodxuabht]

Isner - Benchetrit:

Benchetrit to win the first set. - 3.25 / to break serve - 2.50

Isner hasn't touched clay since 2018 ( official match). Benchetrit has some experience overall, not in a great form, but he played some matches. 

The scenario I imagine: Isner struggles with his serve a bit, the weather + clay will bring up the slow game in advantage -> Benchetrit strikes

(Imma go Benchetrit to take a set also)

 

Niculescu - Collins

Niculescu to win- 2.20 : Uhm, Collins is quite awful on clay, I watched her last 3 matches, she played poooooooooooooooor on all of them, basically she beat herself every single time. Collins is way better than Niculescu at normal conditions( my opinion), but Niculescu has a strange style of playing, which I consider upsetting for Collins in this matchup. Niculescu to win all the way.

Edited September 26, 2020 by rodxuabht

[CzechPunter]

Aleksandar Vukic to beat Pedro Martinez at 4.33 with Bet365

Jason Jung to beat Federico Coria at 3.75 with Bet365

Adding these two underdogs as well, no reason for such big odds imo. Martinez has no serve and, while he should outplay Vukic from the back of the court, Vukic has been above average during the qualifiers. Should have a chance. Jung led Coria 2-0 in this year's US Open before getting injured and losing. He's worse on clay, but not by such a margin and he's played a few matches here already, which should help him.

[CzechPunter]

Just a note: according to the forecasts, there are going to be many rain delays, especially at the end of the next week.

[WinningTipster]

4 picks for the French Open matches (3 of them tomorrow and 1 this evening).

PUTINTSEVA-FLIPKENS 2:0 sets @ 1.49 pinnacle  
Putintseva is a much better clay court player with good record last couple of weeks. Flipkens' first match on clay in 2020.

FERRO-WATSON 2:0 sets @ 1.62 pinnacle  
Ferro is 15-0 in her 3 tournaments after the COVID break, including winning her last clay court tournament in Italy. She had a rib injury there but apparently is in a good form now,

KASATKINA-TAN 2:0 sets @ 1.47 pinnacle  
Tan is a local wild card player. Kasatkina is a top-20 potentially and played well recently.

RUUD-SUGITA 3:0 sets @ 1.37 pinnacle  
Expect it to be an easy 3 sets win for the clay court specialist Ruud, Japanese veteran Sugita is near retirement and never had any results on clay courts.

 

[lelit]

Kasatkina clutched her food in her last match week ago. So...

[Torque]

1pt Kamil Majchrzak to beat Karen Khachanov @ 4.00 Bet365

This is the sort of match I like to get involved in - a lesser known player in good form who should be full of confidence, up against a well known player without much form who might not be feeling great about their game. Majchrzak won in Prostejov in his last tournament, whereas Khachanov has lost two out of the three matches he's played on the dirt since the US Open finished. It should have been three losses out of three, but Struff somehow found a way to lose when he should have won. It's fair to say that Khachanov is a significant upgrade from the opponents Majchrzak faced in Prostejov, but he did beat Andujar in straight sets in the final and he's a very competent clay-courter. I think Majchrzak has every chance of taking one of the first two sets here, and that's enough to justify a bet on him at this price.

[Potato]

John Millman to win a set against Pablo Carreno-Busta @1.62 (Pinnacle)

Last RG, Millman lost to Zverev 3-2 in the 1st round. This year on clay, he won against Sousa 2-0 in Rome, than lost against Shwartzman 2-0 (6-4, 7-6), but Schwartzman played an amazing tournament in Rome. Both sets were close, 42-40 in point in the 1st set for Schwartzman, and Millman had a set point in the second set. If he plays like that today, he should win at least a set against Carreno-Busta, who reached the SF of USO, and than lost 6-1 6-1 to Nadal in Rome. I think reaching the SF of USO may actually put extra pressure on Carreno-Busta to do well on RG. Also, Millman is a player who even if he's down 2-0, he still won't give up. He was losing 2-0 to Zverev in the last RG, but managed to take the match to the 5th set. And the cold conditions on this RG, may suit Millman better than Busta.

 

[CzechPunter]

Hi and welcome to Punterslounge @Potato!

[CzechPunter]

Well, Zhang delivered quite nicely!

Gilles Simon (+2.5 sets) to beat Denis Shapovalov at 1.93 with Pinnacle

Adding this one due to the slow and damp conditions. Simon is obviously in decline, but he'll have more patience than Shapo anyway and that alone could well translate into a set, if not more.

 

[vvararu]

Medvedev is so boring to watch on clay.... If he wins, only because he pisses off Fucsovic

Edited September 28, 2020 by vvararu

[CzechPunter]

Daria Gavrilova (+1.5 sets) to beat Eugenie Bouchard at 1.73 with Pinnacle

Benoit Paire to beat Federico Coria at 1.80 with Bet365

Going with these two for round two so far. I know that it's a bit crazy to be backing Paire, but he now has a win on board and he's in France, so he finally has his mindset back at least a little bit. It was a solid win for him as well in round one, no dropped sets out of nowhere - and Coria wasn't convincing against Jung, should've dropped a set at the very least. Meanwhile, Bouchard is rarely to be trusted as such a big favorite. Gavrilova has the right frame for these conditions and should frustrate Bouchard to no end by returning everything for one more shot.

[WinningTipster]

2 picks for the French Open match
SCHWARTZMAN-GIUSTINO 10 GAMES HANDICAP @ 2.05 pinnacle 
SCHWARTZMAN-GIUSTINO 3:0 sets @ 1.3 pinnacle / unibet

Schwartzman would probably win easily in 3 sets anyway but Giustino had the 5 hours match yesterday night winning by 18-16 in 5th set so must be very tired. Expect an easy win for Schwartzman
  

[DrO]

Tennis shoes Ymer wore in match against Djokovic. 

[Torque]

Wonder if Djoko noticed 

[vvararu]

I hope the guy holds :)))

[rodxuabht]

33 minutes ago, vvararu said:

I hope the guy holds :)))

3-2 Tsitsi all over now

[Torque]

11 minutes ago, rodxuabht said:

3-2 Tsitsi all over now

I tend to agree. Let's see.

[rodxuabht]

55 minutes ago, Torque said:

I tend to agree. Let's see.

I cashed out, I've just seen way too many things in my life

[Torque]

10 minutes ago, rodxuabht said:

I cashed out, I've just seen way too many things in my life

I don't blame you - not after the Coric match and Rublev just a few days ago where Tsitsipas couldn't serve it out. Like I said recently, that must still be on his mind and even though he did serve out just now no doubt you'd have been kicking yourself if he'd been broken and you hadn't cashed out. You've got to go with what makes you feel comfortable even if that costs you a few euros - the flip side is there'll be times when it saves you a few euros.

[Torque]

On 9/28/2020 at 6:42 PM, CzechPunter said:

Well, Zhang delivered quite nicely!

Gilles Simon (+2.5 sets) to beat Denis Shapovalov at 1.93 with Pinnacle

Adding this one due to the slow and damp conditions. Simon is obviously in decline, but he'll have more patience than Shapo anyway and that alone could well translate into a set, if not more.

 

Panned out exactly how you thought. Simon might even win it now.

[rodxuabht]

12 minutes ago, Torque said:

I don't blame you - not after the Coric match and Rublev just a few days ago where Tsitsipas couldn't serve it out. Like I said recently, that must still be on his mind and even though he did serve out just now no doubt you'd have been kicking yourself if he'd been broken and you hadn't cashed out. You've got to go with what makes you feel comfortable even if that costs you a few euros - the flip side is there'll be times when it saves you a few euros.

Actually my story about cash out is kinda funny. I haven't been betting for so long( 5 years or some), and I obviously had various tactics, projects, whatever. I never was a tiltable person, I never really tilted bcs of a bet losing.(before me becoming addictive of cash outing at 90% of the profit, which actually brought me profits I've never seen without cash-outting) However, in the past, the only thing that tilted me was me not cash-outing when I could have had 90% of the profit in my pocket, then somehow, the player managing to lose it from unlosable situations. Since then, I don't really think. I have it in automatic-co (partypoker, bet365), or I just follow it and press the button the second I see the $$$.I don't really have a statistics about this, but it brought me way more money in +, then lost me because of not getting that extra 10% or some. (FOR EXAMPLE TODAY PLISKOVA IN THE FIRST SET, THANK YOU CASH-OUT)

Edited September 29, 2020 by rodxuabht

[rodxuabht]

Rodionov - Gombos : over 3.5 sets: 1.60 : Uhm, I never go above the maximum 5% of my bankroll bet, but this one I hit with a 10%. If this goes down 3-0 or 0-3 I'll eat my shoes. Quote me on this one.

Pironkova - Williams: Pironkova to win a set: 1.80 :Since the last year or so, the value bets versus Williams are up the sky. She was the best, she is not anymore. If she doesn't get her first serve in, it's an open point. I actually find her current gameplay awful. She's lucky Andreescu's not playing, cuz she would get washed from the court every time.  I won't ignore this value, Pironkova knows well what she has to do in order to win, if she starts varying her shots (dropshots, etc) she's more than enough for a set(ATLEAST)

(I also go Halep-Begu, Begu +6.5, and Nadal-McDonald, McDonald to win over 7.5 games)

Edited September 29, 2020 by rodxuabht

[CzechPunter]

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (+2.5 sets) to beat Andrey Rublev at 1.75 with Pinnacle

I fully expect Rublev to win again, but he should be tired and Fokina looked pretty decent, so a set should be fully within his grasp. Rublev should've lost yesterday, Querrey just choked, but he's now played so much tennis that I don't see him going far. He should make it through Fokina, but not without issues.