Midweek > Jan 31st - Feb 1st

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

We have a bit of a longer wait than normal before the next round of Premier League games. This is due to the FA Cup on the weekend. Luckily, there are some games in midweek next week so we don't have to wait too long. Here are the odds and ratings. Let's get some chat going early doors.

Hands up if Swansea screwed your bets last weekend? Pass on our thanks, @andrewcalo!

@Hamster99, you mentioned Leicester being 10/1 to get relegated. Can you see it happening? Is it plausible that Claudio Ranieri might actually get sacked before the end of the season?

@WinningAdvice, money back is better than a loss! What are you backing here?

@mrclubbie, I don't want to say it's your own fault for betting on Crystal Palace but that's their fourth defeat in a row. Unless something changes drastically they are surely staring relegation in the face. Big Sam not working his magic here.

@sajtion, what are you thinking of backing this week?

@vasilli07, you quite rightly predicted anything could happen in the Watford vs Bournemouth game last weekend. I had backed Bournemouth so that did me. What do you think in these games?

@betcatalog, great shout on the Tottenham vs Man City outcome! Liverpool vs Chelsea could have goals in it this week if you ask me. Fancying an over total goals scored bet on that game?

@Magic0024, been enjoying your stats so far. Got any for these games?

@KikoCy, you gave us some in-depth thoughts last week. Want to share your insight here?

@Mindfulness, interested to hear what a Palace fan is thinking right now. I bet you can't wait for Zaha to come back from the African Nations Cup. Or is the problem bigger than that?

@Pep004, you were a bit quiet last week. Care to share some of your views on these games?

Also keen to hear from other contributors to this forum such as @Spooner, @neilovan, @discipline, @jamiedavies02, @Kenton Schweppes, @immortal--, @Simeon Borisof, @Carovie, and @Bobby Vegas.

[sajtion]

i think this is match crystal palace can break their buck because bournemouth concede too many goals. everton just managed to shade a narrow victory against them so i see their first win coming here. i also think burnley may rest on their laurels here and lose. leicester are very unpredictable and may swing their way. i can see middlefborough winning 1-0 against west brom who have very similar defensive mentality. they are finally going to meet their match. tottenham will thump sunderland by at least 5-0. i like southampton to beat swansea although i can see goals coming very late in the match.southampton have a coach that has adapted very well to premier league and their dogged defense will see them through. finally i definitelly think chelsea will beat liverpool. there isn't  a bigger mismatch of styles, liverpool attack versus chelsea defense. this is contes heaven and chelsea will win it.

[andrewcalo]

Swansea will beat Southampton. The buzz in the club right now is through the roof.

Double chance would be the safe bet though.

Edited January 24, 2017 by andrewcalo

[sajtion]

swansea defense will crumble eventually. they cannot stop conceding goals and southampton will not give them many opportunities. 

[KikoCy]

My bookie is giving Burnley win @ 2.90, I have to jump on that price.

[Spooner]

Again you have to have Burnley @ 2/1 to be a Leicester side who are not only out of form, but havent won away in the league in their last 13, since April last year. Burnley's home record is well known now & I see no reason why they can't take all 3 points here, to not be favourites to win seems crazy. Burney 2/1 Betvictor/Betfred

West Brom have been flying this season & come here full of confidence I would imagine, they've had a tough run of fixtures away from home with only Spurs giving them a real going over, when they've met sides in the bottom half their record is decent. Boro have mixed form at home but 6 PL sides have already come here & taken the points & I think West Brom are a decent price to do just that. West Brom 11/5 Betvictor/StanJames/Betfair

Double pays 17/2

[louis12]

West Ham vs Manchester City

Just draw!

[allyhibs]

I agree with Spooner above. The odds on West Brom look really nice here.

If you look back at their form over the last 10 games you'll see they tend to beat most teams outside the top 6. Pulis always has his teams well organised and combine this with Middlesboroughs' struggles in front of goal and it's clear that 1 goal for WBA could be enough to win this.

West Brom @ 11/5 looks a cracking bet to me.

 

[Magic0024]

Here's some interesting statistical facts about next Premier League games:

Swansea City have scored 79% of their home matches in the second half.
70% of Liverpool and Chelsea last 10 meetings have seen 2 or 3 goals scored.
Arsenal have scored 60% of their Premier League goals in the second half this season.
Middlesbrough have won 27% of their home matches in the Premier League this season.
Leicester City have lost 73% of their away matches this season.

You can find more interesting statistical facts for next games on http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-30-01-2017/

[neilovan]

Having read through the posts a few thing spring to mind.

1) Liverpool look flat and out on their feet. This playing style of Klopp and Simeone eventually takes its toll. These teams need to find a more economical way to win. I call it 'match-stress'. It's the cumulative effect of playing very tough, close  games week after week. Eventually players are mentally and physically drained. Performance drops off and the team slumps. And it's not like you can bring in quality fresh replacements, because your squad just does not have the quality depth. I think Liverpool will fall away in the later half of the season. The big squads (Man CIty, Arsenal, Chelsea, Man United will surge away). I think Chelsea win easily on Tuesday night.

2) For me Southampton are a really strange teams. They blow hot and cold all the time. WIn when you expect them to lose and get hammered when you don't expect it. I think Swansea are flying, after winning at Anfield. Add Saints really poor away form to the equation and I think Swansea win this.

3) How can Moyes sell van Arnoldt ? How can he sell him to Crystal Palace ? Just insane ! Has he thrown in the towel ? To me this is one of the most bizarre transfers I have ever seen. I feel sorry for Sunderland fans who have one of the most clueless managers in football in charge. He's turned Sunderland into a last stop for Everton and Man United rejects.... Next he will make a swap deal .... Defoe for Benteke,  which Sam Allerdyce will say  'YOU ARE' !. Just amazing to me that these people get these million pound a year jobs....

 

 

Edited January 30, 2017 by neilovan

[andrewcalo]

"1) Liverpool look flat and out on their feet. This playing style of Klopp and Simeone eventually takes its toll. These teams need to find a more economical way to win. I call it 'match-stress'. It's the cumulative effect of playing very tough, close  games week after week. Eventually players are mentally and physically drained. Performance drops off and the team slumps. And it's not like you can bring in quality fresh replacements, because your squad just does not have the quality depth. I think Liverpool will fall away in the later half of the season. The big squads (Man CIty, Arsenal, Chelsea, Man United will surge away). I think Chelsea win easily on Tuesday night."

this. So much this. 

I think the only relevance watching form has is to see peaks and troughs - or doves and hawks in the stock trading game - who is due to falter, who is due to rise - and Liverpool are the Icarus of the premiership right now.

swansea are also due a draw and the Southampton game will be just rhat.

[Icongene]

Both teams to score in the Liverpool v Chelsea game looks an ok bet. Liverpool will be fired up to prove a point after recent poor results and when teams come out with that attitude it often leaves gaps for the opponent to exploit. I would be wary of taking Chelsea outright as for me this could be the perfect Anfield night IF things go to plan and the crowd get behind them.

Edit: Chelsea v Liverpool, both teams to score@1.73

Liverpool despite poor form have still been finding the back of the net. In 70% of Liverpools home matches both teams have scored. Chelsea will have a spell in the game where they impose themselves on Liverpool and they have the ability to make it count.

Edited January 30, 2017 by Icongene

[malabgd]

Swansea City v Southampton

Swansea City: Jefferson Montero (11/0 m, doubtful), Leon Britton (11/0 m), Oliver McBurnie (4/0 f), Neil Taylor (11/0 d), Modou Barrow (18/0 f)

Southampton: James Ward-Prowse (17/2 m), Jay Rodriguez (14/4 f), Sofiane Boufal (11/1 m)(all doubtful), Virgil van Dijk (21/1 d, captain), Alex McCarthy (0/0 g), Charlie Austin (13/6 f, top scorer), Jake Hesketh (0/0 m), Matt Targett (4/0 d), Jeremy Pied (1/0 m)

 

Liverpool FC v Chelsea FC

Liverpool FC: Nathaniel Clyne (21/0 d), Sadio Mane (19/9 f, top scorer)(both doubtful), Marko Grujic (2/0 m), Adam Bogdan (0/0 g), Danny Ings (0/0 f), Oviemuno Ejaria (2/0 m)

Chelsea FC: no absences

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[jackierubberleg]

9 hours ago, neilovan said:

Having read through the posts a few thing spring to mind.

1) Liverpool look flat and out on their feet. This playing style of Klopp and Simeone eventually takes its toll. These teams need to find a more economical way to win. I call it 'match-stress'. It's the cumulative effect of playing very tough, close  games week after week. Eventually players are mentally and physically drained. Performance drops off and the team slumps. And it's not like you can bring in quality fresh replacements, because your squad just does not have the quality depth. I think Liverpool will fall away in the later half of the season. The big squads (Man CIty, Arsenal, Chelsea, Man United will surge away). I think Chelsea win easily on Tuesday night.

2) For me Southampton are a really strange teams. They blow hot and cold all the time. WIn when you expect them to lose and get hammered when you don't expect it. I think Swansea are flying, after winning at Anfield. Add Saints really poor away form to the equation and I think Swansea win this.

3) How can Moyes sell van Arnoldt ? How can he sell him to Crystal Palace ? Just insane ! Has he thrown in the towel ? To me this is one of the most bizarre transfers I have ever seen. I feel sorry for Sunderland fans who have one of the most clueless managers in football in charge. He's turned Sunderland into a last stop for Everton and Man United rejects.... Next he will make a swap deal .... Defoe for Benteke,  which Sam Allerdyce will say  'YOU ARE' !. Just amazing to me that these people get these million pound a year jobs....

 

 

Totally agree with your take on Liverpool at present, Neil. A couple of months ago Liverpool were joy to watch and a threat to any team. In the past month they have been awful, their only win in seven games coming against Plymouth.

The results are not the problem here, it's the way they are performing. Felippe Coutinho has not come back great from injury. Sturridge appears to be a player not prepared to get stuck in at crisis time. I could go on. They look disjointed on the field, lacking leadership.

The slick, crisp passing game is gone at present and Jurgen Clopp's persona has gone from the jolly. bubbly joker to a man becoming increasingly agitated at the criticism level at him and the team. The teams confidence looks severely dented. Had Brendan Rodgers found himself in this position during his tenure at Anfield, the axe would have fallen by now.

Regarding tonight's fixture. The very fact that Klopp is considering Sado Mane to play in this game is the act of an increasingly desperate man. The African nations cup will certainly have taken its toll and the player should be given a rest.

Based on what I have witnessed in recent times Chelsea are a standout bet at 2/1 to win this game. Antonio Conte goes to Anfield with a fully fit squad and he knows that four points or better from their next two games will go a long way towards securing the league title for Chelsea. I think you would have to be an ardent Liverpool fan to accept the 8/5 on offer about the home win.

For me it's Chelsea at 2/1

[betcatalog]

Liverpool has the best offensive line with 51 goals assets. Total has 14 to 22 over 2,5 and 15 to 22 goal goal and home has 7 to 10 over 2,5 and Goal goal . Chelsea has the third best attack in the Premier and the best defense with just 15 conceded goals, which receives less than one goal per game. Total has 14 to 22 over 2,5. the Liverpool game favors the scoring, the two teams score with ease and can score both today
LIVERPOOL FC vs CHELSEA FC @@ Both team to score, odds 1.80

The Sunderland has the second worst attack and the third worst defensive line with 42 conceded goals, while Spurs have the second best defense with 16 gola goal. The home has 13 to 22 over 2,5 and 8 to 11 over 2,5 home and Tottenham away is 8 out of 11 goal goal
SUNDERLAND AFC vs TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR @@ +2.50 Over, odds 1.71

[vasilli07]

Tough round of fixtures. Maybe Burnley DNB for me.

[Icongene]

1 hour ago, vasilli07 said:

Tough round of fixtures. Maybe Burnley DNB for me.

Have taken this @2.05 too good to not have a look given Leicester are a shambles of late.

Edited January 31, 2017 by Icongene

[neilovan]

2 hours ago, Icongene said:

Have taken this @2.05 too good to not have a look given Leicester are a shambles of late.

I think that the Burnley win HT/FT is a good bet here at 4 to 1. Leicester are in crisis and the Ulloa situation cannot be helping. To me its beyond amazing how they won the premier league last year. All credit to them, probably the greatest sporting upset in our lifetimes. But they are a 'one trick pony' that has been badly found out this season. Teams, coaches, players , tacticians make adjustments. Leicester have not ! 

[immortal--]

I was going to play Leicester DNB, but with so many comments here, I'll not play them

[andrewcalo]

@Mindfulness any thought on how your boys might get on away to Bournemouth?

A tipster I respect fancies you on the draw or win, only low stakes though...

Big Sam has to come good sooner or later.

[Neubs]

I´m on WestBrom DNB and Tottenham -1.5 today.

WestBrom in good Form and in last Games against M´brough they looked really good. Also they have this season amazing statistic against teams who are lower placed as themselve.  With only 1 Lose in Mid of September against Bournemouth and all other games where ending in Draw or Win for them.

Tottenham also good priced. They have a really good teamworking Squad, today with a total different Starting XI then at FA-Cup at Weekend - with Kane, Alderweireld and Rose back. And thats against a Sunderland team who are selling one of his best Player van Aarnholt and must again build a total new Defensive Line for today while Djilobodji also missing by suspension. It means "new" Defensive Line and the situation that Sunderland now must played little bit offensive if he wants to grabing some points - against a superb counter team from Tottenham who are playing as a team really good.

Thats my bets for today - both with medium Stakes.

[neilovan]

21 minutes ago, Neubs said:

I´m on WestBrom DNB and Tottenham -1.5 today.

WestBrom in good Form and in last Games against M´brough they looked really good. Also they have this season amazing statistic against teams who are lower placed as themselve.  With only 1 Lose in Mid of September against Bournemouth and all other games where ending in Draw or Win for them.

Tottenham also good priced. They have a really good teamworking Squad, today with a total different Starting XI then at FA-Cup at Weekend - with Kane, Alderweireld and Rose back. And thats against a Sunderland team who are selling one of his best Player van Aarnholt and must again build a total new Defensive Line for today while Djilobodji also missing by suspension. It means "new" Defensive Line and the situation that Sunderland now must played little bit offensive if he wants to grabing some points - against a superb counter team from Tottenham who are playing as a team really good.

Thats my bets for today - both with medium Stakes.

Moyes may be negative, but he is not stupid ! He should set Sunderland up and let his guys have a full go. Sunderland can't defend for 90 minutes and win. This squad/team is just not capable of doing this.  SO realistically this game is a free shot. May as well give yourself a chance to win (and possibly lose 4-0), rather than defend  like a trojan, and lose 1-0. 

Also, the fans watching a defensive display that is poor, will really get on aggravated  quickly. You can't underestimate the psychological damage to players when they are 3-0 down inside 30 minutes and fans are walking out. But if Sunderland would give it a real go, fans would see this, and could relate to it. Better to die on your feet than live on your knees !

I expect a bucket of goals in this game .... hopefully Moyes throws of his negative blanket !

 

  

[Mindfulness]

1 hour ago, andrewcalo said:

@Mindfulness any thought on how your boys might get on away to Bournemouth?

A tipster I respect fancies you on the draw or win, only low stakes though...

Big Sam has to come good sooner or later.

I'm going to wait for the lineups before I decide whether to get involved or not as Dann, Schlupp and McArthur are all injury doubts. Also want to see if Zaha plays. Betting on Palace here would be a play on hope rather than expectation. Low stakes is sensible, normal stakes with a view to cashing out in-play is also an option.

Technicals aren't great, ELO over last 2 games favours Bournemouth but Palace without Zaha in that period.

Let's see what the teams are then maybe a leap of faith, in a season of scant value you have throw in a couple of conjuring tricks, maybe this is one.

[Icongene]

Sunderland, under the management of Moyes will never set up to 'have a go'. EVER.

He is the definition of the defensive dinasaur aka Alladyce etc.

I can see Spurs winning it tonight but Sunderland will be compact and set up to frustrate trying to stay in the game so they have a chance in the 2nd half. Don't see Spurs running away with it at all. 

Edited January 31, 2017 by Icongene

[Mindfulness]

AFC Bournemouth V Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace +0.50 @ 1.806 (Matchbook)

Dann, McArthur & Zaha all make the starting lineup, bench looks good.

Not much to add other than this one is dicey, sometimes you have to mix it up with these kinds of bets. Guessing when a team's form will change is always difficult, tonight is an opportunity for Palace, let's see if they can pickup somekind of positive result here.

 

[arsenalfh]

Liverpool v Chelsea

Chelsea have been riding their luck a bit lately converting their shots at a very high rate. Klopp has an exceptional record against the top 6 times losing just once and I don't think that's a coincidence. Liverpool are suited to playing bigger teams much like his Dortmund side were as they tend to have less possession and can use their press to catch teams on the counter attack. Although they have faltered a bit recently they've had to do a lot of squad rotation with cup games and now back with their full first team available (Mane on the bench) I think they're the value here. The draw no bet on Liverpool at home looks a good play at the prices.

Liverpool (0) @ 1.83 BetVictor

[vasilli07]

No favourites won today.

[sajtion]

it's certainly good night for the bookies

[betcatalog]

West Ham has 12 to 22 goal goal while City has 15 to 22 goal goal overall in the league, while away from home has 9 to 11 over 2,5. Manchester City as easily score so easily accept goals behind, yet the team has not assimilate the philosophy of Guardiola and easily accepts goal, I expect open game where will score both teams
WEST HAM UNITED vs MANCHESTER CITY @@ Both team to score, odds 1.70