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Double. 4.05. South. Russco. 6/1...... held on for last place. 8.55. Leic. See the Sea. 11/2 singles & double Good luck all

We’re a month away from one of the biggest betting handicaps of the flat season in the Sky Bet Ebor at York and with some quiet racing this week I thought it would be a good idea to have a thorough look at the race with the weights out now. The Ebor has some fond memories for me and is one of my favourite punting races of the entire season. I was working as a settler at Ladbrokes head office in Harrow as a twenty year old back in 1983 when the owner of a certain Jupiter Island, Mr Stan Threadwell phoned to enquire about a price about his improving three year old for the forthcoming Ebor. He took the 50/1 offered and then told the telephonist that a certain Lester Piggott would ride! The local William Hill betting shop (remember this is pre internet - showing my age here!) was a sight at lunchtime with everyone from Ladbrokes head office from the settlers to the managers queuing to have their bet at 50/1 with them. Piggott was duly booked and he did the business before going on to prove how well handicapped he was by winning the Japan Cup three years later for trainer Clive Brittain. Happy memories! Then there was the time I backed Guy Harwood’s winner Primary at 16/1 an improving three year old owned by Khalid Abdullah at a nice price but was away during August on a lads holiday in Rhodes and didn’t get the result till two days later again pre internet days with no mobile phones with the only way to obtain the result was to wait till the day after the result to pick up the daily English newspaper. He duly obliged under Grenville Starkey at 6/1. How times have changed. Anyway enough of my ramble down memory lane and let’s look at next month’s handicap run over just short of fourteen furlongs and a much classier event then it ever was with the prize money topping half a million pounds. A maximum of twenty two can run and looking at the last ten runnings the lowest rated horse to get a run has been (2021 first) 101, 97, 105, 102, 101, 98, 99, 98, 93, 96. You can see from those figures that from the last five years any horse rated under 100 is unlikely to get a run and for that reason alone I’m dismissing all those horses rated 98 or lower. The last three year old to win the race was Aiden O’Brien’s Mediterranean back in 2001 and it’s extremely difficult for a three year old to actually make it into the final field nowadays with the only one to have made the cut in the last ten years being O’Briens Fields Of Athenry who was rated 115 in 2015 finishing 5th. Eighty one have been left in at the latest declaration stage but as mentioned earlier I’m dismissing all those from number 52 (Not So Sleepy) downwards making it a slightly more manageable task. Brian Ellison’s Tashkan heads the weights off of 10-3 and that looks a formidable task and is hard to fancy especially as he’s one that needs to get his toe in and with the last ten years going reading (2021 first) good, soft, good to firm, good to firm, good, good, good, good, soft, good to soft it’s hard to predict what the ground is likely to be come the 20th August especially with the unpredictable Summer we’re having. Current ante-post favourite is the Irish trained Earl Of Tyrone who’s chasing a four timer for excellent trainer Paddy Twomey. He’s risen 24lb for those wins. He’s rapidly improving and a very interesting runner. If you like him though you have to give Joseph O’Brien’s Raise You a chance as he followed up a Curragh listed victory by chasing Earl Of Tyrone home in a listed contest at Limerick where he was slowly away and couldn’t get a run inside the final furlong and a half looking to my eyes to be unlucky. He’s 4lb worse off here but shouldn’t be three times the price in my opinion. Joseph O’Brien does have five others in the race mind so it’s hard to be sure if he is an intended runner. Of those from the O’Brien stable that should get into the race if they want to are Baron Samedi who’s probably not good enough whilst Okita Soushi flopped last time having been given far too much to do in what looked a very suspicious race at Leopardstown but had previously ran a blinder behind Get Shirty at Ascot and is better off at the weights here. Cleveland who has left his father’s stable to join Joseph’s having looked good when winning the Chester Cup prior to a second to Get Shirty (beaten 1 1/4L) in the Copper Horse Handicap at Royal Ascot (4lb better of now). I believe that he’s been aimed at the Melbourne Cup so am not sure how this race would fit into his campaign. Okita Soushi may be the value of the Joseph O’Brien team. William Haggas has three entered and as a dyed in the wool Yorkshireman would love to win this big prize for the first time. He has Hamish entered who hasn’t been seen since winning the group 3 Ormonde Stakes at Chester in May and is unbeaten in two starts at the track including the 3 year old ‘Ebor’ the Melrose Handicap three years ago. He was favourite last year until been withdrawn on the morning due to the drying ground. With 10-1 to carry and the same scenario regarding the ground a possibility he’s hard to put forward at this stage though if conditions were to suit he would be a player no doubt. Candleford is another Haggas entry who blitzed his opposition first time out this season at Royal Ascot though was a tad disappointing having gone up 13lb at Newmarket on his first try at this trip. Haggas’s third and most interesting runner for me is the Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum runner Gaassee who looked a pattern performer in the making when winning at York first time out this season and didn’t get the clearest of runs when third in the Old Newton Cup at Haydock on soft ground when a well backed favourite. He’s lightly raced having won four of his six starts and should appreciate stepping up a couple of furlongs here and has to be on the short list. Andrew Balding has six entered although only four have realistic chances of making the race. Moranda is a big price and rightly so the way he’s running (he needs it bottomless), Spirit Mixer has improved plenty this season but may have found the ceiling of his handicap mark now off of 100. Alounak ran third last year at 33/1 and is 5lb lower now so has each way claims at a similarly big price but hasn’t beaten a horse on his last two outings so is hard to fancy that much. The best chance Balding has of taking this contest is with Coltrane who looks an upwardly mobile stayer who has won his last two starts, his latest coming at Sandown in the listed Coral Marathon by ten lengths. He’s been pushed up 7lb for that run and will have to carry 9.13 if running here. He’s due to run in the Goodwood Cup next week and also holds an engagement in the Lonsdale Cup at the Ebor meeting so he certainly can’t be called a definite runner at present. Hughie Morrison’s Quickthorn was runner up in this last year and appears to have improved further this season winning a group 3 and group 2. He’s 8lb higher now than when 2nd last year and would be a definite player if taking this route (he’s also entered in the Lonsdale Stakes at the meeting) although he loves some cut in the ground so is worth waiting with him. One horse who’s trainer has stated that this is his target is the David O’Meara trained Get Shirty. He’s had a great season winning four of his five starts rising 19lb on ground varying from good to firm to soft and looks to hold a good chance as along as the handicapper hasn’t got hold him yet. Daniel Tudhope will no doubt ride and with no doubts over the ground looks the value. Ralph Beckett’s Max Vega was 5th last year and is 3lb higher now. He’s been in good form in two starts this season and has each way claims though he couldn’t win last year off of a lower mark. Jessie Harrington has an interesting entry in Ever Present who is down to run in a listed race at Down Royal on Friday night. He hasn’t been seen since winning a valuable Leopardstown handicap last September but is lightly raced. He will however pick up a 4lb penalty if winning on Friday. Keep an eye on the Ger Lyons trained Licence in this race as he’s also entered and were he to win (or run well) could come into the equation as a lightly raced Juddmonte four year old. Summary :- It’s hard to be sure who is going to run here and is most definitely a race I will be coming back to when running plans are announced but at present I think it’s small each way bets on David O’Meara’s Get Shirty who’s been one of the handicap success’s of the season winning decent handicaps at Royal Ascot and Haydock, goes on any ground and is a planned runner according to his trainer and the Joseph O’Brien trained Okita Soushi who can be forgiven his latest run as he was left too far out of his depth and on previous Ascot form ties in with Get Shirty. I can’t see either being any bigger than the current top price of 16/1. That’s only with firms paying 4 places (both Skybet and Betfred are 5 places already but they are only 12/1) and are worth a small each way wagers now. I would also have Gaassee on my short list along with Quickthorn (if running). GET SHIRTY 1 point each way @ 16/1 Paddy Power/ William Hills 1/4 1234. OKITA SOUSHI 1 point each way @ 18/1 888sport 1/4 1234

R 10 blinding light 9/4 won

R8 smash ticket 5/2 won

For a bit of interest I've had a bet on Spain corners. England have hardly been put under any defensive pressure so far in the tournament whereas Spain have racked up 32 corners in their group matches. Admittedly 17 were against Finland but they still notched up 6 and 9 against Germany and Denmark respectively. Provided Spain are chasing the game, there could be a chance of a few corners being conceded by England. I have backed over 6.5 Spain corners at 3/1 (skybet).

I wouldn’t favour level stakes for my own betting simply because of the wide range of odds involved but I do tend to stake to achieve broadly the same profit from all bets (subject to what I can actually get on). It might be worth a simple comparison between level stakes, level returns and level profits. If anyone did a detailed analysis and came up with the “perfect” staking plan it might fall foul of what I believe is called back fitting, e.g. would have worked for what has happened so far but might not for what happens next. I agree with the notion (for most systems) that there might be more gain from time spent trimming off a few losing bets rather than over-finessing the approach to staking.

RED LACEWING 6 30 NASS 1/5 PT WIN 15/1

I've been involved in gambling, on and off course, for even longer than McLarke and I would wholeheartedly agree with him. The problem that the originator is facing is not his profit - he is already making a level stake profit of +16 points, which is good - it is his expectations. His strike rate is ok, but could be better and he needs to focus on the number of losers that he backs. and the stakes that they carry. If he can do that, and I can, then he will see that level stakes or considered stakes is the only way to go. Money management is crucial and you only get grey hairs and problems with most, probably all, forms of staking plans especially those that depend on any form of retrieval. Of course, it goes without saying, that a solid and realistic bank roll is required and your betting pattern should never put the bank under severe pressure.

Saratoga 2)R2) Evoking 7/4 nb nr Maria's fortune won Will be odds on but clear best 3) Aunt Virginia won Lost and wasa bit unlucky in a headbobber last time compensation awaits? R4) Pure Bode 15/4 won Good 2nd last time and has the best overall form. Good chance R5)Naimero Seiz 15/4 lost 2 1/2 lengths second on debit clocking some good sectionals and top jockey booked . Hopefully can go one better 1)R6)Happy farm 5/4 nap won Won last time going clear with the 2nd in a very good time 4)R7)Hey there lost Again a good 2nd last time puts hey there in with a good chance 3)R8 Smash ticket won Won easily last time by 11 lengths has a good chance of following up R9 She's a Mia 2nd Another unlucky one last time compensation awaits? R10) Binding light won Yankee R1 Evoking nb nr R4 Pure Bode won R6 Happy farm nap won R8 Smashticket won Luck

I do like a couple of upsets today. Both involve Spanish players. Bautista Agut not playing particularly well at the moment, and has hardly played on grass. Up against a decent player in Jaun Pablo Varillas. This could be pretty close, as I don't think Agut is 100% fit. I think Carreno Busta loses to ALex Molcan. Busta not playing great, against an up and coming 24 year old, who has good clay court form. Two low priced favorites I do like today are Begu and Bondar both to win. I'll take them as a double,

Last month's champ McG has made a bid for repeating the feat with a win in leg 2. He takes over at the top of the table, with last week's winner Elliott in 2nd spot. Tonight's leg 3 is PLO which could turn the table on its head again. Game is open for registration and starts at 8.10pm, plus 20mins late reg as usual

No surprise that this event has a pretty weak field to it, as players either a) rest after The Open and/or b) save themselves for the Fedex Cup playoffs in a few weeks time. That said here are my selections for my Fantasy Golf squad with prices from Bet365 as a reference: Cameron Tringale 28/1 Cam Davis 25/1 Joohyung Kim 30/1 Sahith Theegala 22/1 Adam Hadwin 22/1 Chris Gotterup 40/1

Newbury. Single. Puffable........... 6/4 Going with a couple of Mr Ralph Becketts interesting new comers. Double. 1.50. Sand. Bateman Bay. 11/1....... 5th 6.38. Newb. Bright Side Girl. 11/1 singles & double Good luck all.

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Staking is an interesting topic of discussion that's for sure. From my perspective, I can't get on with level staking because by definition it suggests all bets are equal, when it's probably reasonable to suggest one even money bet is a better proposition than another and also for the reason @harry_rag suggests which is the counterintuitive nature of staking the same amount on an even money shot as something that's ten to one - clearly the ten to one shot is far less likely to land and so you're more likely to lose your stake, whilst the same stake at shorter odds is more likely to win but also return a smaller amount. I can't get on with level returns either, because although they mitigate against the higher probability of losing your stake the higher the odds go, again they treat all bets as equal in their utility. Kelly staking on the other hand, although difficult to implement, makes the most intuitive sense. It balances the perceived value of a bet against its risk which allows for higher stakes at higher odds and also smaller stakes at smaller odds, as well as the much more accepted practice of higher stakes at smaller odds and smaller stakes at higher odds.

R7 Saratoga Hey there 2/1-5/4 lost

2.20 Southwell - Thermal E.way 12/1 Bet365

Harry, Clive Holt's staking plan is extremely logical. I've used it for years and the sense is apparent.

For tomorrow, I like two underdogs in Stricker to beat Ramos at 3.04 with Pinnacle and Parry to beat Putintseva at 3.41 with Pinnacle. Stricker always plays well at home, while Parry looked good against Davis in the previous round. Not favorites by any stretch, but the odds look too high to me.

On Springs 13.00 Worcester 7/2 Bet365

6.15 Limerick Cluan Dara ( each way ) 18/1 Bet 365

Peterson +1.5 [email protected] to beat Kontaveit at pinnacle. Kontaveit is not the kind of player I would trust on clay, she can easily lose a set if not the match.

There in lies the problem, it is very difficult to know the value of each bet, there is too much randomness. I have tried Kelly staking, making some very nice profits before being wiped out when the inevitable losing run comes along.

Excellent write ups @StevieDay1983 , as a Sheffield United fan, we will no doubt miss Morgan Gibbs-White, but the signing of Tommy Doyle looks good. We are also reputed to be close to signing Reda Khadra from Brighton which will also be a major boost. problem as always is not creating chances but having the strikers to take them, looks like we will be relying on the youngsters stepping up from the academy (we have a few promising youngsters coming through). We got off to an awful start last season and almost made it, better start in the first 10 games or so and we should be up the top end for the season. We don't need to sell but don't exactly spend either, at a press conference they stated that they would be looking at loan signings and academy youngsters 'in the main'. Your estimate of 4th is about right, but I'm hoping for a little more. Finally, WBA 5th - with Steve Bruce in charge, can't see that myself, he is far too negative tactically, tries not to lose rather than trying to win.

England v Spain today and I think this is a closer call than the markets predict, even with England drifting overnight (Spain were as big as 16/5 to win but now 14/5.) This game seems a prime candidate to consider the draw/penalties angle. Given that 11 out of 13 draws in the sample of International tournament games I looked at went to pens there's probably more value in the latter. I've been matched on the draw at 3.8 and am on the game going to penalties at 11/2 with Lads. Though last time I forecasted a close game for England they destroyed Norway 8-0! Not sure about the headers angle on this game given I see goals being at a premium. 9/5 feels ok at best, might wait till the game goes in play and hope that the next goal to be a header bet is available at 19/5. The no goal/no bet angle makes that seem appealing for this game.

3rd. Returns £32

I've been betting for over 40 years and have never seen a staking plan that beats levels stakes.

Been looking at the top scorer/golden boot market. There are 7 runners with 2 or more goals so far. Mead (England) 5 - best price 1/2 Russo (England) 3 - best price 40/1 Popp (Germany) 3 - best price 14/1 Geyoro (France) 3 - best price 12/1 Leuchter (Holland) 2 - best price 66/1 White (England) 2 - best price 11/1 Angeldal (Sweden) 2 - best price 50/1 Not much appeal in taking 1/2 about Mead not getting caught. Russo price would be interesting if she is in contention to start. PP would allow me 25p if I wanted to take that bet! Geyoro's goals all came in the opener against Italy and I can't get excited about her prospects at that price. Leuchter, like Russo, might be interesting if she starts which is possible given Martens is out with injury and Miedema still a doubt with Covid but I don't see the goals flowing for Holland from here on in. White so-so at the price, Angeldal not really an out and out goalscorer. The one that appeals to me is Popp at 14/1 Skybet (12/1 Betway) and I've had a bet on that. She's scored in every game so far and has a good chance of adding to that tally against Austria, along with a strong chance of at least making the semi finals.

Todays selections 07/20/2022 15:05 CATTERICK Liangel Hope 07/20/2022 18:08 SANDOWN Pledge Of Honour 07/20/2022 18:25 LEICESTER Doomsday 07/20/2022 18:38 SANDOWN Mrs U S A 07/20/2022 18:55 LEICESTER Taaqat 07/20/2022 19:08 SANDOWN Autumn Festival 07/20/2022 19:25 LEICESTER Carrigillihy 07/20/2022 20:25 LEICESTER Misscall 07/20/2022 20:40 SANDOWN Happy

Sth 220 Al Gaiya 11/1 £10 ew bet365

1.35 linfield talamanca 10/1 £10 e/w bet365

lost -£180 july +£872 1st oct

6.45 Limerick 4 Gonedairy EW 100/1 bet365

Maykir 3.30 Southwell £10 E/W 14/1 bet365

58/58 Bank @ £38.70 (£10.00 banked)

Brideswell Lad 20.15 Limerick 8/1 Bet365

Many in the media were saying that the horse had its best chance of winning in a long time so you were spot on in your deliberations; It looks to me as though the horse is really a 6 furlong horse, so may be it will pop in at big price over shorter. Sorry you lost

Fingerlakes R1 Daredevil blue 5/4 won Scratch last run and that puts daredevil blue firmly in the picture R2 Royal realm nap 4/5 lost Won pulling up last time Should be good enough to follow up R3 Croatian 11/10 lost This is between Croatian and coach bahes preferring the class of Croatian to tell R4 Eight weeks long 7/2 nr 3 1/2 lengths second is the best form on offer.Had a squeak R5 Melissa's smile6/1 won Melissas smile just edges it with the top speed figure R6 Runabout 11/8 nr Good third the time before in slightly higher grade gives Runabout a good chance R7 Holy Cowboy 8/1 won Alvaroda picks cowboy so I'm going with the jockey 3)R8 litter box 9/1lost Pulled 8 lengths clear with the winner last time giving him a good chance to go one better 2)R9endlesss crusade NB 6/5 nr ridden out to win last time looks like good goodnight bet Yankee R2 Royal realm (nap) 4/5 lost R3 Croatian 11/10 lost R8 litter box 9/1 lost R9 endless crusade 6/4 nb lost