Labrador

Many thanks for the heads up, Perfect Storm . Have only just read this but still manged to get a bit on at 50/1 (Hills on line 12 PENCE offered). Still a bit available with Unibet. Your posts made for excellent and interesting reading. It was good of you to take the trouble. I was reminded of a great killing about 10 years ago when it was not widely known that Weymouth players were refusing to turn out in a Conference home match against Rushden & Diamonds. It was possible to load up on both fixed odds and spreads before the bookies got wind. Weymouth kids lost 9-0 at home!

The National League have decreed that Concord will not be allowed to participate in the play-offs - hence the seemingly big price.

I can endorse Darran's view about Kidderminster. There is no logical or sane reason why their price would have shortened. Their so-called marquee signing, Dan Bradley, has been bought back by Fylde. The only replacement is a loanee who failed to get into Brackley's team. Kidderminster are threadbare. Their decent loanee, George Waring, has departed, so their only forwards are Joe Ironside (recently returned from a loan spell at York where he couldn't make the starting XI) and Ashley Chambers who currently couldn't hit a barn, let alone a barn door. The only other striker, Kane Richards, has a three match ban for man-handling the referee last week. They have no manager - owner, football agent and chairman, Colin Gordon, has taken over the role aided and abetted by over-the-hill journeymen players Russ Penn and Jimmy O'Connor. They will struggle to fill the bench and have no players who can come on and make any impact. All things being equal, Telford should win at a canter - although this league is a nightmare to predict this season. Caveat emptor!

I'll be at the game and can tell you that Kidderminster have a fairly small squad so there cannot be many changes. It is possible that the two strikers, Chambers and Ironside, are not in the starting XI and perhaps Lee Vaughan will be given a break. However, these player may still be on the bench. Their potential replacements are Dan Bradley (a regular, goal-scoring attacking midfielder/striker) and Kane Richards who has come off the bench several times this season and found the net a couple of times. Vaughan's potential replacement would be Sam Austin at wing back. He is excellent going forward and crosses really well. Atherstone Town have just been put out of the FA Vase by Coventry Utd and really should be given the runaround on Harriers big, wide pitch. Kiddie's manager, Neil McFarlane, is a very vocal, demanding guy - unlike the passive wet lettuce leaf John Eustace who happily moved to QPR in the close season to be assistant to Steve McLaren (they are well suited). McFarlane will have been furious at Kidderminster's tepid display at Chester on Tuesday when they lost for the first time this season. I suspect there may be a backlash and a very rapid start against today's opposition. I've backed Kidderminster -2 on the handicap at 7/5 and also HT/FT at 8/13.

The same also goes for Kidderminster and Chorley who have to start their play-off campaign earlier than Harrogate and Brackley, as the 2nd and 3rd placed sides wait until the 4th to 7th placed sides have sorted themselves out. With the play-offs starting only next Wednesday, the teams most likely to rest players today are Kidderminster, Stockport and Chorley. The best value opponents of those three clubs today are Alfreton at 9/2 away at Chorley. Totally agree about Southport at Spennymoor - had already backed them at 6/1 before reading this thread. Have also put York, Alfreton, Bradford PA, Southport and Darlington in a canadian and also an accumulator by way of opposing the paper favourites whose odds do not reflect for them the unwanted/pointless nature of today's games (apart from Spennymoor who are simply shot to bits and will not make the play-offs).

Let's hope the weather at Evesham warms up a bit before 3pm Saturday .

Elementary

Top quality yet again, Darren

Whilst Glenn Tamplin's activities virtually demand "egg on face", completely agreeing with Darren it's hard to oppose Billericay, and there is some chance that they could really run riot. Since their opening home reverse (0-1 v Kingstonian) they have scored 4 or more goals in 8 of their 13 succeeding home games. They have had a home replay in each of the FA Cup and FA Trophy, scoring 6 on each occasion. I've decided to play on the spreads and have bought Billericay's goal rush at 30 (Sporting Index). Have also bought the goal minutes of their defender Rob Swaine at a cheap 4 (Sporting Index). He nearly scored in injury time in the first leg and has actually scored since then in the home Trophy replay against Bury Town. Billericay seem to score plenty of headed goals so have also bought total match headed goal minutes at 32 with Spreadex. In this market Leatherhead's Jack Midson could also come to the party.

I can echo that - they were roundly booed by their own fans who were disgusted by such a tepid performance. It looks like Bignot has a massive job on his hands and, notwithstanding the closed doors friendly in the week, if the home fans start moaning again today, unpredictable Boreham Wood should profit. I've actually gone for a spread bet here with a sell of the time of Boreham Wood's 2nd goal at 76.

I think there's just enough in the price of 7/2 to have a modest dart on Bodmin Town this evening in their FA Cup replay at Bideford. The first leg was a 1-1 draw, when Bodmin (two steps below in the non-league pyramid) conceded a very early soft goal and then reportedly had most of the possession and two disallowed goals before gaining a deserved late equaliser. Bodmin had already had 3 matches to get to this stage of the Cup. They were all straight away wins. Bodmin have played once since the first leg against Bideford - winning away yet again (6-1 in the FA Vase). They are unbeaten in 5 games in September (winning 4). Bideford have lost their last 3 home league games (Southern Div 1 S & W) including their match (v Wimborne) since the game at Bodmin. Bideford v Bodmin Town (7/2 Betfred).

Excellent previews, lads. I was all over Blyth Spartans as soon as the 3/1 emerged on Wednesday - frankly anything above 6/4 is likely to be a gift. How the bookies can make the home side odds on is beyond belief (like Tranmere, as Darran remarks too). Kidderminster are literally not the same side as last season. They have signed injured players (Lee Vaughan), lost the entire defence, lost their star man (Arthur Gnahoua) to Shrewsbury, have injury doubts tomorrow over last season's stalwarts James McQuilkin and Ryan Croasdale, not to mention their expensive signing Dan Bradley who has only featured spasmodically and is again doubtful tomorrow. One of the rare decent loan signings, Will Longbottom, was injured in the Cup tie last weekend and has returned to Doncaster. Of the others from last season Joe Ironside and Elton Ngwatala are either carrying injuries or are disinterested (it's hard to tell). Kidderminster persist in playing square balls across the pitch in their own half with little invention or purpose. Opposing teams sit back and relax until the inevitable attempt at a champagne pass gives them the ball, whereupon they strike on the counter against a defence which is shaky in the extreme. Blyth could do some serious damage if they are as decent as reports suggest, and 15/2 for Blyth on the -1 handicap is also great value.

Agree completely - the bookies amazingly have Kidderminster as favourites here! They have no settled defence whatsoever and are struggling to come to terms with the ludicrous decision to release last year's skipper and centre back, Keith Lowe (now performing excellently at Macclesfield). That followed the transfer of Jordan Tunnicliffe and Zaine Francis-Angol to Fylde, plus the release of Jarryd Hodgkiss to Macclesfield. They brought in Daly from Solihull Moors but after a handful of games he had already had enough and decided to return to Solihull! They signed Lee Vaughan from Tranmere but he is unfit and won't feature until November at least. Shambles. I don't read anything into last weekend's 3-0 win at hapless Southport, since the previous home draws against Boston and Curzon Ashton were tepid in the extreme, and it was a poor game at Haig Avenue between two very poor sides. I expect Harriers' old boys, Reece Styche and Daryl Knights, to invoke the law of sod this evening and think 2/1 for a home win is cracking value. Also 17/4 for Tamworth (-1 handicap) looks worth a punt too. Only slight concern is the potentially wet and windy weather forecast this evening (which could be especially a factor for Harrogate at Southport which can be bleak on the balmiest of days).

I am really surprised that Harrogate are not favourites at Southport. The home side seem to have come off the rails in their last 2 games against Stockport and Kidderminster. After their 6-0 thumping of Southport, Stockport returned to type losing away from home on Saturday. After two tepid home draws Kidderminster, without 4 first team regulars then proceed actually to score 3 goals in a game and keep a clean sheet. Says how poor Southport were, since conceding 9 goals without reply to the likes of Kidderminster and Stockport is hardly a ringing endorsement. Harrogate had a couple of disappointing results against high flyers Brackley and Salford but showed they are still in pretty fair form with a 5-1 drubbing of Telford on Saturday. Harrogate seem to be meeting Southport at just the right time and 15/8 looks a massive price (totesport/Betfred) to me. I also feel 9/2 on the handicap (-1 Harrogate) is good value (Coral, Stan James, Ladbrokes).

Thanks, Harry . Nice to grab two of Warrington's three tryscorers. Whilst Wigan's rookie wingers may have been a little naive defensively as expected, Liam Marshall's 4 try haul definitely points to him as an exciting player for the future!