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Bang on

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Bang on last won the day on October 24 2022

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  1. Had a small bet on 8.45 Ling - Parisiac - 11/2 - don't often bet in apprentice handicaps, but this one is falling in the weights (16lbs lower than it has won off within the last year). It is only a 4 year old, and wears blinkers 1st time. Don't know much about the apprentice jockey, but it is a small field so hopefully gets a good run. Trainer Alice Haynes (part owner) is in reasonable form, and at the price looks fair value.
  2. I check his bets every day ... just to oppose him if possible. His followers make the market for others IMO. Yes, occasionally he has a winner ( I would say virtually impossible to get the price), but in general I find that his strike rate is poor. TODAYS selections TACITUS - is 0/16 , has a 5lb claiming jockey on, last ran on the AW in April finishing 7th..... needs a massive turn around and a huge dollop of faith and crossed fingers. No bet in race for me. SPIRIT OF BREEZE - at least trainer Gary Moore is in some form, but my preference is for the Hughie Morrison runner ASCARI, drops back in trip (sprinters in pedigree), is in a handicap for the 1st time, decent jockey, and trainer is 5 wins from 16 in last 5 years (31%).
  3. AI will never be able to predict when owners and trainers are having a gamble. Don't fancy the price, don't try. Happens every day.
  4. 2.00 Yar - Alpha King - 5/2 4.00 Ayr - Yaaser - 3/1 5.10 Yar - Girl in the picture - 5/1 8.10 kemp - Balhambar - 11/4
  5. 5.35 Uttox - Dancingontheedge - 7/2 ... one from my tracker - for me it was a non-trier LTO when a beaten favourite. It was ridden at the back before taking a very scenic route and running an extra furlong to the others ... the trainers other runner won the race. It is Paul Nichols only runner at Uttoxeter where he has a 21% strike rate. He also has recent form of 2 wins , 3 placed, from 8 runners so is in form as well. Horse wears a tongue tie first time.
  6. 2.40 Strat - Animal - 9/4 - 1pt - Has won a bumper and a chase on todays soft ground so going no problem. The danger looks like Richard Bandey's runner (stable coming into form) Icaque de l'isle. 3.00 Plump - Le Patron - 15/8 - 1pt - A winner in France on soft going, and with top course jockey Jamie Moore riding for father Gary. 8.00 Wolv - Candy Warhol - 7/2 - 1pt - Yet to win for trainer Scott Dixon, drops in trip as well as from class 4 to class 5. Danger looks like Chookie Dunedin, who is 7/23 at Wolverhampton with 4 x CD wins. 3pts staked
  7. Mixed day, so nearly. Ginger mail - 2nd Barging Thru - WON Beautiful Crown - 2nd + 1.5pts on the day.
  8. Another hectic Saturday, with football taking up it's share of study. 3.20 Ayr - Ginger Mail - 9/4 (Hills) - 1pt - Trainer Nick Alexander's local course, and a course he does well at. This CD winner is only 1lb higher than for his last win. 7.00 Chelm - Barging Thru - 7/2 - 1pt - Beaten just over a length 4 weeks ago (the 1st 2 in the race have both won since), top course jockey Luke Morris rides. 8.30 Chelm - Beautiful Crown - 3/1 - 1pt - On a losing run of 12 (back to 2021), but is gradually dropping in the weights. I have kept an eye on this horse, and today it runs in a class 6, and the 2 races it has won were class 4 and 5. Slightly speculative with such a losing run, but I'm tempted. 3pts staked
  9. Are you liking the 'less is more' approach ?
  10. 3.00 Ling - Anisoptera - 5/2 - 1pt ... BF last time, this CD winner needs a stronger pace, and could get it today. 2nd 3.40 Font - Wewillgowithplanb - 10/3 - 1pt ... Drops back in trip and switches to fences, should suit. WON 4.00 Ling - Hill Station - 7/2 - 1pt ... Trainer Gary Moore's (top course trainer) only runner here today. 2nd -------------- 0.5pt EW double 3.10 Font - Kotmask - 10/3 (1/5 3 places) .... (G.Moore/J.Moore combo- top trainer and Jockey at course) 2nd 4.30 Ling - Galileo Glass - 3/1 (1/5 3 places) ... Trainer David Evans in good form, Adam Kirby (his son in law) rides today. 2nd 4pts staked Profit of 1.63pts on the day
  11. Apologies for not posting on Saturday @The Equaliser but I was 'at the races' and didn't have access to my computer. I don't bet on Sundays as I always take a day off to do something different and recharge. Monday I had very little spare time, and Tuesday I was 'at the races' again. I will try to post as often as possible with staking. ? I realise that I need to try and show my own bets a little more .. the only downside is that some days there are more bets than I would encourage (it's not a perfect world).
  12. Have a shortlist of 10 from the 28 races today, won't back them all, but have backed these. 1.50 Ling - Deed Pole - 11/10 - 1pt 5.05 Newb - Anti Bridgie - 4/1 - 1pt ---------------- 0.5pt EW double 2.25 Ling - First Company - 7/2 (1/5th 3 places) 8.15 Newc - Gunnerside - 9/4 (1/5th 3 places) 3pts staked
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