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I've rated about 6 or 7 diff races and they are all bunched up ..I.e on my master ratings I can have a top rated on 450 then the 2nd on 438 ...3rd on 425 etc ....on 4 races I rated the top 4 or 5 or 6 horses were.all within 10pts ...meaning there's no real value to warrant risking the money ....I didn't rate the plate as I don't tend to have much luck in those types of race ...they become like a,war of attrition after the 12f pole and its who lasts home better on the day so I can't be confident in the ratings ...its like 20 % guesswork and I don't like doing that ......I'm not even mega confident in the race I picked but it was better than all the others based on there's a chance hiya maite could improve considerably tomorrow so it was worth chancing it Normally I can find something but not today .....I mean there's £20000 races with 6 runners ??....just don't know what's going on ....entire meetings with 3 runners ....5 runners ...7 runners ....etc its not good I rated the 150 newc and strike red rated high but there's about 4 horses within close proximity who have a chance on old form but uncertain whether they run to form so with 7/2 on strike with 4 potential dangers it just doesn't appeal to me Factor in ground issues ..I.e form from from wolv and southwell translates well but not so much ling and kemp then the races just look messy and so open....I look for races where the top 2 or 3 are very strong and a bit ahead of rest of field with lots going in their favour then their prices are Inherently value but not tomorrow .....I've got to trust the ratings and they are saying its a crappy open day so just 1,race I guess ??

330 newc Rajinsky 8.9 6/1 Graphite 8.7 33/1 Island brave 8.3 20/1 OK Ted you've tempted me ....I'll try 3pt ew all 3 just for some action lol ?

2..55 NC nothing really stood out for me here very tricky even race imo i have had a small e/w on the Goldie trained 2nd string 40/1 shot ANNADALE. 3.30 NC unlike the above race i could have backed about 6 in this! My main bet and i really like it, should go close is 20/1 shot ISLAND BRAVE i do back a lot of horses that have run well in these big handicaps the previous year this horse ran a cracker to be 3rd a few ibs lower and a very hot Apprentice on top claiming a bit more off mmm not a 20/1 shot in my book. I also like ALRIGHT SUNSHINE e/w around 16's with any luck may go off bigger this horse ran very well at Ascot lto out seems to be running into form and i think only a matter of time before it will pick up one of these big races and looks one to follow. Ted wouldn't be Ted without a big fat juicy total outsider so it's a very small e/w play on 66/1 rag RED VERDON on old form has a squeak. 4.38 NC Class horse in the race has been off for 2 year and has changed stable but has never really done anything after a break but i just can't let this horse go unbacked at 28/1! SIRDANCEALOT. Best of Luck All

It's because when I get the ratings I don't just get 1 like above ....there's class ....recent form etc all next to each other so although when I post it looks like top 2 are clear....if all the other info isn't backing that up then I'll scrub the race ...I.e it looks like this .... Horse 1 8.4 class 65 recent 70 Horse 2 8.2 class 64 recent 68 Horse 3 8.0 class 68 recent 66 Horse 4 7.8 class 70 recent 66 Horse 5 7.7 class 69 recent 69 And there's a bit more too so I look at tge screen and scratch my head thinking what the hell so you can see above its at least a 5 Horse race if not more so although the first column looks OK....the whole picture looks crap from a value perspective ...whereas Horse 1 9.0 class 75 recent 90 Horse 2 8.7 class 73 recent 88 Horse 3 8.6class 65 recent 65 Horse 4 8.4 class 61 recent 77 Now that looks more like it !!!... if I can get 7/2 on top rated and say 10/1 ew on 2nd rated then I'd say that seems like a good bet considering ....so its not just 1 thing it's a compete package

Trends for the Northumberland Plate (Newcastle 3.30) Not 1st or 2nd last time, 1 fom 107. This leaves VALLEY FORGE and TRUESHAN Bottom 4 inthe weights, 0 from 31 This leaves TRUESHAN at 5/1, 6 places

I would think there is some good each way value at Newcastle with up to 7 places offered.

That's a real shame Rich was looking forward to your ratings in the 2 big handicaps at Newcastle esp Island Brave in the Northumberland Plate as i really fancy it to go well would have liked to have seen it high in your ratings.

Struggling to find any value,at all ...racing really needs to sort itself out or punters will migrate away .....bunched ratings...short prices ....I'll just try 1 race 7.00 donc Hiya maite 8.5 7/2 Pockley 8.2 10/1 Tricky race so I'll just try 4pt wins both and hope for a bit of luck

240 curr Lord dudley 8.6 7/1 ...4pt win Rough diamond 8.3 12/1 ....2pt ew Blairmayne 8.2 12/1 ....2pt ew

Newcastle 1.50 A dozen sprinters contest the opening race of ITV’s eight races today in a 6F class 2 handicap. The race has an open feel about it with Richard Fahey’s Strike Red the one that appeals. He rides the North Eastern track well winning two of his three races here and comes here on the back of a good 4th (beaten under a length)in a decent class 2 handicap at Hamilton. Only 4lb higher than his course and distance victory last September he looks the one to be with here. Michael Scudamore’s Rolfe Rembrandt and bottom weight Be Proud look dangers but Strike Red will do for me ridden today by the more than capable Oisin Orr. STRIKE RED 1 1/2 points each way @ 4/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234 Newmarket 2.05 Eleven two year old fillies have declared for the listed Maureen Brittain Memorial Empress Fillies Stakes run over 6F of the July course. George Boughey’s Believing is an interesting runner who ran runner up to the smart Mawj here on the Rowley course on her debut and landed the odds when slowly away at Wolverhampton 9 days later. She again had issues with the stalls at Royal Ascot when playing up for the Albany eventually been withdrawn. She’s smart but can we trust her at the gate? For that reason I’m with the Richard Hannnon trained Minnetonka who spread eagled her field on her racecourse debut at Salisbury a fortnight ago looking to all and sundry like a pattern performer and she’s worth a thick bet today. Ralph Beckett’s Lezoo impressed on her debut but that was at Bath, hardly a hotbed for juvenile talent whilst George Boughey’s other runner Malrescia is chasing a hat trick following wins at Hamilton and Lingfield. Minnetonka made a big impression on me at Salisbury and looks the one to be with today with Jim Crowley taking over from Pat Dobbs who’s got a full book of rides at Windsor this afternoon. MINNETONKA 3 points win @ 11/4 Coral/Ladbrokes Newcastle 2.25 A dozen sprinters assemble for the group 3 Chipchase Stakes. Glen Shiel has some fair track form (3 wins from 5 starts here) although hasn’t actually raced here since August 2020. He’s the best in at todays weights and looks likely to run a big race under usual pilot Hollie Doyle. Karl Burke’s Spycatcher is another for the shortlist dropping back to 6F and he has some good sprint form with first time cheek pieces employed today. The one I fancy though is one of the three three year olds in the field in the William Haggas trained Sense Of Duty. She was backed off the boards when winning a listed contest at Haydock last time, a race that has worked out particularly well with the runner up Flotus going on to place in the group one Commonwealth Cup and the third Benefit winning since. She has to step up again to win this group 3 contest but looks highly progressive and on her first all weather start is the one to beat. SENSE OF DUTY 2 points win @ 2/1 William Hill Newmarket 2.40 A disappointing turnout of just five and a weak race in prospect for the listed Fred Archer Stakes. Charlie Appleby sets a poser by running both Kemari, who flopped last time out at York and Rebels Romance who’s yet to run on the turf. The latter is the pick of William Buick so presumably the more fancied but I’m happy to take the pair on. I’m not a fan of Stowell for whom it appears Frankie Dettori has been jocked off by the Gosden’s and outsider Something Enticing has 15lb to find with top rated Rebels Romance. A matter of elimination leaves me with the 2020 winner Universal Order trained by David Simcock and he’s the tentative selection with Callum Shepherd in the saddle. UNIVERSAL ORDER 1 point win @ 4/1 BetVictor Newcastle 2.55 Run over just over two miles this is the Northumberland Plate Consolation handicap for horses that didn’t make it into the big one. Top weight Evaluation missed the big gig by one and tops the weight today looking the one they all have to beat. Let go by Sir Michael Stoute for just 30,000 guineas this ex Queen owned four year old has been a revelation since joining the Lanarkshire stable of Keith Dagleish winning four staying handicaps on the turf rising 22lb in the process. This son of Ascot Gold Cup winner Estimate ticks a lot of the boxes for this contest and he’s the one I want to be with. Hugo Palmer’s Zoffee is an interesting runner winning at Carlisle last time and should relish the step up two furlongs here and as a 132 rated hurdler could still be well treated off of 84 on the flat. Andrew Balding saddles a brace of runners who on their best form hold claims in Auriferous and Mellow Magic but it’s Evaluation for me with Callum Rodriquez, who’s ridden him on three of his four victories this season in the saddle. EVALUATION 2 points each way @ 13/2 William Hill 1/5th 12345 Newmarket 3.15 Next up at HQ is the group 3 7F Criterion Stakes where seven useful horses will be making their way to post. The key race here is the John Of Gaunt Stakes at Haydock from four weeks ago. Winner Pogo had Laneqash a nose back in second and Sunray Major a further half a length back in fourth. Pogo has to carry a 3lb penalty today which puts him at a disadvantage with his two rivals who both have claims today as Laneqash was having his first run for 246 days and Sunray Major met trouble in running. Both have decent chances but I’m more interested in the two three year olds here. Tom Clover’s Bass Player was 2 1/4L behind Hugo Palmers Ever Given last time out in listed company at Epsom and may struggle to turn the form around. The form has been boosted by the win of the runner up Oscula in listed company at Carlisle earlier this week and although this represents a step up in grade Ever Given is only officially 4lb off of the top rated Laneqash here and is very much an improver. Skybet and Betfred are paying a third place here despite only seven runners so if you can get on with either of those firms let’s go each way. EVER GIVEN 1 point each way @ 8/1 Betfred 1/5 123 Newcastle 3.30 The day’s big handicap is the Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate Handicap or as known by many as the Pitman’s Derby. A race I’ve always enjoyed over the years maybe not as much nowadays mind that it’s run on the all weather. Twenty have declared and as you would expect there’s an open feel about the race. Rajinsky would be on my short list with his recent Chester Cup form working out so well but stall 16 will make things difficult for him although horses have won from out there over the past including last years winner Nicholas T from stall 17. Alan King’s top stayer Trueshan heads the weights but this is a prep run for the Goodwood Cup and was beaten in this last year off of 113 (if taking his 5lb claimer’s allowance into account) and has to race off of a 7lb higher mark here and is overlooked. Andrew Balding saddles his progressive stayer Valley Forge who is another drawn out wide and has no experience of the all weather. If you like him then surely you must give a chance to the Mark and Charlie Johnstone trained Golden Flame who was beaten a head by him at Haydock in May and is now 2lb better off with his subsequent defeat put down to not staying 2m 4F at Royal Ascot. At four times the price he has to be part of the staking plan. Island Brave has had excuses for recent defeats and was third in this last year off of a 2lb higher mark so is another outsider who can outrun his odds. Sir Mark Prescott is still not really firing on all cylinders but saddles Summer’s Knight here who was highly progressive last season and has claims from a nice draw in stall 5. A tough handicap and I’ll play a couple small each way in Summers Knight and Golden Flame with the additional place terms. SUMMERS KNIGHT 1 point each way @ 18/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345 GOLDEN FLAME 1 point each way @ 25/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345 Curragh 3.45 Aidan O’Brien has thrown a spanner into the works here by taking out all of his colts (he had 10 entered up until the 4 day declaration stage) and supplemented at a cost of 75k his Epsom Oaks winner Tuesday. A multiple winner of this race O’Brien knows what it takes to win and I’ll take her to thwart the colts. The only negative is if the ground was to turn soft as there is a band of rain threatening the track over the weekend (although the clerk of the course seems to feel it’s likely to hit Saturday evening). The big threat to Tuesday is obviously the unlucky in running Derby third Westover who will now be ridden by Colin Keane rather than Rob Hornby who had a torrid run at Epsom when getting stopped in his run from a poor draw. Unless the ground changed dramatically I feel these two will battle the finish out with preference for the fairer sex. TUESDAY 3 points win @ 11/8 bet365

Those of us older than Mr Dettori and have known him since he was a teenager understand he is one of the true great actors. He invented "Happy Go Lucky, Frankie" and he is stuck with it. Its nothing like him. Its the only part he can play and the only part the public want him to play. I remember him a a plucky, ambitious, knowledge seeking, quite sensitive, quite dark, young chap. He's done well for himself. He takes hurt deeply. So it was no surprise to me that he gathered himself together to ride LEZOO to win the 14.05 at Newmarket today. He knows he has been too sloppy recently. You can bet this brilliant rider with be at his best in the next month as he has a big point to prove v John Gosden.

Of course .....the first 6 races I rated were coming up like the first example .....then there was x amount of races with 5 runners ...6 runners etc ...so overall from my perspective it looks crap .....I could just rate the races and have a guess and just have a bet anyway but I don't like risking money unless I think I've got a decent chance of a return .....they sometimes run like donkeys despite having fab ratings but that's racing lol ?....it frustrates the hell out of me when the the top rated in the 2nd example finishes 12th ???....all you can do is move on ...it happens ....... I really believe the reason I've done so well in past and that they perform well is because I only generally pick the strong races ....I discard probably 70 % of races and sometimes that's the reason I don't post .....if I've been working long shifts then rated 3 races which were crap and I've run out of time I'll just leave it for another day ...I'm not tempted to just stick the crap bets on because I want that holiday ..and those bets just get me bognor Regis (no offence Intended ??)....I'm sure it's nice lol

The amount of Charlie Appleby's odds on shots that have been turned over the last few days then surely there's some value backing against his atm .

English Raiders at The Curragh 1435 - Listed 1m 8 - The Acropolis R Moore / A P O'Brien 1505 - Railway Stakes (G2) 3 - Blackbeard R Moore / A P O'Brien 1545 - Irish Derby (G1) 5 - Lionel J Spencer / D Menuisier 8 - Tuesday R Moore / A P O'Brien 1620 - International Stakes (G3) 6 - Aikhal R Moore / A P O'Brien

summers knight 1/5 pt ew 18/1 exrta places in places 7 PLACED EW pogo 3 15 new 1/4 pt win 8/1 WON graphite 3 30 new 1/5 pt ew 40/1 UNPLACED midrarr 1 15 new 1/4 pt win 12/1 2ND P/L + 129.25 pt

Good luck !

As much as the first set didn't go to a breaker and the next two did, I'd say it's much more likely the first set goes to a breaker than subsequent sets. Once you get past the first set players can start to get affected by fatigue and start to make mistakes. Also you often see the player losing the first set on a breaker folding easily in the second due to the lesser chance of winning the match from a set down. I think you got value. The fact you didn't cash doesn't change that in my eyes. Place enough bets like that and you'll get ahead eventually.

Derby Forecast 4-2 pays 6.1/1 . ? Easy Money , Romeo was Magico & FC paid 7.45/1 ?

It was the aussie Rod Laver who were the last and only one on the mens side who achieved the feat of winning all 4 grand slams in a season way back and he did it twice.

Just the one winner but four places for a small loss of just under two points. Disappointed with Tuesday !

I like Berettini and Kvitova. I haven't check the draw, but for WTA is no need really. Kvitova to reach QF looks decent. She is at top form. Berettini improved his return game, and looks top strong to go deep in the tournament. Of course i can't pick him as winner because Djokovic and Nadal are there. Especially for Nadal i must remind that he has solid chances to go for all major in the season 2022, which is something incredibly difficult, and i can't remember who achieved that. If i go to google to search, i guess that this is going back decades. I expect many many upsets in all rounds. A lot of super talented young players are now active. I have small doubts about Alcaraz. He must prove who is. Don't tell me mad if i said that he is already heavily overtraining at the age of 19. But i am not sure. There are no guarantees in this life, no certainties neither, so lets see what Alcaraz will show to us xxxxxxx

dark majesty 1.15 power over me 1.25 surrounding 2.00 tribal art 3.30

A couple of small ew's in the Plate for me,using jocks Hart and Tart. N 330 Themaxwecan. 33/1 ewx 9 places Uber Cool. 23/2 ewx 9 places bet365

Having a bet I have placed only a few times over the years, the trixie. Newcastle. Single. 3.30. Graphite. 33/1. ew Trixie. 1.15. Arabian Warrior. 9/2..... 1st 1.50. Strike Red. 4/1..... unpl 2.25. Sense of Duty. 2 /1...... 1st Good luck all.

205 Newmarket - MISKA 14/1 ( £ back if 2nd , 3rd or 4th ) LAST 255 & 330 Newcastle small each ways on couple of Alan Kings Vase - CATBIRD SEAT 16/1 sky ( 6 places ) PULLED UP Plate - WHO DARES WINS 33/1 sky ( 7 places ) 16TH Not that much damage done to the wallet but shocking results & well done to Trueshan & Hollie Doyle with that much weight I didn't think they'd manage it ?

He said earlier because of the type of race it is long distance flat?

Zip very interesting with the famous Harry Davies aboard still claiming 5 lbs for Richard Fahey

? cheers

I will stick that race through in the morning ...I'm curious as to what it will throw up myself .....?

@Peter Yorkin a strong position with 6 days to go

8.20 Newcastle Amelia R 20/1 Bet365 EW

Just because it lost doesn't make it a bad bet

Second Collection 3rd, returns £30 for £10 profit. Nacho last.

It's a shame Roger didn't achieve that in the years of his absolute dominance (2004-2007)

Real Salt Lake vs Columbus Crew The next preview in our long line of previews for this weekend's MLS action is the 3am BST kick-off on Sunday morning between Real Salt Lake and Columbus Crew at the Rio Tinto Stadium in Sandy. The home team are heading into this game with their eye on displacing Los Angeles FC at the top of the Supporters' Shield table but they face a potential banana skin in an away side that have taken points from their last two regular season games. Real Salt Lake are flying this season with the team currently in 2nd place in the Western Conference and also 2nd in the Supporters' Shield overall table. Head coach Pablo Mastroeni has done a sterling job with this side and they have now won 4 of their last 5 league games. The 2-0 win at home to San Jose Earthquakes in their last league outing was a show of the squad's character to bounce back after the disappointment of the 2-1 loss away to Vancouver Whitecaps in the game previous to that win. The Claret and Cobalt return to the comforts of their home ground for this game where they have remained unbeaten this season and have won the last 4 league games played at this venue with clean sheets in three of those games. As the old saying goes, strikers win you games but the defence wins you a league title. Columbus Crew still find themselves struggling this season with the team sat in 11th position in the Eastern Conference and only 3 points off the bottom of the table. The good news is that the team is just 3 points off the play-off pace and they do boast up to 2 games in hand on the teams above them. If head coach Caleb Porter can settle the team's form down slightly then maybe they can push on up the table and into the top 7. The team has become synonymous with low-scoring games this season with 8 of the last 11 league games delivering less than a total of 2.5 goals scored. The team has now gone back-to-back games unbeaten but it is still just 1 win from the last 5 league games. They have only lost 1 of the last 4 away games though. What an enigma this team is right now! The bad news for Columbus Crew fans is that their team has failed to win on each of their last four visits to Real Salt Lake. This should be a game that Real Salt Lake will be looking to take the bull by the horns and grab the win. Crew are a tricky team on the road recently but they have still only won 2 of their last 7 away league games. I'm going to have the back the home team. Real Salt Lake to Win @ 1.88 with SBK Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.84 with SBK

Austin FC vs FC Dallas It's a Texas derby in the 2am BST kick-off on Sunday morning in the MLS when Austin FC face FC Dallas at the Q2 Stadium in Austin. Both of these sides are fighting at the top end of the Western Conference and a victory here would help them pile on the pressure on Los Angeles FC at the top of the table. Will either team show the courage to go for the win or will the two sides cancel each other out with a draw to consolidate their places within the play-offs? Austin FC might only be in their second season in the MLS but they can be proud of their current 3rd place in the Western Conference and just 3 points off the pace of Supporters' Shield leaders Los Angeles FC. Head coach Josh Wolff will have been delighted with the dogged 1-0 win his team picked up on the road against CF Montreal last time out. The team comes into this game at home full of confidence having only lost 1 of their 7 home games this season. One thing this Austin team knows how to do is find the opposition net. They have scored 29 goals in 15 league games and have only failed to score in 1 of their last 13 matches. As the team enters the halfway stage of the campaign you have to feel that they're not far off performing at the level required to be considered one of the favourites to take the MLS Cup this season. Perhaps the defence could just do with a little tightening. FC Dallas will be keen to extend their winning streak against Austin FC and take home the bragging rights in this Copa Tejas clash. Nico Estevez's men are in 4th position in the Western Conference and breathing right down the neck of their opponents for this game. The Burn have lost 3 of their last 4 league games unfortunately and that's hit their hopes of finishing top of the Supporters' Shield table. I'm not sure what's happened to the Dallas defence but they can't keep a clean sheet for love nor money right now with their shutout drought extending to five league games now. This is a Dallas team that is one of the best performers on the road though. They have only lost 1 of their last 6 away league games so you just can't rule them out on their travels. They also have a constant goal threat in the joint-top scorer in the MLS in Jesus Ferreira with his 9 goals so far. If you follow my previews on Premier League or Championship games then you'll know that derby matches always give me the nerves. I often just back the draw because they're so hard to call. This is no different. Yes, FC Dallas have the worse form heading into this game but they have a 100% win record in this fixture and their away form this season is solid. If anything I'd edge towards them sneaking a win here but I'll back the draw. Draw @ 3.70 with SBK Anytime Scorer: Jesus Ferreira @ 3.55 with Unibet

Result Windsor 01:40 SHUT UP AND DANCE.....1st..Evens rule 4 applies @10% Todays Profit = + 9.00 pts Current Years Profit 2022 = - 94.97 pts (Years Profit 2021 = - 197.65 pts.) (Years Profit 2020 = +17.50 pts.) (Years Profit 2019 = + 287.87 pts.) (Years Profit 2018 = + 90.52 pts.) (Years Profit 2017 = - 73.44 pts.) (Years Profit 2016 = + 437.86 pts.) (Years Profit 2015 = + 18.52 pts.) (Years Loss 2014 = - 30.20 pts.)  (Years Loss 2013 = - 105.06 pts.) (Years Profit 2012 = +127.65 pts.) (Years Loss 2011 = - 13.82 pts.)    (Years Profit 2010 = +166.01 pts.)  Bank = + 2521.78 pts.  Profit = + 2421.78 pts. Current Winning Run = 2

15:15 Newmarket—Ever Given 13/2 B365 Each-Way 16:38 Newcastle—Aleezdancer 16/1 B365 Each-Way 19:00 Doncaster—Desert Doctor 11/2 William Hill Each-Way Reserve 15:10 Chester—Navello 6/5 B365 Good luck @The Equaliser

Today im taking Fritz Cressy first set over 12.5 games at Unibet 2.4 odds. For me its more like 50% to see TieBreaker in first, pure Value.

Hanibal Barca 3.45

330 Newcastle Solent getaway 16/1 pp win or ew

?

A couple of winners last week including the Nap. We have action most Sunday's now between now and the end of August and there are 3 more races at Casterton in the early hours of the morning. Probably my favourite jumps track in Oz because I love the hedge fences they have their and well worth checking out the steeplechase race if you don't usually watch the tips and just look at the result. Race 1 As usual we start with the maiden hurdle and I do like the look of Hakuna Matata. She was 2nd here on the first hurdles start this prep and the winner Onset has boosted the form since as has the 3rd Dubawi Prince. A couple of weeks after that she went to Hamilton and tried to make all, but wasn't able to see it out and was beaten by Fort Charles who ran well last week. They look two really solid 2nd places in the context of this race and I think she can get a deserved hurdles success. Cappellani has certainly improved for his first hurdles start in Australia when he was behind Hakuna Matata in 5th place over course and distance. He was then 3rd at Hamilton behind Dubawi Prince and then 3rd last week behind Mighty Oasis when he was doing his best work late and was only beaten a couple of lengths. That suggests stepping back up to this trip should suit and he is certainly a danger. Gravistas ran OK at Sale and has place claims on his 3rd at Hamilton the start before. The other one to mention is good old Zedstar who has had 10 starts over jumps now for 4 2nds and 4 3rds. He was disappointing on his debut over fences at Hamilton and wasn't great on the flat at Geelong last week. He will surely win a maiden hurdle at some point, but he's clearly a frustrating horse. I think the price on Hakuna Matata is too big and she makes plenty of appeal. Hakuna Matata 2pts @ 3/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Coral and Ladbrokes Race 2 Tamarack was 2nd in the Australian Hurdle last time, but I'm not sure the strength of that race is that good behind the very good winner Saunter Boy. He ran over course and distance before that and was beaten 7L into 3rd place. I certainly think he's a possible winner, but I am going to look elsewhere. Cheners was 2nd over fences last time and was just beaten by Runaway. He does tend to run his race, but he has won just twice in 27 jumps starts so as much as he has place claims in a race like this I'm not sure he is going to win. Onset has done us well this season having won twice when we have been on including last time at Sale. The other win was when she beat Hakuna Matata over course and distance. I was impressed with her win last time and although she wasn't quite as good in the two runs in between those two wins she can win a race like this. She beat Yulong Rising last time, but I can't see the form being reversed although it was that one's first jumps run so he could build on it. The most likely winner for me though is Tolemac who has done very well over hurdles this prep. He was just in front of Onset at Warrnambool when 2nd and he was 2nd over course and distance when just getting caught late on. Mighty Oasis was 2nd to him at Hamilton and obviously he franked the form last week. He goes into handicaps for the first time, but he has a good chance of making it a winning one. So Tolemac is the main bet, but I will have a saver on Onset as well. Tolemac 2pts @ 7/5 with Bet365 Onset 0.5pts @ 4/1 with everyone Race 3 Elvison was so impressive when bolting up over course and distance last month that I have to be with him here. Historic was 25L back in 2nd and he reposes here having followed that run up with a win, but I can't see him reversing form if Elvison is in top form. Elvison ran on the 7 day back up in the Australian Chase, but his trainer said before the race that he was only running him there because it was a small field that wasn't very strong. He ran well enough to finish 2nd to his stablemate Britannicus and the month off will have done him good no doubt. He jumped so well over the hedge fences and that course form could well prove crucial here. Police Camp has come out which is a shame as it means Elvison is odds on now. Police Camp won a trial at Warrnambool on Tuesday and in that trial he beat Te Kahu who is going to be making his Australian debut here. In New Zealand he won 3 times over fences including over 6200m on his last start in October. Now he has won over 3500m, but when watching that trial he seemed to lack a bit of toe and even though this is 3800m I just wonder if he is going to come into his own when seeing a real test of stamina. He is with the right training team with Maher & Eustace so I certainly respect him, but I think Elvison can add to his course and distance win last month and even though he's odds on I think he still offers value at 8/11. Elvison 3pts @ 8/11 with William Hill, Coral and Ladbrokes

Just a little confused over your earlier remarks about most races having bunched up ratings in relation to this race. It seems to me that you would quite usually write something like the top two are well clear of the rest so I'll have x points etc on the selections. What I am trying to say is that it looks from my point of view that the top two in this race are well clear of the rest so I don't understand why you were hesitant in putting them up earlier?

4.02 compiegne sibilla 40/1 £5 e/w bet365 4.38 newcatle zip 12/1 £5 e/w bet365

Some stats rating to bookings markets. I've added Portugal to the mix here given it's higher average. League Games Yellow Red Av points Av. cards Points/card Fouls pg Fouls/Tackles Pen pg Refs used Portugal 306 1740 120 66.67 6.08 10.97 29.93 0.99 0.35 25 Spain 380 1897 92 55.97 5.23 10.69 26.48 0.85 0.35 20 Italy 380 1696 93 50.75 4.71 10.78 26.68 0.88 0.37 45 France 380 1429 103 44.38 4.03 11.01 23.43 0.69 0.32 26 EPL 380 1299 43 37.01 3.53 10.48 20.23 0.62 0.27 22 Germany 306 1055 24 36.44 3.53 10.33 23.78 0.74 0.28 24 Total 1826 8061 451 50.32 4.66 10.71 25.09 0.80 0.32 27.00 Nothing that really surprises me in the points averages or the rankings. France has a higher ratio of reds to yellows hence the highest points per card number. I was quite surprised by how many different refs got a game in Italy! Not surprising that the top 3 leagues have the most fouls per game and highest fouls/tackles ratio. (Those numbers will be slightly off as the data had 1 game missing in both Germany and Portugal.) In terms of real world betting observations, as I only ever sell bookings where the price is over 50 I haven't had many bets in France, Germany or England. For the top 3 my historical numbers look like this (not just last season). Spain: 256 bets (140 wins and 116) losses, 69 points loss (biggest ever loss 98 points) - average sell price = 59.05 Thoughts - biggest sample size, slight overall loss (less than the single biggest loss), virtually break even so far, might as well carry on and see if it improves (still a small sample in the grand scheme of things) Italy: 162 bets (99 wins and 63 losses), 542 points profit (biggest ever loss 81 points) - average sell price = 56.52 Thoughts - carry on, obviously! Portugal: 24 bets (11 wins and 13 losses), 153 points loss (biggest ever loss 77 points) - average sell price = 67.79 Thoughts - carry on for now as it's such a small sample size. Not that many games get priced up in this league anyway. I suppose I could work out a "magic number" for France/Germany/England e.g. where the price is at least x% higher than the league average but I'm not sure it's worth the effort (bookings overall is only a marginally profitable market). Maybe something to paper trade for a while come the new season.

Semi final night SF1: Result: 2-4-1 (Romeo Magico - Mickys Barrett - Savana Beau) SF2: Result: 2-6-1 (Kildare - Priceless Jet - Hello Hammond)