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A very good morning all. Presuming this is the thread for 5th January and it's great that hopefully the racing will go ahead today as planned. Finding winners will not I feel be easy and rest assured non runners and rule 4 deductions may well also play a part in proceedings (that is if you manage to get a winner). Not the most confident by any means but here are my selections for today: Plumpton 1.35 GAME COLOURS e/w @ 8/1 (Will Hill) 3 places Plumpton 2.05 KILBARRY HILL e/w @ 7/1 (Unibet) 2 places Plumpton 3.50 SNAPIUS e/w @ 9/2 (Paddy Power) 3 places Chepstow 2.55 NEW FOUND FAME e/w @ 12/1 (Skybet) 4 places Remember each way places may change with non runners. Already advised yesterday (Lawlor's Of Naas Novice Hurdle) Naas 1.55 SPASIBA e/w @ 50/1 (B365) 3 places Best of luck everyone who plays.

See Plumpton has now just gone, what are these courses playing at. If there is any doubt the meeting should just be called off full stop. This messing about is so frustrating for lots of punters, myself definitely included !!

As has been suggested, this looks very much like a two-horse race and so the plus money on Morikawa appeals. He's 2.37 on the exchanges and with only a shot to make up that looks a fair wager to me.

I very rarely bet on Sundays as take a day off to do something different and recharge .. but agree that late abandonments are a pain after doing the work.

AS Roma - Lazio Roma I don't understand the odds, AS is favorite at 2,50 , this is NOT a home game since both clubs use the same stadium, Lazio is 4th while AS is 10th, and Lazio has +8 goal differential while AS is 0 goal differential , Lazio should be favorite for sure not underdog at 3.00

Lost Month -£80 It would be at this point if i was using real money that i would be taking a break and looking back over my notes to review my tactics 😁

Last round decent lead for 2 of them, surely he'll get 1 of the 2, think matsuyama is best return. Not home and hosed but near enough.

I always like to review my P+L at the end of each year 9th year in a row of profits Mostly driven by Price boosts £2,000, Lucky 15s £1,000 and Free Bets £1,000 In effect all my profit is driven by bookmaker offers, my "system" bets have shown a loss

Agree. I don't trust Kastkina at the best of times, but even more so with a big tournament around the corner. She might win of course, but even then dropping a set would not surprise me at all.

It looks like a trap to me.. My first instinct was Gadecki wins the match outright.. I wasn't super impressed with Kasatkina form so far, and I feel like she could easily dump the match to rest before a grandslam, Gadecki is a player that I like to back, but dissapointed last time doing so.

Daria Kasatkina to beat Olivia Gadecki 2-0 at 1.83 with Bet365 This should be easy for Kasatkina. She did lose against the rising start Kudermetova, but Gadecki has nowhere near as power and accuracy, and Kasatkina has basically made a career out of beating lower class opponents easily. With Gadecki losing to both Podoroska and Boulter 0-2, this should be the same.

Won Profit +£55 Month -£25

Result: Katate Dori 1st. Won £25 January profit to date £40

A good offer from Dragonbet. They are a welsh based outfit so make good offers on Welsh events ! They offer money back as a free bet if second on all races at Welsh courses. You need to be selective but there are some excellent bets today. 12.45 NOWMELAD 10/11. 2nd favourite is 6/5 with the rest 14/1 and above. So if it doesn't win it is highly likely that it will finished 2nd. 1.15 CLONDAW GENERAL 8/11. 2nd favourite 11/8 with the rest at 10/1, 50/1, 100/1, 100/1. 2.20 GYENYAME 9/4. A more competitive race but only 5 runners so a fair chance it will come 2nd if it doesn't win.

Chepstoe 12.15 £20 Katate Dori @5/4 Skybet

One I like in the Anytime Touchdown Scorer market is: Sam LaPorta (Detroit Lions) 2.62 Bet365 As rightly pointed out by @fd1972uk a very trappy gameweek to have much involvement with. A lot of teams resting players for a variety of reasons, be it to rest players for the playoffs or lower teams resting key players to improve their draft position.

As Cagnes Sur Mer not appealing to me either today, have decided to load the gun with another bullet for the Chepstow 2.55 (providing it goes ahead), win only: Chepstow 2.55 VALENS BRUYEE @ 15/2 (rev. f/cst with New Found Fame) Too much of a danger to not include but fitness a real question mark (pulled up twice in last three runs). On a fair mark if fit enough to do itself justice today.

-£2.80 MTD - £28.44

Coco Gauff to beat Iga Swiatek at 2.30 with Unibet Come on Coco with her improved forehand and Igas game not looking sharp enough early season.

Won, SP 11/10 Monthly profit £3

Excellent picks

Ashlyn Krueger to beat Katerina Siniakova at 1.80 with Bet365 Siniakova was very slow off the blocks in the previous round, but Bucsa folded spectacularly and allowed the Czech to get a good scoreline to look at. Krueger has way more match practice in this season and looked legit against Tomljanovic. 1.66 would be my odds.

One bet for me tonight and that's Bateman at 12/5 for Baltimore. 21% perceived edge and appealing at anything over 2/1. Chucked a couple of quid at 12/1 1st TD and 20/1 the brace. Stuck him in a boosted BB with Henry TD and Jackson to chuck for at least 2, pays 9.12. Would probably have wasted a quid on the hat trick if I could get the 125/1 offered by 365.

😆 Main event picks here!

Lol, they are still a thing mate. I prefer my selections not to get involved in such fisticuffs mind.

Happy New Year! First tournament of 2025 is PGA Sentry. The below have made the shortlist for this week - * Corey Conners 45/1 * Wyndham Clark 59/1 * Adam Scott 64/1 * Max Homa 69/1 * Brian Harmen 79/1 * Nick Dunlap 89/1 * Denny McCarthy 99/1 * Patton Kizzire 299/1 All prices Betfair Dutching all selections is around 8.5/1 Will review top 10 prices between today and tomorrow Good luck on your bets this week!

We roll on to Monday 🤞

Can't grumble. Finished with a profit that was about 72% of the highpoint that I seemed to reach several times during the year then fall back from. Given how far down I was early in the year and the fact that, in June, I fell from peak profit back into the red for a while, I'm happy it's a decent year. Best I can do if they won't let me spread bet! On the scorer system year it's been decent: Football a modest profit again which will hopefully improve with the tweaks made for this year (less and better bets being the idea) NFL just about in front as the regular season draws to a close. Enjoyed the experiment and will go again next year. Rugby League the best performance of all. Won't be changing much for the new season and see if it was a flash in the pan. Bet Builders worked well so carrying on with the same approach to those (anchored around goalscorers). Some big negative ROI but nothing that cost me much or there were too many bets on. Rugby Union not on my radar so much, can't seem to make 2+ goalscorers pay, more or less broke even on first goalscorers but lost as much on win bets as I won on each way. Bets placed in error (should've gone to Vision Express) and an abandoned attempt at trading anytimes in play were two of the worst offenders.

And in the later games. Carter 5/4 (Arizona) and Guerendo 17/10 (San Francisco) Done them doubled at 5/1 with a money back BB offer.

Time for my annual review Overall a good year with a profit making it 10 years in a row. It was my second most profitable year. My ROI (excluding free bets) was 6% which I am more than happy with. An excellent start to the year but a poor ending. Profits in 7 of the first 8 months and losses in 3 of the last 4 months. July was my best month, September was my worst. September is one of the 3 months that overall I have lost money in over the last 10 years. November is the worst month. April is the best. The revelation for me last year was my introduction to speed figures (thanks to @Zilzalian and @Trotter for pointing me in this direction). The flat speed figures generated my biggest proft this year. I am certainly looking forward to see if they continue to be as successful this summer. Second was the use of free bets, the majority with BETMGM (sadly that account is now closed). Third was my AW selections anf fourth were my player goal minute spread bets (courtest of @harry_rag, again sadly that account is now closed). My biggest investment was on my AW selections which generated a ROI of 9%. My second biggest investment was on price boosts but these only generated a return of £47 from an investment of almost £7k. My biggest loss was on "mug" bets which I placed in attempt to keep my accounts open. These bets only represented a small amount of the profits that I have generated from these accounts. My biggest profits came from racing 90%. I'm glad to see I made a profit from football but this was all down to the spread bets. All my other football bets made a profit of £1.54 ! I made a small loss on all other sports with tennis and golf being the main culprits, maybe I should leave them alone, even with price boosts. So my aim for this year is :- 1. Concentrate on my turf speed figures and AW systems. 2. Continue to utilise accounts where free bets are available. 3. Find an optimum stategy for bet builders. 4. Ignore all "minor" sports unless there is an obvious advantage.

I think you're massively over thinking it. Surely the cashout offer is just telling you how much you have to stake in the opposite direction to get the same return regardless of the outcome. It's not an "offer" as such, they're just doing the maths for you. You back (or lay) your initial selection and you risk x to win y. The cashout amount is what you need to lay (or back) at the current best available prices to win (or lose) the same amount regardless of the outcome. If you accept it you're placing a second bet in the opposite direction so that you win or lose the same amount. You take the offer and your interest in proceedings is over as the result is academic. Otherwise you let your original bet run. (That's without getting into the more complicated are of partial cashout.) It's simple maths that you could do yourself (though it's easier if there's enough available for you to lay off all of your bet at the same price). Simple example, £10 at 6 to win £50. The price drops to 3, you lay £20 to risk £40. You make a tenner whatever the result. My assumption is that the cashout offer in that circumstance would mirror that calculation and just be £20 for £10 profit.

I quite like Gracheva at the odds. She's streaky and whilst Linette is a good player, she tends to be solid rather than spectacular and so a good performance always has the chance to catch her out. About the others, Kenin still seems to be in a bit of a funk, but if anything can reinvigorate her then this trip should do it with all the positive memories of winning one of the big titles here. As for Passaro, I wouldn't go anywhere near that match, Any result is possible between two players who are - if I want to be diplomatic - wildly inconsistent.

Just the one tomorrow... 1440 Plumpton Dom Of Mary 5/1 3pt win 3pts staked.

Interesting angle. A quick look does suggest that there's some evidence of home advantage in the games between these teams as I make it that the home team is 8-3-1 over the last 12 Serie A meetings! Also, it's Roma's form away from home that looks most patchy, though Lazio do have the better home form as well. I assume there's some element of home advantage (dressing room allocation, ticket allocations) though no doubt less than usual. Not contradicting the bet but, should anyone be inclined to follow, might be worth a closer look before pulling the trigger, especially if there's any key team news.

Decent small offer on SBK, Liverpoll / Man U 50% correct score boost £5

Naas 1.55 Jasmin De Vaux 7-4 Bet365

HIBERNIAN over 2.5 goals to win both halves no 16.5 +50% £5 FULHAM over 2.5 goals under 5,5 goals 3.10 + 25% £10

Result Wolverhampton (AW) 18:50 Katate Dori.... 1st 5/4F Todays Profit = +12.5 pts Current Years Profit 2025 = +40.4 pts Bank = +2008.46 pts.  Profit = +1908.46 pts. Current Winning Run =3

Both WON. I don't bet on Sundays as take a day off.

2.30 Naas@ Fairyland Opera @ 14/1 E/W (Bert365)

At its simplest you just need to list your bets, the stake, the return and the profit/loss (return - stake). Sum them all and divide the total p/l by the stake and that’s your ROI.

Day 104 +£495 2.30 Nass Teds Corner 150/1 £10 e/w bet365 🤞

Lulu maybe.

Reilly Opelka/Jiri Lehecka over 26.5 games at 2.25 with Unibet Shouldn't be any major issues to get this to go in. All it takes is a third set.

Huge wins today thanks to Darrans tips and my bet won too! 93rd minute equaliser only to go Truro's way in the 7th min of 4 mins of injury time!

WV16:20 Desiderata 51 365

Don't know how you guys feel about playing the teams who have at least something to play for regarding potential survival on the last weekend , these five teams are either " In the hunt or On the bubble " so not already qualified or been eliminated. Falcons / Broncos / Buccs / Dolphins / Bengals , these five have between 11% to 99% chance of qualifying providing they win. Best price 5.58 for the acca with Sportsbook. There's probably a hiccup in there somewhere but at least you know they'll be playing with intensity and a desire to win. https://www.nfl.com/standings/playoff-picture https://www.espn.co.uk/nfl/injuries

Horsham v Carshalton Horsham have really found their form again having won 4 on the bounce since losing 3-1 to Dartford when we took them on. Last Saturday they put 6 past Potters Bar and then on New Years Day they had a fantastic result when beating top of the table Dover 2-1. I rate them a strong bet to beat a Carshalton side who are always better at home than they are away. They have lost their last 3 games and have even lost their last 2 home games which is unusual for them. Horsham have only lost to Folkestone, Dover and Dartford at home and they have won their other 7 home league games. Gainsborough v York Not much appeals in the Trophy, but I did think Gainsborough were a sporting play. York haven't always been at their best on the road and I suspect it won't be a full 1st team for this game given the league title is the priority. Gainsborough have lost their last 3 league and possibly they are feeling the effects of the FA Cup run, but they have done very well in both cups this season. They will fancy their chances of pulling off another upset and with this not being Yorks priority then that helps their cause. Horsham 3pts @ 5/6 with Betfred and Bet365 (take up to 4/6) Gainsborough 1pt @ 13/2 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 4/1)

Gone for W.Clark 19/1 Betfair Ex

4.03S. Tathmeen. 12/1bet365. 5.35 S. Bomb Squad. 9/2bet365. 6.05 S. Fircombe Hall. 4/1 bet365. Reserves. 7.20 W. Reputation. 6/1 bet365. 8.20 W. Prince Ali. 22/1bet365.